LD Sam Dickinson - London Knights, OHL (2024, 11th, SJ)

[rt]

l

I’m not as high on Dickinson as others seem to be

The tools are excellent, but his IQ scares me. I don’t think he processes the game at a high-end level.

I think his IQ and processing are excellent. Huge strengths of his game.

In his own zone he’s an adventure. He tends to overcommit and over-pressure attackers. Or on the flip side not gap up, giving an opponent too much time and space.

I think this is the most impressive part of his game.

He’s often times getting caught high or completely losing his sense of space on the ice. He can look truly lost at times. It may not always seem egregious or end up costing him, because his size and skating bail him out.

It’s junior hockey. It happens.

In transition he’s a mixed bag.

I think in transition he’s incredible.

I like Dickinson, but I’m not buying any top 10 hype. Let alone top 3. He’ll end up around 15 on my final list

He’s likely to be 4th or 5th on my list. I think he’s an elite prospect.

It’s interesting how we can all watch the same games and see different things.

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

l

I think his IQ and processing are excellent. Huge strengths of his game.

I think this is the most impressive part of his game.

It’s junior hockey. It happens.

I think in transition he’s incredible.

He’s likely to be 4th or 5th on my list. I think he’s an elite prospect.

It’s interesting how we can all watch the same games and see different things.

Yeah I'm not seeing most of what he's talking about. He's the 3rd best prospect in the draft for me (but I hope to god Montreal doesn't take him)

 

[McMozesmadness]

It’s interesting how we can all watch the same games and see different things.

I think about this often. Obviously nobody’s watching every game of every prospect. It makes me think, I could just be catching subpar games. Or the opposite. Someone is only seeing them at their best. There’s also the idea of confirmation bias. Perhaps you see them bad or good. Then subconsciously look to confirm what you originally saw

I’ve given Dickinson a good look. I will continue to watch his run with London and I always try my best to watch prospects with an open mind

One of my my favourite parts of draft is that today, neither of us is right. We won’t know who’s right for 10 years

 

[rt]

I think about this often. Obviously nobody’s watching every game of every prospect. It makes me think, I could just be catching subpar games. Or the opposite. Someone is only seeing them at their best. There’s also the idea of confirmation bias. Perhaps you see them bad or good. Then subconsciously look to confirm what you originally saw

I’ve given Dickinson a good look. I will continue to watch his run with London and I always try my best to watch prospects with an open mind

One of my my favourite parts of draft is that today, neither of us is right. We won’t know who’s right for 10 years

I totally agree. The other option is I could be just plain wrong. Haha. That’s always possible!

 

[Michoulicious]

l

I think his IQ and processing are excellent. Huge strengths of his game.

I think this is the most impressive part of his game.

It’s junior hockey. It happens.

I think in transition he’s incredible.

He’s likely to be 4th or 5th on my list. I think he’s an elite prospect.

It’s interesting how we can all watch the same games and see different things.

I am with you.

Barring injuries, etc. Dickinson is one of the safest bets in this draft.

Surefire 2nd pair NHL D floor, potential of 1st pairing all situation, 25-30 mins/game all star.

 

[McMozesmadness]

I totally agree. The other option is I could be just plain wrong. Haha. That’s always possible!

Just as much as I could be

I certainly see what others see with him. My review maybe came off as more harsh that it needed to be. I think my overall point was that he’s being ranked a bit high for my liking and that he’s too reliant on his physical tools at the junior level, thus stunting much needed development in his game. I see a scenario where he’s the best D in this class. It’s a very unique group of D this year. Lots of “upside” picks. Rankings will be all over the place

I agree with those saying he has a safe floor. Like I said the skating will get him to the NHL. What he is from there? We will have to wait and see

 

[Rabid Ranger]

I am with you.

Barring injuries, etc. Dickinson is one of the safest bets in this draft.

Surefire 2nd pair NHL D floor, potential of 1st pairing all situation, 25-30 mins/game all star.

That's his floor?

 

[rt]

That's his floor?

