Leafs - By the Numbers

[Critical13]

I thought it would be nice to have a place where we could discuss some of the non-traditional stats out there, on a game-by-game basis.

The goals of the thread:

• Develop a better understanding of where our team stands, including each individual player.
• Help us all keep up to date on various non-traditional stats.
• A judgement-free zone where we can all learn about different stats that are tracked, how to understand and use them to form opinions, with guidance from our more experienced members.

I will kick it off with a simple look at MoneyPucks team charts which analyze where a team stands in terms of expected goals for (xGF) and expected goals against (xGA).

As of Jan 27, 2021:

Higher on the chart means giving up more chances on the defensive side. Further to right means creating more chances offensively. We really want to be in the lower right hand quadrant. I expect us to finish much further to the right.

Click to read more...

 

[Mickey Marner]

Not enough games for most of these stats to have predictive value. After the first half of the season, they should be reasonably predictive of what will happen in the second half. And the second half should be reasonably predictive of the playoffs.

I don't see Winnipeg on that chart, but I assume they're in the bad quadrant covered by the Leafs information. Their record has out-performed their play IMO, but they will be adding Dubois, so maybe he'll offset some of their regression.

 

[zeke]

I was gonna wait until the break after the two edmonton games (10gms in) to start diving into the early numbers.

Suffice to say that the leafs have been bang on average at even strength, average on the PK, and elite on the PP (though not getting a lot of PP chances).

 

[Critical13]

Not enough games for most of these stats to have predictive value. After the first half of the season, they should be reasonably predictive of what will happen in the second half. And the second half should be reasonably predictive of the playoffs.

I don't see Winnipeg on that chart, but I assume they're in the bad quadrant covered by the Leafs information. Their record has out-performed their play IMO, but they will be adding Dubois, so maybe he'll offset some of their regression.

Yes, Winnipeg is behind the Leafs bubble, above and slightly to the right.

 

[ottomaddox]

I thought it would be nice to have a place where we could discuss some of the non-traditional stats out there, on a game-by-game basis.

The goals of the thread:

• Develop a better understanding of where our team stands, including each individual player.
• Help us all keep up to date on various non-traditional stats.
• A judgement-free zone where we can all learn about different stats that are tracked, how to understand and use them to form opinions, with guidance from our more experienced members.

I will kick it off with a simple look at MoneyPucks team charts which analyze where a team stands in terms of expected goals for (xGF) and expected goals against (xGA).

As of Jan 27, 2021:
View attachment 389005

Higher on the chart means giving up more chances on the defensive side. Further to right means creating more chances offensively. We really want to be in the lower right hand quadrant. I expect us to finish much further to the right.

Did you make this? It needs a lot of refinement IMHO. Boring, Fun, etc. is hard to relate to.


Edit - sorry. Just being honest.

 

[Critical13]

Did you make this? It needs a lot of refinement IMHO. Boring, Fun, etc. is hard to relate to.


Edit - sorry. Just being honest.

I did not make it, you can find it here: MoneyPuck.com -About and How it Works

 

[Wafflewhipper]

I thought it would be nice to have a place where we could discuss some of the non-traditional stats out there, on a game-by-game basis.

The goals of the thread:

• Develop a better understanding of where our team stands, including each individual player.
• Help us all keep up to date on various non-traditional stats.
• A judgement-free zone where we can all learn about different stats that are tracked, how to understand and use them to form opinions, with guidance from our more experienced members.

I will kick it off with a simple look at MoneyPucks team charts which analyze where a team stands in terms of expected goals for (xGF) and expected goals against (xGA).

As of Jan 27, 2021:
View attachment 389005

Higher on the chart means giving up more chances on the defensive side. Further to right means creating more chances offensively. We really want to be in the lower right hand quadrant. I expect us to finish much further to the right.

Our third periods are our low shot period.We are seeing some management of risky play in the third i suppose and opponents are outshooting us significantly there. Needs to be tweeked.

 

[Zybalto]

Gonna stick to not being that interested in teams outside the division as we dont play them.

