Value of: Laine to Seattle

[Indy18]

Waddell already said he's not going to treat this as a cap dump and want a hockey trade. Means looking for a 1 for 1 and not prospects (didn't rule out retention). Still when he said "right now we are all playing nice in the sandbox" that's him basically telling Laine's camp if there's no market we are not going pay for people to take you off our hands so see you in the fall. We are not going to give him away.

 

[JohnnyJacket13]

How much value do you think Laine has if all you are adding is a 2nd rounder and an undersized Q scorer or B/C level prospect?

I’m not sure where this perception that Laine has “negative” value comes from. Sure he has some risk involved with acquiring him, but he’s going to be healthy and is worthy of taking a risk considering what he can be. He’s worth more than what you seem to value him.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1801009863536832986

https://x.com/i/web/status/1801011179365523927

 

[Patty Ice]

I’m not sure where this perception that Laine has “negative” value comes from

I'm not suggesting he does but, aside from requesting a trade out, he is an expensive player coming off another injury and other issues. He's a gamble at this point as to what you are getting especially since it's been a few years since he has had a strong injury-free offensive season (I still believe he is capable of he's engaged/healthy) so that is going to have a major hit to his value. I'll pay for production not pace. For example, if the Sharks were to make a play for him, I would hope that the 14th overall wouldn't be available.

The most I'd be willing to offer is Halttunen (similar skillset but a store brand version), 42nd overall, and ready to play guy like Bordeleau or Gushchin. A similar version of what you were offering for the 8th overall ie not enough for a top 20 pick.

Or we can go crazy and do Laine (no retention) + 4th overall for Eklund, Bordeleau/Gushchin, Halttunen, 14th overall, 33rd overall, and 42nd overall. (NOTE: Eklund and 14th overall only available with the 4th in the deal.)

 

[Dead Coyote]

I'm not suggesting he does but, aside from requesting a trade out, he is an expensive player coming off another injury and other issues. He's a gamble at this point as to what you are getting especially since it's been a few years since he has had a strong injury-free offensive season (I still believe he is capable of he's engaged/healthy) so that is going to have a major hit to his value. I'll pay for production not pace.

He wasn't injured last year. That would be two years ago now.

Also:

Okay, be prepared to pony up for a player that has had 2/8 seasons at less than 50 points. By the way, Laine is 141st all time on points before 26 and is 25th among points before 26 among active players. He's also 12th in Goals before 26 among active players and 77th all time.

Now I know you don't care about pace, but I thought you might want to know that he's 113th all time in G/GP before 26, and 253rd all time in P/GP before 26. Among active players he is 11th in G/GP and 46th in P/GP before 26.

Players with similar totals such as him at that time in their careers might include Tyler Seguin, Sebastien Aho, Vlad Tarasenko, Alex Debrincat, Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point, etc. All of which have less G/GP than Laine does, and even with Laine's two seasons included where he did not put up a "normal" ppg when he played, the difference between him and the highest PPG player on that list (Aho at .9) is 47 points.

So what did you want to give up for him again?

I think Borgen for Laine is a solid start to a deal, but I think Laine is worth more than that even with his down seasons. I don't see 8th overall being included but I do think there is some need of an asset a bit below that in value or two as a sweetener. I could also see a hockey trade with Borgen + a winger going for Laine + picks or prospects.

 

[majormajor]

Seattle and especially Columbus are both in a situation where they have too many wingers, and over the next few years, they'll have to move some of them out. I can't see a deal for either team where they add a winger without sending out a winger. Maybe for Seattle, they could add a cheap 4th line winger, MAYBE, but that's about it. So "Laine for (not a winger)" isn't going to work IMO.

Expand the deal to include a winger, and also add something else to balance it out. I think the easiest winger to move for Seattle is probably Tanev. "Laine for Borgen and Tanev", maybe. Not saying I like the OP trade or agree with the value, but at least this version of it seems closer to making sense I think.

I agree that a veteran winger, especially if they have leadership qualities, would ideally be included.

I'll point out an important difference though between the two clubs when it comes to the winger glut. Columbus has too many young wingers, and Seattle too many old. Seattle just has to get the right number for this year, after that several contracts will end each season and they'll have a lot of flexibility on who to keep.

The age issue is the big rationale for taking Laine in Seattle, as far as I'm concerned. The team won't be good for a couple of years, and much of the current winger core will be well into their 30s in a few years. So adding Laine, a 26 year old, gives Seattle a shot at someone who can grow with the team and be part of the next core.

Why would we do this though? Borgen doesn’t fit a need and we can do better in a 1 for 1 deal. We also aren’t in need of stockpiling more picks and prospects.

Borgen does fit a need. He's a solid defender. The Jackets should ship out Boqvist and take Borgen.

He wasn't injured last year. That would be two years ago now.

No it's been every year.

Last year he had a concussion on game 4. Came back and played like shit for six weeks before breaking his collarbone. Then he went into the PAP, probably driven insane by all the injuries.

 

[majormajor]

So which veteran winger with leadership qualities is going to Columbus along with Borgen?

