Value of: Lafreniere?

[BHawk21]

To Chicago- Lafreniere
To New York- Korchinski and Bertuzzi

To New York -Danielson/ Detroit 1st
To Detriot- Miller

 

[nbwingsfan]

I'd like to point out how ironic it is that I've gone from being labeled a Laf hater, to now being one of the few non Rangers fans actually pumping his tires. He's far from elite, but he's still a useful player with upside. He's honestly developing into pretty much the exact type of player I projected when he was drafted (softer, more skilled Landeskog).

The Rangers have had one of the best 5 man units for years, and it's been composed of pretty much the exact same 5 guys since Lafreniere joined the team (save for Trocheck, whose role was played by Ryan Strome previously).

Coming into this season, that 5 man unit had scored 187 of their 216 PP goals (a ridiculous 87%) during the first 4 years of Lafreniere's career, a PP that was 4th in the league in that span. That 5 man unit alone scored more PP goals than half the teams in the league in those 4 years...

It's been arguably the hardest PP unit to crack for a young skilled winger.

I ask you, whose role would you have expected him to steal?

- He's obviously not going to QB from the point, especially not in favor of Adam Fox.

- The half wall roles (which Lafreniere is best suited for) are occupied by Panarin and Zibanejad. Obviously he's not taking over for Breadman, and Zibanejad has had one of the most dangerous left circle one timers in the league, perfect for receiving passes from Panarin and Fox. Even if Lafreniere was a better PP weapon than Zibanejad, he's not a RH shot, which would completely neuter their PP system. So he really couldn't steal Zib's role.

- The net front role has been locked up by Kreider, who has scored more PP goals than any winger in the 2020s, so he really hasn't had a realistic chance there either.

- Which leaves the bumper role, which is probably the only spot he could have potentially stolen, if only he weren't a LH shot winger. Unfortunately for Laf, their PP system relies heavily on a RH shot for the bumper role (like Strome and Trocheck), and they like that role to be able to take draws too. They've tried him there a few times if memory serves, but it's just not a great fit for him or the system.

So really the only players he's "eligible" to replace would be Kreider or Panarin, who have both been arguably the best players on the planet in their respective PP roles in the last 5 years.

Look at the PP ranks of that core unit during Laf's first 4 years:
Panarin - 4th in points, 1st among LWs
Kreider - 3rd in goals, 1st among wingers
Zibanejad - 6th in goals, 14th in points
Fox - 3rd in assists, 3rd in dmen points

And all 4 were in the top 13 for on ice GF/60.

No serious coach would tinker with that formula unless absolutely necessary.

True, the Rangers have struggled to convert on their PPs this season, but that's seemingly more to do with puck luck than anything systemic. Their actual and expected PP goals were nearly identical in the prior 3 seasons. Not so much this year:

Last 3 years
9.48 GF/60 vs 9.41 xGF/60 (+.08)
15.0% sh%

This year
6.53 GF/60 vs 9.00 xGF/60 (-2.47)
11.7% sh%

So yeah, it doesn't make any sense to blame him for not piling up PP points.


So does Trocheck, who has 3 less 5v5 points than Lafreniere, and is widely regarded as a solid top 6 player. And Panarin only has 3 more primary points than Laf at 5v5.

5v5 P1
Panarin 32
Lafreniere 29
Trocheck 26
Cullye 23
Fox 19
Zibanejad 17

Yeah, playing with Panarin is a huge advantage. But not everyone can have success with elite offensive players. Lafreniere does a lot of good things on that line.

And by your own logic from above, doesn't he have to be good enough to earn that spot next to Panarin in the first place?

They put him beside Panarin because his stats plummet away from him.

And as you said, their PP isn’t converting this season, and he’s still not getting the time, because he’s just not that good

 

[surixon]

He's 2nd behind only Panarin on the Rangers in 5v5 scoring. He doesn't get prime PP opportunities. He's a draft disappointment but he's still solidly a top 6 winger who adds a level of physicality.

Exactly. He's hardly the only Ranger who has seen a decline in scoring this year. I'd juat look at seeing if he and the rest of the team rebounds in terms of scoring next year and find a way to get a role for him on pp1.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Who on the Rangers PP would he have replaced over the last 5 years without having to completely rework their PP system?

He played the Kreider role I'm pretty sure when Kreider was out with injury a couple of years back and stunk at it. He's just not a good powerplay player.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

They put him beside Panarin because his stats plummet away from him.

You think they're setting their lines to pad Laf's stats?

