Leafs are horrible at blocking shots. Does it matter?

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Is there a correlation between blocked shots and winning games?

  • Yes

    Votes: 15 30.0%
  • No

    Votes: 14 28.0%
  • It's more complicated than a Yes or No answer.

    Votes: 21 42.0%

  • Total voters
    50
There's only one puck to go around. Good teams don't have to block much against weaker teams and even a good team versus good team where stuff is more 50/50 will keep the totals contained. So the correct answer is "it's complicated". To me, "Yes" and "Complicated" are equivalent because complicated is just an extended Yes, gives the explanation of the "Yes" with respects to why it's also okay to be low in total blocks.
 
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Blocked shots is a primary contributor to impacting and lowering and debunking the accuracy of expected goals for % in analytics where shot metrics are attempting to predict goals scored.

HDSC = +% of xGF% - BS = actual GF

High Danger Scoring Chance [determined by where the shot attempt on net originated from] ---> expected Goals For [contributes a % towards an expected goal being scored statistic], however minus successful Blocked Shot = Zero actual Goals Against.

Therefore those that love xGF% as a predictor or team outcomes W & L, will adamantly disputed BS [as Bull Shit stat] were BS actually = Blocked shot and successfully lowers xGF and should increase xGA because it results in an actual zero goal against.

The reason our Leafs happen to lose to weaker/bad teams because it inflates expected goals for stats expecting a win by quality and # of shot attempts, but weaker teams often block more shots playing defense and assist their goalie so skilled teams struggle at times, because some high danger scoring chances are nullified ,and Leafs have a low shot block rate which results in goals against.

Wow. Please nobody read this and think "this is informative" because he's a mod. If you're trying to learn anything about analytics there are plenty of nice people on this website that would love to explain them to you. None of what he's said besides the descriptions of HDSC and xGF are actually true.

Not to mention analytics people do see value in blocking shots because if you block the damn shot it's not a shot going in the net. The issue is putting your team in the position of blocking the shot constantly.
 
When the 3rd highest scoring team Toronto loses a playoff series to the 3rd lowest scoring team CBJ, and the autopsy is underway as to what went wrong, then Blocked shots and Blocked shot differential should be investigated as how much that impacted the series.

If only the Leafs had blocked a few more timely shots, particularly those that resulted in goals against the outcome would have swung the other way in the series perhaps.

What we do know is that players that fearlessly fall in front of shots to block them, are often a goalie best friend, and praised for there willingness to do whatever it takes to win at all cost including their own personal safety.
 
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You don't have to block as many shots if you have the puck all the time. Pretty simple.
But other teams are also good at maintaining puck possession, and pushing trying to tie a game, then you MUST, all play goal. Failure to block shots in the playoffs only allows you early tee times.
 
A stat (Blocked Shots) that I've always though correlated to a teams commitment to team defence and was a good measurement of their structured play, may not be that important.

BS-D , is your blocked shot differential, Blocked shots - Blocked shots against. If you are a team that shoots a lot your BS-A will probably be higher, increasing your BS-D.


[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Rk[/TD]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]PTS[/TD]
[TD]BS[/TD]
[TD]BS-A[/TD]
[TD]BS-D[/TD]
[TD]BS-D/GP[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]Florida Panthers[/TD]
[TD]100[/TD]
[TD]833[/TD]
[TD]1114[/TD]
[TD]-281[/TD]
[TD]-4.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]Carolina Hurricanes[/TD]
[TD]98[/TD]
[TD]738[/TD]
[TD]990[/TD]
[TD]-252[/TD]
[TD]-3.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]Colorado Avalanche[/TD]
[TD]104[/TD]
[TD]906[/TD]
[TD]1133[/TD]
[TD]-227[/TD]
[TD]-3.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]Calgary Flames[/TD]
[TD]89[/TD]
[TD]803[/TD]
[TD]1002[/TD]
[TD]-199[/TD]
[TD]-2.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Edmonton Oilers[/TD]
[TD]83[/TD]
[TD]826[/TD]
[TD]1023[/TD]
[TD]-197[/TD]
[TD]-2.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Toronto Maple Leafs[/TD]
[TD]93[/TD]
[TD]796[/TD]
[TD]988[/TD]
[TD]-192[/TD]
[TD]-2.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]New Jersey Devils[/TD]
[TD]54[/TD]
[TD]857[/TD]
[TD]971[/TD]
[TD]-114[/TD]
[TD]-1.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]Los Angeles Kings[/TD]
[TD]86[/TD]
[TD]918[/TD]
[TD]1009[/TD]
[TD]-91[/TD]
[TD]-1.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Four of the six top teams have the least amount of blocked shots.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Rk[/TD]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]BS[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]Carolina Hurricanes[/TD]
[TD]738[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]Buffalo Sabres[/TD]
[TD]780[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]Toronto Maple Leafs[/TD]
[TD]796[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]Calgary Flames[/TD]
[TD]803[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Edmonton Oilers[/TD]
[TD]826[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Florida Panthers[/TD]
[TD]833[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


Are blocked shots really that important?
Hey Willie blocked a shot Saturday night, which is a lot better than not blocking a shot,

To the point, yes it's important and it does play a part to team success to interrupt, block or take away shots. It is certainly better though than tipping shots caused by a half-hearted attempt to get in the way of a puck that 8 times out of 10 seems to end up in our own net.

