Speculation: Lalonde

[saska sault]

Be surprised if he is fired this year unless it's a complete melt down and we are clearly in the basement and out of playoff contention by game 40-50. Even then... he may get the full year just because I don't see Yzerman changing courses mid season.

 

[The Zermanator]

No he did not.

He was the only one who tried to do something about it.

Interesting that they suspended him for trying to do something about it... Usually punishments result from wrongdoing.

 

[The Zermanator]

OK well that blue line was bad overall last year.

So if what we have this year is a “wash” to what we had last year, expect more of the same.

Bringing in Kane and Tarasenko isn’t gonna change that.

That's the thing though, "expect more of the same". That blue line you refer to as 'bad overall' was enough to get us within a point of a playoff berth. That's not to say there isn't a lot of room for improvement, there clearly is. But the reason we didn't make the playoffs was the extended losing streaks in December and March/April, not the composition of the blue line. And unless something goes seriously awry with Edvinsson, our blue line is all but guaranteed to be better this season as is.

So yeah, our blue line should be adequate to make the playoffs if Lalonde doesn't allow a team collapse to drag on for over a month, let alone on two separate occasions. That falls on his shoulders, not any individual player.

 

[Frk It]

That's the thing though, "expect more of the same". That blue line you refer to as 'bad overall' was enough to get us within a point of a playoff berth. That's not to say there isn't a lot of room for improvement, there clearly is. But the reason we didn't make the playoffs was the extended losing streaks in December and March/April, not the composition of the blue line. And unless something goes seriously awry with Edvinsson, our blue line is all but guaranteed to be better this season as is.

So yeah, our blue line should be adequate to make the playoffs if Lalonde doesn't allow a team collapse to drag on for over a month, let alone on two separate occasions. That falls on his shoulders, not any individual player.

I mean, the team was scoring at an unsustainable rate all year and regressed as expected over the last month or two of the season.

That covered up a lot of issues with the back end.

Yzerman has talked a lot about cleaning up goals against. Not sure how the moves this off season accomplished that, and if this team struggles, personally I would say that is more on the lack of quality players on the blue line than anything else.

But that’s just my opinion here.

 

[The Zermanator]

I mean, the team was scoring at an unsustainable rate all year and regressed as expected over the last month or two of the season.

That covered up a lot of issues with the back end.

Yzerman has talked a lot about cleaning up goals against. Not sure how the moves this off season accomplished that, and if this team struggles, personally I would say that is more on the lack of quality players on the blue line than anything else.

But that’s just my opinion here.

Subbing Edvinsson in for Walman will help with goals against, possibly immediately. Walman wasn't exactly dependable in that regard. I doubt Yzerman talking about cleaning up goals against and Walman being shipped out at the first opportunity are unrelated, despite whatever else may have been going on there that we don't know about. Adding a guy like Motte should help too in terms of deployment in specific situations, he adds a nice dimension.

In terms of scoring at an unsustainable rate, I don't know that we can point to a specific player who scored well outside of what was expected of them. I'm curious which players/areas you expect a regression. But whatever you have in mind, you have to balance those pessimistic factors with the optimistic ones too:

• Raymond is blooming into a star, has he reached his ceiling at 70 points? Many doubt that, myself included. I've seen 90 points bandied around here and I can't say I find it unrealistic.
• Maybe Debrincat's puck luck changes and all those posts he hit last season become goals instead.
• Berggren is a wild card, but I think he has the ability to provide virtually everything Sprong did, possibly as early as this season, with potential for more growth.
• Tarasenko at the very least replaces Perron's offense, if he doesn't surpass it.
• And now we have the benefit of Kane for an entire season (following a full offseason) rather than the 50 games we had him last season.

So I'm not here pumping the tires of the D corps like they're an impenetrable fortress. We're likely both on the same page on exactly where the blue line falls short and needs improvement. And we've definitely lost some offense with Ghost, Fabbri, etc gone. But the minutes those guys played will be given to someone else this coming season and I think there's enough talent there to at least replace the lost production.

The improvements were marginal this offseason, no argument there, but there were improvements. And honestly I'll take the marginal improvements over a big improvement coupled with an albatross contract like we saw handed out like candy in free agency. So if last season's squad was good enough to make the playoffs, and would have were it not for those losing streaks, then this season's roster should be more than good enough to get over the hump.

 

[Henkka]

I really think biggest impact and improvement from defence will come from Seider raising his level and rest of the 5 will be as equal as last season.

