Value of: Kotkaniemi

[GIN ANTONIC]

How about even up for Ristolainen?

Maybe? He's not necessarily the RHD I would target but I don't hate it. Canes need size and physicality. RR has that and Rod and the coaching staff have shown the ability to take flawed players with good raw tools and turn them into really good contributors.

 

[Barsky]

They’ll just let him be claimed on waivers rather than buy him out, retain or attach an asset with him. Somebody will claim him, no doubt.

No one is touching that contract on waivers, that's almost guaranteed

 

[Quatre Vingt Treize]

Dundon has been going to the cap already; it simply reduces the cap space by <1% while opening up $4M in cap space for the next 5 years.

I think many owners can justify paying $850K a year to gain $4M in cap space.

I think a lot of the trades suggested here would be things Carolina would do. If they can move Kotkaniemi without attaching picks or retaining I think they jump at that.

I've seen a lot of mention of Carolina just retaining the $850K. The problem there is if the acquiring team buys out Kotkaniemi, Carolina still ends up with the long-term buyout hit on the retained salary. Might as well just buy him out yourself given it's only $850K/yr if that's the case.

They should be able to move him for a second round pick. Saves owner around 20 million dollars and team 1m caphit next 8 years.

 

[SirPaste]

KK for Faulk

 

[Chrispy]

They should be able to move him for a second round pick. Saves owner around 20 million dollars and team 1m caphit next 8 years.

If they are going to move him, I'd be happy with that as a return.

Truth is he's a solid even strength 3C who is terrible on the PP and has very little experience on the PK. So if you can afford to carry a 3C who shouldn't be on the PP and hasn't had much opportunity on the PK, he would work well there.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Kotkaniemi's contract will naturally look better as time goes on. We're still in flat cap mode. It was a $4.4 mil equiavlent this season ($81.5 mil baseline). It's a $4.11 mil equivalent in 25-26. Then it drops to a $3.78 mil equivalent in 26-27. The last year with a cap estimate available, 27-28, it's a $3.46 mil equivalent. He started at low-end 2C money and will be paid like a pure 3C in a few years.

 

[CTHabsfan]

They should be able to move him for a second round pick. Saves owner around 20 million dollars and team 1m caphit next 8 years.

The Hurricanes would jump at that offer, but I can't see anyone willing to make that deal.

 

[Quatre Vingt Treize]

The Hurricanes would jump at that offer, but I can't see anyone willing to make that deal.

Should be doable. He's bottom 6 center, overpaid but not grossly overpaid. A late first would do it for sure

 

[Lshap]

He was literally 2nd on the team in 5v5 scoring this year, and he's top 60 among centers in 5v5 p/60 since he became a Hurricane.

Here's Carolina's 5v5 scoring this past year. Kotkaniemi is 8th on his team in points, tied for 6th in goals:

FYI: He's 82nd among centers in 5v5 scoring since joining Carolina (I didn't see a P/60 column for even strength).

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Here's Carolina's 5v5 scoring this past year. Kotkaniemi is 8th on his team in points, tied for 6th in goals:

View attachment 1044267

FYI: He's 82nd among centers in 5v5 scoring since joining Carolina (I didn't see a P/60 column for even strength).

That's ES scoring, not 5v5.

 

[Chrispy]

That's ES scoring, not 5v5.

Yes. Here's 5x5 from Natural Stat Trick.

Note Kotkaniemi played 965:28 at 5x5 this season, and 983:52 at even strength.

Kotkaniemi played a total of 18 minutes and change at 4x4 or 3x3 all season.

 

[Lshap]

That's ES scoring, not 5v5.

Yes. Here's 5x5 from Natural Stat Trick.

Note Kotkaniemi played 965:28 at 5x5 this season, and 983:52 at even strength.

Kotkaniemi played a total of 18 minutes and change at 4x4 or 3x3 all season.

Thanks. I should've been clearer about 5v5 versus ES, however the difference is negligible.

The point is that Kokaniemi is an okay depth player, however there are better ways to spend that kind of money for a team whose window is now.

 

[Ford Prefect]

I think the question is, are you able to replace what he provides at with a more efficient contract? Assuming they bought him out, would they be able to find another bottom 6 center that can either contribute what he does for less than 4M? I'm not sure they can, especially with the cap rising. I also think that even if they don't retain, they'll still get something for him. Maybe a team who thinks they can squeeze something more out of him. Just a gut feeling, but maybe Philly takes a Flyer on him. Ha ha. But seriously, I think they might.

I was critical of the deal when it was signed, and as a Habs fan was overjoyed when it appeared to be an albatross. But when the cap is going to go up over $100 million in a few years, is 4.5%-4.6% of your cap an unreasonable figure for a 3C? I don;t think so. The real question I guess is do they see him as even a 3C? He was benched in the playoffs, which you typically don't do with your 3C. If he's more of a 4C, then I think a buyout may be reasonable. Those roles can be filled with players on smaller contracts.

