I mean, $7.45m for ~50pts and lazy defense isn’t good…
Value of: Lafreniere?
- Thread starter Scintillating10
- Start date
KirkAlbuquerque
#Laviolette4Gitmo
It’s not negative value though. He’s young and 7.45 is not much these days
Listen I’m pretty much done with him but people need to get caught up with 2025 cap numbers
15 goals and 40 points is middle 6 production, not top 6.
His 5v5 production is absolutely top 6. He's 2nd on the rangers in 5v5 scoring.
PP points have no bearing on how a player slots at 5v5, which is what terms like "top 6" refer to.
IF a team sees him not improving on those numbers then it’s pretty easy to see how a GM may see him as close to negative value.
SI90
Registered User
Please nobody bail them out of this contract. Laf feels like a guy who could score 15 goals OR flirt with 30 goals in any given year.
Hes still young that you would have hope but he’s played enough pro games now where it feels comfortable enough to say what he is and what he is not.
Hes still young that you would have hope but he’s played enough pro games now where it feels comfortable enough to say what he is and what he is not.
His 1.97 5v5 p/60 is 22nd among LWs (>500 mins).
Ahead of guys like Raymond (1.77), Boldy (1.73) Marchand (1.70), Huberdeau (1.67), and B Tkachuk (1.56).
Hard to argue he's got negative value. He's very easily a 60+ point complimentary power LW on a team where he's given a larger PP role.
5 years ago he'd be overpaid but with the cap situation moving forward his value is far from negative.
Hfboards is hilarious. These days, the fact that you're given a spot on the PP, and succeed... Well, that's bad now.
Legend123
Registered User
- Jul 3, 2016
- 9,796
- 4,900
Sheesh you guys are overreacting after one bad season from the entire Rangers team. I'm sure he's better than what he's show this season.
For sure, he'll never be that player they thought they were getting at 1OA but he's a 50 point player at least imo when well surrounded and on a well functioning team.
For sure, he'll never be that player they thought they were getting at 1OA but he's a 50 point player at least imo when well surrounded and on a well functioning team.
Playing exclusively with Panarin all season *
We’ve been hearing how he’s just some PP time away from being a star for a few years now. Yet if he were actually that good, he’d get more PP time.
I'd like to point out how ironic it is that I've gone from being labeled a Laf hater, to now being one of the few non Rangers fans actually pumping his tires. He's far from elite, but he's still a useful player with upside. He's honestly developing into pretty much the exact type of player I projected when he was drafted (softer, more skilled Landeskog).
Coming into this season, that 5 man unit had scored 187 of their 216 PP goals (a ridiculous 87%) during the first 4 years of Lafreniere's career, a PP that was 4th in the league in that span. That 5 man unit alone scored more PP goals than half the teams in the league in those 4 years...
It's been arguably the hardest PP unit to crack for a young skilled winger.
I ask you, whose role would you have expected him to steal?
- He's obviously not going to QB from the point, especially not in favor of Adam Fox.
- The half wall roles (which Lafreniere is best suited for) are occupied by Panarin and Zibanejad. Obviously he's not taking over for Breadman, and Zibanejad has had one of the most dangerous left circle one timers in the league, perfect for receiving passes from Panarin and Fox. Even if Lafreniere was a better PP weapon than Zibanejad, he's not a RH shot, which would completely neuter their PP system. So he really couldn't steal Zib's role.
- The net front role has been locked up by Kreider, who has scored more PP goals than any winger in the 2020s, so he really hasn't had a realistic chance there either.
- Which leaves the bumper role, which is probably the only spot he could have potentially stolen, if only he weren't a LH shot winger. Unfortunately for Laf, their PP system relies heavily on a RH shot for the bumper role (like Strome and Trocheck), and they like that role to be able to take draws too. They've tried him there a few times if memory serves, but it's just not a great fit for him or the system.
So really the only players he's "eligible" to replace would be Kreider or Panarin, who have both been arguably the best players on the planet in their respective PP roles in the last 5 years.
Look at the PP ranks of that core unit during Laf's first 4 years:
Panarin - 4th in points, 1st among LWs
Kreider - 3rd in goals, 1st among wingers
Zibanejad - 6th in goals, 14th in points
Fox - 3rd in assists, 3rd in dmen points
And all 4 were in the top 13 for on ice GF/60.
