Sadly, I think the kid will burn really bright then extinguish like Mike… hopefully we’re contenders by then with something to show
Speculation: LA Kings News, Rumors, Roster Thread 2022-23 Season
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Schrute farms
LA Kings: new GM wanted -- inquire within
- Jul 7, 2020
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4-5 years away is a bad take. But i do think this year is not reasonable -- at least how the team is currently setup. The two issues preventing such is LHD and Goalie. I think we're close though.
The LHD problem can easily be a greatly decreased to a near no issue with proper usage and/or decent trade for a real LHD with size/physicality (a 3rd pairing type LHD). It could be totally fixed with a big trade for a top 4 physical LHD, but not sure that's possible at the TDL.
Even so, we'd be left with the Goalie problem. Cop is doing well and has been a huge lift. I'm not sure we have enough, especially defensive and coaching wise, to allow Copley to take us all the way (even if he continues his solid play). We'd need a higher level of play from goalie to win the SC this year. The team simply not good enough for 16 wins. Maybe next year, or the year after, they will be good enough to win with a Copley level guy.
The LHD problem can easily be a greatly decreased to a near no issue with proper usage and/or decent trade for a real LHD with size/physicality (a 3rd pairing type LHD). It could be totally fixed with a big trade for a top 4 physical LHD, but not sure that's possible at the TDL.
Even so, we'd be left with the Goalie problem. Cop is doing well and has been a huge lift. I'm not sure we have enough, especially defensive and coaching wise, to allow Copley to take us all the way (even if he continues his solid play). We'd need a higher level of play from goalie to win the SC this year. The team simply not good enough for 16 wins. Maybe next year, or the year after, they will be good enough to win with a Copley level guy.
Surf Nutz
Hockey Remote Viewer With A Frozen Finger
I cant see, them not bringing Mikey back unless he is involved in the unlikely event as a piece of a big trade.
He is an RFA, Blake handled them well this off season negotiate fairly but conservative. Tell agent kid needs to play and develop but we will do without him because we have a deep pipeline and he can sit until you agree to terms.
Sad for sure but thats why given the choice you keep Pins and trade Turc. Your estimate is no guarantee and he got bell rings early and often. What do you think an NHL team will have on the scouting report for him come playoff time?
lumbergh
It was an idea. I didn't say it was a good idea.
Well we're halfway through! 41 games in, it's pretty easy to project what a full season would look like at this pace. The Kings are on a 100-point pace right now, which will certainly get them to the playoffs. I thought I'd take a look at some of the numbers to see where some of the players stand. The numbers I pay attention to are Goals For % (GF%) and PDO (Team shooting % + save % while a player is on the ice). These numbers can tell you which players are contributing to winning ways outside of the points.
Even Strength Goals For % (at least 100 minutes)
Studs:
Alex Iafallo, 14 GF 7 GA, 67%
Mikey Anderson, 34 GF 23 GA, 60%
Gabe Vilardi, 24 GF 18 GA, 57%
Duds:
Carl Grundstrom, 16 GF 23 GA 41%
Brandon Lemieux, 6 GF 8 GA, 43%
Sean Durzi, 25 GF 31 GA, 45%
Even strength PDO (at least 100 minutes):
Studs:
Alex Iafallo, 1.039
Quinton Byfield, 1.033
Mikey Anderson 1.017
Duds:
Brendan Lemieux, 0.936
Brandt Clarke, 0.953
Carl Grundstrom, 0.964
The two standouts are Alex Iafallo and Mikey Anderson so far this season. The Kings are 11-7 in the games he has played and 11-12 in the games he missed. As hard as Mikey Anderson's hands are, he is bringing it all over the ice and definitely not dragging Doughty down.
On the flip side, Carl Grundstrom and Brendan Lemieux have been surprise duds. Grundstrom really looked like he might take the next step from the end of the last season, but it turns out that step is backward. Lemieux has taken some dumb penalties to take himself off the ice, but when he's on the ice he seems to get scored on a lot. Here's a guy who has great Corsi, Fenwick, xGF numbers, but ends up way underwater in actual results.
Our three big boys, Quinton Byfield, Gabe Vilardi, and Arthur Kaliyev, are generally doing well and growing into solid players, according to the same numbers. Vilardi and Kaliyev on the edge of breaking out. I'd love to see the three of them together on a line one day. Maybe it'll be two years from now, but they're gonna be awesome.
Even Strength Goals For % (at least 100 minutes)
Studs:
Alex Iafallo, 14 GF 7 GA, 67%
Mikey Anderson, 34 GF 23 GA, 60%
Gabe Vilardi, 24 GF 18 GA, 57%
Duds:
Carl Grundstrom, 16 GF 23 GA 41%
Brandon Lemieux, 6 GF 8 GA, 43%
Sean Durzi, 25 GF 31 GA, 45%
Even strength PDO (at least 100 minutes):
Studs:
Alex Iafallo, 1.039
Quinton Byfield, 1.033
Mikey Anderson 1.017
Duds:
Brendan Lemieux, 0.936
Brandt Clarke, 0.953
Carl Grundstrom, 0.964
The two standouts are Alex Iafallo and Mikey Anderson so far this season. The Kings are 11-7 in the games he has played and 11-12 in the games he missed. As hard as Mikey Anderson's hands are, he is bringing it all over the ice and definitely not dragging Doughty down.