Current Rankings:

5v5 adjusted CF%

1. Montreal: 59.15
2. Toronto: 53.75
3. Calgary: 53.24
4. Winnipeg: 50.42
5. Edmonton: 46.19
6. Vancouver: 46.01
7. Ottawa: 43.50

5v5 adjusted xGF%

1. Montreal: 59.89
2. Calgary: 52.59
3. Edmonton: 51.40
4. Winnipeg: 49.92
5. Toronto: 49.74
6. Ottawa: 46.68
7. Vancouver: 43.40

Team Save% (All situations):

1. Calgary: 91.10
2. Winnipeg: 90.41
3. Toronto: 89.86
4. Montreal: 89.70
5. Edmonton: 89.30
6. Vancouver: 88.32
7. Ottawa: 86.01

PK Fewest Expected Goals/60:

1. Toronto: 5.77
2. Ottawa: 6.73
3. Vancouver: 7.22
4. Edmonton: 8.17
5. Calgary: 8.29
6. Montreal: 8.29
7. Winnipeg: 9.28

PP Expected Goals/60:

1. Toronto: 11.32
2. Edmonton: 7.55
3. Vancouver: 7.37
4. Calgary: 6.9
5. Montreal: 6.82
6. Ottawa: 6.71
7. Winnipeg: 6.42


Nice to see that save% come up after a tough start. Everything is pretty tight outside of needing to get better creating more quality chances 5v5. I'd like to see all the teams get some reps against each other before any really hard critiques though.

 

[Fogelhund]

This was from before last nights game.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Gonna stick to not being that interested in teams outside the division as we dont play them.

Current Rankings:

5v5 adjusted CF%

1. Montreal: 59.15
2. Toronto: 53.75
3. Calgary: 53.24
4. Winnipeg: 50.42
5. Edmonton: 46.19
6. Vancouver: 46.01
7. Ottawa: 43.50

5v5 adjusted xGF%

1. Montreal: 59.89
2. Calgary: 52.59
3. Edmonton: 51.40
4. Winnipeg: 49.92
5. Toronto: 49.74
6. Ottawa: 46.68
7. Vancouver: 43.40

Team Save% (All situations):

1. Calgary: 91.10
2. Winnipeg: 90.41
3. Toronto: 89.86
4. Montreal: 89.70
5. Edmonton: 89.30
6. Vancouver: 88.32
7. Ottawa: 86.01

PK Fewest Expected Goals/60:

1. Toronto: 5.77
2. Ottawa: 6.73
3. Vancouver: 7.22
4. Edmonton: 8.17
5. Calgary: 8.29
6. Montreal: 8.29
7. Winnipeg: 9.28

PP Expected Goals/60:

1. Toronto: 11.32
2. Edmonton: 7.55
3. Vancouver: 7.37
4. Calgary: 6.9
5. Montreal: 6.82
6. Ottawa: 6.71
7. Winnipeg: 6.42


Nice to see that save% come up after a tough start. Everything is pretty tight outside of needing to get better creating more quality chances 5v5. I'd like to see all the teams get some reps against each other before any really hard critiques though.

Thanks

 

[Bluelines]

I thought it would be nice to have a place where we could discuss some of the non-traditional stats out there, on a game-by-game basis.

The goals of the thread:

• Develop a better understanding of where our team stands, including each individual player.
• Help us all keep up to date on various non-traditional stats.
• A judgement-free zone where we can all learn about different stats that are tracked, how to understand and use them to form opinions, with guidance from our more experienced members.

I will kick it off with a simple look at MoneyPucks team charts which analyze where a team stands in terms of expected goals for (xGF) and expected goals against (xGA).

As of Jan 27, 2021:
View attachment 389005

Higher on the chart means giving up more chances on the defensive side. Further to right means creating more chances offensively. We really want to be in the lower right hand quadrant. I expect us to finish much further to the right.

Where we have less GF than against per 60, would this suggest that we are a worse team than our record indicates or these stats are useless?

I think we are not quite as good as our record indicates.....

 

[Critical13]

Where we have less GF than against per 60, would this suggest that we are a worse team than our record indicates or these stats are useless?

I think we are not quite as good as our record indicates.....

We haven't been great 5v5 for large stretches of the season so far. Our PP, and some opportunistic goals have won us a few games. I don't fully understand scoring effects, but the fact that we've led so often likely hurts our 5v5 GF% as well.

 

[Zybalto]

We haven't been great 5v5 for large stretches of the season so far. Our PP, and some opportunistic goals have won us a few games. I don't fully understand scoring effects, but the fact that we've led so often likely hurts our 5v5 GF% as well.