No serious coach would tinker with that formula unless absolutely necessary.
True, the Rangers have struggled to convert on their PPs this season, but that's seemingly more to do with puck luck than anything systemic. Their actual and expected PP goals were nearly identical in the prior 3 seasons. Not so much this year:
Last 3 years
9.48 GF/60 vs 9.41 xGF/60 (+.08)
15.0% sh%
This year
6.53 GF/60 vs 9.00 xGF/60 (-2.47)
11.7% sh%
So yeah, it doesn't make any sense to blame him for not piling up PP points.
5v5 P1
Panarin 32
Lafreniere 29
Trocheck 26
Cullye 23
Fox 19
Zibanejad 17
Yeah, playing with Panarin is a huge advantage. But not everyone can have success with elite offensive players. Lafreniere does a lot of good things on that line.
And by your own logic from above, doesn't he have to be good enough to earn that spot next to Panarin in the first place?
The Rangers have had one of the best 5 man units for years, and it's been composed of pretty much the exact same 5 guys since Lafreniere joined the team (save for Trocheck, whose role was played by Ryan Strome previously).
Coming into this season, that 5 man unit had scored 187 of their 216 PP goals (a ridiculous 87%) during the first 4 years of Lafreniere's career, a PP that was 4th in the league in that span. That 5 man unit alone scored more PP goals than half the teams in the league in those 4 years...
It's been arguably the hardest PP unit to crack for a young skilled winger.
I ask you, whose role would you have expected him to steal?
- He's obviously not going to QB from the point, especially not in favor of Adam Fox.
- The half wall roles (which Lafreniere is best suited for) are occupied by Panarin and Zibanejad. Obviously he's not taking over for Breadman, and Zibanejad has had one of the most dangerous left circle one timers in the league, perfect for receiving passes from Panarin and Fox. Even if Lafreniere was a better PP weapon than Zibanejad, he's not a RH shot, which would completely neuter their PP system. So he really couldn't steal Zib's role.
- The net front role has been locked up by Kreider, who has scored more PP goals than any winger in the 2020s, so he really hasn't had a realistic chance there either.
- Which leaves the bumper role, which is probably the only spot he could have potentially stolen, if only he weren't a LH shot winger. Unfortunately for Laf, their PP system relies heavily on a RH shot for the bumper role (like Strome and Trocheck), and they like that role to be able to take draws too. They've tried him there a few times if memory serves, but it's just not a great fit for him or the system.
So really the only players he's "eligible" to replace would be Kreider or Panarin, who have both been arguably the best players on the planet in their respective PP roles in the last 5 years.
Look at the PP ranks of that core unit during Laf's first 4 years:
Panarin - 4th in points, 1st among LWs
Kreider - 3rd in goals, 1st among wingers
Zibanejad - 6th in goals, 14th in points
Fox - 3rd in assists, 3rd in dmen points
And all 4 were in the top 13 for on ice GF/60.
No serious coach would tinker with that formula unless absolutely necessary.
True, the Rangers have struggled to convert on their PPs this season, but that's seemingly more to do with puck luck than anything systemic. Their actual and expected PP goals were nearly identical in the prior 3 seasons. Not so much this year:
Last 3 years
9.48 GF/60 vs 9.41 xGF/60 (+.08)
15.0% sh%
This year
6.53 GF/60 vs 9.00 xGF/60 (-2.47)
11.7% sh%
So yeah, it doesn't make any sense to blame him for not piling up PP points.
So does Trocheck, who has 3 less 5v5 points than Lafreniere, and is widely regarded as a solid top 6 player. And Panarin only has 3 more primary points than Laf at 5v5.
5v5 P1
Panarin 32
Lafreniere 29
Trocheck 26
Cullye 23
Fox 19
Zibanejad 17
Yeah, playing with Panarin is a huge advantage. But not everyone can have success with elite offensive players. Lafreniere does a lot of good things on that line.
And by your own logic from above, doesn't he have to be good enough to earn that spot next to Panarin in the first place?
Last edited:
Zajacs Bowl Cut
Lets Go Baby
he will be nearing 400 games played by the end of this season
is there a chance he turns it on and becomes a more consistent player? Sure I guess.
Is it much more likely this is kind of what he is at this point? Yes, probably given the history of players like this.
Wierzbowski426
Registered User
He's just.... there.
