LD Jake Livanavage - Univ. of North Dakota, NCAA (2022 undrafted)

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Small puck moving defenseman. Above-average puck moving, skating, defense. Not a real standout in any area, but no big weaknesses. Reminds me of Aidan Hreschuk from the draft above his. Probably a 2nd/3rd round pick next year.

Jake Livanavage at eliteprospects.com

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[Artorius Horus T]

A bump.

Is almost ppg this season in the USHL

 

[Luc Poitras]

PP specialist

 

[Artorius Horus T]

PP specialist

That's a good thing.

Especially these days

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

45 points in 61 games this season. One more season to go in the USHL, and then he'll play for North Dakota.

My notes on him from this season.

Livanavage: Really good skater and can move the puck well under pressure. Has pretty good skill, but not elite. Probably more of a PP2 guy at the NHL level. Defense is about average for his size. Probably will be a slight liability in the NHL in this area because of his size. Late round 2-early round 3 are where I could see him getting drafted. I think he’ll play in the NHL as a bottom pairing PMD, but his upside may be a little limited.

 

[GermanSpitfire]

Reminds me of Chris Wideman in a sense. I expect him to go in the mid- rounds

 

[Kipper933]

I see a lot of similarities between him and former Steel defenseman Ryan Ufko, not quite as strong defensively but close. He looks like a late 2nd to me, but maybe he also drops like Ufko.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I see a lot of similarities between him and former Steel defenseman Ryan Ufko, not quite as strong defensively but close. He looks like a late 2nd to me, but maybe he also drops like Ufko.

I think he skates much better than Ufko, but with less hockey sense.

 

[Luc Poitras]

He's a beautiful skater. However, his hockey sense is a big question mark and his Defense is sorely lacking.

 

[Petes2424]

People should keep an eye on him. Undrafted but only going into his freshman year. He’s looked good for a 19 year old freshman dman. If he has a strong season, which looks like he could, and keeps getting stronger, with the couple of lateral moves he has to make guys miss, he could end up being a productive NHL dman in a couple of years. Just needs to keep getting stronger and work on his explosion a little. He reads the ice really well. Actually surprised he wasn’t drafted, but we’ll see where it all shakes out for him.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

He's caught my eye when watching UND highlights. Still draft eligible. Wonder if anyone bites this summer. Gilbert AZ native, would be cool if the Coyotes drafted him

 

[rt]

I really liked his game when he was with the Chicago Steel. I was surprised when he went undrafted. I think with his small size and doubts about offensive upside, teams just decided not to the roll the dice. With him producing so well at NoDak that might make a believer out of some team.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

This’ll be the third year he should be picked with a lot of margin for error.

 

[Michael Farkas]

I think with his small size and doubts about offensive upside, teams just decided not to the roll the dice. With him producing so well at NoDak that might make a believer out of some team.

You basically summed it up. He was a sucker's bet when I saw him with Chicago. That production doesn't match what he brings to the ice for me. At sub-5'10", you have to have uncommon elements of dynamic skating and technical skill. I didn't find him to be meeting those marks with the Steel, and I don't think it was all that close either, with all due respect.

 

[rt]

You basically summed it up. He was a sucker's bet when I saw him with Chicago. That production doesn't match what he brings to the ice for me. At sub-5'10", you have to have uncommon elements of dynamic skating and technical skill. I didn't find him to be meeting those marks with the Steel, and I don't think it was all that close either, with all due respect.

The feet+brains combo made me think he was worthy of a selection at some point last draft. But that’s easy to say when you don’t have a list with 150 names on it.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

You basically summed it up. He was a sucker's bet when I saw him with Chicago. That production doesn't match what he brings to the ice for me. At sub-5'10", you have to have uncommon elements of dynamic skating and technical skill. I didn't find him to be meeting those marks with the Steel, and I don't think it was all that close either, with all due respect.

I would rather take a guy with a proven track record in more quality leagues as opposed to taking low probability bets like Warren Clark or Sean Keohane. Zach Nehring was also drafted way too high. Livanavage continues to produce, and at worst, he's a trade chip that teams can use when they're going for it or flip him for a higher pick if his value increases.

