Lack of Killer Instinct

[Stephen]

We've talked about the Leafs lack of playoff success from pretty much every angle since the beginning of June, everything ranging from roster construction to cap allocation to the share of the blame individual players, coaches and managers deserve.

But I thought I'd take a slightly deeper look at the concept of a "lack of killer instinct" which was a central message in the season ending press conference by Brendan Shanahan, especially after the veteran additions after the Columbus series. Basically the question is, do we lack killer instinct, but also just lack winning experience in general? And how little experience do we have? What has that looked like over a 5 year span during the run of futility?

The methodology is pretty simple. I just went through the various Leafs rosters over the past five years and counted how many times each player participated on a team that won a playoff round, experiencing the feeling of a close out being on the winning side of a handshake line as they entered that series that year.

Originally I was going to compare the Total Playoff Series Victories to our opponents in each round but that's time consuming work which I may revisit.

But as a general frame of reference, if you iced a team full of rookies in Year 1 consisting of 13 Forwards, 7 Defensemen and 2 Goalies and they won 1 round in the playoffs that year, and you brought back the exact same roster for Year 2, your team would have a collective 22 Playoff Series Victories. If won 1 round in Year 2 you brought back the same group for Year 3, your team would have 44 Playoff Series Victories. So on and so forth.

So here are the results, and it's pretty bad. Basically if the Leafs appear to be extremely uncomfortable in closeout games, it's because most of the time, the players on the team have never experienced it at the NHL level. Often times the totals are skewed due to the presence of Marleau or Thornton, and generally, the 2019-20 team that played Columbus had the least winning experience.

2020-21 (42x Total Playoff Series Victories)

Matthews - 0
Marner - 0
Tavares - 1
Nylander - 0
Hyman - 0
Foligno - 2
Kerfoot - 1
Mikheyev - 0
Spezza - 6
Galchenyuk - 1
Thornton - 15
Nash - 2
Simmonds - 1
Engvall - 0
Brooks - 0

Rielly - 0
Brodie - 2
Muzzin - 6
Holl - 0
Dermott - 0
Bogosian - 4
Sandin - 0

Campbell - 0
Andersen - 1

2019-20 (24x Total Playoff Series Victories)

Matthews - 0
Marner - 0
Tavares - 1
Nylander - 0
Hyman - 0
Kapanen - 0
Kerfoot - 1
Mikheyev - 0
Spezza - 6
Johnsson - 0
Robertson - 0
Gauthier - 0
Clifford - 6
Engvall - 0

Rielly - 0
Barrie - 1
Muzzin - 6
Holl - 0
Dermott - 0
Ceci - 2
Marincin - 0

Andersen - 1
Campbell - 0

2018-19 (27x Total Playoff Series Victories)

Matthews - 0
Marner - 0
Tavares - 1
Nylander - 0
Kadri - 0
Hyman - 0
Kapanen - 0
Marleau - 15
Ennis - 0
Brown - 0
Moore - 0
Johnsson - 0

Gauthier - 0
Rielly - 0
Gardiner - 0
Muzzin - 6
Hainsey - 4
Dermott - 0
Zaitsev - 0

Andersen - 1
Hutchinson - 0

2017-18 (35x Total Playoff Series Victories)

Matthews - 0
Marner - 0
Nylander - 0
Kadri - 0
van Riemsdyk - 4
Bozak - 0
Hyman - 0
Kapanen - 0
Komarov - 0
Marleau - 15
Plekanec - 6
Brown - 0
D. Moore - 9
Johnsson - 0
Martin - 1

Rielly - 0
Gardiner - 0
Hainsey - 4
Polak - 4
Dermott - 0
Zaitsev - 0
Carrick - 0

Andersen - 1
McElhinney - 0

2016-17 (25x Total Playoff Series Victories)

Matthews - 0
Marner - 0
Nylander - 0
Kadri - 0
van Riemsdyk - 4
Bozak - 0
Hyman - 0
Komarov - 0
Kapanen - 0
Boyle - 10
Brown - 0
Martin - 1

Rielly - 0
Gardiner - 0
Hainsey - 4
Polak - 4
Hunwick - 1
Zaitsev - 0
Carrick - 0
Marincin - 0

Andersen - 1
McElhinney - 0

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[Racer88]

What I see is a lot of zero’s

 

[Racer88]

My take on killer instinct is that you either have it by this point or you never will.
These guys have been playing hockey at high levels since they were 6 years old.
If they haven’t learned to start on time and have a killer instinct they probably won’t ever get it

 

[Jozay]

Shoulda signed Mr Game 7 inatead of perennial loser Marleau

 

[Aus34Matt]

Matthews - 0
Marner - 0
Nylander - 0

VS

Caufield - 3
Kotkaniemi - 3
Suzuki - 3

 

[Mickey Marner]

I think the salient point is the zeros across the board for 11, 16, 34, 44 & 88, as well #14 upstairs. They are the constants, the rest are the variables.

