RaymondReddington
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- Sep 21, 2020
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Earlier this summer Robin Lehner listed Peterson as one of the five best goalies in the NHL.
Earlier this summer Robin Lehner listed Peterson as one of the five best goalies in the NHL.
People need to also keep in mind those are 3 UFA years purchased and that this year he’s still sub 1m.
His contract fits his comps nearly perfectly, it was an easy bang bang deal. Imagine HAVING to sign a UFA next year and how much more a good year from Peterson would have Blake over a barrel, we’d have to pursue a cheap-ish vet with such few options in the system. And there’s something to be said for goaltending stability during/coming out of a rebuild.
You pay for certainty. If Peterson goes out and has a great year and it costs us $7 mill instead of $5 mill, I'm fine with it. At least then we'd know we'd have a likely up and coming starter for years to come. Here, we save a few mill but inherit a huge risk given he has 54 games to his name at the age of 26. People in this thread talking about all the cap space we have going forward, why not use it to either pay a guy who's proven himself or to trade for someone who has if Peterson falls on his face? Two goalies that play like a 1A/backup getting a cap hit of $10.8 mill combined is a terrible thing to have if you want to ice a legitimate playoff caliber team, and there is just as much chance of that happening as there is Peterson goes out and plays like a true number one IMO.
Petersen's career save percentage is higher than Quick's, his numbers over the past three seasons are significantly better, and he was the better goalie last season. Petersen is our #1 starter. I expect everyone on the team to be better next season, Petersen included.
A couple from the division he sees most and his own teammate, as I recall.Earlier this summer Robin Lehner listed Peterson as one of the five best goalies in the NHL.
What if he goes out and has a great year--and someone poaches him? Then we're left with nothing at all.
You don't pay for certainty anymore, though. Just looking at the comps mentioned in this thread:
Shesterkin - $5.6M, 25 years old: .921, 2.55, 47gp
Sorokin - $4M, 26 years old: .918, 2.17, 22gp
Demko - $5M, 25 years old: .911, 2.93, 72gp
Saros - $5M, 26 years old: .920, 2.50, 155gp
Ullmark - $5M, 28 years old: .912, 2.78, 117gp
Petersen - $5M, 26 years old: .916, 2.79, 54gp
How are any of those more 'certain' than Cal by any reasonable measure? The market has been set for mid-20 goalies with good pedigree and potential.
It's nice to have some stability for a few years between Quick and Cal and I don't think Cal is at risk of falling on his face any more than any other goalie that's not a sure franchise guy. To me, this is better than just hiring whatever 1B goalie merc is available year after year until you find a surefire solution (which they're still clearly pursuing, ie the Wallsteadt news), which Cal might even be. Three years allows for a guy growing with the team, a stylistic mesh, and expectation.
What if he goes out and has a great year--and someone poaches him? Then we're left with nothing at all.
You don't pay for certainty anymore, though. Just looking at the comps mentioned in this thread:
Shesterkin - $5.6M, 25 years old: .921, 2.55, 47gp
Sorokin - $4M, 26 years old: .918, 2.17, 22gp
Demko - $5M, 25 years old: .911, 2.93, 72gp
Saros - $5M, 26 years old: .920, 2.50, 155gp
Ullmark - $5M, 28 years old: .912, 2.78, 117gp
Petersen - $5M, 26 years old: .916, 2.79, 54gp
How are any of those more 'certain' than Cal by any reasonable measure? The market has been set for mid-20 goalies with good pedigree and potential.
It's nice to have some stability for a few years between Quick and Cal and I don't think Cal is at risk of falling on his face any more than any other goalie that's not a sure franchise guy. To me, this is better than just hiring whatever 1B goalie merc is available year after year until you find a surefire solution (which they're still clearly pursuing, ie the Wallsteadt news), which Cal might even be. Three years allows for a guy growing with the team, a stylistic mesh, and expectation.
Yeah I"m not really sure where all this "Petersen sucked with the Kings" stuff is coming from when he was in the Vezina conversation and leading or near-leading many goalie stats and advanced stats before everything burst at the end of the season.
I think it's fair to question if he's a guy who can play a full workload, and I'm the first to mock '40 game vezina winners', but it's not accurate to act like he had a bad year, and @Sol acting like Cal has no pedigree is particularly baffling. He's not some hobo journeyman goalie we signed off the street.
