No More Subban
GHG
- Apr 28, 2010
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Sooner or later our salary cap honeymoon where Suzuki set the ceiling will be over. I wouldn't mind paying 10 million to Lane, if it locks him up for 6-8 years. When his extension begins there's no point to compare old contracts now that cap is going to 100 million and beyond. Lane and Laine, I truly wish both of these contracts will be solved as soon as possible. It will only go up from here.I really do hope we lock him up this summer after July 1st. Something I was thinking about was the looming announcement on a new Canadian TV rights deal. I believe Bettman is negotiating this now. Sportsnet has another year after this season I believe. Once that deal is announced, I believe we are going to hear lots of talk about even a higher cap increase to come.
Hutson's first year after his ELC (26/27) might be for a cap that is very close to $100M. It's scheduled to be $92.4M next year and Bettman was talking about pushing it up so the cap system is not shocked. The latest info and way to limit the cap growth was to cancel escrow payments for the rest of the season and also share extra profits to the players so they meet the 50/50 revenue split (read article below)
Hutson's new extension comes exactly when the new Canadian TV rights deal kicks in (extra $$$).
Exclusive: NHL Cancels Escrow Payments, Shares Profits With Players
The NHL cancels escrow payments for players, reflecting strong finances. A $92-93M salary cap increase is expected for 2025-26rg.org
Sooner or later our salary cap honeymoon where Suzuki set the ceiling will be over. I wouldn't mind paying 10 million to Lane, if it locks him up for 6-8 years. When his extension begins there's no point to compare old contracts now that cap is going to 100 million and beyond. Lane and Laine, I truly wish both of these contracts will be solved as soon as possible. It will only go up from here.
Yeah....managing the cap is going to be tricky. Not insurmountable. I think Dach after his current 3.36 might rise to something like 5.5 per on another 4ish years. He isn't making himself worth anymore. He will be RFA which is huge for us keeping him around. 4 years will get him to age 29 at which point he might swing for bank if he earns it. He might even only want a 1 or 2 year contract. Depending on how the next year and a half goes....I would consider a 7-8 year term for him...but I doubt that makes sense for him.I believe they will extend Hutson this summer after July. My guess says 6x $8M or 8x $9M
Laine is not getting $10M from anybody. I believe we can get him for something similar to Hutson or Suzuki. 8x $8M
Demidov is the one that might get the $10M+ contract because after his ELC, the cap will be $100M+
The rest of them will be ELC and bridges. Others who are finishing their bridges will be interesting. Xhekaj, Dach, Newhook, Heineman, Dobes, Beck, Kapanen, Hage, etc.
I think our best compete window is the next 3 years with Demidov on his ELC. After that, it might get tight.
Yeah....managing the cap is going to be tricky. Not insurmountable. I think Dach after his current 3.36 might rise to something like 5.5 per on another 4ish years. He isn't making himself worth anymore. He will be RFA which is huge for us keeping him around. 4 years will get him to age 29 at which point he might swing for bank if he earns it. He might even only want a 1 or 2 year contract. Depending on how the next year and a half goes....I would consider a 7-8 year term for him...but I doubt that makes sense for him.
Long term with a 100 million dollar cap. Ill only do cap hits of our biggest contracts.
Laine - 8 million
Suzuki - 7.875
Cole - 7.85
Slaf - 7.6
Demi - 10 - threw out a random number
Dach - 5.5
Total for Top 6 = 46.825
Wtih Suzuki and Caufield due for potential raises in 2030 and 2031....I would argue that their raises would keep them at similar cap hits to where they are now. More dollars....but similar impact and hit. That is where it will get tricky.
Lane - 9 million - hopefully for 8 years
Guhle - 5.5 million
Reinbacher - 7 million - I am projected extremely high for Reinbacher just to make this exercise more difficult
Some random RD - 8.5 million - we still need a top 4 RD
Total = 30 million
In this exercise we have 76.825 million tied up in our top 6 and top 4. These are purely fantasy land numbers, but I intentionally shot high.
We would have roughly 25 percent of our cap left to spend on our entire bottom 6 and bottom pair plus 2 goalies. If the goalies chew up a combined 12 millionish - assuming Dobes becomes and 8 million dollar man.....we are left with 12-14 million for 8-10 players.
