Player Discussion Kirby Dach (Part 3): TabarDach Edition!

[Sorinth]

Maybe for a hopeless team, but for a serious team that's unacceptable.

Chicago won the cup with Michael Handzus as their #2 center who had 8 points in 39 games. Were they not a serious team?

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

Chicago won the cup with Michael Handzus as their #2 center who had 8 points in 39 games. Were they not a serious team?

I’m not above getting a #2 but this idea that we should give up a huge piece to get it is ridiculous.

If Laine can get anywhere near back to form (I think it’s more likely than most), you could stick f***ing Desharnais between him and Demidov. This idea we need a top 6 WHOLLY made up of all stars is silly.

This is why I’d sooner see what Newhook can do with those two. There’s literally no downside to this. You also get a better idea of what Hage can do. Plus if Newhook completely shits the bed you can see what Kapanen and Beck do. Hell maybe even Flojack.

I’d sooner try out the cheaper options first

 

[Sorinth]

I’m not above getting a #2 but this idea that we should give up a huge piece to get it is ridiculous.

If Laine can get anywhere near back to form (I think it’s more likely than most), you could stick f***ing Desharnais between him and Demidov. This idea we need a top 6 WHOLLY made up of all stars is silly.

This is why I’d sooner see what Newhook can do with those two. There’s literally no downside to this. You also get a better idea of what Hage can do. Plus if Newhook completely shits the bed you can see what Kapanen and Beck do. Hell maybe even Flojack.

I’d sooner try out the cheaper options first

I'm perfectly fine overpaying for a stud, but it has to be the right fit, and if we can't get the perfect fit then yeah it's fine to go with what we have. We are 16th for GF/G will be adding Demidov and can probably expect some internal growth from our young guys. The bigger issue is goals against where we are 26th, so going after a D is a bigger priority to a 2C anyways.

 

[Jaaanosik]

I'm perfectly fine overpaying for a stud, but it has to be the right fit, and if we can't get the perfect fit then yeah it's fine to go with what we have. We are 16th for GF/G will be adding Demidov and can probably expect some internal growth from our young guys. The bigger issue is goals against where we are 26th, so going after a D is a bigger priority to a 2C anyways.

The bold part applies to D as well.

 

[Sorinth]

The bold part applies to D as well.

Sure but that doesn't change the fact the D is still a bigger priority then a second line center.

 

[Unclewhalebone]

I'm perfectly fine overpaying for a stud, but it has to be the right fit, and if we can't get the perfect fit then yeah it's fine to go with what we have. We are 16th for GF/G will be adding Demidov and can probably expect some internal growth from our young guys. The bigger issue is goals against where we are 26th, so going after a D is a bigger priority to a 2C anyways.

But the goals against problem is directly a result of having players in the 2C role that don't belong there. Dach had a whopping -29 this year. That is rough no matter how you try to slice it. It is 50% worse than the next guy on that list who is Newhook. Newhook spent most of the the start of the season strapped to Dach and now he is miscast himself in that 2C chair.
I argue that a 2C will do more to improve our goals against (which I agree is our most important need) than most additions on D.
The Habs are -26
Dach -29
Newhook - 20
There is a leak and it is pretty obvious where the hole is.

 

[Sorinth]

But the goals against problem is directly a result of having players in the 2C role that don't belong there. Dach had a whopping -29 this year. That is rough no matter how you try to slice it. It is 50% worse than the next guy on that list who is Newhook. Newhook spent most of the the start of the season strapped to Dach and now he is miscast himself in that 2C chair.
I argue that a 2C will do more to improve our goals against (which I agree is our most important need) than most additions on D.
The Habs are -26
Dach -29
Newhook - 20
There is a leak and it is pretty obvious where the hole is.

Not sure it's that simple, everybody was a big negative at the start of the season, but when the team started doing better unlike others Dach and Newhook weren't getting the +'s to help recover. Not too mention over a third of Dach's negatives come from non-5v5 play.

Like don't get me wrong Dach wasn't good and did cost us a lot of goals, especially early on, and a #2 C can certainly help us cut down GAs simply by helping us spend more time in the offensive zone. But Dach's GA/60 was 3.84, whereas Suzuki's a 3.1. Given Suzuki is a stud defensively it's really not that big of a difference, the +/- comes from Dach's GF/60 which is 1.92 vs Suzuki's 3.83.

