Kyle Connor is elite

[bossram]

Sadly yes. Draisaitl is my biggest example of being atrocious defensively.

18-19 - 76 ES points. +2
19-20 - 66 ES points. -7
22-23 - 66 ES points. +7

When you dissect Leon, outside of the PP, for a lot of seasons, hes basically an even player or really not that much in the positive and that is wild considering he plays anywhere from 20-50% of ES ice time with 97 throughout his career. He s a consensus top 5 forward in the league right?

I agree, Id want a more defensively responsibly guy on my team, but points are points.

I also agree, Leon is overrated. He's not a true 5v5 driver either.

But again, you show you don't actually know how plus/minus is calculated (it is wildly flawed), and thus your conclusions are incorrect. Draisaitl has a 55% goal share at 5v5 the last 3 seasons, plus the start of this one. The Oilers outscored their opponents by 39 at 5v5 during this period.

Stop using plus/minus. You literally do not know what you're talking about.

 

[benfranklin]

The oilers have outscored their opponents by 50 goals even strength over the past 3 years with Draisaitl on the ice

The Avalanche have outscored their opponents by 157 goals even strength over the past 3 years with Toews on the ice.

The Panthers have outscored their opponents by 79 goals even strength over the past 3 years with Barkov on the ice.

The Oilers have outscored their opponents by 85 goals even strength over the past 3 years with McDavid on the ice.

You dont think someone who puts up as many points as Draisaitl should have a better +/-, especially when over the past 3 seasons, he is on the ice with McDavid roughly 24%, 36.8%, and 37.9% of the time respectively even strength. We can dissect further with linemates, O zone starts, and whatever else, but quick look is hard to say Draisaitl isnt much worse defensively compared to his peers.

I also agree, Leon is overrated. He's not a true 5v5 driver either.

But again, you show you don't actually know how plus/minus is calculated (it is wildly flawed), and thus your conclusions are incorrect. Draisaitl has a 55% goal share at 5v5 the last 3 seasons, plus the start of this one. The Oilers outscored their opponents by 39 at 5v5 during this period.

Stop using plus/minus. You literally do not know what you're talking about.

It isnt that complicated to "know how plus/minus is calculated."

According to the NHL, it is calculated as follows: “A player is awarded a 'plus' each time he is on the ice when his club scores an even-strength or shorthanded goal. He receives a 'minus' if he is on the ice for an even-strength or shorthanded goal scored by the opposing club.”

Plus minus is literally calculated by even strength goals for and goals against while player x is on the ice, plus the rare shorthanded goal. Could he step on the ice and have zero impact in the play and be credited in either direction? Yes, but still a stat to somewhat tell what a players impact has albeit not perfect.

 

[bossram]

It isnt that complicated to "know how plus/minus is calculated."

According to the NHL, it is calculated as follows: “A player is awarded a 'plus' each time he is on the ice when his club scores an even-strength or shorthanded goal. He receives a 'minus' if he is on the ice for an even-strength or shorthanded goal scored by the opposing club.”

Plus minus is literally calculated by even strength goals for and goals against while player x is on the ice, plus the rare shorthanded goal. Could he step on the ice and have zero impact in the play and be credited in either direction? Yes, but still a stat to somewhat tell what a players impact has albeit not perfect.

Evidently you still don't know. Because you keep referring to it as evidence of 5v5 play, when plus/minus is really not reflective of 5v5 play.

Clearly you don't know that plus/minus includes empty net goals. This massively skews what it's supposed to represent, and makes it essentially meaningless.

 

[Cursed Lemon]

 

[dgibb10]

The Avalanche have outscored their opponents by 157 goals even strength over the past 3 years with Toews on the ice.

The Panthers have outscored their opponents by 79 goals even strength over the past 3 years with Barkov on the ice.

The Oilers have outscored their opponents by 85 goals even strength over the past 3 years with McDavid on the ice.

You dont think someone who puts up as many points as Draisaitl should have a better +/-, especially when over the past 3 seasons, he is on the ice with McDavid roughly 24%, 36.8%, and 37.9% of the time respectively even strength. We can dissect further with linemates, O zone starts, and whatever else, but quick look is hard to say Draisaitl isnt much worse defensively compared to his peers.


It isnt that complicated to "know how plus/minus is calculated."

According to the NHL, it is calculated as follows: “A player is awarded a 'plus' each time he is on the ice when his club scores an even-strength or shorthanded goal. He receives a 'minus' if he is on the ice for an even-strength or shorthanded goal scored by the opposing club.”