On the flip side, Carl Grundstrom and Brendan Lemieux have been surprise duds. Grundstrom really looked like he might take the next step from the end of the last season, but it turns out that step is backward. Lemieux has taken some dumb penalties to take himself off the ice, but when he's on the ice he seems to get scored on a lot. Here's a guy who has great Corsi, Fenwick, xGF numbers, but ends up way underwater in actual results.
Our three big boys, Quinton Byfield, Gabe Vilardi, and Arthur Kaliyev, are generally doing well and growing into solid players, according to the same numbers. Vilardi and Kaliyev on the edge of breaking out. I'd love to see the three of them together on a line one day. Maybe it'll be two years from now, but they're gonna be awesome.
Considering his injury history never included concussions until he got up the AHL. One has to assume he’ll level up and get back to being the player we thought he’d be when we drafted him.
Assuming that happens, teams would have to content with some center tandem consisting of Byfield, Turcotte, Danault, maybe Kopitar and Kupari.
My assumption of Turcotte is based more on his playing style rather than his concussions.
I've been bummed with Grundy's play lately. For a while there he looked like he really was going to take off and be a play driver on that 4th line. He really looks like he's lacking confidence lately, overthinking everything. Hopefully it's just a slump, but there are so many options he's playing his way out of a lineup spot.
kilowatt
the vibes are not immaculate
- Jan 1, 2009
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Walker? Sean Walker?
Technically, if Sean Walker was worth his weight in gold, his contract would be about $5.75 million. Thankfully that's not the case, the guy just isn't very good.
Peter James Bond II
"Man, we were right there" - De-Luc-sional
- Mar 5, 2015
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This!
When Melrose became coach, he was the first in the organization to had ever said "we're here to win the Stanley Cup". And came damn near close.
Who would ever imagine Vegas going to the finals their inaugural season...or the Blues winning the cup, based on their first half and odds? And every year, the Leafs 'are close' (LOL) and cannot get out of the first round!
The Kings probably do not win in 2012, without adding Carter and in 2014, in adding Gaborik,
It seems the Kings are not one player away, but you still add at the deadline, if you're 2nd in your division and
on the uptrend. Who would ever thought Copley would be #1, halfway through the season and win 8 in a row?
Fiala seems to finish well and Kempe is now scoring. Byfield may well begin to put it together and be a factor.
It's just the team defense and special teams that may be the culprit, in holding the Kings back from going far.
Seattle King
Registered User
- Aug 19, 2022
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The goalie problem looms less large when you see that VGK, EDM, COL are all running with who the funk is he type Gs and our WTF guy is just as good as theirs. We dont currently have another NHL-caliber goalie besides Copley on the roster. Quick is done. Cal isnt the player Blake bet that he was. We need to find a deal at the TDL if possible when the prices for backup Gs will be low.
You know, I've talked about it an awful lot, but PDO is such an odd stat for evaluation. The discussion of luck vs skill is fairly wide ranging with the stat and I suppose it might break down to individual cases. Our old fan favorite Brodzinski is 4th in league in PDO, but how much of that is because he has a 45.09 xGF%? Similarly Byfield has a high a high PDO, but how much of that is because he has a team low 49.74 xGF%? Alternatively, Clarke is very low in PDO, but he is leading the team in xGF% at 62.07%.
The stat is basically comparing xGF% to GF%, so in some cases it can be useful. Durzi has a low PDO, but that's to be expected due to his weak defense. Clarke having a low PDO, could be attributed to him driving possession so much.
It's just hard for me to assign a stud or a dud using PDO.
BringTheReign
Registered User
I wonder if the Kings might circle back to Philly’s defenseman. I know Sanheim just reupped, but you have to wonder if he and his agent want to be there through a rebuild. Provorov is trickier—there’d have to be salary retention at this point unless they’re taking back Walker or Petersen.
Surf Nutz
Hockey Remote Viewer With A Frozen Finger
True but VGK WRF's have impressed me. Avs just such a good team. EDM having a poor 1st half.
All The Kings Men
Registered User
- Apr 7, 2016
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Isn't PDO just on ice SV% + on ice SH% and the idea is that over time your average player will even out to about 1.000 meaning that anything over or under will eventually regress towards the mean?
redcard
System Poster
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Yes, pretty much that exactly. It’s as much a measure of puck luck than anything and if you wanted to stretch it’s meaning you could say it’s a measure of form in front of net. It’s therefore a stat I pay little attention to other than maybe to think about for a few seconds as to why a player is scoring more/less than you’d expect.