Ron Francis has given 10 team NTCs to everyone, so it's hard to know who is available. I'll speculate on a few players anyways.

Jaden Schwartz is a leader and a crafty player, but he's very overpaid at this point and significantly washed. So I can only see him going for Laine if Laine's value is lower than I expect.

Brandon Tanev is similarly overpaid and washed. He only has one year left on his deal, so the contract isn't as big of a deal. But the Jackets have some good 4th liners already and Tanev can't lead if he isn't surpassing those guys.

Burakovsky isn't a leader, and is 29, always injured, and has three years left on his deal, so that's a no go.

Eberle just extended, and with a full NTC.

Bjorkstrand, the problem there is that he's too good. It's unlikely. If there's a bit of a bidding war for Laine though, or maybe if the Jackets add a prospect/pick to Laine (and let's assume in this case that Borgen isn't included), then I can almost see it. There's a rationale for Seattle to do it because Laine is a full three years younger than Bjorkstrand. But regardless Bjorkstrand is one of the least likely players to be included.

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

I think Laine makes a ton of sense for Seattle, a lack of elite offensive talent has been their issue since they came into the league & he could help fill that void.

As a Vancouver fan Im even intrigued by him as a target, but I think the issue for most teams is he's a real wild card & your taking on a risk acquiring him at that salary. Is he the player that can contribute to a winning team? Where is he at personally?

I think a team like Seattle is in a position where they have little to lose & alot to gain in a deal for Laine. No team is paying top assets but I imagine a deal could be made there if both teams are serious about it.

I think the Jackets should just hold on the Laine and not trade him, just pay him until he is a ufa and go from there.

I don't know he's already requested out, I don't think he's going to be a solution for Columbus. Imo they are better off making a solid deal that doesn't hurt them, hopefully you get something back that can legitimately help you, & get rid of the rot so they can move forward.

Unfortunately he's just not been a good asset for them since he was acquired. Was worth a shot.

 

[BleedBlue14]

Feels similar to the Tarasenko situation. Laine is probably a more elite talent, I’m not sure by how much but he has a lot more warts, and doesn’t have any track record of winning like Tarasenko did.

It’d probably be hard for Columbus to make a deal right now without it feeling like they’re trading an unwanted contract for an unwanted contract.

 

[Irie]

I think Borgen should head to Columbus one-for-one no salary retained. Laine to Seattle.

Borgen's not for sale, and the Kraken need centers, not another winger eating up all of their free cap.

They already have McCann, Bjorkstrand, Schwartz, Eberle, Burakovsky and Tolvanen on their wings eating up over 30M of their cap, and only Beniers and Gourde as natural pivots signed for next season.

If you really want one of the Kraken's D, you can have Dumoulin or Oleksiak though

 

[Dead Coyote]

Last year he had a concussion on game 4. Came back and played like shit for six weeks before breaking his collarbone. Then he went into the PAP, probably driven insane by all the injuries.

Apologies then, I thought that was 2023.

 

[Patty Ice]

He wasn't injured last year.

He didn't miss 6 weeks with a broken clavicle?

 

[VT]

Colombus have to retain to move Laine. He's terrible 5v5. Injury prone, last few seasons it's 45 games, 50 games. For 7.8m for 2 more years?

You probably haven't watched Columbus too much. Laine played great 5v5, including a good game without the puck, defense and the stats shows it too. Conversely, our PP is pretty bad.

 

[Fro]

So which veteran winger with leadership qualities is going to Columbus along with Borgen?

Ron Francis has given 10 team NTCs to everyone, so it's hard to know who is available. I'll speculate on a few players anyways.

Jaden Schwartz is a leader and a crafty player, but he's very overpaid at this point and significantly washed. So I can only see him going for Laine if Laine's value is lower than I expect.

Brandon Tanev is similarly overpaid and washed. He only has one year left on his deal, so the contract isn't as big of a deal. But the Jackets have some good 4th liners already and Tanev can't lead if he isn't surpassing those guys.

Burakovsky isn't a leader, and is 29, always injured, and has three years left on his deal, so that's a no go.

Eberle just extended, and with a full NTC.

Bjorkstrand, the problem there is that he's too good. It's unlikely. If there's a bit of a bidding war for Laine though, or maybe if the Jackets add a prospect/pick to Laine (and let's assume in this case that Borgen isn't included), then I can almost see it. There's a rationale for Seattle to do it because Laine is a full three years younger than Bjorkstrand. But regardless Bjorkstrand is one of the least likely players to be included.

Basically leaves Gourde

 

[VT]

He wasn't injured last year. That would be two years ago now.

Also:

Okay, be prepared to pony up for a player that has had 2/8 seasons at less than 50 points. By the way, Laine is 141st all time on points before 26 and is 25th among points before 26 among active players. He's also 12th in Goals before 26 among active players and 77th all time.

Now I know you don't care about pace, but I thought you might want to know that he's 113th all time in G/GP before 26, and 253rd all time in P/GP before 26. Among active players he is 11th in G/GP and 46th in P/GP before 26.