Things will be tight. 2030 and 31 with Suzuki, Caufield and Guhle due up might be a transition year.
If we can keep Laine, Lane, Demi and mystery RD all at our "Suzuki Cap" we will be in far better shape.
Agreed. Problem for another day. One thing is for sure. With the talent that is coming...even if they make on the lower end of what is expected, we won't have room for bad contracts. No more 5.5 and 6.5 million players on our bottom 6. Even if Anderson is playing well.Well done. Gives a little look through the future window.
Maybe our best bet with our picks in the next 2 drafts is to add more grade A's. Having a few more like Hage and Reinbacher would be nice because they enter their ELC a few years after Demidov and this gives you valuable cap hits during our compete window... with several parts of the core already locked up.
One way or another, we will run into situations where we need to let someone go due to cap issues. A problem for another day.
I do think our best compete window is the next 3 years. If Demidov is as advertised, we don't really have that much holes and the dilemma is how long to wait to see how good Dach is and when we might pull the trigger on a big trade.
Agreed. Problem for another day. One thing is for sure. With the talent that is coming...even if they make on the lower end of what is expected, we won't have room for bad contracts. No more 5.5 and 6.5 million players on our bottom 6. Even if Anderson is playing well.
I think it’s more the latter, he seems tired. He’s playing a more neutered and non-dynamic game.Teams adjusting to Hutson and the PP. Tougher for him right now. Maybe the energy level is also lower. I’m not concerned at all. He will figure it out.
Yep I agree. But we knew it was bound to happen.I think it’s more the latter, he seems tired. He’s playing a more neutered and non-dynamic game.
Yep I agree. But we knew it was bound to happen.
4 nations break will do wonders for him, and for the rest of the team for that matter. The last stretch was very taxing for the entire team.
Effective cap management will be as important as talent management/ assessment going forward. These challenges and hard decisions will affect all teams.I believe they will extend Hutson this summer after July. My guess says 6x $8M or 8x $9M. Hard to say how greedy his agent is when the benchmark on our roster is Suzuki. Growing cap yes but a $9M+ contract after one season? Possible but I don't believe so.
Laine is not getting $10M from anybody... with the up/down rollercoaster ride he has been on. I believe we can get him for something similar to Hutson or Suzuki. 8x $8M
Demidov is the one that might get the $10M+ contract because after his ELC, the cap will be $100M+
The rest of them will be ELC and bridges. Others who are finishing their bridges will be interesting. Xhekaj, Dach, Newhook, Heineman, Dobes, Beck, Kapanen, Hage, etc.
I think our best compete window is the next 3 years with Demidov on his ELC. After that, it might get tight.
Effective cap management will be as important as talent management/ assessment going forward. These challenges and hard decisions will affect all teams.
As professional sport is tied by the hip to the prevailing status of the economy, it will interesting to watch what happens if the predicted downturn in the economy ( tariffs, growing deficits, etc.) occurs.
I manage a large amateur sport organization which has close to 50 full time employees, supports dozens of other independent contractors and hires up to 1,000 part-time workers when we deliver a major sport event. In light of the unsettled political and cascading economic situations we have already put in place contingency plans to reduce our work force by up to 25% if our current levels of revenue are adversely impacted. I am sure other large organizations have similar plans in place. That presents a lot of people who will no longer be able to buy tickets or merchandise from their favourite team nor the products of businesses that support those teams.The economy could be an issue but doesn't that apply to the average to below average household financials? Most of these people can't afford to watch games or buy jersey's as we speak today. The ones who are above the average line will continue to fill the seats. It has to get real bad to affect the major sports IMO.
Little disappointed you couldn't fit 'burgeoning' in there somewhere
The All-Encompassing, All-Consuming, All-Burgeoning-Star-Lane-Hutson Milestones and Records Watch Thread
If I’m advising Hughes, I’m telling him to be cautious and prudent before committing vast amounts over extended periods in these very unsettled times. Erroneous assumptions are the bedrock of most business failures.