Its still so early though that one game can drastically change the numbers still.

If we roll the oilers tonight and Montreal takes down the Flames, we all of a sudden can be in 2nd place in the division for xGF%. Need more sample.

 

[Twine Tickler]

Gonna stick to not being that interested in teams outside the division as we dont play them.

I think this is how I am going to look at things this year as well. Obviously winning the cup is the ultimate goal for the club. But I would consider this year a success if they make it out of the division into the "conference finals". Its also hard to compare data from one division to the next best on quality of opponents, and games being postponed to COVID and being rescheduled in a condensed format. Comparing to the rest of the division is a far more accurate representation in my mind.

early thoughts on the data:

- I dont mind the 5v5 numbers. Obviously it looks like we dont have the lion share of CF%/60. but it is very marginal.

- special teams are ridiculous on both sides. likely to see some negative regression on those numbers. That said, we are the lowest in penalties drawn in the division, and are tied for the net lowest Penalties drawn/Penalties taken at -8

Team/PIM/Pen Drawn/Pen Taken/Net

Winnipeg /60/ 38/27/ +11
Calgary /66/26/19/ +7
Edmonton /60/29/26/ +3
Ottawa /90/40/39/ +1
Montreal /80/27/33/ -6
Toronto /81/26/39/ -8
Vancouver /133/42/50/ -8

And quite frankly, given how effective our PK has looked, I really don't care if the number of penalties/game goes up a little bit if it means we get more PP time. Simple fact is we have gotten Next to nopowerplay time, which can be a huge difference for us in any game. best example would be Vancouver I guess, had we been given 42 PP this year, our overall xGF would be substantially higher, even if it meant we had to kill their 50. The refs seem to hide the whistles against the Leafs for whatever reason. I am hopeful that Net Pen for vs Pen Against sees some positive regression, because that will likely offset the negative regression of overall PP%

 

[Notsince67]

The only important stat.
12 points in 8 games played. That is a running rate of 123 points in an 82 game season.
That is pretty damned good.

 

[BertCorbeau]

I think the biggest thing is that there isn't anything that sits as a big outlier that is a red flag.

In all likeliness the 5 on 5 play picks up to a normal level, while the PP may cool down a bit. Team defense and the PK should at the very least remain the same if not better with better goaltending from Freddie (outside of the first two games which is 25% of the season).

This matches the eye test too.

 

[Critical13]

It gives me hope to see that the top pairings in xGA/60 include other good pairings. Don't want to see Rielly-Brodie there, but if Werenski-Jones are there too, it reminds me to give it more time. I imagine all 5 of those pairing also see very tough competition.

 

[weems]

I think it says two things.

1.) We're starting to learn how to win hockey games while not playing your best hockey
2.) This division is extremely weak and we should dominate

I would be down for a mid season trade because this will probably be our best shot to win a cup if you factor in difficulty of opposition.

 

[Zybalto]

Just to drive some people a little crazy:

Rielly/Brodie so far this year:
OZ faceoffs%: 53.76
CF% 48.72
xGF% 39.90
GF%: 38.32

Rielly/Ceci last year:
OZ faceoffs%: 47.28
CF% 50.77
xGF% 50.03
GF%: 51.11

 

[IPS]

Just to drive some people a little crazy:

Rielly/Brodie so far this year:
OZ faceoffs%: 53.76
CF% 48.72
xGF% 39.90
GF%: 38.32

Rielly/Ceci last year:
OZ faceoffs%: 47.28
CF% 50.77
xGF% 50.03
GF%: 51.11

Doesn't that kind of poke a hole in those stats though? Brodie is 5x the defensemen Ceci is.

 

[Zybalto]

Doesn't that kind of poke a hole in those stats though? Brodie is 5x the defensemen Ceci is.

What it does is show that its early and those numbers are going to rebound combined with the fact Ceci was MUCH better than his reputation suggested...which he was.

I'm really not too worried about Rielly/ Brodie quite yet. Kinda threw those numbers up as a troll.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I like these equally interesting and infuriating.

 

[Critical13]

I like these equally interesting and infuriating.

He doesn't embellish it like many others do.

 

[tmlms13]

Thread reeks of O'Dog vs Jonas

Team Eye Test vs Team Corsi

 

[Doublerum1975]

We really haven't dominated a lot of games or have been dominated just getting wins feels like a really weird season so far