News Article: Leafs are now identifiable.

[WTFMAN99]

The biggest defensive upgrades this year are simply personnel ones.

1. Brodie has drastically upgraded our top pair's defensive ability.
2. Getting rid of Kappy and AJ has ended up turning what was a very weak defensive 3rd line into an excellent defensive 3rd line.

Brodie and Bogosian are upgrades on Ceci and Barrie.

Johnsson and Kapanen wanted to shirk defensive responsibilities for points on the 3rd line, our bottom 6 know their responsibilities.

JT seems to be adapting a bit still to defensive responsibilities but production on paper isn't bad, goal scoring has dropped off a bit but it should stablize later on.

Goaltending has been a big improvement, unimaginable a year ago we'd be "okay" about Hutchinson starting but we have a foundation to fall back on.

When healthy, the trio of additions in Thornton, Simmonds and Bogosian has brought enough size to the line up to give notice too.

Bogosian got Nurse the hell away from Hutchinson last night.

Simmonds beat the crap out of anyone he fought.

You know Joe has it in him if need be.

 

[KitchenSink]

OK, TO has a new identity but what is it, a team that relies heavily on 6 players, the top 4 forwards, Rielly and goaltending. That's the same identity TO has had for about 4 years now.

The d results are better what was achieved in the immediate past but that's mostly because the goaltending is much better this year.


Shot attempts/60: 55.68 vs 53.67. I do not think that two less shot-attempts every four periods is really going to make a huge difference in goalie performance.

Shots/60: 30.73 vs 28.98 – This year’s Leafs are preventing just over one shot extra per game.

Expected Goals/ 60: 2.33 vs 2.25. If we could take luck out of the equation and work with a large enough sample size, the Leafs this year vs last year would be pretty the same defensively. They would be expected to allow 0.08 less goals this season for roughly every four periods of hockey.

Scoring Chances / 60: 27.50 vs 26.54 – the supposedly great new defense is allowing less than one less scoring chances every four periods or so.

Dangerous Chances / 60: 11.14 vs 10.6 – the narrative is that this version of the Leafs is allowing a lot less chances off the rush – but assuming that those are getting picked up in the dangerous chances category, this simply isn’t true.

Toronto Maple Leafs Success Isn’t Because of Good Defense

Better goaltending makes TO better, not playing Boston, TB or Florida regularly also makes TO better. Is TO better, it's hard to say but TO has done well against the west for years, Ottawa is Ottawa and Montreal, who knows what's going on there.

TO's results have exceeded the metrics which has lead to many of the fancy stat experts to wonder why TO's results are so out of line with the metrics, Colorado won their division one year even tho their metrics didn't support their success. The next year Colorado didn't come close to matching that success.

TO's identity is still basically it can outscore it's problems and that has been made easier this year by superior goaltending.

It may appear like not much of a difference but due to the level of parity in the league those improvements in defence are actually pretty impressive. I'm not a huge stats guru so bear with me. I'm using stats I found on natural stattrick, regular season, 5v5. I don't know where you got your numbers from because they aren't the same as I'm seeing. But anyways here we go.

Shot Attempts Against/60 55.5 (13th) -> 53.67. This would rank as 11th best last year, just behind LA.

SA/60 30.82 (18th) -> 28.98. This would rank as 7th best last year, just behind Carolina.

xGA/60 2.32 (17th) -> 2.25. This would rank as 14th best last year, just behind Nashville. Not as impressive of an improvement. I think this shows how the strong goaltending the leafs are getting this year is helping a lot.

Scoring Chances Against/60 26.71 (17th) -> 26.54. This would still have them at 17th best last year. Similar stat to xGA/60 imo.

HDCA/60 11.06 (21st) -> 10.6. This would rank as 11th best last year, behind St Louis. Based on watching the games I actually agree with you that the leafs are still giving up a fair amount or rush chances. Where I think they have improved a lot is blocking out the area in front of the net and preventing rebounds. (Thanks Brodie, Muzzin, Holl, Bogosian).