 

[rt]

You have to hope he’s like a Girard or Gostisbehere. Because there’s really no such thing as a poor man’s version of those types in the NHL. A poor man’s Ghost/Girard is called a minor leaguer.

 

[Michael Farkas]

I would rather take a guy with a proven track record in more quality leagues as opposed to taking low probability bets like Warren Clark or Sean Keohane. Zach Nehring was also drafted way too high. Livanavage continues to produce, and at worst, he's a trade chip that teams can use when they're going for it or flip him for a higher pick if his value increases.

As a rule, I don't necessarily disagree with the first part. But you have to have a real process as a scout and scouting team. For me, I really went far down the road on Livanavage because of his production. I had to make sure I wasn't missing anything. Because, frankly, he never got close for me. He was a wire to wire ND and I slept like a baby about it (that is, in the USHL - I dropped him from my watchlist after).

If a player like Keohane (not saying him exactly) is a more raw, more unproductive prospect BUT has some projectable tools, I'm more likely to go there because I'm under the impression that JL is dead in the water. The game happens on the ice and the stats get totaled up after. So it's nice if you get a player eval and production rate that makes sense. But you really have to be on your toes as a scout about players and production rates that don't match one way or the other. And frankly, that's where you see the skill of talent evaluation really come in to play.

Re: trade chip. That's where I think it doesn't make sense. This player has been passed over for 400+ picks. It's going to be at least another 100 more in three months, right? Conservatively, 10 clubs have lost any sort of finite track on him at this point. Several more have him firmly on their ND list I presume. So, the small handful (and maybe it's 1, who knows) of clubs that have him on their watchlist or their OA list (if applicable) leaves you a really small network of teams where you can move him to in the first place...and that's only if he somehow explodes 12 months, 24 months after you pick him...and if he does that, then you just keep him and you take that scout out for a nice steak haha

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I think there are two types of players for the players who aren’t going to be picked like first or second round, those with upside and those who are currently good.

I understand the viewpoint that you’d rather take a player you think has upside than one that might currently be better but doesn’t have NHL upside. But there’s an error rate with trying to subjectively judge who has an NHL ceiling.

A player like Livanavage doesn’t have to outdo a subjective judgement of his potential that much to beat the odds or the projection of what he’ll be. He’s already good in the USHL, good in the NCAA, he’ll very likely be good in the AHL.

There are a lot of players who get drafted each year that after like a year you see they are a swing and a miss. Absolutely no potential to play in the NHL. Even if they have desirable traits for NHL teams they are so far away from translating that to being good at hockey in the main development leagues before the NHL.

I think when you balance all of this out it probably makes sense to pick some of these players like Livanavage who are not bets on traits. You need to hedge your bets. No one can predict the future with a high degree of certainty. There is important data that lends in Livanavage’s favor, and it should be accounted for.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

As a rule, I don't necessarily disagree with the first part. But you have to have a real process as a scout and scouting team. For me, I really went far down the road on Livanavage because of his production. I had to make sure I wasn't missing anything. Because, frankly, he never got close for me. He was a wire to wire ND and I slept like a baby about it (that is, in the USHL - I dropped him from my watchlist after).

If a player like Keohane (not saying him exactly) is a more raw, more unproductive prospect BUT has some projectable tools, I'm more likely to go there because I'm under the impression that JL is dead in the water. The game happens on the ice and the stats get totaled up after. So it's nice if you get a player eval and production rate that makes sense. But you really have to be on your toes as a scout about players and production rates that don't match one way or the other. And frankly, that's where you see the skill of talent evaluation really come in to play.