He plays there because he's a good 5v5 player.

And as you said, their PP isn’t converting this season, and he’s still not getting the time, because he’s just not that good

Who would he replace on PP1, Panarin or Kreider?

The PP is generating well, they've just had terrible puck luck. Shoehorning Lafreniere into a role he's not equipped to play is not the answer.

He played the Kreider role I'm pretty sure when Kreider was out with injury a couple of years back and stunk at it. He's just not a good powerplay player.

The Kreider role is a terrible fit for his skillset, just like it was for Timo Meier. They are both skilled halfwall players with a with a good release.

We've seen how Meier can be an effective PP player, taking on a lot of Jack's responsibility. But he's not good in the wrong role.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

The Kreider role is a terrible fit for his skillset, just like it was for Timo Meier. They are both skilled halfwall players with a with a good release.

We've seen how Meier can be an effective PP player, taking on a lot of Jack's responsibility. But he's not good in the wrong role.

Lafreniere's shot is mediocre compared to Timo's, he's also miles softer than Timo and would get picked on the half boards on any board battle.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Lafreniere's shot is mediocre compared to Timo's, he's also miles softer than Timo and would get picked on the half boards on any board battle.

Don't disagree on the shot, but Laf has gotten fairly strong on the puck and is a significantly better playmaker and puck handler.

I don't think he's some elite PP weapon, but he's perfectly capable of working the wall on a team's top unit and putting up some points.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

if he was good enough, they would have found a way to incorporate him.

Why would you completely change your extremely successful PP system just to find a spot for your young forward?

I'll ask again, who's job was he supposed to take?

How many different coaches decided he wasn't good enough to be put on the PP?

Like 2, unless you think he rookie Lafreniere was gonna outplay Panarin, Zibanejad, or Kreider.

That 5 man unit has been one of the most successful units in the last 2 decades. There's not a coach in the world who would have dismantled that to experiment with a young player.

 

[TGWL]

Hfboards is hilarious. These days, the fact that you're given a spot on the PP, and succeed... Well, that's bad now.

We can debate whether or not Lafreniere is a good powerplay player, deserves the spot, or hasn't earned the opportunity, but where was he going to fit?

I'm one of his biggest critics but he wasn't given a spot on the powerplay to succed and was never in a position to take a spot. Rangers finished with a very good powerplay. Trocheck was a beast on the faceoff. Kreider was the best net front guy in the league. He was a big part of that PP. Panarin wasn't being moved. Zibanejad was the guy flubbing shots left and right, but they refused to remove him. Lafreniere also having a left shot didn't make that switch easy. Now they got Miller. They don't use 2 units full of talent. Next season is probably where you may see more of Lafreniere on the powerplay

So it's not that people are ripping on other players that got opportunities and made the best of them, it's more there wasn't much of an opportunity for him, whether he earned it or not. Fans are using gimmie points to bump numbers because most likely a player on the top powerplay, over the course of the season, is going to get more than a handful of points to add to their 5 on 5 production.

EDIT: It seems @WhiskeyYerTheDevils already addressed this.

 

[UnSandvich]

Lafrenieres 5v5 stats are slightly down from last year, but it’s his other areas of production that have taken a bigger tumble. Just like a lot of other players. One notable example is the Rangers play at 6v5/with their goalie pulled.

Last season the Rangers led the league in goals scored there. In 54:36, the Rangers had 11 goals scored on just 59 shots, an 18.64% shooting percentage. This season, they’ve scored just 2 goals in 51:23 on 47 shots. That (and the 4.26 sh%) are both 4th worst in the league. Lafreniere has no points on either of their 2 goals this year, but had 5 on 11 goals last year.

 

[eco's bones]

At 5v5, the production is there. That much is true.

It's not enough production to justify that he does absolutely nothing else. His physicality is overrated and he's lazy without the puck in the offensive zone. He couldn't find the defensive zone with a map and written directions.

There are offensive stars who fit that description (Rantanen - search your feelings) but I'm not sure how much more production you're getting out of him.

The Rangers had a stretch this year where injuries gave him a real powerplay look and he couldn't make an impression. They had Brodzinski out there instead after awhile.

He might just suck on the powerplay, and if he does, it's 50-something points and NOTHING else.

I can agree with most of this. He can be very lackadaisical away from the puck. He seemed to have gotten over some of his worst habits last year but they're back in full force this year. To play with Panarin he had to move to the right side and it could be argued that maybe that exacerbated his defensive issues.

