Kings Article: Kings Don’t Need Speed, They Need Better Players

[damacles1156]

I posted shooting %s in the other thread.

Basically all our top forwards are shooting less than half their normal career %s.

Even if they all had a career worst year by a couple of percent, we'd still expect them to rubberband hard pretty soon.

Puck was getting slung around quickly last night and made us look uber fast, funny what getting players with movement and IQ in the lineup can do!

Which is fine,

The top six so far, has been brutal outside of Kopitar's (200ft) play and Pearson.

 

[lumbergh]

I posted shooting %s in the other thread.

Basically all our top forwards are shooting less than half their normal career %s.

Even if they all had a career worst year by a couple of percent, we'd still expect them to rubberband hard pretty soon.

This is indicative of a general misunderstanding of probability. If you flipped a coin 10 times and came up 10 heads, what's the chance the next flip will end up tails?

If a player has a lower shooting percentage this year compared to previous years, it doesn't mean that he's due to break out. If the team has a lower shooting percentage this year, it also doesn't mean it's gonna "rubberband".

At some point the team has to look at its tactics and strategies and make adjustments. I'm not sure the coaching staff is willing to do this.

There's also the possibility that the Kings have a low shooting percentage because they take a lot of easy-to-stop shots. Watching this team for the past few years, I would say that this is the case.

 

[damacles1156]

I can't imagine, there is a coaching staff in hockey that coaches, (don't go to scoring areas, shoot from the perimeter).

Sutter just said it like three days ago,

Sutter on scoring goals: "We need to attack the net more, get more bodies to scoring areas".

The thing is, coaches can't make players, pay the price to score, or go to hard area's of the ice (where goals are scored). Also Kopitar/Gabo are really the only players, that have a wrist shot that is deadly, and can afford to be (outside) players.

The top six should rebound at some point, unless all of them are experiencing a Dustin Brown like decay of their game. Highly unlikely.

 

[Trolfoli]

I can't imagine, there is a coaching staff in hockey that coaches, (don't go to scoring areas, shoot from the perimeter).

Sutter just said it like three days ago,

Sutter on scoring goals: "We need to attack the net more, get more bodies to scoring areas".

The thing is, coaches can't make players, pay the price to score, or go to hard area's of the ice (where goals are scored). Also Kopitar/Gabo are really the only players, that have a wrist shot that is deadly, and can afford to be (outside) players.

The top six should rebound at some point, unless all of them are experiencing a Dustin Brown like decay of their game. Highly unlikely.

If Sutter knew anything about generating offense at the NHL level his teams would be over the 50% mark on offense.

Edit: I'm sorry, but the Kings are sitting 2nd from last in GF/Game at 2. Vancouver is dead last at 1.45 goals/game.

Sutter's fix is to tell guys go to the scoring areas? This is such a joke. Maybe Sutter should be asking why guys like Kopitar, Toffoli, Carter are having trouble finding the net. It isn't "Going to scoring areas."

 

[damacles1156]

If Sutter knew anything about generating offense at the NHL level his teams would be over the 50% mark on offense.

Edit: I'm sorry, but the Kings are sitting 2nd from last in GF/Game at 2. Vancouver is dead last at 1.45 goals/game.

Sutter's fix is to tell guys go to the scoring areas? This is such a joke. Maybe Sutter should be asking why guys like Kopitar, Toffoli, Carter are having trouble finding the net. It isn't "Going to scoring areas."

You don't get to 600 wins in the NHL, with knowing nothing about the offensive side of the puck in hockey, at the NHL league. There is only 14 coaches, in the entire history of the NHL to reach 600 wins.

Don't be that naive, seriously.

 

[damacles1156]

If you want to argue that Sutter's methods/coaching style, provides average to below average offensive numbers, there is data to support that.

But trying to say that he knows nothing about it; Don't try and paint that picture, cause it's not true.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

This is indicative of a general misunderstanding of probability. If you flipped a coin 10 times and came up 10 heads, what's the chance the next flip will end up tails?

If a player has a lower shooting percentage this year compared to previous years, it doesn't mean that he's due to break out. If the team has a lower shooting percentage this year, it also doesn't mean it's gonna "rubberband".

At some point the team has to look at its tactics and strategies and make adjustments. I'm not sure the coaching staff is willing to do this.

There's also the possibility that the Kings have a low shooting percentage because they take a lot of easy-to-stop shots. Watching this team for the past few years, I would say that this is the case.

Let me put it this way--do YOU think Kopitar is going to finish the year a 7% shooter? He was twice that last year. I suppose he COULD--which is where your probability lecture is coming from--but we're talking sports here. I don't think his performance in this system has fallen off so much that he's going to be several percentage points below his career average. I think that even more so given that SEVERAL of our top guys are in the same boat, and though its POSSIBLE that every single one of them has their worst career year by several percent, I'm going to bet that it's not PROBABLE given all the other indicators.

And I fully agree with you on the last point--but even compared to themselves, their shooting percentage is in the abyss. See my Buffalo example from the other thread to see HOW horrible it is.

Call me crazy. I'm pretty confident in my 'prediction' which I don't think is outlandish or even nearly as controversial as some are making it seem.

