LD Zeev Buium - University of Denver, NCAA (2024, 12th, MIN)

[montreal]

adam fox is a unicorn. expecting him to be fox isn't realistic. there is obviously a path where buium is desirable player where he isn't anywhere near as good as fox. what does that look like?

top 4 D, top PP, hopefully 40-50 pts a season in his prime.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

top 4 D, top PP, hopefully 40-50 pts a season in his prime.

thanks. this is more of a shattenkirk level player, which seems realistic. and that is definitely a 1st round pick, maybe top half of round, but that doesn't seem like top 3 pick. which is why he probably shouldn't go in top 3. if you need to basically hit on power ball for pick to be good value, you are picking him too high.

 

[Beckett]

He's easily my pick after Celly and Demy. You cant teach someone to think the game the way he does. His hands are already elite for a d-man and if/when he adds some power to his stride he's going to be lethal. Also it's not like he's little, he projects to be average size even if he doesnt grow really. He's also got some aggressiveness to his game at times and I think he'll continue to develop that into his game defensively as he grows.

 

[Spearmint Rhino]

Like everyone says, pros and cons to each. As a D and coach of D, I’ve always taught that the net is the most valuable tool while breaking out and retrieving pucks. If we can get the net there’s a really good chance we can use it to lose forecheckers and exit the zone under control and through the middle of the ice. Retrieving pucks and “getting the net” really is much easier on the off side so it can be scooped up on the forehand. That, and off-hand players can attack the middle much quicker, while being a shooting threat the entire time they walk the line in the OZ.

Depends on players skill sets, but I really don’t understand why there aren’t more playing their off-side. It’s not something I’ve ever looked for to have an even split 3/3 on my teams - that seems to me like an overstated need, players can be just as effective, if not more depending on their tools and style, on the off-side.

On the PK you’d want guys on their strong side as you’re not trying to make any plays and have less time, on the PP prefer off-side but in reality many just roam these days. At 5-5 definitely relies on the talent, the old style d-man who just clears off the glass and out needs to be on his strong side but all these new mobile D that can either pass or skate the puck out doesn’t really matter.

All this to say my Habs shouldn’t dismiss him at 5 cause we have depth at LD if he’s BPA

 

[coooldude]

DU lists him at 6'2, his brother is 6'4 so you just need to find a pic of them standing back to back,

Since I don't assume that everyone remembers all 13 pages of this thread... we did have an amusing back and forth a few months ago comparing various videos of interviews and celebrations. He looks to be a bit taller than Will Smith, who is squarely 6'0", so I think the consensus was that he would measure 6'0.5" to 6'0.75" at the combine. 6'2" is almost certainly wrong - Levshunov is 6'2" and stands out clearly for size.

 

[majormajor]

DU lists him at 6'2, his brother is 6'4 so you just need to find a pic of them standing back to back,

Since I don't assume that everyone remembers all 13 pages of this thread... we did have an amusing back and forth a few months ago comparing various videos of interviews and celebrations. He looks to be a bit taller than Will Smith, who is squarely 6'0", so I think the consensus was that he would measure 6'0.5" to 6'0.75" at the combine. 6'2" is almost certainly wrong - Levshunov is 6'2" and stands out clearly for size.

Buium himself has laughed about his 6'2 measurement and says that isn't accurate.

I think he's within half an inch either side of 6'0 even.

adam fox is a unicorn. expecting him to be fox isn't realistic. there is obviously a path where buium is desirable player where he isn't anywhere near as good as fox. what does that look like?

Pointswise I find it easy to imagine Buium as a 60 pt type D-man. And I think he's going to be a fantastic playdriver and strong defender, so even if he has mostly 40 pt seasons he can still be worth a top pick. Duncan Keith was not always scoring a ton of points.

 

[coooldude]

Duncan Keith was not always scoring a ton of points.

I've been avoiding making the comparison but it definitely comes to mind. Or Niedermayer, both as a ceiling obviously...