So Dach's huge - doesn't come from being particularly bad defensively (He was not good just not terrible) it comes from his anemic offence. So upgrading on him will bring more goals but not really change the goals against all that much unless there's a drastic change in possession play. And that possession play is honestly more likely to be influenced by getting a quality D then a quality C.

 

[Unclewhalebone]

Not sure it's that simple, everybody was a big negative at the start of the season, but when the team started doing better unlike others Dach and Newhook weren't getting the +'s to help recover. Not too mention over a third of Dach's negatives come from non-5v5 play.

Like don't get me wrong Dach wasn't good and did cost us a lot of goals, especially early on, and a #2 C can certainly help us cut down GAs simply by helping us spend more time in the offensive zone. But Dach's GA/60 was 3.84, whereas Suzuki's a 3.1. Given Suzuki is a stud defensively it's really not that big of a difference, the +/- comes from Dach's GF/60 which is 1.92 vs Suzuki's 3.83.

So Dach's huge - doesn't come from being particularly bad defensively (He was not good just not terrible) it comes from his anemic offence. So upgrading on him will bring more goals but not really change the goals against all that much unless there's a drastic change in possession play. And that possession play is honestly more likely to be influenced by getting a quality D then a quality C.

I mean the devil is in the details though. You can call Suzuki a stud defensively or an star offensively or whatever you want, but the reality is, on aggregate, Suzuki is beating his competition by 0.7! goals per game. (Your numbers.) He is beating the first liners that he plays against every night. He is in the right chair and the net result is a positive for the team.

Dach on the other hand was playing in the 2C role (mostly) and this is clearly the wrong chair because his opposition is scoring twice as fast as "he" is. He is losing so fast that it takes Suzuki almost 3 hours of hockey to make up for one hour of Dach.

The real kicker though, is that the small difference in numbers that you point out isn't that small. I'm using the numbers you provided so I'll assume they are correct.

If Suzuki played the whole game every night against the his usual opposition the Habs would have 73x3.1=226 GA. Good for about middle of the pack.
If Dach played the whole game every night against his usual opposition the Habs would have 73x3.84=280 GA. Good for dead last in the league.

That is a difference of 54 goals over the course of a season!! 54 goals would definitely go a long way towards solving a "goals against problem". And this doesn't even take into account the fact that I would expect 1st liners to naturally have higher GA/60 simply because they are playing the stars from the other team.

The 2C IS THE biggest defensive problem.

I hope Dach gets healthy and can come back and progress, but he was absolutely over his head at 2C this year, and he has to take a big part of the responsibility for the GA problem on the Habs. We need someone who belongs in the chair. Someone who breaks even would be an insane improvement.

 

[Sorinth]

I mean the devil is in the details though. You can call Suzuki a stud defensively or an star offensively or whatever you want, but the reality is, on aggregate, Suzuki is beating his competition by 0.7! goals per game. (Your numbers.) He is beating the first liners that he plays against every night. He is in the right chair and the net result is a positive for the team.

Dach on the other hand was playing in the 2C role (mostly) and this is clearly the wrong chair because his opposition is scoring twice as fast as "he" is. He is losing so fast that it takes Suzuki almost 3 hours of hockey to make up for one hour of Dach.

The real kicker though, is that the small difference in numbers that you point out isn't that small. I'm using the numbers you provided so I'll assume they are correct.

If Suzuki played the whole game every night against the his usual opposition the Habs would have 73x3.1=226 GA. Good for about middle of the pack.
If Dach played the whole game every night against his usual opposition the Habs would have 73x3.84=280 GA. Good for dead last in the league.

That is a difference of 54 goals over the course of a season!! 54 goals would definitely go a long way towards solving a "goals against problem". And this doesn't even take into account the fact that I would expect 1st liners to naturally have higher GA/60 simply because they are playing the stars from the other team.

The 2C IS THE biggest defensive problem.

I hope Dach gets healthy and can come back and progress, but he was absolutely over his head at 2C this year, and he has to take a big part of the responsibility for the GA problem on the Habs. We need someone who belongs in the chair. Someone who breaks even would be an insane improvement.

For reference those numbers were 5 on 5, and taken from Natural Stat Trick

At 15min of 5v5 a game which is kind of what you'd expect from your top-6 players the difference in GAs over a full 82 game season between Suzuki and Dach is 15.17 goals. Given Suzuki is a borderline Selke player being 15 goals off that mark is pretty decent for anybody. The issue with the 2nd line was lack of scoring which is probably addressed by Demidov's arrival.