Re: trade chip. That's where I think it doesn't make sense. This player has been passed over for 400+ picks. It's going to be at least another 100 more in three months, right? Conservatively, 10 clubs have lost any sort of finite track on him at this point. Several more have him firmly on their ND list I presume. So, the small handful (and maybe it's 1, who knows) of clubs that have him on their watchlist or their OA list (if applicable) leaves you a really small network of teams where you can move him to in the first place...and that's only if he somehow explodes 12 months, 24 months after you pick him...and if he does that, then you just keep him and you take that scout out for a nice steak haha

The problem is guys like Nehring and Keohane can't produce worth a damn in a quality league that isn't even the NCAA yet. They're such low probability bets that I'd rather just bet on guys that produce and then work with em to develop football mentality/bite/edge and refine defensive game.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

I would take him in this draft in the 6th or 7th round. The progression he made from junior to NCAA was impressive, especially in a quality conference like the NCHC

 

[MS]

I think there are two types of players for the players who aren’t going to be picked like first or second round, those with upside and those who are currently good.

I understand the viewpoint that you’d rather take a player you think has upside than one that might currently be better but doesn’t have NHL upside. But there’s an error rate with trying to subjectively judge who has an NHL ceiling.

A player like Livanavage doesn’t have to outdo a subjective judgement of his potential that much to beat the odds or the projection of what he’ll be. He’s already good in the USHL, good in the NCAA, he’ll very likely be good in the AHL.

There are a lot of players who get drafted each year that after like a year you see they are a swing and a miss. Absolutely no potential to play in the NHL. Even if they have desirable traits for NHL teams they are so far away from translating that to being good at hockey in the main development leagues before the NHL.

I think when you balance all of this out it probably makes sense to pick some of these players like Livanavage who are not bets on traits. You need to hedge your bets. No one can predict the future with a high degree of certainty. There is important data that lends in Livanavage’s favor, and it should be accounted for.

The problem with this, again, is that teams want to generate asset value.

Even if a guy like Livanavage hits ... he has no value. Nobody wants sub-6'0 NHL defenders unless they're superstars.

Erik Gustafsson scored 42 points in 22-23 ... and signed a 1-year deal for $825k for 23-24. A guy like Troy Stecher who is actually a really solid undersized defensive D kicks around for a different team every year at the league minimum.

When you're drafting guys like this even if you win ... you kind of don't.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

The problem with this, again, is that teams want to generate asset value.

Even if a guy like Livanavage hits ... he has no value. Nobody wants sub-6'0 NHL defenders unless they're superstars.

Erik Gustafsson scored 42 points in 22-23 ... and signed a 1-year deal for $825k for 23-24. A guy like Troy Stecher who is actually a really solid undersized defensive D kicks around for a different team every year at the league minimum.

When you're drafting guys like this even if you win ... you kind of don't.

It’s the Hurricanes drafting philosophy. They take players like this. I wouldn’t say the results are bad. Mixed, at worse. They have their share of hits and misses, but I would consider them above average for the league.

 

[MS]

It’s the Hurricanes drafting philosophy. They take players like this. I wouldn’t say the results are bad. Mixed, at worse. They have their share of hits and misses, but I would consider them above average for the league.

The Hurricanes have been really good at impressing fans on these boards by drafting all kinds of guys who play at the WJCs but really bad at actually converting that into actual asset value or results.

Those 2019-2021 drafts in rounds 2-7 that people were frothing over in 2022 have turned into a whole lot of nothing ... aside from Morrow and Nikishin, who were two big, high-value, high-upside prime position players and the exact opposite of drafting guys like Livanavage.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

The Hurricanes have been really good at impressing fans on these boards by drafting all kinds of guys who play at the WJCs but really bad at actually converting that into actual asset value or results.

Those 2019-2021 drafts in rounds 2-7 that people were frothing over in 2022 have turned into a whole lot of nothing ... aside from Morrow and Nikishin, who were two big, high-value, high-upside prime position players and the exact opposite of drafting guys like Livanavage.

I’m talking about the results. You think the Hurricanes over the last 5 years have not gotten drafting results? Totally disagree.

Jarvis, Drury, Kochetkov in that span, and then you got a player like Nikishin coming who will be a star. Morrow and Nadeau look very promising. This is just off the top of my head. I’m sure a Canes fan can tell me a few players I’m forgetting.