The kings window opens in 24-25 season with Kopitar, Walker, Roy all coming off the books and the cap going up 5 mil. The kings will have the majority of the team they now have with another 20 mil to spend filling the holes they need filling. Add to that that the current kids will be hitting their physical peaks at around 24 yrs old and the roster is in a contending position.
From this point until then you keep your picks and assets and only use them on long term investments like a Fiala trade. A Toffoli style rental is not what this team needs, it does nothing for the team like it did nothing for Vancouver. Let the roster play, get them experience and plug the holes for 24-25 when its time.
From this point until then you keep your picks and assets and only use them on long term investments like a Fiala trade. A Toffoli style rental is not what this team needs, it does nothing for the team like it did nothing for Vancouver. Let the roster play, get them experience and plug the holes for 24-25 when its time.
Seattle King
Registered User
- Aug 19, 2022
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This is why I love seeing Turcotte playing LW in Ontario. Blake is already planning ahead for AM's arrival.Just remember you’ll be replacing Kopitar’s cap hit with Matthews cap hit, so don’t count on that space.
Matthews
Byfield
Danault
Basically be a newer version of
Crosby
Malkin
J. Staal.
I think only those players needs to be signed and it will be very tight (total is 13 million):
Kupari-2 million
Vilardi-4 million
JAD-1 million
Anderson-3.5 million
Copley-2.5 million
Trash Panda
Registered User
- May 12, 2021
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Kupari and Copley both shouldn’t break the 2M mark; and the Kings are going to be really hard pressed to keep Mikey under 4.
Regardless, it is going to be pretty damn tight, even with Quick coming off the books.
lumbergh
It was an idea. I didn't say it was a good idea.
Ugh, this again. Listen, just because the inventor of the PDO stat says it's a measure of puck luck doesn't mean it's a measure of puck luck. PDO is indeed on ice Sv% + SH%, but good teams have good PDOs and good players contribute to good PDO. They have a positive correlation.
If you take a look over years and years of data, no "advanced stat" matches team success (as measured by point %) as well as PDO. Why? You have to put the puck in their net and keep the puck out of your net to win. That's essentially what PDO measures.
Some players do the little things that don't show up on the scoresheet but help the team in subtle ways. Maybe they play sound positional defense so that shots on their goalie come from less dangerous areas (Mikey Anderson is a good example). Maybe they are good at keeping the forecheck alive (Alex Iafallo, anyone). They don't always get an assist or a goal on those plays, but those things add up over the course of a season to contribute to a team's success. PDO is an efficient and easily understandable way of finding those unsung heroes of a team.
When I see posters use the terms "puck luck" and "regression towards the mean" I know it's a misunderstanding of the use of numbers. It relies on a faulty assumption that the game of hockey is random. That by chance, one shot out of every 10 or so will go in the net. Everyone knows it is NOT random. There are good teams and there are bad teams. There are good players and bad players. There are good shooters and bad shooters. There are good goalies and bad goalies. Again, and I will say this until I'm blue in the face, PDO is not a measure of "puck luck". It is a measure of general on ice quality when spread out over many games.
lumbergh
It was an idea. I didn't say it was a good idea.
Look, xGF% is getting better and better as a stat, but can anyone explain to me how it's calculated? If you told me Clarke has an xGF% of 62%, I would ask, what does that mean? How did he help the team? If his expected goals for percentage is 62%, why is his actual goals for percentage 47%? The team should be outscoring its opponents when he's on the ice, but it's actually the reverse. Notice how Brodzinski is expected to get outscored, but actually has 5 GF 2 GA? It's because his PDO is off the charts high. (Side lesson: Always be careful with small sample sizes)
If we knew how xGF% was being calculated, you'd probably be shocked at how complex the model has become over the years. It turns out that hockey is quite difficult to quantify. Tell me after you've read this blog if you have any idea what to do with xGF%.
Expected Goals (xG) Models Explained
<em>(Editors Note: <strong><a href="https://twitter.com/YuriGelfat">Yu...
jetsnation.ca
Use xGF% all you want. I respect it. I just don't get a lot out of it, especially when it's used on a single game on a single player. It's a mystery stat that doesn't tell me much. Over a half a season it might tell me that one team is better than another, but I can just read the standings.
The Kings love Iafallo. It's pretty obvious. There is no way they are letting him go. However people feel one way or another is fine but the club is going to keep him because he is a lunchpail guy who does all the little things they seem to like.
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
You and I already had this convo so not gonna rehash it haha. I've come around a little on the idea that it can measure high performers thus far but I'd still argue it has zero predictive value and if anything someone on an absolute PDO bender is likely to come back to earth as it's unlikely they'll keep up a 20% shooting % or a .970 on-ice save %.
IE we all expected/expect Vilardi's shooting % to not be 35% all year; if his PDO dips because of that, is he 'not performing?'
That's all we mean by regression to the mean. I think we can generally agree that the best teams will have slightly higher than 1 PDO and the worst slightly lower but extreme outliers are a cause for investigation.
You guys and your fancy stats.
I just turn on the TV and say "That guy looks like shit!"
I just turn on the TV and say "That guy looks like shit!"
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