 

[ExReHabs]

Chicago won the cup with Michael Handzus as their #2 center who had 8 points in 39 games. Were they not a serious team?

What the hell are you talking about? Not only was it a different era of hockey, not only was Handzus a defensive centreman (Dach is not), and not only was that lineup absolutely stacked with talent but you got the stats wrong too.

 

[ExReHabs]

I’m not above getting a #2 but this idea that we should give up a huge piece to get it is ridiculous.

Marc Bergevin style thinking but I guess it depends on what you consider “a huge piece”.

If Laine can get anywhere near back to form (I think it’s more likely than most), you could stick f***ing Desharnais between him and Demidov. This idea we need a top 6 WHOLLY made up of all stars is silly.

Look at the lineups of winning teams. They have serious depth.

I’d sooner try out the cheaper options first

Prices are too high, it isn’t PlayStation, etc

Meanwhile Vegas acquires Eichel and Dallas acquires Rantanen and teams make moves to significantly improve their rosters.

 

[DAChampion]

Marc Bergevin style thinking but I guess it depends on what you consider “a huge piece”.


Look at the lineups of winning teams. They have serious depth.


Prices are too high, it isn’t PlayStation, etc

Meanwhile Vegas acquires Eichel and Dallas acquires Rantanen and teams make moves to significantly improve their rosters.

It largely depends on how the Habs brass view the players ranked 11-20 in this draft year.

 

[ExReHabs]

It largely depends on how the Habs brass view the players ranked 11-20 in this draft year.

You mean, in terms of trading this year’s 1st round pick?

I don’t know what to expect but it should be an interesting summer regardless. A friend of mine is convinced they will trade Matheson+ for a RHD and a 2C is clearly necessary… lots of action to come.

Cozens would’ve been a good acquisition

 

[Unclewhalebone]

For reference those numbers were 5 on 5, and taken from Natural Stat Trick

At 15min of 5v5 a game which is kind of what you'd expect from your top-6 players the difference in GAs over a full 82 game season between Suzuki and Dach is 15.17 goals. Given Suzuki is a borderline Selke player being 15 goals off that mark is pretty decent for anybody. The issue with the 2nd line was lack of scoring which is probably addressed by Demidov's arrival.

I'm not sure why we would revert to the above estimate when the numbers are right where you got them from.
In 57 games, Dach was on ice for 24 GF and 48 against at even strength. That's a 34 goal leak over 82 games. That is a lot. Not to mention the ridiculous 76% GF% he had on the power play. The next closest is 86%.

I went down the stat rabbit hole and had a good look at the page you referenced. Everything I see there points towards Dach, (and to an extent Newhook) being the biggest defensive liabilities.

No other player on the team has anywhere near the poor numbers of Dach except Pezzetta, Condotta, Mailloux, Beck, Roy and Kapanen, and these other guys have something in common...

No single move has the potential to transform the team more than getting a real 2C, and a lot of that will come as a result of better defensive play. I'd guess we might see a difference of well over 20 goals over the course of the season.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I mean the devil is in the details though. You can call Suzuki a stud defensively or an star offensively or whatever you want, but the reality is, on aggregate, Suzuki is beating his competition by 0.7! goals per game. (Your numbers.) He is beating the first liners that he plays against every night. He is in the right chair and the net result is a positive for the team.

Dach on the other hand was playing in the 2C role (mostly) and this is clearly the wrong chair because his opposition is scoring twice as fast as "he" is. He is losing so fast that it takes Suzuki almost 3 hours of hockey to make up for one hour of Dach.

The real kicker though, is that the small difference in numbers that you point out isn't that small. I'm using the numbers you provided so I'll assume they are correct.

If Suzuki played the whole game every night against the his usual opposition the Habs would have 73x3.1=226 GA. Good for about middle of the pack.
If Dach played the whole game every night against his usual opposition the Habs would have 73x3.84=280 GA. Good for dead last in the league.

That is a difference of 54 goals over the course of a season!! 54 goals would definitely go a long way towards solving a "goals against problem". And this doesn't even take into account the fact that I would expect 1st liners to naturally have higher GA/60 simply because they are playing the stars from the other team.

The 2C IS THE biggest defensive problem.

I hope Dach gets healthy and can come back and progress, but he was absolutely over his head at 2C this year, and he has to take a big part of the responsibility for the GA problem on the Habs. We need someone who belongs in the chair. Someone who breaks even would be an insane improvement.