Anyone else think how relieved Petersen is to not be a sabre?
Anyone else think how relieved Petersen is to not be a sabre?
Demko was for five years.
Sorokin is $1 mill cheaper
Shesterkin is 4 years
Saros has 100 more games so yeah, he is more proven. Also for four years.
Ullmark has more than double the number of games and put up all his numbers in Buffalo. And was also for four years.
Every deal except Sorokin's was for a longer term. Only Shesterkin's cost more. Only the Shesterkin deal I'd say is arguably worse than Peterson's given the higher salary and modified NTC he gets over the final two years but then again, would you turn down a trade of Shesterkin for Peterson?
That doesn't mean much in a shortened season. I think you among other people in this forum have a very terrible time accepting any disagreement, and the fact there's disagreements in this thread about his worth should tell you that there is merit to the contention.
And I stated consistently that his time as a King has been unimpressive entirely. You are reading what you want to read because I never said his career outside of the Kings has been unimpressive.
And the vast majority of those are also RFA years, and as you point out, taking more term to get the money down. Shorter term and UFA term = higher money should mean the .5 - 1m difference between them all is pretty negligible, no?
Only one of those guys I'd take over Petersen straight up is Shesterkin, the rest have just as many question marks.
IMO this is a lot of consternation over potentially spilled milk if Cal regresses. I think it's fair to consider risk analysis as a bit of a gamble but I guess I'm not seeing a guy with Cal's background falling to pieces.
Imagine that, discussing things on a discussion board. Sounds like you're taking this a little personally and reading what you want to read. I acknowledged merit to the contention in my very post, I even acknowledged a shortened term isn't as powerful as a full season. I just don't think it's that he's played bad as a King, and the numbers don't back up 'bad' play. That's not about disagreement of opinion, that's disagreement on fact. Maybe re-read my post.
NO Kings goalie has 'impressed' you frankly, you've spent Quick's entire contract shittalking him and it's only moved to Petersen since he started becoming the #1. What are you looking for from the guy? I think he faded down the stretch like much of the team, but he was a monster for most of the year. High standards are great, but you motherf*** every goalie that passes thru here.
The point is it's not purely on hope, the guy has the same pedigree as the comps and has demonstrated some competency in the NHL and extreme competency at every other level.
Edit: in the interest of transparency, I feel like Cal should be a top 10-15 goalie during this deal. He's shown the physical tools and the mental makeup at every level. Whether that's 'enough' for this team to get over the hump, I'm not certain. So I realize I'm higher on him than most, and I can 'accept that disagreement.' I just think the idea that he had a bad year is utterly misguided, so yeah, I won't just accept that as a prevailing narrative when all evidence points to the contrary.
He still has to prove he's not a Brian Elliott 40-game wonder, at the very least. But so do his comparables.
Uhhh where to begin in this mess of a post, no offense.
1. Decent amount of people think I have an axe to grind against Quick, that's pretty much a fact on this board. If you see me saying Quick played better than Petersen I feel like I'm not just saying that because for some reason I suddenly love Quick and hate Petersen. I'm saying that because while Petersen did good in the beginning he STILL looked worse than Quick does at his age. That's not a drive by comment.
Evidence to the contrary? You mean the times where he wasn't an NHL goalie? How quickly did you forget about the prophecy of Jonathan Bernier?
And which goalie should have impressed me? Last goalie besides Quick that impressed me was Martin Jones when he was posting ridiculous stats.
I'm happy that you're optimistic about everything on the team it seems, my issue with the whole Petersen circle jerk is based on his pedigree and his limited flashes of brilliance in his time with the Kings.
This can end up being a really good bridge contract, or a shitty one. You CAN argue either way with the limited information. I just happen to be on the other side.
And the vast majority of those are also RFA years, and as you point out, taking more term to get the money down. Shorter term and UFA term = higher money should mean the .5 - 1m difference between them all is pretty negligible, no?
Only one of those guys I'd take over Petersen straight up is Shesterkin, the rest have just as many question marks.
IMO this is a lot of consternation over potentially spilled milk if Cal regresses. I think it's fair to consider risk analysis as a bit of a gamble but I guess I'm not seeing a guy with Cal's background falling to pieces.