Could see Seider playing NHL highest minutes at next seasons. 26+ minutes, which no one did at last season. John Carlson was 25:54min.

 

[SoupGuru]

Player leadership is a wildcard too. The coaches need to come up with a successful system and then the players need to execute it. I find it hard to assign blame for a lot of things because I don't know where the failure is. A ten game losing streak: coaching failure or execution failure? It's the context that matters and we don't typically have enough context.

 

[Frk It]

Subbing Edvinsson in for Walman will help with goals against, possibly immediately. Walman wasn't exactly dependable in that regard. I doubt Yzerman talking about cleaning up goals against and Walman being shipped out at the first opportunity are unrelated, despite whatever else may have been going on there that we don't know about. Adding a guy like Motte should help too in terms of deployment in specific situations, he adds a nice dimension.

In terms of scoring at an unsustainable rate, I don't know that we can point to a specific player who scored well outside of what was expected of them. I'm curious which players/areas you expect a regression. But whatever you have in mind, you have to balance those pessimistic factors with the optimistic ones too:

• Raymond is blooming into a star, has he reached his ceiling at 70 points? Many doubt that, myself included. I've seen 90 points bandied around here and I can't say I find it unrealistic.
• Maybe Debrincat's puck luck changes and all those posts he hit last season become goals instead.
• Berggren is a wild card, but I think he has the ability to provide virtually everything Sprong did, possibly as early as this season, with potential for more growth.
• Tarasenko at the very least replaces Perron's offense, if he doesn't surpass it.
• And now we have the benefit of Kane for an entire season (following a full offseason) rather than the 50 games we had him last season.

So I'm not here pumping the tires of the D corps like they're an impenetrable fortress. We're likely both on the same page on exactly where the blue line falls short and needs improvement. And we've definitely lost some offense with Ghost, Fabbri, etc gone. But the minutes those guys played will be given to someone else this coming season and I think there's enough talent there to at least replace the lost production.

The improvements were marginal this offseason, no argument there, but there were improvements. And honestly I'll take the marginal improvements over a big improvement coupled with an albatross contract like we saw handed out like candy in free agency. So if last season's squad was good enough to make the playoffs, and would have were it not for those losing streaks, then this season's roster should be more than good enough to get over the hump.

I just wish we were sitting in a spot where we were saying, yeah this team is for sure better and if there’s not improvement then that’s on Lalonde.

I don’t feel that way at the moment.

I know UFA contracts are never the most palatable, but I would feel much better about things if we had a Pesce or Roy to pencil on the middle pair to take some of that burden with Seider.

I really think biggest impact and improvement from defence will come from Seider raising his level and rest of the 5 will be as equal as last season.

Could see Seider playing NHL highest minutes at next seasons. 26+ minutes, which no one did at last season. John Carlson was 25:54min.

We have refused to do this with him up until this point. We gave him exclusively the tough matchups last year without giving him the easy ones to balance it out.

 

[Ulysses31]

lalonde has yr n change leash.

if drw underperform this season, then stuggle in 25-26 he will get fired then.

no chance he fired this season.

 

[GoBoltz56]

Isn't this the final year of his deal?

Honestly not sure. If so, he could be given short term deals, but I don't think he's on the hot seat this season.

 

[Oddbob]

I don't think his leash is all that short. This isn't a really good team that missed the playoffs, it is a rebuilding team with lots of holes that missed the playoffs after doing better goal wise than expected. I am fine if we go with someone else as I don't think I like the style he is trying to bring, but I think he is easily safe through this season unless we are bottom 5 bad or something.

 

[The Zermanator]

I just wish we were sitting in a spot where we were saying, yeah this team is for sure better and if there’s not improvement then that’s on Lalonde.

I don’t feel that way at the moment.

I know UFA contracts are never the most palatable, but I would feel much better about things if we had a Pesce or Roy to pencil on the middle pair to take some of that burden with Seider.

For me, it's not even a matter of improving so much as it's a matter of not letting the floor fall out from under their feet. Those were periods of shockingly bad hockey that dragged on for way too long, and it happened twice in one season. Whose responsibility would that be if not the coach's? He can't let that happen again, period. If he can't adequately motivate and mentally prepare his team, we need someone who can. And to head off any potential claim (not necessarily from you) of "they're professional athletes, they should be able to motivate themselves", there's a difference between an athlete motivating themselves as an individual and a coach motivating a team as a cohesive unit. The team looked absolutely rudderless during those stretches to the point it left you wondering if there was anyone at the wheel. That falls on Lalonde.

