Player Discussion Kirby Dach (Part 3): TabarDach Edition!

[Lafleurs Guy]

Man, I get it. I remember 2 years ago being so excited by the way he looked at camp. As you say, big guy with skills and speed. I was excited about the possibilities, but I just can't think of when he was a solid number 2. At what point was it that he actually WAS a solid number 2C. Not this year. Not the year before that he missed. His first year here? He definitely had better +- numbers, but I recall him struggling on and off, and they kept moving him to the wing with Suzuki to get him jump started... I dunno if I really recall 2C Dach actually existing... except for potential. Several hot streaks doesn't a 2C make.

They weren't hot streaks. It was him getting healthy and then getting hurt... He just was never able to establish himself. But he was a legit talent and it's a shame we've lost him.

 

[ExReHabs]

Why is it disingenuous to say he was used as their 2C when that's the position he played for them? Even the 6 in 11 he had with them is a 45 point pace less then the pace you first said was completely unacceptable for a 2C.

You talk about them being stacked as if that makes it a bad comparison when it's actually the entire point. When a team is stacked in some areas it compensates for a weaknesses in another area. Chicago could get away with a weak 2C because they had strengths at wing, Pittsburgh's cups had terrible wingers but it was compensated by being stacked at C.

An example from over 10 years ago to play this card in defence of Dach is just disingenuous. I dunno what you’re expecting to hear from me…

Handzus and Dach are nothing alike. Handzus was a deadline acquisition (didn’t have time to gel with the team) and did indeed play 2C for their campaign but his most static deployment was as a PKer. He was a veteran defensive-minded addition to the skilled and deep CHI roster.

Is that comparable to Dach? I’m not sure it’s even worth discussing.

If Dach brought what Handzus brought and if our lineup had the sort of pieces CHI had then sure a [era adjusted equivalent] 45pts pace from the deadline to the end of season and a [era adjusted equivalent] 40pt pace playing hard minutes in the playoffs is okay. Sure indeed.

 

[HabsMD97]

The more I think about it, I've kind of come around on him. I still haven't given up on him, he was really starting to find his game before the injury. He didn't have a good offseason, hopefully he learns from that and puts in the work for next season. Here's a few things that make me hopeful;

1. It's a contract year, players generally have a career year (see Evans, Jake)
2. He'll mostly likely have better linemates next season if Hughes has a good offseason.
3. Here are his stats pre and post Carrier trade:

Pre Carrier (5v5)
CF%: 41.13%
FF%: 42.11%
GF%: 27.59% ()
xGF%: 41.69%
xGA/60: 3.47 ()
PTS/60: 0.79 () (this is slighty more than a defensive defensemen is expected to produce 5v5..)
Shots/60: 6.67
ixG: 0.95 (this shocked me, he led the team which is a good sign)

Post Carrier (5v5)
CF%: 48.48%
FF%: 49.14%
GF%: 41.18%
xGF%: 49.78%
xGA/60: 2.6
PTS/60: 1.43 (although he didn't have a single primary assist in 26 games)
Shots/60: 5.79
ixG: 0.66

If we break it down further post Carrier, here are his stats away from Laine (139 min away from him 5v5):
CF%: 50.69%
FF%: 52.88%
GF%: 31.25% (mainly bc of bad luck)
xGF%: 57.51% (Extremely encouraging)
xGA/60: 2.41

Dach has always been overrated offensively. Even during his best years his production 5v5 was equivalent to a 3rd liners. He's never been a good playmaker at the NHL level, but he did a lot good things on the ice. We'll see if he can get his career back on track, but i wouldn't give up on him yet.

 

[ExReHabs]

The more I think about it, I've kind of come around on him. I still haven't given up on him, he was really starting to find his game before the injury. He didn't have a good offseason, hopefully he learns from that and puts in the work for next season. Here's a few things that make me hopeful;

1. It's a contract year, players generally have a career year (see Evans, Jake)
2. He'll mostly likely have better linemates next season if Hughes has a good offseason.
3. Here are his stats pre and post Carrier trade:

Pre Carrier (5v5)
CF%: 41.13%
FF%: 42.11%
GF%: 27.59% ()
xGF%: 41.69%
xGA/60: 3.47 ()
PTS/60: 0.79 () (this is slighty more than a defensive defensemen is expected to produce 5v5..)
Shots/60: 6.67
ixG: 0.95 (this shocked me, he led the team which is a good sign)