People need to put things in context here. Yes, he was dreadful when he came back but he was coming off a horrible injury and brutal rehab.

Dach was in the right chair. He had the potential to be a 2A 1B type player. He was our 2C for the future and if he'd stayed healthy we'd have been in amazing shape. Big playmaker who wasn't afraid to go to the net. Exactly what we needed. He just couldn't stay healthy.

Now? I think he just hopes he can salvage his career. It's sad man. Seriously, it's just such a waste of talent.

 

[Unclewhalebone]

People need to put things in context here. Yes, he was dreadful when he came back but he was coming off a horrible injury and brutal rehab.

Dach was in the right chair. He had the potential to be a 2A 1B type player. He was our 2C for the future and if he'd stayed healthy we'd have been in amazing shape. Big playmaker who wasn't afraid to go to the net. Exactly what we needed. He just couldn't stay healthy.

Now? I think he just hopes he can salvage his career. It's sad man. Seriously, it's just such a waste of talent.

I agree that he was coming off of an injury and rehab and it IS a damn shame that he got hurt again, because while it may seem contrary to what I wrote above, I still think Dach has the potential to be "something" for us. I hope he can.
I disagree that he was in the right chair though. The proof is in the pudding. He was overmatched at 2C, almost every night. It didn't help that he was strapped to Newhook and Laine for sure, but it was bad, and we had none else to take the role so he got crushed. He should have moved down the lineup while he recovered and slowly worked back his game speed and confidence.
Moving forward though, we absolutely cannot come back next year with a question mark, or Newhook or Dach at 2C. Given what this team has shown this year, (in spite of the huge goal leak on the 2nd line) it would be a serious failure in my estimation. We need the real thing. If Dach, or Newhook or whoever else can elevate their play and compete for that role in the future then all the better for us.

 

[sbhatt]

He can compete for a bottom 6 winger role next season I guess...I would not count on him for anything more than that.

 

[Sorinth]

What the hell are you talking about? Not only was it a different era of hockey, not only was Handzus a defensive centreman (Dach is not), and not only was that lineup absolutely stacked with talent but you got the stats wrong too.


View attachment 1003668

He was traded for at the deadline. His season stats were 2 points in 28 games for SJ and 6 points in 11 games in Chi, for a total of 8 points in 39 games.

 

[Sorinth]

I'm not sure why we would revert to the above estimate when the numbers are right where you got them from.
In 57 games, Dach was on ice for 24 GF and 48 against at even strength. That's a 34 goal leak over 82 games. That is a lot. Not to mention the ridiculous 76% GF% he had on the power play. The next closest is 86%.

I went down the stat rabbit hole and had a good look at the page you referenced. Everything I see there points towards Dach, (and to an extent Newhook) being the biggest defensive liabilities.

No other player on the team has anywhere near the poor numbers of Dach except Pezzetta, Condotta, Mailloux, Beck, Roy and Kapanen, and these other guys have something in common...

No single move has the potential to transform the team more than getting a real 2C, and a lot of that will come as a result of better defensive play. I'd guess we might see a difference of well over 20 goals over the course of the season.

Even strength numbers usually include 6-5 play where Dach had 1 goal for and 7 goals against. When talking about defensive play it's just not relevant to look at situations where the goalie is pulled or when it's 3v3 because it's not representative. It's also why people shouldn't look at Lane Hutson's current +/- of -9 and think oh he has problems defending, a whopping -12 comes from when we've pulled the goalie.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I agree that he was coming off of an injury and rehab and it IS a damn shame that he got hurt again, because while it may seem contrary to what I wrote above, I still think Dach has the potential to be "something" for us. I hope he can.
I disagree that he was in the right chair though. The proof is in the pudding. He was overmatched at 2C, almost every night. It didn't help that he was strapped to Newhook and Laine for sure, but it was bad, and we had none else to take the role so he got crushed. He should have moved down the lineup while he recovered and slowly worked back his game speed and confidence.
Moving forward though, we absolutely cannot come back next year with a question mark, or Newhook or Dach at 2C. Given what this team has shown this year, (in spite of the huge goal leak on the 2nd line) it would be a serious failure in my estimation. We need the real thing. If Dach, or Newhook or whoever else can elevate their play and compete for that role in the future then all the better for us.

