Lalonde is 100% on the hot seat, this season is make or break for him in Detroit. Couple reasons why I think that:
1) The team missed the playoffs by one single point last season. Were it not for two, I repeat, two prolonged losing streaks where the entire team played like garbage, they would have made the playoffs. It wasn't a matter of a handful of players you could legitimately point to and scapegoat, it was essentially the entire team. That's on the coach. If that happens again this season he's gone.
2) We've heard rumblings about Yzerman pulling rank and laying down the law with Lalonde in terms of some roster decisions. I don't recall exactly what, but if I remember correctly Walman was one such example. GMs who have full faith in their coach don't interfere like that.
This team is slightly better than last season's team. Kane is now familiar with the system and organization and has a full offseason to prepare physically. Tarasenko is a clear upgrade on Perron. If Edvinsson isn't an upgrade on Walman fresh out of the box (which I think he is), he will be clearly better than Walman by mid-season at the latest IMO. I can't help but think Johansson will prove himself more useful and reliable than Maatta/Petry in short order. Gustafsson and Ghostisbehere are a wash. Likewise with Sprong and Berggren. Talbot and Lyon splitting starts should be a much more reliable tandem than last season. We can reasonably expect continued development from Seider, Raymond, Johansson, and Berggren as well. And that's not even considering the possibility that Kasper and/or Danielson surprise at camp and force their way onto the team.
So Lalonde has a team that's at least as good as last season's and could end up being a good deal better if certain factors go in our favour. I think Yzerman's expectation for this season is to make the playoffs. If the team suffers another prolonged losing streak, or are not performing to expectations and are not in a playoff position by mid-season, I think we see a change.
There are 4 possible scenarios in my mind:
1) The team meets expectations. Lalonde keeps his job.
2) The team struggles out of the gate. Lalonde is replaced early in the season.
3) The team fails to meet expectations and is not in a playoff position come January. Lalonde is replaced mid-season.
4) The team straddles the line between meeting and not meeting expectations over the course of the season, popping in and out of a playoff spot. The team ultimately falls short again. Lalonde is replaced in the offseason.