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U18: Latvia U18s 2025 Roster Talk

Similar quality of teams under "18" :D (next 3 drafts)

Latvian prospects: 6 players
Slovakian prospects: 20 players

really similar, i normally fall out of that equation.
 
Namejs said:
First of all, I listed all Latvians who played in Slovakia2 over the last 3 years. Assuming ill intent instead of inquiring me as to why or how I came to my conclusion is a bitch move. You conveniently ignored that I was asked to list some examples, which I did.

If you knew anything about statistics, you would know that including players with 4 GP in a league has no value as a stand alone metric and is not a valid data point unless you aggregate/pool all games and strip the names off the data while doing a pooled mean comparison.

I had no idea there were so many Slovaks playing in Latvia. If you look at the clubs they played for, they were hired by the Lithuanian amateur teams to elevate their team and make it somewhat competitive against the Latvian teams. If you look at their ice time and usage, you would see that most of the Slovak players are 4th liners in Slovakia2 while having substantial roles in the Lithuanian teams.

Also, if you make a point about how wrong it is to include 19 year olds in my sample, at least have the decency to look at your own sample - you did the same thing.

If you do a pooled mean comparison amongst all the players who have played in both Slovakia2 and Latvia over the last 10 years, this is their pooled mean ppg rate:

15 players total
1687 GP in Latvia
869 GP in Slovakia2

All players (aggregate)
Slovakia2
0.45 ppg
Latvia
0.53 ppg

Latvian players (this effectively discounts the Lithuanian teams)
Slovakia2
0.64 ppg
Latvia
0.57 ppg

t-statistic = 0.856
p value = 0.400

To summarize, while I was right about Latvian numbers being higher in Slovakia2, actual data analysis suggests there is no statistically significant difference between the 2 leagues and the rate of scoring whether you discount the Lithuanian imports or not.

In simple terms, the quality of both leagues is actually very similar.

This only underlines and further strengthens my point about the major overlap and similarity of the Latvian and Slovak U18 NT talent pool.

As for the argument about Lithuanian teams diluting the talent level of the Latvian league -- I am in full agreement with you. However, attendance rates have no effect on the level of play. It's merely an economic indicator. Latvian teams are not funded by ticket revenue or any kind of market forces, they are almost entirely subsidized by each respective municipality or by entrepreneurs owning the teams. Furthermore, the bulk of the players are either juniors (about a 1/3 of all players) not receiving a salary or has-beens simply playing hockey for fun, which means that the level of play is much higher than in dozens of better attended leagues.
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We just got a scientific comparison of Slovak 2nd league and Latvian league before GTA 6
 
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Slovakprospects said:
But you'll see, you'll get so much that you'll cry for another half a year, you won't believe what a load your medal candidate will get :D:D
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I'm not sure what do you mean by that. I'm enjoying the golden era of Latvian hockey and objectively assessing my team's strengths and weaknesses and thoroughly enjoying us overtaking Slovakia as the #9 nation in the world.

You're the one on Latvia boards crying about it. Seriously, guy, deal with it. And take a reading course while you're at it.
 
Slovakprospects said:
Similar quality of teams under "18" :D (next 3 drafts)

Latvian prospects: 6 players
Slovakian prospects: 20 players

really similar, i normally fall out of that equation.
Click to expand...
H2H men's team official matches (World Champs & Olympics) vs. Slovakia over the last 10 years:
2-0-2
Highest finish: 3rd place (Latvia 1x, Slovakia 1x)
 
Namejs said:
Also, if you make a point about how wrong it is to include 19 year olds in my sample, at least have the decency to look at your own sample - you did the same thing.
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Well, duh, that was the point. Anyone can throw some examples together with no nuance whatsoever to "prove" their narrative. It's that easy. But I'm glad to you are still obtuse enough to think I'm trying to prove something here rather than commenting on your "data analysis".

Namejs said:
As for the argument about Lithuanian teams diluting the talent level of the Latvian league -- I am in full agreement with you.
Click to expand...
I like how you drum on about Lithuanian teams instead of naming the actual factor - the Latvian [semi]pro teams going down from 7 to 3 over the last 5 years alone where the only meaningful games that are being played are between the finalists of the league. To the point where talking about the "level of hockey" being played, when compared to an actual competitive 12-team league, becomes laughably pointless.

Like, we did find some common ground here. The level between Latvia and Slovakia2 over their lifetime was certainly not incomparable. But that sure as hell doesn't apply to the year 2025 and, conversely to your belief, it isn't Lithuania's fault.
 
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SoundAndFury said:
Well, duh, that was the point. Anyone can throw some examples together with no nuance whatsoever to "prove" their narrative. It's that easy. But I'm glad to you are still obtuse enough to think I'm trying to prove something here rather than commenting on your "data analysis".


I like how you drum on about Lithuanian teams instead of naming the actual factor - the Latvian [semi]pro teams going down from 7 to 3 over the last 5 years alone where the only meaningful games that are being played are between the finalists of the league. To the point where talking about the "level of hockey" being played, when compared to an actual competitive 12-team league, becomes laughably pointless.

Like, we did find some common ground here. The level between Latvia and Slovakia2 over their lifetime was certainly not incomparable. But that sure as hell doesn't apply to the year 2025 and, conversely to your belief, it isn't Lithuania's fault.
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It's not "data analysis", it's data analysis. If you have a single valid counter-argument or a point to make, make it.

Again, I do not particularly care about Lithuanian hockey. I specifically mentioned the Latvian league is better, if you discount the Lithuanian teams. I don't consider them an integral part of the league and at some point they will leave or will be forced to get their shit together.

It clearly implies I'm aware of the dilution of talent. It's unfortunate and the whole setup will improve already next season, as Liepāja is confirmed to return, while Kurbads and Daugavpils are tentative.

The structure and the purpose of HS Riga has not changed, though. It's an U18 NTDP. This has not in any way changed with Lithuanian teams leaving or joining. The only major factor has rather been covid and the lack of availability of ice time, which led to an increase of younger kids leaving for Sweden and Finland en masse a few years ago.

This has been mitigated with both multiple Riga teams being integrated into the Finnish junior system as well as Liepāja and Zemgale juniors playing in Finland.

And the reason Kurbads left was to use the funds saved to build another ice rink and invest into their junior programme.

So the end result is an improvement of the Latvian junior system. The 2nd division was also transformed into a developmental/U23 league.

All of this makes the Latvian U18 national team more competitive. Not less competitive. And that is the only thing I actually do care about.

And I will remind you that we are discussing the Latvian U18 NT in this thread.
 
So why the hell did we waste so much time here? You should have said right off the bat your whole evaluation of the Latvian league relies on two teams you consider to be integral. Good luck with that.
 
SoundAndFury said:
So why the hell did we waste so much time here? You should have said right off the bat your whole evaluation of the Latvian league relies on two teams you consider to be integral. Good luck with that.
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Not two teams. The Latvian teams. Not two. I guess we should really break down the maths to the very basics here. 2+2=4.

You know, the Latvian teams as in the *Latvian* hockey league?
 
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