I agree that not having to play Tampa and Boston regularly has resulted in an inflated record for the leafs and they are definitely getting better goaltending. I mean, who would have thought Hutch would shut out edm this year for the leafs. But I also think that improved defence has helped the goalies out a bit. And as you have shown they have improved their defence just about across the board! Since defence and goaltending was the area of concern with the leafs I call this a win and a much improved team.

Just a small note, why do you keep saying "every 4 periods or so" when talking about stats that are /60? Isn't /60 supposed to represent 1 game or 3 20 minute periods?

 

[hobarth]

I personally had hoped that TO is better, better goaltending should always mean better but when the metrics don't meet the results then we know that the results are circumstantial as opposed to real, is TO better against TB, Wash., Boston and other such teams that once out of the covid bubble TO will have to overcome to meet our expectations. Since TO is exceeding some stats from say last year that is good but would those results be as convincing or real against those same teams that TO has traditionally had to overcome to meet our expectations.

I would say that TO's improvements are because of weaker opposition than they faced last year but what is even more disappointing is that TO's results aren't more significantly better considering who they play against.

The question is, is TO as truly superior against teams from the East and Central divisions? TO results might seem better because of it's competition and other team's results might not be as resoundingly good because of their competition, Wash., Boston, NYI and Philly having to play each other what 8 times this year should make their results less outstanding which doesn't necessarily mean their team worse, it would simply mean they face stiffer comp.

Is TO's even GA improvement real, is it easier for TO to improve it's GA by not having to play TB/Boston, I think we all know the answer to that.

TO's new identity, bubblelicious.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I personally had hoped that TO is better, better goaltending should always mean better but when the metrics don't meet the results then we know that the results are circumstantial as opposed to real, is TO better against TB, Wash., Boston and other such teams that once out of the covid bubble TO will have to overcome to meet our expectations. Since TO is exceeding some stats from say last year that is good but would those results be as convincing or real against those same teams that TO has traditionally had to overcome to meet our expectations.

I would say that TO's improvements are because of weaker opposition than they faced last year but what is even more disappointing is that TO's results aren't more significantly better considering who they play against.

The question is, is TO as truly superior against teams from the East and Central divisions? TO results might seem better because of it's competition and other team's results might not be as resoundingly good because of their competition, Wash., Boston, NYI and Philly having to play each other what 8 times this year should make their results less outstanding which doesn't necessarily mean their team worse, it would simply mean they face stiffer comp.

Is TO's even GA improvement real, is it easier for TO to improve it's GA by not having to play TB/Boston, I think we all know the answer to that.

TO's new identity, bubblelicious.

Didn't realize Buffalo, Detroit, San Jose, Anaheim and other garbage teams don't exist to beat up on in other divisions.

I think people just love being miserable.

 

[hobarth]

Didn't realize Buffalo, Detroit, San Jose, Anaheim and other garbage teams don't exist to beat up on in other divisions.

I think people just love being miserable.

I wondering if all of TO's opposition in the Cdn. division are as weak as the teams you mentioned, all of them, what we do know from last year is they all would've struggled to even make the playoffs and that includes TO towards the end of the year. A perfect example is Edmonton, we know Barrie but he's #1 d pairing quality with Edmonton who it appears is the next best team to TO in the Cdn. division?

 

[WTFMAN99]

I wondering if all of TO's opposition in the Cdn. division are as weak as the teams you mentioned, all of them, what we do know from last year is they all would've struggled to even make the playoffs and that includes TO towards the end of the year. A perfect example is Edmonton, we know Barrie but he's #1 d pairing quality with Edmonton who it appears is the next best team to TO in the Cdn. division?

Calgary took the runner up Dallas stars to the brink
Vancouver knocked out the previous cup winner St.Louis Blues

Only thing you can do is play the games.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

I personally had hoped that TO is better, better goaltending should always mean better but when the metrics don't meet the results then we know that the results are circumstantial as opposed to real, is TO better against TB, Wash., Boston and other such teams that once out of the covid bubble TO will have to overcome to meet our expectations. Since TO is exceeding some stats from say last year that is good but would those results be as convincing or real against those same teams that TO has traditionally had to overcome to meet our expectations.