 

[dgibb10]

I don't think the problem with KK to Car is his value if you play him as a 3C. The money is fine for that role and impact.

The problem is he's worse than Staal, and carolina needs a 2C.

If they fill that 2C hole, KK becomes a 4C. 5 mill for your 4C is bad value. KK as your 2C is also not feasible.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Thanks. I should've been clearer about 5v5 versus ES, however the difference is negligible.

The point is that Kokaniemi is an okay depth player, however there are better ways to spend that kind of money for a team whose window is now.

ES includes EN points, which is why there's such a significant difference.

At 5v5, KK's p/60 is indeed top 60 among true centers over the last 4 years. He produces like a low end 2C / high end 3C with great possession and FO numbers while bringing a level of physicality and grit. 5M really isn't an overpayment for that sort of player.

 

[Lshap]

ES includes EN points, which is why there's such a significant difference.

At 5v5, KK's p/60 is indeed top 60 among true centers over the last 4 years. He produces like a low end 2C / high end 3C with great possession and FO numbers while bringing a level of physicality and grit. 5M really isn't an overpayment for that sort of player.

Disagree. If 5v5 represents his very best, it just illustrates how poor (or non-existent) the rest of his game is. Kotkaniemi produced a total of 33 points this past season – 100th among centers. Since joining Carolina he's 93 among centers. The bottom line is that's nowhere near a 2C.

Yes, he has value as a depth center who's good on faceoffs. But, IMO, he's simply not worth the cap space he currently takes up.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I would gladly trade Goodrow and a 3rd for Kotkaniemi.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Disagree. If 5v5 represents his very best, it just illustrates how poor (or non-existent) the rest of his game is.

All it illustrates is that there are other players on the team that are given priority for those roles. He's not a great fit for Rod's PK system compared to guys like Staal, Martinook, Aho, and Jarvis, and he plays behind a bunch of guys on the PP. That doesn't mean he can't fill those roles, he just doesn't in Carolina.

Kotkaniemi produced a total of 33 points this past season – 100th among centers. Since joining Carolina he's 93 among centers.

He can only produce in the ice time he's given. Of course he's not going to pile up a ton of PP points when he's only on the ice for ~15 seconds of controlled zone possession per PP

The bottom line is that's nowhere near a 2C.

Yes, he has value as a depth center who's good on faceoffs. But, IMO, he's simply not worth the cap space he currently takes up.

The term "2C" or "3C" refers to where the player slots at 5v5. His production rates alone over the course of a 4 year span put him firmly in middle 6 territory. He's not really utilized much outside of 5v5 (aside from the last 30 seconds of the PP, where the team usually has to regain the zone before anything happens), but as I alluded to earlier, that doesn't mean he's incapable.

He's really exactly what the Devils need. We have our special teams already pretty much set, but we really need a solid, responsible 3C who can win faceoffs, play physical, and produce at 5v5. KK does all of those things and is still only 24. He's very easily worth 5M.

 

[Lshap]

All it illustrates is that there are other players on the team that are given priority for those roles. He's not a great fit for Rod's PK system compared to guys like Staal, Martinook, Aho, and Jarvis, and he plays behind a bunch of guys on the PP. That doesn't mean he can't fill those roles, he just doesn't in Carolina.

He can only produce in the ice time he's given. Of course he's not going to pile up a ton of PP points when he's only on the ice for ~15 seconds of controlled zone possession per PP

The term "2C" or "3C" refers to where the player slots at 5v5. His production rates alone over the course of a 4 year span put him firmly in middle 6 territory. He's not really utilized much outside of 5v5 (aside from the last 30 seconds of the PP, where the team usually has to regain the zone before anything happens), but as I alluded to earlier, that doesn't mean he's incapable.

He's really exactly what the Devils need. We have our special teams already pretty much set, but we really need a solid, responsible 3C who can win faceoffs, play physical, and produce at 5v5. KK does all of those things and is still only 24. He's very easily worth 5M.

Canes fans used to say the same about Kotkaniemi – he wasn't given the opportunity or ice-time to produce. I'm sure some still feel that way, but I'm reading more fans who are saying he hasn't been good enough to earn those opportunities. A chicken-and-egg debate.

Of course, our opinions on HF count for less than we think and are often totally wrong. I don't see the same player you do, but I have no issue being proven wrong if the NHL market says otherwise. I guess we'll see what (if anything) happens to the kid.

 

[StreetHawk]

Canes fans used to say the same about Kotkaniemi – he wasn't given the opportunity or ice-time to produce. I'm sure some still feel that way, but I'm reading more fans who are saying he hasn't been good enough to earn those opportunities. A chicken-and-egg debate.

Of course, our opinions on HF count for less than we think and are often totally wrong. I don't see the same player you do, but I have no issue being proven wrong if the NHL market says otherwise. I guess we'll see what (if anything) happens to the kid.

I think most posters here, after 7 NHL seasons (though that does need to be put into perspective since he started immediately as an 18 year old vs coming in at age 20 and being more prepared), that people have now made up their minds on him based on how he has played and produced.