Players with similar totals such as him at that time in their careers might include Tyler Seguin, Sebastien Aho, Vlad Tarasenko, Alex Debrincat, Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point, etc. All of which have less G/GP than Laine does, and even with Laine's two seasons included where he did not put up a "normal" ppg when he played, the difference between him and the highest PPG player on that list (Aho at .9) is 47 points.

So what did you want to give up for him again?

I think Borgen for Laine is a solid start to a deal, but I think Laine is worth more than that even with his down seasons. I don't see 8th overall being included but I do think there is some need of an asset a bit below that in value or two as a sweetener. I could also see a hockey trade with Borgen + a winger going for Laine + picks or prospects.

Laine stats in 5v5 (despite the injuries and the fact that he had to return to his shape):

Do not forget his centers were Jenner and Roslovic, he played especially with Peeke, Gudbranson and Berni as d-men. If not concussion he had similar or better stats this season too.

Simply if not concussion his stats would be probably better in this season.

More here:

Patrik Laine - Summary - Natural Stat Trick

 

[Chr1s97]

Waddell already said he's not going to treat this as a cap dump and want a hockey trade. Means looking for a 1 for 1 and not prospects (didn't rule out retention). Still when he said "right now we are all playing nice in the sandbox" that's him basically telling Laine's camp if there's no market we are not going pay for people to take you off our hands so see you in the fall. We are not going to give him “Our hope is that we dont have to hold money and we want to make a hockey trade if we can” They have their wishes but it dont mean that it will happen this way.

Thats not entirely true. His exact words in his press conference was “Our hope is that we dont have to hold money and we want to make a hockey trade if we can.”

 

[kihei]

Basically leaves Gourde

....who probably should have been our captain the past three years. He's certainly slowing down but if you're talking leadership by example and tons of heart, he'd be the guy on the Kraken to get.

 

[wraparound]

Borgen's not for sale, and the Kraken need centers, not another winger eating up all of their free cap.

They already have McCann, Bjorkstrand, Schwartz, Eberle, Burakovsky and Tolvanen on their wings eating up over 30M of their cap, and only Beniers and Gourde as natural pivots signed for next season.

At what point do you stop running it back with the same wingers hoping for different results? None of those guys listed have Laine’s shot.

And for what it’s worth, McCann held his own at C last season when he was needed to.

I think he’s worth adding for the right price. What that is I can’t say right now but I do trust GMRF to not overpay.

 

[majormajor]

I think he’s worth adding for the right price. What that is I can’t say right now but I do trust GMRF to not overpay.

Ron's never going to stick his neck out on a trade. He's never done it.

 

[RainyCityHockey]

At what point do you stop running it back with the same wingers hoping for different results? None of those guys listed have Laine’s shot.

And for what it’s worth, McCann held his own at C last season when he was needed to.

I think he’s worth adding for the right price. What that is I can’t say right now but I do trust GMRF to not overpay.

Even though I'm intrigued by the idea of Laine in Seattle, the McCann thing I don't agree with.

This team still needs Gourde and another center for next season, even with Wright coming in.

And if you trade Gourde(I would look at it for the right offer), you would have to bring in another center.

Cause McCann didn't really hold his own at center cause he just isn't one and can only play that position in pinches if there's no other option available.

Anyone watching that team last season, after the Kraken traded Wennberg and put McCann at center, saw that and even Francis admitted that moving McCann back to the wing is a priority for this offseason.

 

[Irie]

At what point do you stop running it back with the same wingers hoping for different results? None of those guys listed have Laine’s shot.

And for what it’s worth, McCann held his own at C last season when he was needed to.

I think he’s worth adding for the right price. What that is I can’t say right now but I do trust GMRF to not overpay.

It is really about opportunity cost. If there were no salary cap, I would absolutely agree, but in reality, should you go out and pick up a 8.7M winger when you already have solid depth at wing and no realistic #1 center? (McCann is a fine 2c if you have a legitimate 1C ahead of him, but with Beniers inconsistency at his young age, an NHL team needs more from it's top centers if it hopes to compete.)

Seattle also has to sign Tolvanen and Beniers and needs a 4th line center, two defensmen, a couple of 4th line/depth forwards to compete with Kartye and a #1 center solution. They have 23M in free cap, but if you add Laine into the mix, they'd have a bit more than 14M. The team they ice after re-signing Beniers and Tolvanen with Laine is not going to be too competitive, imo.

Laine would bring the cap hits of the top 9 wingers close to 40M. If you could figure out a way to move out Schwartz, Eberle, or Burakovsky in the deal (or a seperate deal without paying too much) it might make some sense, but no GM is taking on those contracts for free, and even if someone was interested, they all have NTCs, so not running it back is easier said than done.

I think a wiser use of the cap space would be to keep McCann at wing since he does a lot of what Laine would do anyhow,(McCann has one of the best shots in the league), and try to overspend for a short term center upgrade. The roster would be better balanced and you'd get more bang for your buck.