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I've been avoiding making the comparison but it definitely comes to mind. Or Niedermayer, both as a ceiling obviously...

Not to pick on you, but this is problem with comps. We identify traits we see in player and try to extrapolate, but the comparison loses value when every comp we list is hall of famer. I love Zeev as a player. I would take him top 10 and expect he will be worth that. But on this page alone we are comping him to 3 of best d of our generation. He can be heckuva player and still likely not come close as a player to Keith, fox, or Niedermayer. Seems like we should be comping guys like buium more to shattenkirk and Barrie and grezclyk and other good players that aren’t immortals, as that seems like far more likely result. Because nearly every nhl player has some great attributes and we are trying to place picks in that context. Unless we are trying to suggest we think buium is going to be so awesome that whomever drafts him should be taking measurements for that statue outside their arena.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Stylistic comparisons aren't supposed to indicate career accolades or be interpreted as career reputation.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I just don’t see how you could compare Buium, an average skater, to Keith or Niedermayer, literally two of the best skating defensemen in NHL history.

 

[coooldude]

Not to pick on you, but this is problem with comps. We identify traits we see in player and try to extrapolate, but the comparison loses value when every comp we list is hall of famer. I love Zeev as a player. I would take him top 10 and expect he will be worth that. But on this page alone we are comping him to 3 of best d of our generation. He can be heckuva player and still likely not come close as a player to Keith, fox, or Niedermayer. Seems like we should be comping guys like buium more to shattenkirk and Barrie and grezclyk and other good players that aren’t immortals, as that seems like far more likely result. Because nearly every nhl player has some great attributes and we are trying to place picks in that context. Unless we are trying to suggest we think buium is going to be so awesome that whomever drafts him should be taking measurements for that statue outside their arena.

Stylistic comparisons aren't supposed to indicate career accolades or be interpreted as career reputation.

I just don’t see how you could compare Buium, an average skater, to Keith or Niedermayer, literally two of the best skating defensemen in NHL history.

Comps are hard and problematic, of course. This came up on the Dickinson thread for like 3 pages. To do comps well you need a top end comp, a mid range comp, a low end non bust comp, and some sort of complete guess at the probability of landing on any one on those.

Zeev plays intelligent, mobile, two way hockey in a way that drives play, but he's not tiny and he's not huge. He isn't as good a skater as Keith or Niedermayer - who is? - but he's a very good skater if not straight line fast. His stylistic impact on the game at the absolute ceiling could be this type of player, that's why so many people are talking about him at 3 and he might be a clear 2 if he were 2 inches and 10 pounds bigger. Maybe this top end outcome is 5-10% but it's not zero, which is incredible in it's own right.

Maybe his mid range outcome is Barrie or whoever, and this is a 50% outcome because most feel he's a solid chance to stick in the NHL and be a contributing player. Makes him a pretty great pick.

That leaves the remaining 45%. Probably only a small chance of a complete bust, and then maybe a 40%??? Who knows... Chance at being a PP2, bottom end D who does his job but can't play the big minutes against stars. That would be disappointing for a 3OA and a bit disappointing at 10OA.

Other players may profile as a higher chance of their top end but a bigger chance of a bust, like Levshunov. Silayev may not have the top end but he may be far more likely to land in the middle and more useful at the bottom, for example.

Anyway, this reaction is why I hesitated to say niedermayer for the top end in the first place.

 

[majormajor]

Not to pick on you, but this is problem with comps. We identify traits we see in player and try to extrapolate, but the comparison loses value when every comp we list is hall of famer. I love Zeev as a player. I would take him top 10 and expect he will be worth that. But on this page alone we are comping him to 3 of best d of our generation. He can be heckuva player and still likely not come close as a player to Keith, fox, or Niedermayer. Seems like we should be comping guys like buium more to shattenkirk and Barrie and grezclyk and other good players that aren’t immortals, as that seems like far more likely result. Because nearly every nhl player has some great attributes and we are trying to place picks in that context. Unless we are trying to suggest we think buium is going to be so awesome that whomever drafts him should be taking measurements for that statue outside their arena.