I would say that TO's improvements are because of weaker opposition than they faced last year but what is even more disappointing is that TO's results aren't more significantly better considering who they play against.

The question is, is TO as truly superior against teams from the East and Central divisions? TO results might seem better because of it's competition and other team's results might not be as resoundingly good because of their competition, Wash., Boston, NYI and Philly having to play each other what 8 times this year should make their results less outstanding which doesn't necessarily mean their team worse, it would simply mean they face stiffer comp.

Is TO's even GA improvement real, is it easier for TO to improve it's GA by not having to play TB/Boston, I think we all know the answer to that.

TO's new identity, bubblelicious.

Connor Mcovid shut down,Droughtsaitl shut down. A top offense in the league. Second best offense in our divisin now, shut down. We can shut down anybody.Boston just got smoked bad for 13 goals in two games against the Rangers. The Rangers. Boston ain’t good Son. They are on their way down. Go criticize the other teams. You don’t make any sense here.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

I wondering if all of TO's opposition in the Cdn. division are as weak as the teams you mentioned, all of them, what we do know from last year is they all would've struggled to even make the playoffs and that includes TO towards the end of the year. A perfect example is Edmonton, we know Barrie but he's #1 d pairing quality with Edmonton who it appears is the next best team to TO in the Cdn. division?

Best team in the League baby. You don’t comprehend defense. You probably never seen it before

 

[KitchenSink]

I personally had hoped that TO is better, better goaltending should always mean better but when the metrics don't meet the results then we know that the results are circumstantial as opposed to real, is TO better against TB, Wash., Boston and other such teams that once out of the covid bubble TO will have to overcome to meet our expectations. Since TO is exceeding some stats from say last year that is good but would those results be as convincing or real against those same teams that TO has traditionally had to overcome to meet our expectations.

I would say that TO's improvements are because of weaker opposition than they faced last year but what is even more disappointing is that TO's results aren't more significantly better considering who they play against.

The question is, is TO as truly superior against teams from the East and Central divisions? TO results might seem better because of it's competition and other team's results might not be as resoundingly good because of their competition, Wash., Boston, NYI and Philly having to play each other what 8 times this year should make their results less outstanding which doesn't necessarily mean their team worse, it would simply mean they face stiffer comp.

Is TO's even GA improvement real, is it easier for TO to improve it's GA by not having to play TB/Boston, I think we all know the answer to that.

TO's new identity, bubblelicious.

I see where you're coming from and you might be 100% right. There is no definite way to know unless the Leafs get the opportunity to play them in the playoffs.

Just a thought though. Wasn't the narrative about the Canadian Division that they all suck defensively but are not bad to pretty good offensively? Wouldn't that result in the leafs having great offensive numbers but also bad defensive numbers?

The areas that were of concern for the leafs after last season were goaltending, defence, physical compete, and consistency. From what I can tell the leafs are doing a better job of not rolling over when teams try to be physical with them. And in the past the leafs always found ways to lose to bad teams. They are starting to play more consistently as well, with the exception of maybe nylander and Tavares imo.

I don't think they are the best team in the league like their record suggests. But I do think they are an improved team that has matured and is more rounded out. They were already a pretty good team, just inconsistent and immature at times. Now they are better, so where does that put them in the league? It's tough to say this year

 

[Wafflewhipper]

OK, TO has a new identity but what is it, a team that relies heavily on 6 players, the top 4 forwards, Rielly and goaltending. That's the same identity TO has had for about 4 years now.

The d results are better what was achieved in the immediate past but that's mostly because the goaltending is much better this year.


Shot attempts/60: 55.68 vs 53.67. I do not think that two less shot-attempts every four periods is really going to make a huge difference in goalie performance.