If you stick him next to a player of Panarin's quality he's good enough to soak up some points, that's about it.
Anyone trading for him expecting him to be any sort of driver on his own is making a big mistake.
If you stick him next to a player of Panarin's quality he's good enough to soak up some points, that's about it.
Anyone trading for him expecting him to be any sort of driver on his own is making a big mistake.
Wierzbowski426
Registered User
He has NEVER produced for any sort of sustained stretch without being attached to Panarin.
At least Trochek is useful defensively lol.
eco's bones
Registered User
If the cap is going up substantially we're all going to have to reevaluate what the new values are. $7.5 is a pretty big contract for 24-25 but he doesn't start getting that until 25-26 and if over the next three years the cap goes up $25 mil as has been projected it's not really that big of a chunk of the overall pie.
I think more changes are coming and he can be had but I don't think he's going to be that cheap. A team trading for him is going to have to give up something that really hurts. A guy who's floundered even worse and is always injured + a 2nd isn't going to do it.
I think more changes are coming and he can be had but I don't think he's going to be that cheap. A team trading for him is going to have to give up something that really hurts. A guy who's floundered even worse and is always injured + a 2nd isn't going to do it.
eco's bones
Registered User
Zajacs Bowl Cut
Lets Go Baby
I hate this argument tbh
he doesn't get PP time because he isn't good enough for the PP. How many different coaches have made that decision now?
eco's bones
Registered User
Here I'll help you out.
Even strength scoring Rangers 2023-24:
Panarin 38-37-75
Trocheck 13-39-52
Lafreniere 26-25-51
Kreider 19-22-41
Fox 10-28-38
Zibanejad 12-23-35
The Rangers power play has been configured for the last several years around 4 right shots and one left shot (Kreider) who is their net front presence. Before Trocheck there was Strome.....another right shot. The right shot idea is all about one time passing quick puck movement. The Rangers power play this year is shit but this unit had quite a bit of success for several years running. Lafreniere is a left shot. He's not nearly the presence in front of the net that Kreider is and he's a wrong handed or on his backhand too much in any of the other power play positions as this power play was constructed. And why change things when they were working so well? Well.....until this year anyway.
Who on the Rangers PP would he have replaced over the last 5 years without having to completely rework their PP system?
Machinehead
Bring Back Olli
At 5v5, the production is there. That much is true.
It's not enough production to justify that he does absolutely nothing else. His physicality is overrated and he's lazy without the puck in the offensive zone. He couldn't find the defensive zone with a map and written directions.
There are offensive stars who fit that description (Rantanen - search your feelings) but I'm not sure how much more production you're getting out of him.
The Rangers had a stretch this year where injuries gave him a real powerplay look and he couldn't make an impression. They had Brodzinski out there instead after awhile.
He might just suck on the powerplay, and if he does, it's 50-something points and NOTHING else.
It's not enough production to justify that he does absolutely nothing else. His physicality is overrated and he's lazy without the puck in the offensive zone. He couldn't find the defensive zone with a map and written directions.
There are offensive stars who fit that description (Rantanen - search your feelings) but I'm not sure how much more production you're getting out of him.
The Rangers had a stretch this year where injuries gave him a real powerplay look and he couldn't make an impression. They had Brodzinski out there instead after awhile.
He might just suck on the powerplay, and if he does, it's 50-something points and NOTHING else.
novisor
Registered User
A lot of over reactions in this thread. The whole team stinks this year. He'll probably finish with around 45-47 points, 10-12 short of last year in the same amount of games played. I think you'll see this guy consistently be a 50-65 point guy going forward. With his deal under a rising cap, and his 5v5 play - I don't see why you'd trade that, huge mistake in my mind after seeing what he did last year.
That said, a team that is building like Chicago could use a solid player like this. If I was Davidson I'd offer a first, certainly not in 2025 - but maybe a 2027 first rounder, or a 2026 first but it would have to be top 10 protected.
That said, a team that is building like Chicago could use a solid player like this. If I was Davidson I'd offer a first, certainly not in 2025 - but maybe a 2027 first rounder, or a 2026 first but it would have to be top 10 protected.
Zajacs Bowl Cut
Lets Go Baby
if he was good enough, they would have found a way to incorporate him.
How many different coaches decided he wasn't good enough to be put on the PP?