I was the one who brought up Keith and it wasn't a comp, just in the context of players who are worth more than their points.

But it seems from your examples (shattenkirk and Barrie and grezclyk) that you think he'll be worth less than his points. All of those D have major issues in their end. I think Buium improved so much in that regard over the course of the year, I expect him to be average to above average defensively in the NHL. And well above average as a playdriver - he'll be pushing play into the right areas whether he gets a lot of points or not. It's not as obvious to me that he'll be a top PP point getter. His shot isn't very good.

In terms of upside I think a Dunn / Morrissey type outcome is well within reach. As a stylistic comp something in between them and Fox would be closer. Buium has better tools than Fox but doesn't have the skating of Morrissey or the shot of Vince Dunn.

 

[deytookerjaabs]

I just don’t see how you could compare Buium, an average skater, to Keith or Niedermayer, literally two of the best skating defensemen in NHL history.

At the same age the only indication anyone had that Duncan Keith might be a great skater at the NHL level was his athletic tests, that's it. The guy wasn't blowing past everyone in college. He was nowhere near as good as a Spartan as Buium has been his freshman year at Denver.

Buium is a much better all around skater at 17/18.

The part of Buium's game that's like Keith is his style in the D-zone.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Would take him 3 after Celebrini and Demidov. Best D in draft imo.

 

[57special]

I just don’t see how you could compare Buium, an average skater, to Keith or Niedermayer, literally two of the best skating defensemen in NHL history.

When Keith was drafted, he wasn't thought of as an elite skater, or elite anything, as evidenced by his 54th oa draft position. Adam Fox was picked 66th oa. Brock Faber, who has had a terrific first year, was picked 45th oa. None of these guys were thought to be anything special in their draft years. Going strictly by draft position alone, you could say that we aren't projecting him highly enough(please don't ask about Bogosian, G Reinhart, or Cam Barker).

The thing with all picks is how they develop. I think, if Buium gets stronger(likely), a bit faster(likely), and turns out to be a mentally tough, smart, adaptable player who learns to dig in on defense while still being excellent offensively then he will be really good top pairing player.

If he is a bit lazy, or entitled, and thinks he doesn't have to work and improve, then he will obviously be in trouble.

 

[Juxtaposer]

At the same age the only indication anyone had that Duncan Keith might be a great skater at the NHL level was his athletic tests, that's it. The guy wasn't blowing past everyone in college. He was nowhere near as good as a Spartan as Buium has been his freshman year at Denver.

Buium is a much better all around skater at 17/18.

The part of Buium's game that's like Keith is his style in the D-zone.

When Keith was drafted, he wasn't thought of as an elite skater, or elite anything, as evidenced by his 54th oa draft position. Adam Fox was picked 66th oa. Brock Faber, who has had a terrific first year, was picked 45th oa. None of these guys were thought to be anything special in their draft years. Going strictly by draft position alone, you could say that we aren't projecting him highly enough(please don't ask about Bogosian, G Reinhart, or Cam Barker).

The thing with all picks is how they develop. I think, if Buium gets stronger(likely), a bit faster(likely), and turns out to be a mentally tough, smart, adaptable player who learns to dig in on defense while still being excellent offensively then he will be really good top pairing player.

If he is a bit lazy, or entitled, and thinks he doesn't have to work and improve, then he will obviously be in trouble.

Cool, the comparison wasn’t explicitly “Keith as a prospect”. How many people here honestly saw him as a prospect to the point that it’s a useful comparison?

 

[Erep]

If he is a bit lazy, or entitled, and thinks he doesn't have to work and improve, then he will obviously be in trouble.

This is why he was who I wanted the Sharks to take if the lottery didn't work out. He has the "it" factor. Just not worried about the downsides with him because you can just see the drive when he plays, so I don't think that scenario is something to worry about at all.