Plus minus is literally calculated by even strength goals for and goals against while player x is on the ice, plus the rare shorthanded goal. Could he step on the ice and have zero impact in the play and be credited in either direction? Yes, but still a stat to somewhat tell what a players impact has albeit not perfect.

McDavid and Barkov are also dominant superstars.

Toews isn't a superstar, however he is a star and also plays 90% of his minutes with the best dman in the league.

What do you think you have proven?

 

[Daximus]

You'd have to have a lose definition of elite to say Connor is in that category overall. Is he can elite shooter? Absolutely. But he would need to be better in a lot of other aspects to be elite overall.

With that said he is a major reason the team is doing so well early on and the bounces seem to be going his way. I assume that will even out as we face tougher competition later on. Jets have a pretty easy early schedule that gets tougher in the middle before evening out down the stretch so if he can keep it going throughout the middle of the season I see no reason why he can't hit 50 but it's gonna be an uphill battle.

He was on a heater to start last year as well pacing the lead league before getting injured and just never got back to that level.

 

[benfranklin]

McDavid and Barkov are also dominant superstars.

Toews isn't a superstar, however he is a star and also plays 90% of his minutes with the best dman in the league.

What do you think you have proven?

Its pretty obvious. Leon plays near 40% of his ES with McDavid so his +/- numbers are pumped up by his so hypothesis is Leon is pretty awful defensively on his own.

Point being going back to the initial comment is that you can be "elite" and be a net negative player +/- wise, which Kyle Connor is.

 

[dgibb10]

Its pretty obvious. Leon plays near 40% of his ES with McDavid so his +/- numbers are pumped up by his so hypothesis is Leon is pretty awful defensively on his own.

Point being going back to the initial comment is that you can be "elite" and be a net negative player +/- wise, which Kyle Connor is.

Leon is a net +ve player even strength and has been since 2017-18 + arguably the best PP weapon in the league.

 

[benfranklin]

Evidently you still don't know. Because you keep referring to it as evidence of 5v5 play, when plus/minus is really not reflective of 5v5 play.

Clearly you don't know that plus/minus includes empty net goals. This massively skews what it's supposed to represent, and makes it essentially meaningless.

I dont think I once said 5v5 as 5v5 does not mean even strength. And just because it includes empty net situations, doesnt mean you completely disregard the stat from having some value.

Since Kucherov is the king of empty net points, lets analyze him.

Kucherov

While his net is empty - 8 GF 15 GA
Against an empty net - 18 GF 3 GA
Total - 26 GF 18 GA = +8

Draisaitl

While his net is empty - 6 GF 15 GA
Against an empty net - 9 GF 1 GA
Total - 15 GF 16 GA = -1

Connor

While his net is empty - 1 GF 8 GA
Against an empty net - 6 GF 2 GA
Total - 7 GF 10 GA = -3

Makar

While his net is empty - 2 GF 8 GA
Against an empty net - 13 GF 2 GA
Total - 15 GF 10 GA = +5

Four superstars and empty net situations affect them, but not in the dramatic way youre referring to.

Im with you that +/- shouldn't include empty net situations, but to completely throw out the stat as meaningless because of it is silly.

Leon is a net +ve player even strength and has been since 2017-18 + arguably the best PP weapon in the league.

10000%. PP is where he is most valuable. No one is denying that. Im more criticizing his even strength defensive play.

If were excluding PP time, then no, 4 of his 10 seasons, he was a negative player. I can go and see how many of those were empty net situations to put an asterisk on it, but that statistically isnt accurate.

 

[bossram]

I dont think I once said 5v5 as 5v5 does not mean even strength. And just because it includes empty net situations, doesnt mean you completely disregard the stat from having some value.

Since Kucherov is the king of empty net points, lets analyze him.

Kucherov

While his net is empty - 8 GF 15 GA
Against an empty net - 18 GF 3 GA
Total - 26 GF 18 GA = +8

Draisaitl

While his net is empty - 6 GF 15 GA
Against an empty net - 9 GF 1 GA
Total - 15 GF 16 GA = -1

Connor

While his net is empty - 1 GF 8 GA
Against an empty net - 6 GF 2 GA
Total - 7 GF 10 GA = -3

Makar

While his net is empty - 2 GF 8 GA
Against an empty net - 13 GF 2 GA
Total - 15 GF 10 GA = +5

Four superstars and empty net situations affect them, but not in the dramatic way youre referring to.