He hits and he can hit hard but he's kind of like Kreider in that that part of his game can disappear sometimes for weeks......and then out of nowhere he's doing it again.

His junior career wasn't full of all these inconsistencies but he's never going to go from good player to better or great player unless and until he works these inconsistencies out of his game. He was an Alpha personality player then. He's just one of the guys in the Rangers locker room now which maybe speaks to a No. 1 overall going into a situation where the team actually hasn't hit the skids and where he's not going to be the main focal point. What he is now is a legit top 6 winger. Will he ever be much more of that.....that's a good question.

I think the Rangers are counting on that which is why the long term contract. They moved on from Kakko instead. They fortunately moved on from Chytil too but that wasn't so much work or lackadaisical play but injury issues.

 

[TGWL]

I can agree with most of this. He can be very lackadaisical away from the puck. He seemed to have gotten over some of his worst habits last year but they're back in full force this year. To play with Panarin he had to move to the right side and it could be argued that maybe that exacerbated his defensive issues.

He hits and he can hit hard but he's kind of like Kreider in that that part of his game can disappear sometimes for weeks......and then out of nowhere he's doing it again.

His junior career wasn't full of all these inconsistencies but he's never going to go from good player to better or great player unless and until he works these inconsistencies out of his game. He was an Alpha personality player then. He's just one of the guys in the Rangers locker room now which maybe speaks to a No. 1 overall going into a situation where the team actually hasn't hit the skids and where he's not going to be the main focal point. What he is now is a legit top 6 winger. Will he ever be much more of that.....that's a good question.

I think the Rangers are counting on that which is why the long term contract. They moved on from Kakko instead. They fortunately moved on from Chytil too but that wasn't so much work or lackadaisical play but injury issues.

His junior career had these same inconsistencies. Everybody ignore them because the points were there and came easy for him. If he wasn't 6'1 almost 200lbs at the draft, there would have been a little more questions about his game, and he likely wouldn't have dominated juniors as easy. But he did. He dominated those players. Skated through them. Used his size to protect the puck skating around them. It looked very easy for him.

The inconsistency with moving his feet, being lazy, floating, jumping the D-zone, or making bad plays/turnovers when players attack Lafreniere skating down the wing, those inconsistencies were always there, but you're given a lot more slack when you produce.

 

[eco's bones]

I mean, $7.45m for ~50pts and lazy defense isn’t good…

Except that he's not making $7.45 mil this year. He's making somewhere around $2.3. And again the salary cap is expected to rise a lot in the next three years when the first years of his new contract kick in.

 

[Profet]

Devils fans defending Lafrenière...




He's a disappointing player for his draft status. He's still an NHL player. He's just not a star NHL player.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Except that he's not making $7.45 mil this year. He's making somewhere around $2.3. And again the salary cap is expected to rise a lot in the next three years when the first years of his new contract kick in.

Correct, but no one is acquiring him for this season. So pretty moot point what he’s making right now

 

[Rabid Ranger]

I'd take him in Seattle to reunite with Kakko again. But I don't think we have assets the Rangers would want much.

Laf for Matty.

 

[nbwingsfan]

You think they're setting their lines to pad Laf's stats?

He plays there because he's a good 5v5 player.

Who would he replace on PP1, Panarin or Kreider?

The PP is generating well, they've just had terrible puck luck. Shoehorning Lafreniere into a role he's not equipped to play is not the answer.

The Kreider role is a terrible fit for his skillset, just like it was for Timo Meier. They are both skilled halfwall players with a with a good release.

We've seen how Meier can be an effective PP player, taking on a lot of Jack's responsibility. But he's not good in the wrong role.

“Generating well” means absolutely nothing if the puck isn’t going in the net. And to answer your question, either Kreider or Zibanejad. He’s been given chances on the top PP and done nothing, as already pointed out by other Rangers fans

They’re putting him with Panarin because he can produce at an okay clip beside him, but is essentially worthless when he’s away from Panarin.

 

[eco's bones]

Correct, but no one is acquiring him for this season. So pretty moot point what he’s making right now

You're making out that this $7.5mil is an absurd amount of money and here we have a 23 year old having a shit season with production down for most of the other players on the team and who's still going to put up probably somewhere around 45+ points and put up 57 last year and in the meantime the cap ceiling is about to go up and up and up over the next 3 years.

If you want to argue whether his career has been somewhat underwhelming that's one thing. I agree with that. He's not become a star. He's become a good player who definitely still needs to work on some things. A 23 year old good NHL player is going to make pretty good money on his third NHL contract. That shouldn't surprise anyone.