 

[deytookerjaabs]

Cool, the comparison wasn’t explicitly “Keith as a prospect”. How many people here honestly saw him as a prospect to the point that it’s a useful comparison?

It's hard to compare eras too because that was so long ago, damn I feel old. But Keith put in a ton of work after college during the lockout up through his AHL years. His skating got a little better each year, IMO. Ultimately he kind of blossomed with the team around him. As a prospect the Hawks actually picked him far ahead of where he was even projected, there was a ton of college players picked before him in his draft year. Total late bloomer with a chip on his shoulder draft steal.

But, yeah, beyond D-zone style of stopping guys with the puck that's where the comp ends with Buium. Personally, Buium's top speed is not something I'm concerned with yet. His first step is great, he cuts like a running back, has a smooth stride does a lot on his skates that some speedsters can't. Moreover, at no point in watching the Frozen Four did I think he looked slow by contrast.

 

[57special]

It's hard to compare eras too because that was so long ago, damn I feel old. But Keith put in a ton of work after college during the lockout up through his AHL years. His skating got a little better each year, IMO. Ultimately he kind of blossomed with the team around him. As a prospect the Hawks actually picked him far ahead of where he was even projected, there was a ton of college players picked before him in his draft year. Total late bloomer with a chip on his shoulder draft steal.

But, yeah, beyond D-zone style of stopping guys with the puck that's where the comp ends with Buium. Personally, Buium's top speed is not something I'm concerned with yet. His first step is great, he cuts like a running back, has a smooth stride does a lot on his skates that some speedsters can't. Moreover, at no point in watching the Frozen Four did I think he looked slow by contrast.

I remember seeing Horton with the Leafs, think of how i feel.

 

[57special]

This is why he was who I wanted the Sharks to take if the lottery didn't work out. He has the "it" factor. Just not worried about the downsides with him because you can just see the drive when he plays, so I don't think that scenario is something to worry about at all.

I agree. The tools might not be elite, but I like his decision making. You want all hockey players to have it, but to me, it's a must in a good Dman.

 

[pman25]

thanks. this is more of a shattenkirk level player, which seems realistic. and that is definitely a 1st round pick, maybe top half of round, but that doesn't seem like top 3 pick. which is why he probably shouldn't go in top 3. if you need to basically hit on power ball for pick to be good value, you are picking him too high.

Ok but the reason some rank him top 3 is because they feel confident he can attain the status of a Fox/Keith level player.

If you are uncertain about his projection for meeting that, then no you probably have others ahead of him.

But It’s not like we are talking of a player ranked in the 40s. He’s generally top 10 so it’s not like 3 is even that much of a “reach” to begin with

 

[WeThreeKings]

Would take him 3 after Celebrini and Demidov. Best D in draft imo.

Well I hope you are Pat Verbeek or Martin Madden.

 

[majormajor]

Ok but the reason some rank him top 3 is because they feel confident he can attain the status of a Fox/Keith level player.

If you are uncertain about his projection for meeting that, then no you probably have others ahead of him.

But It’s not like we are talking of a player ranked in the 40s. He’s generally top 10 so it’s not like 3 is even that much of a “reach” to begin with

You can be a good bit behind Fox/Keith level and still be worth a #3 pick in this draft.

 

[tomd]

Well I hope you are Pat Verbeek or Martin Madden.

The Ducks already have a left side full of D similar to Buium - Mintyukov, Zellweger, and LaCombe. IMO there isn't a clear enough separation at 3OA to justify the Ducks taking Buium when there are others areas of weakness that should be addressed.

 

[WeThreeKings]

The Ducks already have a left side full of D similar to Buium - Mintyukov, Zellweger, and LaCombe. IMO there isn't a clear enough separation at 3OA to justify the Ducks taking Buium when there are others areas of weakness that should be addressed.

Oh I know the Ducks aren't going LD. I'm curious what the Ducks will do if Levshunov goes at 2, they don't need another left shot D or left shot forward.