These kinds of things always go off the rails a bit.

If everything goes perfectly right he might be an elite defenseman for the ages like Scott Niedermayer, or something. If everything goes wrong and it just never clicks maybe he’s a David Tanabe style disappointment.

But thinking more realistically, his range is probably like whatever the mid point is between a guy like a Hanifin and a Dobson or Pietrangelo for the reasonable upside. Then for the reasonable downside it’s probably more like whatever the middle ground is between a guy like Hanifin and maybe someone like Jusso Valimaki or something.

So I guess the Dickinson comp is something like Hanifin but with the potential to slide either a little closer to Pietrangelo or a little closer to Valimaki.

I haven’t thought about these comps deeply. So I wouldn’t get hung up on the specific names. These were off the top of my head examples to express a concept of “reasonable upside ranges”.

 

[gothegr8]

Have a hard time with his IQ, but other than that i like him.

 

[Michoulicious]

That's his floor?

A 2nd pair D, meaning a #3-4 D in the NHL, yeah, I kind of see it as a floor. Guy is 6'3, an excellent skater, has a good shot and can break a cycle. Plays 25-30 mins/game on the the best CHL development program (London) in his draft year. At worst he is what, a Brady Skjei?

Of course injuries can derail any career, so there is always that possibility. But Dickinson is one of the highest floor player in that draft (with Celebrini of course)... I think the bust potential (never play in the NHL) is really, really low.

 

[Juxtaposer]

A 2nd pair D, meaning a #3-4 D in the NHL, yeah, I kind of see it as a floor. Guy is 6'3, an excellent skater, has a good shot and can break a cycle. Plays 25-30 mins/game on the the best CHL development program (London) in his draft year. At worst he is what, a Brady Skjei?

Of course injuries can derail any career, so there is always that possibility. But Dickinson is one of the highest floor player in that draft (with Celebrini of course)... I think the bust potential (never play in the NHL) is really, really low.

I think most of us agree that Sam will play, barring major injuries. He’s 100% a bottom pairing defenseman at the absolute worst—he could probably play bottom pairing right now with his elite size/skating combo and his solid hands and transition ability. But some people see a guy who could be a top pairing D and some of us really, really don’t. I think he’ll be a plug-and-play #3D in the way that mid-2010’s Justin Braun was for the Sharks. Braun flirted with #2-caliber play for a couple seasons, but for the most part he was a reliable middle pairing guy who could play excellent shutdown defense and move the puck decently. That player is absolutely worthy of a pick in the 8-11 range for me, so I’d still take him pretty high. Just not top-5 high.

I don’t see the hockey IQ or high-end offensive tools for him to be a true top-pairing D, personally. But it’s cool if some do. Only time will tell.

 

[JeffreyLFC]

His pre draft profile reminds me so much of Noah Dobson, he had it all (great size, amazing skater, reliable defensively, very effective but not a difference maker offensively or flashy, not a true puck moving type like Quinn Hughes was) but somehow went overlooked because people were more interested to the other defenseman who had more "upside" and offensive flair than him. He was a "boring" prospect with a high floor.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

His pre draft profile reminds me so much of Noah Dobson, he had it all (great size, amazing skater, reliable defensively, very effective but not a difference maker offensively or flashy, not a true puck moving type like Quinn Hughes was) but somehow went overlooked because people were more interested to the other defenseman who had more "upside" and offensive flair than him. He was a "boring" prospect with a high floor.

I think Dobson didn’t have any hockey sense questions. It was about if he had big offensive upside. Dickinson has hockey sense questions along with any questions about his offensive upside.

 

[JeffreyLFC]

I think Dobson didn’t have any hockey sense questions. It was about if he had big offensive upside. Dickinson has hockey sense questions along with any questions about his offensive upside.