Hockey truths; score more than the opponent and you'll invariably always get the W; the more shots you block/don't allow the less chance the other team has to score; the less the other team does score chances are you'll score more than them which brings us back to where we started.
 
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But other teams are also good at maintaining puck possession, and pushing trying to tie a game, then you MUST, all play goal. Failure to block shots in the playoffs only allows you early tee times.

Blocked Shots per 60minutes, Playoffs, last 2yrs:

(24 teams total)

1. VAN 20.80

5. MIN 17.63

10. WPG 16.34

14. BOS 15.18
15. TOR 15.16
16. TBL 15.16
17. COL 14.93
18. MTL 14.88

22. CAR 13.58
23. PIT 12.25
24. FLA 11.98
 
When the 3rd highest scoring team Toronto loses a playoff series to the 3rd lowest scoring team CBJ, and the autopsy is underway as to what went wrong, then Blocked shots and Blocked shot differential should be investigated as how much that impacted the series.

If only the Leafs had blocked a few more timely shots, particularly those that resulted in goals against the outcome would have swung the other way in the series perhaps.

What we do know is that players that fearlessly fall in front of shots to block them, are often a goalie best friend, and praised for there willingness to do whatever it takes to win at all cost including their own personal safety.
Almost no cup winning team in the modern era is elite in total blocked shots or block shot differential in the playoffs. You just have to watch the games and see if you're getting them when they should exist.

Blocks-for are very low priority factor to look into for last 2 series. Had almost zero relevance to us losing. We will most likely need some huge blocks this year though since we will hit good portions of the 60 minutes where play is even. Hopefully not off their ankles like Wild Bill though :laugh:
 
I've thought about something similar quite a lot recently with our goaltending woes in 2022. Specifically: we seem to let in a lot of redirected shots. It's hard to blame a goalie for a redirected shot going in, but when they go in consistently, maybe it's the goalie's fault? It's easier to remember the ones that went in than the ones that are saved so it's hard to figure out what exactly is going on.

I believe the reason for this is that we let players glide through the front of our net/center of our defensive zone uncontested more than other teams. These guys are elite athletes, with ridiculous hand-eye coordination. If they can stand in the lane and not be shoved at all, they are going to tip it pretty damn often.

I could be wrong, but it's an idea I've been playing around with. Not exactly shot-blocking related, but is similar. Our players are not in the shooting lanes, but the other team's players are.
 
Blocked Shots per 60minutes, Playoffs, last 2yrs:

(24 teams total)

1. VAN 20.80

5. MIN 17.63

10. WPG 16.34

14. BOS 15.18
15. TOR 15.16
16. TBL 15.16
17. COL 14.93
18. MTL 14.88

22. CAR 13.58
23. PIT 12.25
24. FLA 11.98
would there be an correlation in those numbers to W/L GAA and SV%
 
Wow. Please nobody read this and think "this is informative" because he's a mod. If you're trying to learn anything about analytics there are plenty of nice people on this website that would love to explain them to you. None of what he's said besides the descriptions of HDSC and xGF are actually true.

Not to mention analytics people do see value in blocking shots because if you block the damn shot it's not a shot going in the net. The issue is putting your team in the position of blocking the shot constantly.
Yeah.....let's just say that I will also remind the board (and I have said this before) the first time he is ever complimentary of the Leafs.

(IE - an actual fan of the team.)
 
Blocked Shots per 60minutes, Playoffs, last 2yrs:

(24 teams total)

1. VAN 20.80

5. MIN 17.63

10. WPG 16.34

14. BOS 15.18
15. TOR 15.16
16. TBL 15.16
17. COL 14.93
18. MTL 14.88

22. CAR 13.58
23. PIT 12.25
24. FLA 11.98
Playoff victories..?????.
Stats at 18:39 in period 3 with a 3-2 lead means shiit. Block or go home.
We must ensure players are dedicated enough to give up their body when it counts.
We need Salming, not Turnbull, at that time. Everyone all in. Not another Boston, weak, pacifists and golfers.
 
Yeah.....let's just say that I will also remind the board (and I have said this before) the first time he is ever complimentary of the Leafs.

(IE - an actual fan of the team.)
And here I thought you were going to say "wrong.";)
 

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