 

[ShaneFalco]

It's not even a lack of killer instinct, it's just that they will only compete in spurts or go full no intensity mode. Two coaches now can't get them to put in a full effort

 

[Brown Dog]

My personal belief is that the concept of learning how to win by going through the growing pains of losing is overblown. I also don't put a lot of stock into the value of "winning experience."

My sense is that this drought has become a monkey on this group's collective back and that once that monkey is lifted, the sky is the limit to what they can accomplish. What makes this year's outcome particularly difficult is the very real possibility that we could have--perhaps would have--gone all the way to the finals.

From this point of view, I can better appreciate or at least understand management's inclination to run it back with largely the same group.

You're not a winner until you win.

 

[ShaneFalco]

My personal belief is that the concept of learning how to win by going through the growing pains of losing is overblown. I also don't put a lot of stock into the value of "winning experience."

My sense is that this drought has become a monkey on this group's collective back and that once that monkey is lifted, the sky is the limit to what they can accomplish. What makes this year's outcome particularly difficult is the very real possibility that we could have--perhaps would have--gone all the way to the finals.

From this point of view, I can better appreciate or at least understand management's inclination to run it back with largely the same group.

You're not a winner until you win.

Or you're a perennial loser wasting away seasons waiting for what isn't there

 

[cupcrazyman]

Watching this Cup Final & realizing that there's no way the Leafs could play with this much intensity.

 

[Pinto]

I think the whole “winning experience” concept is completely overblown. Winning creates a certain environment and attitude no doubt, but having a killer instinct is a big part of achieving that in the first place.

What worries me is the complete lack of intensity and sometimes effort at all in the big games from this group.

 

[ShaneFalco]

I think the whole “winning experience” concept is completely overblown. Winning creates a certain environment and attitude no doubt, but having a killer instinct is a big part of achieving that in the first place.

What worries me is the complete lack of intensity and sometimes effort at all in the big games from this group.

This exactly. If they at least went out swinging it would be one thing, but complete no-shows in big games. Time for change. This team has learned how to lose well.

 

[cupcrazyman]

I think the whole “winning experience” concept is completely overblown. Winning creates a certain environment and attitude no doubt, but having a killer instinct is a big part of achieving that in the first place.

What worries me is the complete lack of intensity and sometimes effort at all in the big games from this group.

Pat Burns teams had that intensity & our team has little to none of that.

 

[Stonehands1990]

Shoulda signed Mr Game 7 inatead of perennial loser Marleau

Or Thornton

 

[Dreakmur]

Pat Burns teams had that intensity & our team has little to none of that.

Pat Burns’ players had intensity.

 

[IPS]

Leafs are a team that gets worse as the series goes on. It's baffling, game 7 rolls around and this team continually finds a way to play their worst game of the series.

 

[Maple Leaf]

They need to bring back Gary Roberts

 

[egd27]

Matthews - 0
Marner - 0
Nylander - 0

VS

Caufield - 3
Kotkaniemi - 3
Suzuki - 3

Ouch, that was cold.

 

[Brown Dog]

It really is a baffling conundrum. How do you develop or acquire something as intangible as "killer instinct?"

 

[Trapper]

It really is a baffling conundrum. How do you develop or acquire something as intangible as "killer instinct?"

You fire the GM.
You stop trying to build the backstreet boys and establish the identity the Maple Leafs should always be.
Blue and White.
Blue collar skill in the days of Gilmour and Clark. Add an anchor on D and solid goalie and build around that level of compete.

And you keep drafting and trading until you establish that. It’s not easy but it starts with mindset and identity.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Never getting a lead in games 5 through 7 is such a f***ing indictment on this team and core. How are you not even gonna make Montreal sweat a bit when you’ve got their backs against the wall on the brink of elimination?

 

[hamzarocks]

Ouch, that was cold.

It's actually 4 series wins for Kotkoneimi and Suzuki b/c as dekes has repeatedly said the NHL play-ins count as playoff qualification. Winning a play-in series was counted as winning a playoff series

We have experience doing neither.

Consistency is key

 

[Antropovsky]

Two years in a row getting beat by underdogs.. and we have the same GM, Coach and Core.

Shanahan is one to talk about lacking a killer instinct.

 

[Superstar]

You fire the GM.
You stop trying to build the backstreet boys and establish the identity the Maple Leafs should always be.
Blue and White.
Blue collar skill in the days of Gilmour and Clark. Add an anchor on D and solid goalie and build around that level of compete.

And you keep drafting and trading until you establish that. It’s not easy but it starts with mindset and identity.

You mean it doesn't come from coddling your RFAs and handing out insane amounts of money with a smile like candies during Halloween?

 

[Stonehands1990]

You fire the GM.
You stop trying to build the backstreet boys and establish the identity the Maple Leafs should always be.
Blue and White.
Blue collar skill in the days of Gilmour and Clark. Add an anchor on D and solid goalie and build around that level of compete.

And you keep drafting and trading until you establish that. It’s not easy but it starts with mindset and identity.

Boston trades anyone who doesn’t fit their mindset or identity. Even high end players. Leafs need to wake up