That's revisiting history, a lot of people questined Dobson ability to become an offensive player in the NHL, otherwise he would have been drafted way higher, he also had a very average WJC too as a 19 years old which also made people question his offensive potential in the NHL. Furthermore there were not many defensive prospect that transitioned well their game from the Q to the NHL so it also raised some additional question marks. I will say Dickinson is even more pro ready than Dobson was at their respective age as he is stronger physically and london is a top tier program which bode very well for him. Both of them are playing very defensive first, safe, reliable defensive game and offensively they play it very safe. I think he will become a similar player, safe 25min+ defender that will provide around 40-50 pts per year and shutdown the opposite top lines.

 

[McMozesmadness]

That's revisiting history, a lot of people questined Dobson ability to become an offensive player in the NHL, otherwise he would have been drafted way higher, he also had a very average WJC too as a 19 years old which also made people question his offensive potential in the NHL. Furthermore there were not many defensive prospect that transitioned well their game from the Q to the NHL so it also raised some additional question marks. I will say Dickinson is even more pro ready than Dobson was at their respective age as he is stronger physically and london is a top tier program. Both of them are playing very defensive first, safe, reliable defensive game and offensively they play it very safe. I think he will become a similar player, safe 25min+ defender that will provide around 40-50 pts per year and shutdown the opposite top lines.

Nobody questioned Dobson’s brain though. That’s the point he’s making. I can attest to that. I had Dobson 4. Never questioned his IQ. It was always his strength. He had lesser tools than Dickinson has at the same age, but Dobson developed and advanced them over time. His base was always IQ

What worries some about Dickinson type players is that the advanced tools at a young age lead to them not developing the IQ. In some cases being more “pro-ready” can be viewed as a negative

 

[McMozesmadness]

I looked back at the last five drafts to find some names that fit the Dickinson profile in my opinion. Keep in mind they all have various styles and strengths. Various levels of pre draft production. The main question being their IQ vs natural tools. I ranked all these guys lower than consensus. If you liked this group you probably like Dickinson

Owen Pickering
Simon Edvinsson
Kaiden Guhle
Philip Broberg

I’d argue Guhle isn’t perfect for this list, he has a good defensive IQ, but I think he’s a great comp for Dickinson in terms of size and build. Guhle is more physical though. Going back further I think Darnell Nurse is the perfect comparable for what I’m trying to express. Again. Nurse has/had the better physical game and better overall tools, Dickinson a more projectable offensive game, at the same age

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Saw someone compare him recently to Hanifin, and I think that's probably the comparison. Best attribute is his skating for a 6'3 200 left shot defenseman. Good defensive player. Has offense, but not elite offense. What's keeping him from being a future #1D is probably the hockey sense and true elite level hands. But has a good chance to eat top 4 minutes for a long time, and potentially play all situations. A player who has a lot of value in the top 10 and possibly top 5.

 

[rt]

I think Dobson didn’t have any hockey sense questions. It was about if he had big offensive upside. Dickinson has hockey sense questions along with any questions about his offensive upside.

I don’t think Dickinson has hockey sense questions or any questions about offensive upside.

Saw someone compare him recently to Hanifin, and I think that's probably the comparison. Best attribute is his skating for a 6'3 200 left shot defenseman. Good defensive player. Has offense, but not elite offense. What's keeping him from being a future #1D is probably the hockey sense and true elite level hands. But has a good chance to eat top 4 minutes for a long time, and potentially play all situations. A player who has a lot of value in the top 10 and possibly top 5.

I can agree with this. I think he could be a bit better. And could be a bit worse. I like him more than a lot of people do, apparently, so I’m betting on a bit better than Hanifin. But it’s ok if others don’t see it that way.

 

[rt]

I looked back at the last five drafts to find some names that fit the Dickinson profile in my opinion. Keep in mind they all have various styles and strengths. Various levels of pre draft production. The main question being their IQ vs natural tools. I ranked all these guys lower than consensus. If you liked this group you probably like Dickinson

Owen Pickering
Simon Edvinsson
Kaiden Guhle
Philip Broberg

I’d argue Guhle isn’t perfect for this list, he has a good defensive IQ, but I think he’s a great comp for Dickinson in terms of size and build. Guhle is more physical though. Going back further I think Darnell Nurse is the perfect comparable for what I’m trying to express. Again. Nurse has/had the better physical game and better overall tools, Dickinson a more projectable offensive game, at the same age

I see this as cherry picking examples that match confirmation bias. This analysis in this thread is feeling like an echo chamber. I am not sure I’ve seen these criticisms outside of this thread.