In terms of the UFAs, it's hard to say. Pesce and Roy were the only major dman deals I didn't have much of an issue with. But we have no way of knowing if they were even open to coming to Detroit. Pesce especially gives me the impression he specifically had his heart set on New Jersey. But assuming they were open to it, we also don't know how much it would have taken to convince them to come to Detroit. Do you still want them if it takes another million and an extra year? We ultimately don't know if they would have come to Detroit, and how much it would have cost to do it. And we can't just worry about next season, we need to think about down the line too. I don't think the team would have been better served in the grand scheme of things by taking on a big contract that helps us next season if it's going to cause cap problems in 4 or 5 seasons when the team might actually be contending and need every bit of that cap space.

But in terms of next season, we can't just lean on hypotheticals or alternate timelines or whatever our ideal scenario is. The team is what it is. It has some lumps granted, but there's a lot going for it too. And like I said, I think a marginal improvement on last season's team. That's what Lalonde has to work with. If he can't form a consistently cohesive unit out of the roster we have, then he should be replaced with someone who can. Would love to see Gallant in that event.

We have refused to do this with him up until this point. We gave him exclusively the tough matchups last year without giving him the easy ones to balance it out.

I think that's where Edvinsson will have a huge impact, possibly as soon as this season. If he can lock down and carry that second pairing that will open things up for Seider considerably. Seider entered the league in his D+3 and was basically a #1 dman immediately. Now Seider is a freak of nature, but Edvinsson is no slouch himself. He'll be entering his D+4 so I don't think it's unreasonable or unrealistic to think he'll be able to anchor the 2nd pairing this season, and sooner than later at that.

 

[14ari13]

Out: Walman and Ghostisbehere

In: Gustafsson, Edvinsson (likely improved), and Johansson

Seems like a wash to me. And depending on how much Edvinsson has developed and whether Johansson can carve out a role for himself, may be appreciably better. So while we may not have gotten that top 4 dman we wanted (yet, at least), I struggle to see how that would be the cause when that wasn't the issue last year.

After witnessing last season's two major losing streaks, which IMO were largely attributable to the coach since it was a team problem and not an individual player(s) problem, a bad effort out of the gate should be attributed to the coach as well.

Seider should be better

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

If things go really sideways (multiple wheels fall off) in the first half of the season, I can see him getting canned. He is clearly a place holder in the grand scheme of things. Cooper is the one Yzerman really wants in the end.

 

[13to40]

Lalonde is 100% on the hot seat, this season is make or break for him in Detroit. Couple reasons why I think that:

1) The team missed the playoffs by one single point last season. Were it not for two, I repeat, two prolonged losing streaks where the entire team played like garbage, they would have made the playoffs. It wasn't a matter of a handful of players you could legitimately point to and scapegoat, it was essentially the entire team. That's on the coach. If that happens again this season he's gone.​

2) We've heard rumblings about Yzerman pulling rank and laying down the law with Lalonde in terms of some roster decisions. I don't recall exactly what, but if I remember correctly Walman was one such example. GMs who have full faith in their coach don't interfere like that.​

This team is slightly better than last season's team. Kane is now familiar with the system and organization and has a full offseason to prepare physically. Tarasenko is a clear upgrade on Perron. If Edvinsson isn't an upgrade on Walman fresh out of the box (which I think he is), he will be clearly better than Walman by mid-season at the latest IMO. I can't help but think Johansson will prove himself more useful and reliable than Maatta/Petry in short order. Gustafsson and Ghostisbehere are a wash. Likewise with Sprong and Berggren. Talbot and Lyon splitting starts should be a much more reliable tandem than last season. We can reasonably expect continued development from Seider, Raymond, Johansson, and Berggren as well. And that's not even considering the possibility that Kasper and/or Danielson surprise at camp and force their way onto the team.

So Lalonde has a team that's at least as good as last season's and could end up being a good deal better if certain factors go in our favour. I think Yzerman's expectation for this season is to make the playoffs. If the team suffers another prolonged losing streak, or are not performing to expectations and are not in a playoff position by mid-season, I think we see a change.

There are 4 possible scenarios in my mind:

1) The team meets expectations. Lalonde keeps his job.​

​

2) The team struggles out of the gate. Lalonde is replaced early in the season.​

​

3) The team fails to meet expectations and is not in a playoff position come January. Lalonde is replaced mid-season.​

​

4) The team straddles the line between meeting and not meeting expectations over the course of the season, popping in and out of a playoff spot. The team ultimately falls short again. Lalonde is replaced in the offseason.​

Could not agree more with this.