He wasn't overmatched when he was healthy. The problem is that he was never healthy enough to last.

He was a solid number two and if he'd stayed healthy he'd have been one of the better 2nd line centers in the league. But now he's missed so much hockey over his development years I don't know what's going to happen with him. His career might already be over. One more big injury and it definitely will be. It sucks.

 

[Unclewhalebone]

Even strength numbers usually include 6-5 play where Dach had 1 goal for and 7 goals against. When talking about defensive play it's just not relevant to look at situations where the goalie is pulled or when it's 3v3 because it's not representative. It's also why people shouldn't look at Lane Hutson's current +/- of -9 and think oh he has problems defending, a whopping -12 comes from when we've pulled the goalie.

You are nitpicking situational hockey for a stat that is really a relative measure. It doesn't take into account goalies or linemates, or dumb penalties taken either. But when you compare teammates and find outliers, there is information there. Dach's stats stand out like a sore thumb on this team, and not for a good reason.

Lane Hutson earned that -9 (Natural Stat Trick has -5 at "Even Strength") at the start of the year. He was a raw rookie and was taking chances he shouldn't have, and got burned. Over the course of the season he has improved that part of his game tremendously and it has helped the team turn things around. He has slowly worked that back so that in the second half of the year he is playing in the "plus" at even strength or 5v5 or whatever stat you fancy.

I think a bad start affected Dach too, but he never turned it back around, and then lost his chance because of injury.

 

[ExReHabs]

He was traded for at the deadline. His season stats were 2 points in 28 games for SJ and 6 points in 11 games in Chi, for a total of 8 points in 39 games.

6 in 11 and he was acquired as a veteran defensive centreman on a team stacked to the gills with two way players. Disingenuous to claim he was their 2C in a discussion about Kirby Dach.

 

[Unclewhalebone]

He wasn't overmatched when he was healthy. The problem is that he was never healthy enough to last.

He was a solid number two and if he'd stayed healthy he'd have been one of the better 2nd line centers in the league. But now he's missed so much hockey over his development years I don't know what's going to happen with him. His career might already be over. One more big injury and it definitely will be. It sucks.

Man, I get it. I remember 2 years ago being so excited by the way he looked at camp. As you say, big guy with skills and speed. I was excited about the possibilities, but I just can't think of when he was a solid number 2. At what point was it that he actually WAS a solid number 2C. Not this year. Not the year before that he missed. His first year here? He definitely had better +- numbers, but I recall him struggling on and off, and they kept moving him to the wing with Suzuki to get him jump started... I dunno if I really recall 2C Dach actually existing... except for potential. Several hot streaks doesn't a 2C make.

 

[Sorinth]

You are nitpicking situational hockey for a stat that is really a relative measure. It doesn't take into account goalies or linemates, or dumb penalties taken either. But when you compare teammates and find outliers, there is information there. Dach's stats stand out like a sore thumb on this team, and not for a good reason.

Lane Hutson earned that -9 (Natural Stat Trick has -5 at "Even Strength") at the start of the year. He was a raw rookie and was taking chances he shouldn't have, and got burned. Over the course of the season he has improved that part of his game tremendously and it has helped the team turn things around. He has slowly worked that back so that in the second half of the year he is playing in the "plus" at even strength or 5v5 or whatever stat you fancy.

I think a bad start affected Dach too, but he never turned it back around, and then lost his chance because of injury.

When a goalie is pulled it still counts as Even Strength play. He's a -9 on the season because there's also 4 GA when on the PP. His -5 at "Even Strength" includes a -12 because we pulled the goalie, that -12 isn't because he's a rookie who was taking chances he shouldn't have and got burned, it's because when you pull the goalie more often then not you get scored against. If you can't see that context like that matters then really there's no point in continuing to even talk about Dach.

 

[Sorinth]

6 in 11 and he was acquired as a veteran defensive centreman on a team stacked to the gills with two way players. Disingenuous to claim he was their 2C in a discussion about Kirby Dach.

Why is it disingenuous to say he was used as their 2C when that's the position he played for them? Even the 6 in 11 he had with them is a 45 point pace less then the pace you first said was completely unacceptable for a 2C.

You talk about them being stacked as if that makes it a bad comparison when it's actually the entire point. When a team is stacked in some areas it compensates for a weaknesses in another area. Chicago could get away with a weak 2C because they had strengths at wing, Pittsburgh's cups had terrible wingers but it was compensated by being stacked at C.