 

[McMozesmadness]

I see this as cherry picking examples that match confirmation bias. This analysis in this thread is feeling like an echo chamber. I am not sure I’ve seen these criticisms outside of this thread.

Not sure how else to compare him to other players without “cherry picking” the players I think he plays like, right? Haha

I picked comparable prospects from past drafts, good and bad, as an example of players I’ve personally had similar concerns with. I’m not stating that I’m correct about the players I mentioned, or Dickinson, they could all pan out

I think we just disagree about the player and that’s fine

 

[rt]

Not sure how else to compare him to other players without “cherry picking” the players I think he plays like, right? Haha

I picked comparable prospects from past drafts, good and bad, as an example of players I’ve personally had similar concerns with. I’m not stating that I’m correct about the players I mentioned, or Dickinson, they could all pan out

I think we just disagree about the player and that’s fine

Here’s another way:

	Year	Pick	Name	Games	Goals	Assists	Points	Points/Gm
1​	2010​	12​	Fowler	55​	8​	47​	55​	1​
2​	2011​	9​	Hamilton	67​	12​	46​	58​	0.8656716​
3​	2011​	12​	Murphy	63​	26​	53​	79​	1.2539683​
4​	2012​	10​	Koekkoek	26​	5​	13​	18​	0.6923077​
5​	2012​	15​	Ceci	64​	17​	43​	60​	0.9375​
6​	2013​	7​	Nurse	68​	12​	29​	41​	0.6029412​
7​	2014​	1​	Ekblad	58​	23​	30​	53​	0.9137931​
8​	2016​	5​	Juolevi	57​	9​	33​	42​	0.7368421​
9​	2016​	9​	Sergachev	67​	17​	40​	57​	0.8507463​
10​	2018​	10​	Bouchard	67​	25​	62​	87​	1.2985075​
11​	2020​	6​	Drysdale	49​	9​	38​	47​	0.9591837​
12​	2022​	10​	Mintyukov	67​	17​	45​	62​	0.9253731​
	Avg	9​		59​	15​	40​	55​	0.9322034​
			Dickinson	68​	18​	52​	70​	1.0294118​
			Parekh	66​	33​	63​	96​	1.4545455​

Those are Top 15 pick blueliners drafted out of the OHL in the last 15 drafts. Since Zayne and Same were 3 years old.

 

[rt]

You’re right. It’s okay to disagree on the player. And I think we do. I think his defense and the way he closes on players entering his zone, his gap ups, stick on puck, his retrievals, the way he sees and thinks, and his transition play, are all just as Or more impressive than the production. So to me, not only is he top 3-4 on that that list in production, he’s better that that in two-way play. Right near the top.

 

[montreal]

just about shift by shift, impressive game from him.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

I looked back at the last five drafts to find some names that fit the Dickinson profile in my opinion. Keep in mind they all have various styles and strengths. Various levels of pre draft production. The main question being their IQ vs natural tools. I ranked all these guys lower than consensus. If you liked this group you probably like Dickinson

Owen Pickering
Simon Edvinsson
Kaiden Guhle
Philip Broberg

I’d argue Guhle isn’t perfect for this list, he has a good defensive IQ, but I think he’s a great comp for Dickinson in terms of size and build. Guhle is more physical though. Going back further I think Darnell Nurse is the perfect comparable for what I’m trying to express. Again. Nurse has/had the better physical game and better overall tools, Dickinson a more projectable offensive game, at the same age

Broberg doesn't belong on this list. Broberg has no IQ.

 

[rt]

Broberg doesn't belong on this list. Broberg has no IQ.

It’s Dickinson that doesn’t belong on that list.