I think the team’s success or lack there of, will come from the inability to defend and keep the puck out of the net.

Not super confident with the goalies made available to the team to start the season.

Talbot bouncing back is a long shot in the dark and Lyon playing at the same level he did last season is asking for a lot as well.

Will be another exciting season nonetheless.

 

[Frk It]

For me, it's not even a matter of improving so much as it's a matter of not letting the floor fall out from under their feet. Those were periods of shockingly bad hockey that dragged on for way too long, and it happened twice in one season. Whose responsibility would that be if not the coach's? He can't let that happen again, period. If he can't adequately motivate and mentally prepare his team, we need someone who can. And to head off any potential claim (not necessarily from you) of "they're professional athletes, they should be able to motivate themselves", there's a difference between an athlete motivating themselves as an individual and a coach motivating a team as a cohesive unit. The team looked absolutely rudderless during those stretches to the point it left you wondering if there was anyone at the wheel. That falls on Lalonde.

I agree with you, and this is my #1 concern or issue with Lalonde.

I think a good coach provides a stabilizing presence to where you don’t see such a variance in level of play.

In terms of the UFAs, it's hard to say. Pesce and Roy were the only major dman deals I didn't have much of an issue with. But we have no way of knowing if they were even open to coming to Detroit. Pesce especially gives me the impression he specifically had his heart set on New Jersey. But assuming they were open to it, we also don't know how much it would have taken to convince them to come to Detroit. Do you still want them if it takes another million and an extra year? We ultimately don't know if they would have come to Detroit, and how much it would have cost to do it. And we can't just worry about next season, we need to think about down the line too. I don't think the team would have been better served in the grand scheme of things by taking on a big contract that helps us next season if it's going to cause cap problems in 4 or 5 seasons when the team might actually be contending and need every bit of that cap space.


I think that's where Edvinsson will have a huge impact, possibly as soon as this season. If he can lock down and carry that second pairing that will open things up for Seider considerably. Seider entered the league in his D+3 and was basically a #1 dman immediately. Now Seider is a freak of nature, but Edvinsson is no slouch himself. He'll be entering his D+4 so I don't think it's unreasonable or unrealistic to think he'll be able to anchor the 2nd pairing this season, and sooner than later at that.

I think it’s that much harder to anchor a pairing when you don’t have at least a suitable partner to play with.

I don’t know that I would consider Chiarot a suitable partner on a top pairing or Gustafson a suitable partner for a middle pairing.

We have literally seen Seider have a very hard time with Chiarot already.

 

[heyfolks]

Berube will likely be one of the top available head coaches this summer, so if the Red Wings want to make a change, the sooner, the better. Other names to watch are Lane Lambert and Sergei Fedorov; both have obvious ties to Yzerman. Derek Lalonde is finishing year two of his three-year deal.Apr 2, 2024

 

[heyfolks]

Unless the wheels fall of, he isn't in any danger. Kane wouldn't return to an uncertain environment. Others spoke of discussions before they signed. So I don't see him losing the room.

He has improved in both years. Should the Wings miss the post season, he may not be offered another contract.

Simon will be a huge upgrade over Walman on D. His play will also improve that of Mo's, who was covering for Walman or put in a bad spot by Jake. I also believe AJ will displace Petry (pushing him the #7 slot). Not leaps and bounds better, but certainly moving in the right direction. Trouba - After reading about his wife's residency program and young child, the only way I see him in Detroit is with the Wings taking extraordinary measures to allow him time in NY < ala Brad Stuart.

Not being discussed but Talbot should be a big improvement in net. It is more about who can perform as the #2. Husso is do or die, but will the Wings carry 3? If not, I would go with Lyon (simply because of Ville's chronic injury issues).

Kane, full year. Tarasanko, Raymond breaking out, Danielson taking over the #2 center spot. Things are trending in the right direction.


He will be in the D all year. Buy your post season seats now, before the rush.

 

[tabness]

Honestly as much as I'd love to get Gallant here, it's brutal to think about him inevitably getting fired by Yzerman somewhere along the line.

If we going to bring Gallant in do it when we have a very strong contending team and hopefully win a cup or two or few

 

[The Zermanator]

Could not agree more with this.

I think the team’s success or lack there of, will come from the inability to defend and keep the puck out of the net.

Not super confident with the goalies made available to the team to start the season.

