GDT: Latvia - Finland

[Namejs]

A do or die game for Latvia, as we need 2 points to stay alive 100% guaranteed.

Or at least 1 point is needed either if Kazakhstan loses to Norway OR Canada does not get 6/6 points. (65% chance of staying alive)

If both Germany gets defeated by USA, and Canada does not get 6/6 points, we can afford to lose this game in regulation as well. (30-35% chance)

I'm really hoping the Finns take it easy today, they've had less than 24 hours since their kast game, they have a play-off berth secured and not much of an incentive in finishing 1st in Group B either.

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[mattihp]

Finland barely scraped by yesterday. A motivated Latvia does have a shot

 

[llwyd]

Finland barely scraped by yesterday.

Well, that's one way to look at it. We have been pretty effective in shutting down offences and minimizing dangerous chances in our end. Though of course we can't score to save our lives. I would think that Finland will be its usual self tonight: hard working, well defending, a tough nut to crack by any team in the tournament. It might not be pretty but a very unpleasant opponent to anyone...

 

[Mestaruus]

I'm really hoping the Finns take it easy today, they've had less than 24 hours since their kast game, they have a play-off berth secured and not much of an incentive in finishing 1st in Group B either.

Yep those two things are known to matter in ice hockey games. Increases the chance for an upset.

One positive on the last day for Latvia is that LAT plays later than FIN-CAN game, so by then you already know if FIN helped you or not, so you don't play vs GER without knowing if there is a reward or not to get.

 

[Namejs]

Well, that's one way to look at it. We have been pretty effective in shutting down offences and minimizing dangerous chances in our end. Though of course we can't score to save our lives. I would think that Finland will be its usual self tonight: hard working, well defending, a tough nut to crack by any team in the tournament. It might not be pretty but a very unpleasant opponent to anyone...

You just described Latvia too. I would expect another low scoring game.

 

[llwyd]

You just described Latvia too. I would expect another low scoring game.

Jep, I really like Latvia, always have. Very likely a low scoring game.

 

[Lartsaman]

I'm really hoping the Finns take it easy today, they've had less than 24 hours since their kast game, they have a play-off berth secured and not much of an incentive in finishing 1st in Group B either.

You can bet on that. Back to back-games are allways hard for Finland. I can see at least a point lost in this game.

 

[Mestaruus]

Against Latvia:

80 Saku Mäenalanen – 47 Peter Tiivola – 12 Marko Anttila
6 Tony Sund – 52 Mikael Seppälä

22 Arttu Ruotsalainen – 15 Anton Lundell – 20 Niko Ojamäki
3 Olli Määttä – 7 Oliwer Kaski

21 Jere Innala – 27 Petri Kontiola – 81 Iiro Pakarinen
55 Atte Ohtamaa – 2 Ville Pokka

25 Jere Karjalainen – 13 Mikael Ruohomaa – 38 Teemu Turunen
40 Petteri Lindbohm – 39 Kim Nousiainen

Säteri

Back up goalie for Finland in this Latvia game and Finland substituted 2 forwards and 1 D-man. Resting them.

 

[SwedishFire]

I cheer for Latvia, cause I think its good for hockeyif they go to quarters, with Kazahkstan.

But I do think Finland is just to strong for Latvia, Finland together with USA seems like the strongest teams in this surprising tournament. Very nice to see some developement in lesser hockey countries.

Sorry Latvia. I think Finland got this. But we will see

 

[FiLe]

A do or die game for Latvia, as we need 2 points to stay alive 100% guaranteed.

Or at least 1 point is needed either if Kazakhstan loses to Norway OR Canada does not get 6/6 points. (65% chance of staying alive)

Not quite correct - all Latvia needs is a single point, not two, from Finland to keep their QF chances in their own hands. Latvia would then have 9 points, with the possible maximum being 12 if they beat Germany in regulation. Canada's maximum is 12, and Germany can reach 12 if they beat USA in regulation. However, if Latvia beats Germany in regulation and gets to 12, it gives them the tie-break against Germany. And they already have the tie-break against Canada.

Even in a three-way tie at 12 Latvia would come out on top. In LAT-GER-CAN subgroup, the points would be LAT 6, GER 3, CAN 0.

So if Latvia manages to squeeze a point out of Finland, they can reach the QF by beating Germany cleanly - without having to care what Germany does against USA, what Kazakhstan does against Norway or what Canada does overall.

 

[Namejs]

Not quite correct - all Latvia needs is a single point, not two, from Finland to keep their QF chances in their own hands. Latvia would then have 9 points, with the possible maximum being 12 if they beat Germany in regulation. Canada's maximum is 12, and Germany can reach 12 if they beat USA in regulation. However, if Latvia beats Germany in regulation and gets to 12, it gives them the tie-break against Germany. And they already have the tie-break against Canada.