Shots/60: 30.73 vs 28.98 – This year’s Leafs are preventing just over one shot extra per game.

Expected Goals/ 60: 2.33 vs 2.25. If we could take luck out of the equation and work with a large enough sample size, the Leafs this year vs last year would be pretty the same defensively. They would be expected to allow 0.08 less goals this season for roughly every four periods of hockey.

Scoring Chances / 60: 27.50 vs 26.54 – the supposedly great new defense is allowing less than one less scoring chances every four periods or so.

Dangerous Chances / 60: 11.14 vs 10.6 – the narrative is that this version of the Leafs is allowing a lot less chances off the rush – but assuming that those are getting picked up in the dangerous chances category, this simply isn’t true.

Toronto Maple Leafs Success Isn’t Because of Good Defense

Better goaltending makes TO better, not playing Boston, TB or Florida regularly also makes TO better. Is TO better, it's hard to say but TO has done well against the west for years, Ottawa is Ottawa and Montreal, who knows what's going on there.

TO's results have exceeded the metrics which has lead to many of the fancy stat experts to wonder why TO's results are so out of line with the metrics, Colorado won their division one year even tho their metrics didn't support their success. The next year Colorado didn't come close to matching that success.

TO's identity is still basically it can outscore it's problems and that has been made easier this year by superior goaltending.

If you want a team that is carried by goaltending go watch Tampa Bay. They rely on their keeper way to much. Book it we are better than them in many ways already.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

I see where you're coming from and you might be 100% right. There is no definite way to know unless the Leafs get the opportunity to play them in the playoffs.

Just a thought though. Wasn't the narrative about the Canadian Division that they all suck defensively but are not bad to pretty good offensively? Wouldn't that result in the leafs having great offensive numbers but also bad defensive numbers?

The areas that were of concern for the leafs after last season were goaltending, defence, physical compete, and consistency. From what I can tell the leafs are doing a better job of not rolling over when teams try to be physical with them. And in the past the leafs always found ways to lose to bad teams. They are starting to play more consistently as well, with the exception of maybe nylander and Tavares imo.

I don't think they are the best team in the league like their record suggests. But I do think they are an improved team that has matured and is more rounded out. They were already a pretty good team, just inconsistent and immature at times. Now they are better, so where does that put them in the league? It's tough to say this year

How can he be possibly 100% right and no definite way to know until the playoffs. I’ll say it for you. B.S is B.S.

 

[KitchenSink]

How can he be possibly 100% right and no definite way to know until the playoffs. I’ll say it for you. B.S is B.S.

Lol. It's possible to be right about something but not be able to confirm it until at a later date

 

[hobarth]

Calgary took the runner up Dallas stars to the brink
Vancouver knocked out the previous cup winner St.Louis Blues

Only thing you can do is play the games.

Exactly, TB had put up a near historic season in almost every category 3 years ago but in the playoffs Columbus beat them in the 1st round, things happen. One of the things that happened was that TB learned a valuable lesson, they were a different team in the next year's playoffs like more physical not just bigger.

 

[Auston Marlander]

The biggest defensive upgrades this year are simply personnel ones.

1. Brodie has drastically upgraded our top pair's defensive ability.
2. Getting rid of Kappy and AJ has ended up turning what was a very weak defensive 3rd line into an excellent defensive 3rd line.

And not having Ceci and Marincin on the ice is addition by subtraction.

 

[Sypher04]

People need to stop with this idea that our record is inflated because we don't play Tampa & Boston regularly this year.
It's not that it's not a fair point. The problem is that it's not remotely relevant.
We are an excellent team and Tampa & Boston are benefitting just as much from not playing us.

 

[mallory67]

People need to stop with this idea that our record is inflated because we don't play Tampa & Boston regularly this year.
It's not that it's not a fair point. The problem is that it's not remotely relevant.
We are an excellent team and Tampa & Boston are benefitting just as much from not playing us.