Talbot bouncing back is a long shot in the dark and Lyon playing at the same level he did last season is asking for a lot as well.

Will be another exciting season nonetheless.

I'm a bit more optimistic about it. Swapping out Reimer who is often like a headless chicken out there with Talbot should be a big improvement by itself. The guy's been a .910+ goalie for virtually his entire career. Wasn't our team save percentage hovering just over .900 last season? So should be a decent improvement there if Talbot provides what he has provided pretty consistently throughout his career. And hopefully Lyon will be more consistent since he won't be exhausted from being leaned on as hard as he was at times last season. Husso likely continues to be a non-factor.

Hoping a little more reliability and consistency in net combined with the arrival of Edvinsson will lead to a noticeably better defensive scheme next season.

 

[dalem177]

We'll probably start hot like every year.

Oh no! Entertaining hockey! I'll be pissed.

 

[The Zermanator]

I agree with you, and this is my #1 concern or issue with Lalonde.

I think a good coach provides a stabilizing presence to where you don’t see such a variance in level of play.

I think it’s that much harder to anchor a pairing when you don’t have at least a suitable partner to play with.

I don’t know that I would consider Chiarot a suitable partner on a top pairing or Gustafson a suitable partner for a middle pairing.

We have literally seen Seider have a very hard time with Chiarot already.

That's true, the lack of an ideal partner for Edvinsson is a concern. But then again that didn't really hold Seider back in his rookie season. I think if a guy's got it, he's got it. So we may not have that ideal partner for Edvinsson on the 2nd pairing, someone like Pesce or Roy like you mentioned would have been great for that role, but we do have relatively competent placeholders for the time being. He showed some decent chemistry with Petry, and Maatta is just generally a quietly competent player. So two options there.

I agree that Gustafsson wouldn't be the best partner since they both lean towards being puckmovers and I'd prefer Edvinsson to assume that role on his pairing. And we will see whether we get 2023/24 Chariot or 2022/23 Chiarot next season. Hopefully Chiarot can continue to do well in a deferential support role with Seider like he did last season. But yes if he goes back to how he played in 22/23 he's not really a good partner for anybody.

I think the big wild card in all this is Johansson. We were hearing last season how highly Johansson was considered by his coaches and teammates and was a leader on Grand Rapids' blue line, and how mature his game was. Perhaps more so than even Edvinsson. So would not be shocked if he carves out a good role for himself. Will be interesting to see what happens and how he fits in.

But finally there's also the unknown which is that we may very well still see a move this offseason. There's still 3 months to go. I think we probably both hope it does happen at some point. And with the apparently serious efforts to work out some deal for Trouba, safe to say Yzerman sees the exact same deficiency on that blue line as you and I do. I doubt those efforts died just because the Trouba deal fell through. I think there's a decent chance we see a move for a right-handed dman for that second pairing before the season starts.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

We'll probably start hot like every year.

And that's fine by me. Let's sustain it better this time around.

 

[Sadekuuro]

For me, it's not even a matter of improving so much as it's a matter of not letting the floor fall out from under their feet. Those were periods of shockingly bad hockey that dragged on for way too long, and it happened twice in one season. Whose responsibility would that be if not the coach's? He can't let that happen again, period. If he can't adequately motivate and mentally prepare his team, we need someone who can. And to head off any potential claim (not necessarily from you) of "they're professional athletes, they should be able to motivate themselves", there's a difference between an athlete motivating themselves as an individual and a coach motivating a team as a cohesive unit. The team looked absolutely rudderless during those stretches to the point it left you wondering if there was anyone at the wheel. That falls on Lalonde.

I'm with you here. I'm usually among the last to complain about coaching and some of what I saw last year had me going "man, I don't know about this guy." By no means has he been handed an amazing roster (and that's still the most important thing) but it's still up to him to make good use of what he has.

 

[jkutswings]

So if last season's squad was good enough to make the playoffs, and would have were it not for those losing streaks, then this season's roster should be more than good enough to get over the hump.

I don't think it's unreasonable to expect the current roster to equal or surpass last year's point total. But last year everybody else in the playoff hunt was just like Detroit in doing their best attempt to fall down the stairs.

This year New Jersey should be better. Washington loaded up for one last retool with Ovechkin. Pittsburgh should still be in the mix. And it only takes one of all the possible competitors to click, and make it tougher for the Wings to get it done.

There's a good chance Detroit gets at least 92 points. But it might take 96-98 to get in this year.