And if you notice Chychrun signs today. So many of this year's potential free agents have already come off the board. They're not going to be there in July. Teams are looking at the cap ceiling going up and they're spending the money to keep their teams intact. There are going to be teams with cap money to spend come July but not that many really quality to spend that money on. I don't have a real issue with what the Rangers spent on Lafreniere. I also don't consider him untouchable. He can be had. I wouldn't give him away for a perpetually injured Kirby Dach + a 2nd rounder though. Do better than that.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Devils fans defending Lafrenière...




He's a disappointing player for his draft status. He's still an NHL player. He's just not a star NHL player.

Agreed, Laf's all well and good but the draft status kills the dude. Similar shit happened with Kakko, at this rate NYR should just punt their firsts for elite young talent lol

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

“Generating well” means absolutely nothing if the puck isn’t going in the net.

And making that PP worse isn't going to help. Puck luck is a thing. If you are generating the chances and have the skill to convert (they still do), they just need to be patient.

And to answer your question, either Kreider or Zibanejad. He’s been given chances on the top PP and done nothing, as already pointed out by other Rangers fans

ZIbanejad's big right shot is key to their system. Taking him out kills any one timer threat from the left circle. He's 2nd on the team in PP scoring.

Kreider is a world class net front guy, while that is a relative weakness in Laf's game.

You need to watch the games to understand why Laf on PP1 just doesn't make sense. Stat watching is how you confused Bedard as a Crosby/McDavid level prospect, remember?

He's by no means an elite PP weapon, but the team essentially has 2 spots for LH shots on their top unit. One of them is a net front guy (polar opposite of Laf), and the other is Panarin.

There just isn't room for him on that unit.

I do think they could experiment with playing PP2 a bit earlier in power plays in an attempt to mix things up, but their top unit is still generating chances at an elite level.

They’re putting him with Panarin because he can produce at an okay clip beside him, but is essentially worthless when he’s away from Panarin.

Unfortunately, after Panarin, his wing options are pretty awful, so it's not surprising to see his numbers tank without him. He's not a play driver, and not every player needs to be.

He's a top 6 complimentary offensive player. Those guys can still be very valuable. Look at guys like Landeskog, Debrincat, Huberdeau, Marchessault, Toffoli, Boeser, Rantanen, Guentzel etc. These aren't franchise players, but they are still valuable guys who can slot in with highly skilled play drivers and generate offense.

 

[nbwingsfan]

And making that PP worse isn't going to help. Puck luck is a thing. If you are generating the chances and have the skill to convert (they still do), they just need to be patient.


ZIbanejad's big right shot is key to their system. Taking him out kills any one timer threat from the left circle. He's 2nd on the team in PP scoring.

Kreider is a world class net front guy, while that is a relative weakness in Laf's game.

You need to watch the games to understand why Laf on PP1 just doesn't make sense. Stat watching is how you confused Bedard as a Crosby/McDavid level prospect, remember?

He's by no means an elite PP weapon, but the team essentially has 2 spots for LH shots on their top unit. One of them is a net front guy (polar opposite of Laf), and the other is Panarin.

There just isn't room for him on that unit.

I do think they could experiment with playing PP2 a bit earlier in power plays in an attempt to mix things up, but their top unit is still generating chances at an elite level.


Unfortunately, after Panarin, his wing options are pretty awful, so it's not surprising to see his numbers tank without him. He's not a play driver, and not every player needs to be.

He's a top 6 complimentary offensive player. Those guys can still be very valuable. Look at guys like Landeskog, Debrincat, Huberdeau, Marchessault, Toffoli, Boeser, Rantanen, Guentzel etc. These aren't franchise players, but they are still valuable guys who can slot in with highly skilled play drivers and generate offense.

Need to be patient? The season is almost over

You literally have Rangers fans in here saying he’s been tried on the1st PP and didn’t prosuce.

Also comparing Laf to players like Rantanen and Guentzel is comedy you can’t make up

 

[zizbuka]

lol are you serious

You think he's worth anywhere near his $7.45M contract?

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

You think he's worth anywhere near his $7.45M contract?

You think 7.45 is a huge contract these days?

That contract hasn’t started yet either, and I think he’ll be much better than what he’s shown this season

 

[Dead Coyote]

Laf for Matty.

Probably fair value wise, but I'd want to bring him to play with Kakko and Beniers, not lose out on one to get him.

 

[Savant]

Dman