Post Carrier (5v5)
CF%: 48.48%
FF%: 49.14%
GF%: 41.18%
xGF%: 49.78%
xGA/60: 2.6
PTS/60: 1.43 (although he didn't have a single primary assist in 26 games)
Shots/60: 5.79
ixG: 0.66

If we break it down further post Carrier, here are his stats away from Laine (139 min away from him 5v5):
CF%: 50.69%
FF%: 52.88%
GF%: 31.25% (mainly bc of bad luck)
xGF%: 57.51% (Extremely encouraging)
xGA/60: 2.41

Dach has always been overrated offensively. Even during his best years his production 5v5 was equivalent to a 3rd liners. He's never been a good playmaker at the NHL level, but he did a lot good things on the ice. We'll see if he can get his career back on track, but i wouldn't give up on him yet.

Worth listing the actual stats too, isn’t it?13pts in 26gp post Carrier trade, etc.

On an analysis level I’m not sure why you used /60 stats. Do you find them reflective of the game as it is played? An exploitation-line sorta player (poor defensively, middle6 scorer) like Dach would have attractive enough /60 stats because he doesn’t play against top opposition or play heavy minutes.

I find /60 stats to be hard to get right, and xGA etc. is really hard to beat for being totally noisy.

What were his zone starts?

 

[Goalfield22]

The more I think about it, I've kind of come around on him. I still haven't given up on him, he was really starting to find his game before the injury. He didn't have a good offseason, hopefully he learns from that and puts in the work for next season. Here's a few things that make me hopeful;

1. It's a contract year, players generally have a career year (see Evans, Jake)
2. He'll mostly likely have better linemates next season if Hughes has a good offseason.
3. Here are his stats pre and post Carrier trade:

Pre Carrier (5v5)
CF%: 41.13%
FF%: 42.11%
GF%: 27.59% ()
xGF%: 41.69%
xGA/60: 3.47 ()
PTS/60: 0.79 () (this is slighty more than a defensive defensemen is expected to produce 5v5..)
Shots/60: 6.67
ixG: 0.95 (this shocked me, he led the team which is a good sign)

Post Carrier (5v5)
CF%: 48.48%
FF%: 49.14%
GF%: 41.18%
xGF%: 49.78%
xGA/60: 2.6
PTS/60: 1.43 (although he didn't have a single primary assist in 26 games)
Shots/60: 5.79
ixG: 0.66

If we break it down further post Carrier, here are his stats away from Laine (139 min away from him 5v5):
CF%: 50.69%
FF%: 52.88%
GF%: 31.25% (mainly bc of bad luck)
xGF%: 57.51% (Extremely encouraging)
xGA/60: 2.41

Dach has always been overrated offensively. Even during his best years his production 5v5 was equivalent to a 3rd liners. He's never been a good playmaker at the NHL level, but he did a lot good things on the ice. We'll see if he can get his career back on track, but i wouldn't give up on him yet.

I like him as a winger. That's where he should play when he gets back.

 

[Unclewhalebone]

When a goalie is pulled it still counts as Even Strength play. He's a -9 on the season because there's also 4 GA when on the PP. His -5 at "Even Strength" includes a -12 because we pulled the goalie, that -12 isn't because he's a rookie who was taking chances he shouldn't have and got burned, it's because when you pull the goalie more often then not you get scored against. If you can't see that context like that matters then really there's no point in continuing to even talk about Dach.

The negatives for pulled goalies has been throughout the year. Hutson's plus minus at whatever strength has improved throughout the year because he DID get burned more at the start of the year and has improved over the course of 73 games. The 5v5, even strength whatever you like all show the same thing.

With Dach we can take your 5v5 numbers if you like because his minus gets less bad, but so does the minus of many other players. Relative to his teammates, his stats are still an abomination.

When a goalie is pulled it still counts as Even Strength play. He's a -9 on the season because there's also 4 GA when on the PP. His -5 at "Even Strength" includes a -12 because we pulled the goalie, that -12 isn't because he's a rookie who was taking chances he shouldn't have and got burned, it's because when you pull the goalie more often then not you get scored against. If you can't see that context like that matters then really there's no point in continuing to even talk about Dach.

