zeke
The Dube Abides
- Mar 14, 2005
- 66,937
- 36,957
and Leafs have a low shot block rate which results in goals against.
but they don't have a low shot block rate.
and Leafs have a low shot block rate which results in goals against.
Blocked shots is a primary contributor to impacting and lowering and debunking the accuracy of expected goals for % in analytics where shot metrics are attempting to predict goals scored.
HDSC = +% of xGF% - BS = actual GF
High Danger Scoring Chance [determined by where the shot attempt on net originated from] ---> expected Goals For [contributes a % towards an expected goal being scored statistic], however minus successful Blocked Shot = Zero actual Goals Against.
Therefore those that love xGF% as a predictor or team outcomes W & L, will adamantly disputed BS [as Bull Shit stat] were BS actually = Blocked shot and successfully lowers xGF and should increase xGA because it results in an actual zero goal against.
The reason our Leafs happen to lose to weaker/bad teams because it inflates expected goals for stats expecting a win by quality and # of shot attempts, but weaker teams often block more shots playing defense and assist their goalie so skilled teams struggle at times, because some high danger scoring chances are nullified ,and Leafs have a low shot block rate which results in goals against.
But other teams are also good at maintaining puck possession, and pushing trying to tie a game, then you MUST, all play goal. Failure to block shots in the playoffs only allows you early tee times.You don't have to block as many shots if you have the puck all the time. Pretty simple.
Hey Willie blocked a shot Saturday night, which is a lot better than not blocking a shot,A stat (Blocked Shots) that I've always though correlated to a teams commitment to team defence and was a good measurement of their structured play, may not be that important.
BS-D , is your blocked shot differential, Blocked shots - Blocked shots against. If you are a team that shoots a lot your BS-A will probably be higher, increasing your BS-D.
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Rk[/TD]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]PTS[/TD]
[TD]BS[/TD]
[TD]BS-A[/TD]
[TD]BS-D[/TD]
[TD]BS-D/GP[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]Florida Panthers[/TD]
[TD]100[/TD]
[TD]833[/TD]
[TD]1114[/TD]
[TD]-281[/TD]
[TD]-4.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]Carolina Hurricanes[/TD]
[TD]98[/TD]
[TD]738[/TD]
[TD]990[/TD]
[TD]-252[/TD]
[TD]-3.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]Colorado Avalanche[/TD]
[TD]104[/TD]
[TD]906[/TD]
[TD]1133[/TD]
[TD]-227[/TD]
[TD]-3.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]Calgary Flames[/TD]
[TD]89[/TD]
[TD]803[/TD]
[TD]1002[/TD]
[TD]-199[/TD]
[TD]-2.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Edmonton Oilers[/TD]
[TD]83[/TD]
[TD]826[/TD]
[TD]1023[/TD]
[TD]-197[/TD]
[TD]-2.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Toronto Maple Leafs[/TD]
[TD]93[/TD]
[TD]796[/TD]
[TD]988[/TD]
[TD]-192[/TD]
[TD]-2.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]New Jersey Devils[/TD]
[TD]54[/TD]
[TD]857[/TD]
[TD]971[/TD]
[TD]-114[/TD]
[TD]-1.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]Los Angeles Kings[/TD]
[TD]86[/TD]
[TD]918[/TD]
[TD]1009[/TD]
[TD]-91[/TD]
[TD]-1.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Four of the six top teams have the least amount of blocked shots.
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Rk[/TD]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]BS[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]Carolina Hurricanes[/TD]
[TD]738[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]Buffalo Sabres[/TD]
[TD]780[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]Toronto Maple Leafs[/TD]
[TD]796[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]Calgary Flames[/TD]
[TD]803[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Edmonton Oilers[/TD]
[TD]826[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Florida Panthers[/TD]
[TD]833[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Are blocked shots really that important?
Justin Holl is a 12th defenceman on a 7 defenceman team he should be strapped onto the nose of a rocket and fired deep into the heart of the sun, or so I hear, far too often btw!
But other teams are also good at maintaining puck possession, and pushing trying to tie a game, then you MUST, all play goal. Failure to block shots in the playoffs only allows you early tee times.
Almost no cup winning team in the modern era is elite in total blocked shots or block shot differential in the playoffs. You just have to watch the games and see if you're getting them when they should exist.When the 3rd highest scoring team Toronto loses a playoff series to the 3rd lowest scoring team CBJ, and the autopsy is underway as to what went wrong, then Blocked shots and Blocked shot differential should be investigated as how much that impacted the series.
If only the Leafs had blocked a few more timely shots, particularly those that resulted in goals against the outcome would have swung the other way in the series perhaps.
What we do know is that players that fearlessly fall in front of shots to block them, are often a goalie best friend, and praised for there willingness to do whatever it takes to win at all cost including their own personal safety.
would there be an correlation in those numbers to W/L GAA and SV%Blocked Shots per 60minutes, Playoffs, last 2yrs:
(24 teams total)
1. VAN 20.80
5. MIN 17.63
10. WPG 16.34
14. BOS 15.18
15. TOR 15.16
16. TBL 15.16
17. COL 14.93
18. MTL 14.88
22. CAR 13.58
23. PIT 12.25
24. FLA 11.98
would there be an correlation in those numbers to W/L GAA and SV%
Yeah.....let's just say that I will also remind the board (and I have said this before) the first time he is ever complimentary of the Leafs.Wow. Please nobody read this and think "this is informative" because he's a mod. If you're trying to learn anything about analytics there are plenty of nice people on this website that would love to explain them to you. None of what he's said besides the descriptions of HDSC and xGF are actually true.
Not to mention analytics people do see value in blocking shots because if you block the damn shot it's not a shot going in the net. The issue is putting your team in the position of blocking the shot constantly.
Playoff victories..?????.Blocked Shots per 60minutes, Playoffs, last 2yrs:
(24 teams total)
1. VAN 20.80
5. MIN 17.63
10. WPG 16.34
14. BOS 15.18
15. TOR 15.16
16. TBL 15.16
17. COL 14.93
18. MTL 14.88
22. CAR 13.58
23. PIT 12.25
24. FLA 11.98
And here I thought you were going to say "wrong."Yeah.....let's just say that I will also remind the board (and I have said this before) the first time he is ever complimentary of the Leafs.
(IE - an actual fan of the team.)