Even in a three-way tie at 12 Latvia would come out on top. In LAT-GER-CAN subgroup, the points would be LAT 6, GER 3, CAN 0.

So if Latvia manages to squeeze a point out of Finland, they can reach the QF by beating Germany cleanly - without having to care what Germany does against USA, what Kazakhstan does against Norway or what Canada does overall.

You're right. I was thinking a 4-way or a 5-way tie would rule us out, but it would rule Germany out.

So all we need is that 1 point.

 

[Namejs]

I cheer for Latvia, cause I think its good for hockeyif they go to quarters, with Kazahkstan.

But I do think Finland is just to strong for Latvia, Finland together with USA seems like the strongest teams in this surprising tournament. Very nice to see some developement in lesser hockey countries.

Sorry Latvia. I think Finland got this. But we will see

With all due respect to Finland, they are a very well organized team with a lot of good European players, but their offensive potential is really not markedly better than the Latvian one. The goalies are on par, the forwards are almost on par and the only area where the Finns are much better is their defencemen, they can move the puck better, the transitions are smoother and more effective.

But that only means they're regular favorites here. You know, like in a regular hockey league with evenly matched teams.

 

[SwedishFire]

Not quite correct - all Latvia needs is a single point, not two, from Finland to keep their QF chances in their own hands. Latvia would then have 9 points, with the possible maximum being 12 if they beat Germany in regulation. Canada's maximum is 12, and Germany can reach 12 if they beat USA in regulation. However, if Latvia beats Germany in regulation and gets to 12, it gives them the tie-break against Germany. And they already have the tie-break against Canada.

Even in a three-way tie at 12 Latvia would come out on top. In LAT-GER-CAN subgroup, the points would be LAT 6, GER 3, CAN 0.

So if Latvia manages to squeeze a point out of Finland, they can reach the QF by beating Germany cleanly - without having to care what Germany does against USA, what Kazakhstan does against Norway or what Canada does overall.

So if Latvia beats Finland, Germany beats Latvia, is Canada out?

- No, if Latvia tales Finland, wins Germany in shootouts, and Germany wins USA. Then its done

 

[FiLe]

So if Latvia beats Finland, Germany beats Latvia, is Canada out?

Not necessarily. Canada's maximum is 12, which currently means that they can't overtake Finland and USA (with USA having the tie-break against them). They can, however, still overtake Kazakhstan, Germany and Latvia. Unfortunately, they only have the tie-break against Kazakhstan out of these three.

If both Latvia and Germany reach 12, which can happen if GER first beats USA in regulation and then LAT beats GER, Canada is definitely out. However, if only one of them reaches 12 - which is quite likely, as USA is still the favorite against GER - then Canada still has a shot if Norway forces Kazakhstan into overtime.

While Canada's eyes should mainly be in what Germany and Latvia do, the KAZ-NOR game is not of minor consequence. In fact, if Norway does well here, it will improve Canada's chances significantly. All they would need in that case is for USA to take care of Germany to have everything in their own hands again.

 

[golffuul]

OMG...that opening faceoff. Ref - "Alright guys. Don't hit me in the nuts."

 

[PanniniClaus]

Great breakout by Sund ..leads to that goal.

 

[Zub]

Jesus christ this finnish team is lost out there, they shouldn't struggle to get out their own zone vs this team, and in the ozone they kill their plays too quick.

 

[Zub]

How can it be that Jalonen can't get this team to play with even 50% of it's brains, but in 2019 he could, comparing the rosters they aint that much different in firepower.

 

[Zub]

Deserved goal by the Latvians, Finland is playing like beer leaguers.

 

[LKI]

Less goooo refs!

 

[RobRayzor]

That ref watching netflix or what.

 

[ellja3]

What the hell was that embellishment call; is Fazel really taking revenge for the flag stuff thru refs? Laughable.

 

[Zub]

I never want to see Maatta Pokka or Kaski for that matter suit up for Team Finland again after this tournament.

 

[Namejs]

What the hell was that embellishment call; is Fazel really taking revenge for the flag stuff thru refs? Laughable.

There was some slight embellishment, but most refs wouldn't call a penalty on that.

We also didn't get called on two 50/50 penalties, Finland didn't get called on that high-stick and one that could've been called hooking.

We're not being lucky in terms of penalties, but it's not like we're getting screwed by the refs, stop it with that nonsense.

 

[FiLe]

I never want to see Maatta Pokka or Kaski for that matter suit up for Team Finland again after this tournament.

A player's always exactly as good as the latest thing they do on ice, eh?

Honestly, wouldn't be surprised if Määttä makes it to the olympic team after everything he's shown in these games.