I'm honestly just not sure what you are trying to convince me. You seem to be telling me that Dach's defence is fine ... provided he generates more offence than Suzuki. If that is the argument then I guess you have me convinced. Sure. It is fine that Dach is leaking goals at a furious rate. He just needs to be the top offensive generator on the team and he can break even.

If you are trying to convince me that Dach still has potential, I already agree, but as you know, I think he needs to get his defensive game in order so that there is less pressure to produce. He is not a good candidate to start at 2C.

Hutson did take more chances at the start of the year and DID get burned because of it. He cleaned up his defensive game and it made him more effective at 5v5.

Here is a graph with the data you pointed to.

It shows GF-GA (5v5!!!!) over each game of the season for Suzuki, Hutson and Dach

Suzuki is steady Eddie, methodically outplaying his opposition and ending clearly to the plus at this point.

Dach is also steady Eddie, methodically being outplayed at a rate of about 2x the amount that Suzuki can keep up with.

Hutson starts the year slowly trending negative at 5v5. At around game 33 (right after christmas) that trend reverses. There is a peak and there is another reversal to the positive right around the 4 Nations. Sure looks like he might have cleaned up some early season warts.

 

[Unclewhalebone]

He wasn't overmatched when he was healthy. The problem is that he was never healthy enough to last.

He was a solid number two and if he'd stayed healthy he'd have been one of the better 2nd line centers in the league. But now he's missed so much hockey over his development years I don't know what's going to happen with him. His career might already be over. One more big injury and it definitely will be. It sucks.

Im just wondering when it was that he was playing like a 2C in the right chair in Montreal. I truly am unsure.
Like I said, you will have no arguement from me on his potential.

 

[Sorinth]

The negatives for pulled goalies has been throughout the year. Hutson's plus minus at whatever strength has improved throughout the year because he DID get burned more at the start of the year and has improved over the course of 73 games. The 5v5, even strength whatever you like all show the same thing.

With Dach we can take your 5v5 numbers if you like because his minus gets less bad, but so does the minus of many other players. Relative to his teammates, his stats are still an abomination.

I'm honestly just not sure what you are trying to convince me. You seem to be telling me that Dach's defence is fine ... provided he generates more offence than Suzuki. If that is the argument then I guess you have me convinced. Sure. It is fine that Dach is leaking goals at a furious rate. He just needs to be the top offensive generator on the team and he can break even.

If you are trying to convince me that Dach still has potential, I already agree, but as you know, I think he needs to get his defensive game in order so that there is less pressure to produce. He is not a good candidate to start at 2C.

Hutson did take more chances at the start of the year and DID get burned because of it. He cleaned up his defensive game and it made him more effective at 5v5.

Here is a graph with the data you pointed to.View attachment 1004186

It shows GF-GA (5v5!!!!) over each game of the season for Suzuki, Hutson and Dach

Suzuki is steady Eddie, methodically outplaying his opposition and ending clearly to the plus at this point.

Dach is also steady Eddie, methodically being outplayed at a rate of about 2x the amount that Suzuki can keep up with.

Hutson starts the year slowly trending negative at 5v5. At around game 33 (right after christmas) that trend reverses. There is a peak and there is another reversal to the positive right around the 4 Nations. Sure looks like he might have cleaned up some early season warts.

Using goal differential when we were talking defensive play and goals against is misleading. Here's the actual GA numbers. Note I did this myself and could only find an export using ES GA not 5v5 goals against which I would have prefered.

Shows pretty clearly that Dach was pretty close to Suzuki in terms of goals against. Now this ignores the context that Suzuki plays more minutes, had harder matchups, and all that stuff so this isn't meant to say Dach is close to being as good defensively as Suzuki because he clearly isn't. What it does highlight is that the major failing of the 2nd line was a lack of scoring.

Additionally we have to keep in mind that better offence that generally means less GA because the best defence is spending your shift in the OZ. So there's a good chance that Demidov "fixes" the 2nd line even without a big upgrade on the 2C, so it's simply not the biggest priority. The biggest priority is an upgrade on D. Now if Reinbacher can come in and have a Guhle level of impact straight away then that probably changes the calculus, but Reinbacher is a big question mark in terms of NHL impact, and given D generally take a few seasons to get comfortable and impactful we should assume a low impact when talking next season.

 

[Bacchus1]

Probably not a full ACL or else he’d be gone for 9-12 months.

What is the time line for his return? Is he likely to be ready for the playoffs if we get there? Or is he done for the year?