We don't know we can beat Tampa/Boston and we can't prove it by playing a mixed bag of non-contender Canadian teams.
The real contenders are across the border. While we seem to be better ... only the playoffs count for us now ...

 

[Sypher04]

We don't know we can beat Tampa/Boston and we can't prove it by playing a mixed bag of non-contender Canadian teams.
The real contenders are across the border. While we seem to be better ... only the playoffs count for us now ...

And we don't know they can beat us. Works both ways. There is no evidence we aren't a real contender.

But yeah, sure, this team will ultimately be evaluated by what they accomplish in the playoffs. All contenders are. We all agree on that.

Either way, the point being made was about season records. Tampa and Boston benefit just as much from not playing us as we do not playing them.

 

[Menzinger]

Weren't Holl and Campbell on the team last year? Your point is?

Holl has taken the next step forward and Campbell only came on to the team once Keefe was hired. The team defensively last year was better on Keefe than Babcock.

The point is the team has been moving forward into transforming into being better at two way play, and this season is the evental result from shift in coaching + the development of existing personnel+ the addition of new defensively positive personnel like Brodie.

The on ice results this season are a lot more than just the result of a red-hot Marner and Matthews

 

[Menzinger]

I personally had hoped that TO is better, better goaltending should always mean better but when the metrics don't meet the results then we know that the results are circumstantial as opposed to real, is TO better against TB, Wash., Boston and other such teams that once out of the covid bubble TO will have to overcome to meet our expectations. Since TO is exceeding some stats from say last year that is good but would those results be as convincing or real against those same teams that TO has traditionally had to overcome to meet our expectations.

I would say that TO's improvements are because of weaker opposition than they faced last year but what is even more disappointing is that TO's results aren't more significantly better considering who they play against.

The question is, is TO as truly superior against teams from the East and Central divisions? TO results might seem better because of it's competition and other team's results might not be as resoundingly good because of their competition, Wash., Boston, NYI and Philly having to play each other what 8 times this year should make their results less outstanding which doesn't necessarily mean their team worse, it would simply mean they face stiffer comp.

Is TO's even GA improvement real, is it easier for TO to improve it's GA by not having to play TB/Boston, I think we all know the answer to that.

TO's new identity, bubblelicious.

Id be more worried defensively speaking of what McDavid or Draistle could do to.the team than anyone on Boston (no offense to Pasta).

The new divisional format also means the always lose out on being to beat up on a putrid Sabres team too. So it's not as if scheduling shifts have been nothing but pluses for the team

 

[Wafflewhipper]

This is a good article that kind of follows the process along the way.
SIMMONS: Maple Leafs' Sheldon Keefe quickly establishing himself as elite NHL coach | Toronto Sun
Awesome article, i got lots out of it.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

We don't know we can beat Tampa/Boston and we can't prove it by playing a mixed bag of non-contender Canadian teams.
The real contenders are across the border. While we seem to be better ... only the playoffs count for us now ...

The regular season matters for me. I guess I’m not in the us for separation purposes of this growing narrative. I want to win every game and every lose puck,every shift. It matters a darn bunch.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Holl has taken the next step forward and Campbell only came on to the team once Keefe was hired. The team defensively last year was better on Keefe than Babcock.

The point is the team has been moving forward into transforming into being better at two way play, and this season is the evental result from shift in coaching + the development of existing personnel+ the addition of new defensively positive personnel like Brodie.

The on ice results this season are a lot more than just the result of a red-hot Marner and Matthews

Clear as a bell. Good simple,straight forward post. Perfect

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Follows nothing butt ramblings of a old enforcer that’s still feeling the kidney shot Colton Orr dropped him with.
Opinion | The true measure of the Maple Leafs is more than a couple of months away, but they’ve passed every test so far

Scott can go F*** a stump

 

[zeke]

This is a good article that kind of follows the process along the way.
SIMMONS: Maple Leafs' Sheldon Keefe quickly establishing himself as elite NHL coach | Toronto Sun
Awesome article, i got lots out of it.

Never. Read. Simmons.