Im with you that +/- shouldn't include empty net situations, but to completely throw out the stat as meaningless because of it is silly.

It is meaningless, because what you're trying to convey with plus/minus isn't accurately reflected. If you want to describe a player's even-strength or 5v5 play....you can simply look at the data that is purely EV or 5v5! Why are you mixing the game states? It's dumb.

Why the hell are you equating an EN situation to EV, as plus/minus does. It's horrible analysis. Plus/minus is moreso a reflection of a players empty net goal differential. It's just dumb.

 

[Voight]

I think he'd certainly get a lot more recognition if he played for a team like Toronto, New York, Pittsburgh etc

 

[Jumptheshark]

He's got to be one of the most underrated players in the NHL. He's quietly put up 251 pts in his last 236 regular season games. It's too bad he plays in a small market, if he was on a big market team he would be getting a lot more spotlight.

I think this year he finally scores 50 goals and will likely put up 90-100pts. He's on another level this year.

He is very good but can be streaky

 

[bobbyking]

lol wtf

 

[Ossific]

It is meaningless, because what you're trying to convey with plus/minus isn't accurately reflected. If you want to describe a player's even-strength or 5v5 play....you can simply look at the data that is purely EV or 5v5! Why are you mixing the game states? It's dumb.

Why the hell are you equating an EN situation to EV, as plus/minus does. It's horrible analysis. Plus/minus is moreso a reflection of a players empty net goal differential. It's just dumb.

I'm not going to say I agree or disagree with you, but my god, your ability to argue is horrid.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I really don’t know the answer to the question till someone can define elite and generational. Connor is better than most, but, he is not in in the top 30 nevermind top 15 so by that definition not elite.

 

[34]

I am no Jets fan, but Kyle Connor is an absolute stud. He is so underrated out there in Winnipeg. I would take him over Draisaitl easily.

 

[bossram]

I'm not going to say I agree or disagree with you, but my god, your ability to argue is horrid.

It would seem that way if you lack any reading comprehension or analytical ability.

Here you go: Plus/minus = bad. Perhaps that is simple enough for you to understand.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

Every year he has lived up to his salary and more.

Curious what type of deal he signs. I imagine Jets will lure him in with the 8th year.

 

[Bender Duster]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1852524780001337486

Yeah he’s got some skills.

 

[Keystone]

I don’t know if the stats reflect it, but his effort level on the back check is noticeably better this year. Along with adding a dangerous offensive element to the penalty kill has made him a more balanced and valuable player this year. Maybe not elite, but not far off.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I don’t know if the stats reflect it, but his effort level on the back check is noticeably better this year. Along with adding a dangerous offensive element to the penalty kill has made him a more balanced and valuable player this year. Maybe not elite, but not far off.

Kyle Connor is better at every aspect of the game this year. He is defering less to schief and is driving that first line. So the old criticism's of KC are less valid. I don't know how we are defining elite, though. I would still think Kaprizov, Ratanen, McD, Tkachuk, Barkov to name just a few are all better nevermind D who make more of an impact, so what is the definition of elite and how many elite players are in the league?

 

[StumpyTown]

Since the 2017-2018 season, Connor is 8th on the goal scoring list. If being top 10 as a goal scorer over the course of 7 seasons isn't elite, then I'm not sure what the definition is.

 

[Buffdog]

Good to see that the same Statsnerds we see on HFJets are on the main boards too

A player doesn't have to be elite at 5v5 to be elite overall. Sure, players spend more time at 5v5 than PP... but relatively speaking, PP time is more important per minute since more goals get scored there per minute played

Goals count in ALL situations - for an offensive player, you have to take into account their impact on all aspect of the game, meaning their goal share at evens AND PP - unless you somehow believe that goals count more at 5v5 or something

It wouldn't be wise to compare the value of Connor vs, say, Lowry (who PKs but isn't on thr power play) with total goal dofferential, but we aren't comparing Connor to anyone but Connor here

 

[PullHard]

He’s an electric offensive talent. A consistent goal scorer. Historically his defensive efforts have been pretty disappointing but it seems likes he’s finally trying add some of those tools to his game. I appreciate the talent he has, I’m not sure I’d ever describe him as “elite” at anything other than goal scoring but he’s a fun player for sure.

 

[heretik27]

He missed a few games due to covid protocol the year he was in the hunt for 50G + 50A. I'd say he looks even better this year in all 3 zones. So long as he can continue this level of play, he's going to hit 50 goals this year imo.