 

[SpeedyPotato]

What is the time line for his return? Is he likely to be ready for the playoffs if we get there? Or is he done for the year?

It all depends on what his injury is and I don’t have that info, sure seems like the habs think he won’t be back this year but would be ready for next if I understood correctly ?

 

[sampollock]

any news on this guy... so quite

 

[badfish]

any news on this guy... so quite

I found that odd too, last time there were many feel good stories about how he was coping well and hanging with the team and attending scouting meetings but this time crickets.

 

[Unclewhalebone]

Using goal differential when we were talking defensive play and goals against is misleading. Here's the actual GA numbers. Note I did this myself and could only find an export using ES GA not 5v5 goals against which I would have prefered.
View attachment 1004819

Shows pretty clearly that Dach was pretty close to Suzuki in terms of goals against. Now this ignores the context that Suzuki plays more minutes, had harder matchups, and all that stuff so this isn't meant to say Dach is close to being as good defensively as Suzuki because he clearly isn't. What it does highlight is that the major failing of the 2nd line was a lack of scoring.

Additionally we have to keep in mind that better offence that generally means less GA because the best defence is spending your shift in the OZ. So there's a good chance that Demidov "fixes" the 2nd line even without a big upgrade on the 2C, so it's simply not the biggest priority. The biggest priority is an upgrade on D. Now if Reinbacher can come in and have a Guhle level of impact straight away then that probably changes the calculus, but Reinbacher is a big question mark in terms of NHL impact, and given D generally take a few seasons to get comfortable and impactful we should assume a low impact when talking next season.

The more minutes and harder matchups and stuff was discussed before. You brought up GA/60 which accounts for TOI. Dach had a GA/60 of (3.45). Coincidentally, Suzuki has basically the same GF/60 (3.61). So you are saying to me that as long as Dach just brings his level of driving offence to that of Suzuki he's fine defensively (breaking even), and the solution to the 2nd line is Dach + a winger who has played 0 games in the NHL. Surely that should do it. It's a sure bet given the data we have been looking at.

I'm not a betting man, but I would absolutely bet my hard earned money that a 2nd line of Demidov-Dach-X would be a mess defensively; especially since the X is probably Laine. Hopefully we don't ever have to see it.

Better offence doesn't always mean better defence. Plenty of the highest point-getters have the highest GA, and GA/60 on their team. These players play the best opposition and the most minutes.

Dach should be playing 3C or probably better yet on the wing. He can come back after injury and get some confidence, and work on his game, offensively and defesively. I mean you are not wrong that he needs to produce more to be effective, but it is not enough just to get a few more points.

Also, don't get me wrong; I think we need a solid RD as well. I wouldn''t count on anything from Reinbacher til he has played more than a few pro games in NA. I just think it would be a massive dis-service to the team to start with Dach as the 2C.

 

[Sorinth]

The more minutes and harder matchups and stuff was discussed before. You brought up GA/60 which accounts for TOI. Dach had a GA/60 of (3.45). Coincidentally, Suzuki has basically the same GF/60 (3.61). So you are saying to me that as long as Dach just brings his level of driving offence to that of Suzuki he's fine defensively (breaking even), and the solution to the 2nd line is Dach + a winger who has played 0 games in the NHL. Surely that should do it. It's a sure bet given the data we have been looking at.

I'm not a betting man, but I would absolutely bet my hard earned money that a 2nd line of Demidov-Dach-X would be a mess defensively; especially since the X is probably Laine. Hopefully we don't ever have to see it.

Better offence doesn't always mean better defence. Plenty of the highest point-getters have the highest GA, and GA/60 on their team. These players play the best opposition and the most minutes.

Dach should be playing 3C or probably better yet on the wing. He can come back after injury and get some confidence, and work on his game, offensively and defesively. I mean you are not wrong that he needs to produce more to be effective, but it is not enough just to get a few more points.

Also, don't get me wrong; I think we need a solid RD as well. I wouldn''t count on anything from Reinbacher til he has played more than a few pro games in NA. I just think it would be a massive dis-service to the team to start with Dach as the 2C.

No I've never said Dach has to reach Suzuki's offence, not sure where you even got that. This discussion has never been about claiming Dach is amazing. It's been about which is the bigger need, the 2C or adding a high end D.