Regardless of the formula, if the revenue basis is diminished, it will adversely affect both the teams and the players. We've all lived in inflationary times for the past half century. We have to be prepared to live and thrive in deflationary times. Some businesses will do better than others. It's never a bad time to be circumspect.Revenue sharing and escrow are there for a reason. If revenues go down, escrow goes up to compensate losses to fit the 50/50 split.
Habs are heading towards a strong contending window. Now's not the time to be super thrifty and circumspect, especially with what looks like a future franchise dman.
Teams adjusting to Hutson and the PP. Tougher for him right now. Maybe the energy level is also lower. I’m not concerned at all. He will figure it out.
Regardless of the formula, if the revenue basis is diminished, it will adversely affect both the teams and the players.
I manage a large amateur sport organization which has close to 50 full time employees, supports dozens of other independent contractors and hires up to 1,000 part-time workers when we deliver a major sport event. In light of the unsettled political and cascading economic situations we have already put in place contingency plans to reduce our work force by up to 25% if our current levels of revenue are adversely impacted. I am sure other large organizations have similar plans in place. That presents a lot of people who will no longer be able to buy tickets or merchandise from their favourite team nor the products of businesses that support those teams.
If I’m advising Hughes, I’m telling him to be cautious and prudent before committing vast amounts over extended periods in these very unsettled times. Erroneous assumptions are the bedrock of most business failures.
I've been trying to tell my g/f and friends that a potential storm is coming but I get laughed at. I'm not a fan of reactive type people and they drive me nuts. They whine and complain when they got to react but ignore that they should have been proactive before. Always looking for someone to help them in their reactive ways while they follow the herd of sheep.
If you got to know me well as a poster, I don't follow the herd of sheep. They can party on their bandwagon all day long but don't expect me to join that glamours party. I'm an independent thinker more than a follower.
Thank you for sharing this. I did have some gut feeling about some sort of recession to come.
I land in the same boat.
People are truly blind to how bad this situation is going to get if we continue down the “worst case” path we appear to be going down.
Massive short-term inflation followed by massive deflation and further erosion of living standards for a lot of people, so many people are leveraged by their homes in Canada now it has the potential to be absolutely disastrous.
People just don’t have the liquid assets to cover downturns anymore, except people that have planned for it or have reached the finish line so to speak. That’s a very small percentage of the Canadian population in 2025.
I agree regarding Dach. He's likely to sign a reasonable but financially healthy (20+ Million never hurt anyone and isn't exactly monopoly money) bet on yourself for one final big cash in contract, likely for another 4 years that takes him through his 28th birthday.Yeah....managing the cap is going to be tricky. Not insurmountable. I think Dach after his current 3.36 might rise to something like 5.5 per on another 4ish years. He isn't making himself worth anymore. He will be RFA which is huge for us keeping him around. 4 years will get him to age 29 at which point he might swing for bank if he earns it. He might even only want a 1 or 2 year contract. Depending on how the next year and a half goes....I would consider a 7-8 year term for him...but I doubt that makes sense for him.
Long term with a 100 million dollar cap. Ill only do cap hits of our biggest contracts.
Laine - 8 million
Suzuki - 7.875
Cole - 7.85
Slaf - 7.6
Demi - 10 - threw out a random number
Dach - 5.5
Total for Top 6 = 46.825
Wtih Suzuki and Caufield due for potential raises in 2030 and 2031....I would argue that their raises would keep them at similar cap hits to where they are now. More dollars....but similar impact and hit. That is where it will get tricky.
Lane - 9 million - hopefully for 8 years
Guhle - 5.5 million
Reinbacher - 7 million - I am projected extremely high for Reinbacher just to make this exercise more difficult
Some random RD - 8.5 million - we still need a top 4 RD
Total = 30 million
In this exercise we have 76.825 million tied up in our top 6 and top 4. These are purely fantasy land numbers, but I intentionally shot high.
We would have roughly 25 percent of our cap left to spend on our entire bottom 6 and bottom pair plus 2 goalies. If the goalies chew up a combined 12 millionish - assuming Dobes becomes and 8 million dollar man.....we are left with 12-14 million for 8-10 players.
Things will be tight. 2030 and 31 with Suzuki, Caufield and Guhle due up might be a transition year.