You can scoff at Laine-Dach on a line together being a defensive mess but when looking at GA/60 before and after Laine came back, we see Dach was better by about half a goal against per 60 minute. Now the caveat there is that a few weeks after Laine came back we also added Carrier so it's impossible to tell how much is Laine vs Carrier, but either way it points towards adding a D over a C as the better option (Assuming we can't do both).

 

[Scriptor]

No I've never said Dach has to reach Suzuki's offence, not sure where you even got that. This discussion has never been about claiming Dach is amazing. It's been about which is the bigger need, the 2C or adding a high end D.

You can scoff at Laine-Dach on a line together being a defensive mess but when looking at GA/60 before and after Laine came back, we see Dach was better by about half a goal against per 60 minute. Now the caveat there is that a few weeks after Laine came back we also added Carrier so it's impossible to tell how much is Laine vs Carrier, but either way it points towards adding a D over a C as the better option (Assuming we can't do both).

I think that Hughes has the assets to trade for one solution and the UFA market to acquire the other. Both needs could successfully be addressed.

 

[Wats]

If Dach is the sacrifice needed to have Suzuki become a 90pt player... might have to accept the deal.

 

[Sorinth]

I think that Hughes has the assets to trade for one solution and the UFA market to acquire the other. Both needs could successfully be addressed.

It's certainly possible and I think everyone is 100% in agreement that we would do both. But for the sake of discussion and frankly realism I'm not sure it;s likely. And although my stance is that adding a D is more important then a 2C, I would caveat that by saying player fit is probably even more important.

 

[Bacchus1]

It's certainly possible and I think everyone is 100% in agreement that we would do both. But for the sake of discussion and frankly realism I'm not sure it;s likely. And although my stance is that adding a D is more important then a 2C, I would caveat that by saying player fit is probably even more important.

A really good 2-way center with a scoring touch could transform our team if he meshes well with 2 of our wingers. A good offense is the best defense. Also, still hoping that Reinbacher makes a full recovery and joins our team out of camp.

 

[Bacchus1]

It looks like Kirby will be ready for the start of next season. The bic concern will be if he has enough time to train during the summer. The good thing is that he had surgery in late Feb, which means that he has probably 6 months until training camp. But, after 2 years of injury, it seems that he might have issues finding the time to train properly.

Also wondering if he might want to play at a lighter weight seeing as he seems to have week knees. Even losing 10-15lbs could help.

 

[Naslundforever]

What is the time line for his return? Is he likely to be ready for the playoffs if we get there? Or is he done for the year?

Games seem way too important to play the guy again this year come back or not; no way he could keep up playoff pace and intensity.

He never had time to come back as an efficient player over like half a season imagine a few weeks or days.

I can’t imagine anything but a year of rehab and trying to get back to his shape from a few years ago for that one stretch. His game shape from before his latest injury was no-where close to enough for starters, it’s not a benchmark.

 

[Victoire HuGo]

If a guy like Anderson can be good enough to play on the PK, I'm not concerned that Dach's defensive game will be good enough as a winger.

 

[Naslundforever]

If a guy like Anderson can be good enough to play on the PK, I'm not concerned that Dach's defensive game will be good enough as a winger.

Anderson rocking it on the pk, just like 5v5 and all his shifts. I see no comparables in engagement or output?

I don’t actually get the Dach hope lol.. Are we worried Dach runs out of money and will need a job, or we really think habs can’t/won’t easily find better in the org, the market or a minor trade?

My hope is for totally him to get better but not for the habs to have him back, it’s based in empathy not fandom. I both feel for him and dread his return..

 

[Victoire HuGo]

Anderson rocking it on the pk, just like 5v5 and all his shifts. I see no comparables in engagement or output?

I don’t actually get the Dach hope lol.. Are we worried Dach runs out of money and will need a job, or we really think habs can’t/won’t easily find better in the org, the market or a minor trade?

My hope is for totally him to get better but not for the habs to have him back, it’s based in empathy not fandom. I both feel for him and dread his return..

Right Anderson had no issue with engagement or output last year

 

[ahmedou]

I miss saying Tabardach. Everytime Dach scored a goal. Or everytime Dach did an assist.

 

[Rapala]

I found that odd too, last time there were many feel good stories about how he was coping well and hanging with the team and attending scouting meetings but this time crickets.

I saw a clip of him celebrting and high fiving Xhekaj after what I think was the Suzuki tying goal.
So he's definitely around the team.