If we can keep Laine, Lane, Demi and mystery RD all at our "Suzuki Cap" we will be in far better shape.
Excellent breakdown Scriptor. I purposefully shot high on projections. It will be something to watch moving forward and it is a good example of why teams who wish to remain competitive for a long time, need a constant re-supply of ELC's and lower cost prospects that can move in to fill future roles.I agree regarding Dach. He's likely to sign a reasonable but financially healthy (20+ Million never hurt anyone and isn't exactly monopoly money) bet on yourself for one final big cash in contract, likely for another 4 years that takes him through his 28th birthday.
A jump to 5M or so as an average salary for the length of that contract (an actual amount that rises as the deal draws to its end -- 4M, 4.5M, 5.5M, 6M -- to bet on the player continuing to improve).
A strong four years with Dach constantly improving and confirming himself as a bonafide top-6 C in the final two years of that deal could set the table for a final long term contract where he finally cashes in big time. Those contracts are worthwhile because there has been a steady progression and the odds of falling off qa cliff in performance are next to nothing.
For his 29th, 30th, 31st, 32nd, 33rd, 34th, 35th and 36th birthdays, he could likely sign a 55M to 56M contract with an AAV around 7M, even if the final two years of his contract might see that process tag become a little expensive compared to the diminishing production level.
Keeping reclamation projects like Laine to "Suzuki Cap" levels is key. Signing players beyond Suzuki levels is risky, value wise, especially if they don't bring significantly higher production levels.
Demidov at 10M, if he doesn't become more than a PPG player, something Suzuki is establishing himself as being, would be overspending, IMO.
Hutson at 9M would also be overspending, IMO. I know we are a few years removed from when Hughes signed his 2nd NHL deal, but signing Hutson at Suzuki money for the time being (even if only for 5 or 6 years) would be ideal, maybe at up to 8M (again for 5 or 6 years).
It's not like we are signing Hutson for chump change at that money and it does enable Hughes to ice a roster more likely to challenge for a Cup a few years from now.
Given the type of D that Reinbacher is, I think that we could sign him closer to Guhle money than 7M a year, in the end, again, so that the player has more room to renegotiate sooner if his production levels explode, on a 6-year term.
Some random right D at 8.5M seems a little expensive, even if we are targeting a top-4 RHD.
AN UNFA like Pionk at 7M, 7.5M for 7 years would be entirely doable and, given the complementary shutdown Ds we currently have (Guhle for Pionk and Reinbacher for Hutson, spending 26M (7.5 + 7.5 + 5.5 + 5.5 =676 m 26M) would be smart allocation of Cap space for a solid top-4 over the medium to long term.
7M more for Ds #5 and #6, plus a 2M 7th D would round out the Cap cost for the D-Corps at 35M.
No more than 10M for the G position (less, ideally) would leave 55M for the forwards on a soon-to-be 100M Cap ceiling:
Suzuki: 7.875M
Laine: 7.875M
Caufield: 7.85M
Slafkovsky: 7.6M
Demidov (hoping for a 100-point player): 10M
Dach: 5M
Total: 46.2M
With only 8.8M left over for 7 forwards, we'd be in a heap of cap trouble. Ideally, we,d need to find a shutdown D around 5M to play with Guhle instead, banking 2.5M to goo with the remaining 8.8M in Cap space.
The 7th D would need to be a youngster or a league minimum veteran around 1M, to save another Million.
One D would need to be around 2.5M on the 3rd pairing, rather than having two Ds at 3.5M to save another Million.
Keeping the cost down for the Gs at 8M, rather than 10M, would become paramount in order to ice a better group in front of the Gs. Another 2M savings.
With 15.3M now available for 7 players left to sign, we'd have a better situation, but it would still be tight.
Hughes will need to juggle a mix of budding youngsters and Cap friendly veterans to keep this group together over time.
A talented kid line for the third line will, IMO, need to become a staple of the Hughes plan in order to generate offense throughout the top-9.
So far, we are in a good cap situation because of Hughes. He will need to continue providing the same Cap flexibility, perhaps using the recent cap approach with sums paid after the contract expires with players in order to squeeze more talent into the lineup as we become true contenders?