 

[damacles1156]

Let me put it this way--do YOU think Kopitar is going to finish the year a 7% shooter? He was twice that last year. I suppose he COULD--which is where your probability lecture is coming from--but we're talking sports here. I don't think his performance in this system has fallen off so much that he's going to be several percentage points below his career average. I think that even more so given that SEVERAL of our top guys are in the same boat, and though its POSSIBLE that every single one of them has their worst career year by several percent, I'm going to bet that it's not PROBABLE given all the other indicators.

And I fully agree with you on the last point--but even compared to themselves, their shooting percentage is in the abyss. See my Buffalo example from the other thread to see HOW horrible it is.

Call me crazy. I'm pretty confident in my 'prediction' which I don't think is outlandish or even nearly as controversial as some are making it seem.

I would chalk it up too the flow of a season, there are going to be peaks and valley's.

It happens every year pretty much.

 

[kings11]

I would chalk it up too the flow of a season, there are going to be peaks and valley's.

It happens every year pretty much.

Granted its a small sample size but our D is looking good ( DD and Amart will get better), both Forbort and Gravel are making those smart, quick outlet passes that spring our forwards and as we saw versus the Pens it was all action!!! I would be shocked if our offensive doesn't spike up within the next few games...

 

[Trolfoli]

You don't get to 600 wins in the NHL, with knowing nothing about the offensive side of the puck in hockey, at the NHL league. There is only 14 coaches, in the entire history of the NHL to reach 600 wins.

Don't be that naive, seriously.

The only reason he isn't dead last in production this year is Benning bailing him out and taking all the heat.

I'm just not going to take Sutter telling guys to go to scoring areas when he's stapled King to Kopitar. Sutter can and should be called out on his *********.

Don't be so naive that you believe the reason they're not scoring is "not going to the scoring areas." That is a cop out.

 

[damacles1156]

The only reason he isn't dead last in production this year is Benning bailing him out and taking all the heat.

I'm just not going to take Sutter telling guys to go to scoring areas when he's stapled King to Kopitar. Sutter can and should be called out on his *********.

Don't be so naive that you believe the reason they're not scoring is "not going to the scoring areas." That is a cop out.

Do you watch the games ?

Cause they don't go to scoring areas as often as they should to score goals.

It causes them to, you guessed it, not score goals. We shall agree to disagree.

 

[damacles1156]

Granted its a small sample size but our D is looking good ( DD and Amart will get better), both Forbort and Gravel are making those smart, quick outlet passes that spring our forwards and as we saw versus the Pens it was all action!!! I would be shocked if our offensive doesn't spike up within the next few games...

The D has looked much better with Forbort/Gilbert playing that bottom pairing.

Hopefully Gravel can get some more games, as well.

 

[damacles1156]

This is indicative of a general misunderstanding of probability. If you flipped a coin 10 times and came up 10 heads, what's the chance the next flip will end up tails?

If a player has a lower shooting percentage this year compared to previous years, it doesn't mean that he's due to break out. If the team has a lower shooting percentage this year, it also doesn't mean it's gonna "rubberband".

At some point the team has to look at its tactics and strategies and make adjustments. I'm not sure the coaching staff is willing to do this.

There's also the possibility that the Kings have a low shooting percentage because they take a lot of easy-to-stop shots. Watching this team for the past few years, I would say that this is the case.

I am for waiving Purcell/Seto and dropping King to 4th line duty, promote someone like Brodzinski/Mersch.

I don't think Mersch can skate with Kopitar/Carter, but Mersch can at least be on the PP for net presence. Get his feet under him on the bottom six.

 

[Trolfoli]

Do you watch the games ?

Cause they don't go to scoring areas as often as they should to score goals.

It causes them to, you guessed it, not score goals. We shall agree to disagree.

Do you watch the games? Going to the scoring areas is the only issue? I'd say King being in the top 6 full time this year is a pretty big reason scoring is down. To go further down that line of thinking, we've all seen what happens when you play a line that all 3 guys can pass and shoot. 70-77-73. Kings (Sutter) has an anchor on every line. It is just Sutter being Sutter when he says, "go to the scoring areas." when he doesn't want to admit his line combos are ****.

But hey... Better draft pick!

 

[HookKing]

If Sutter knew anything about generating offense at the NHL level his teams would be over the 50% mark on offense.

Edit: I'm sorry, but the Kings are sitting 2nd from last in GF/Game at 2. Vancouver is dead last at 1.45 goals/game.

Sutter's fix is to tell guys go to the scoring areas? This is such a joke. Maybe Sutter should be asking why guys like Kopitar, Toffoli, Carter are having trouble finding the net. It isn't "Going to scoring areas."

If I'm not mistaken, didn't the Kings win a cup with the second worst offense in the league?

 

[King'sPawn]

This is indicative of a general misunderstanding of probability. If you flipped a coin 10 times and came up 10 heads, what's the chance the next flip will end up tails?

If a player has a lower shooting percentage this year compared to previous years, it doesn't mean that he's due to break out. If the team has a lower shooting percentage this year, it also doesn't mean it's gonna "rubberband".

At some point the team has to look at its tactics and strategies and make adjustments. I'm not sure the coaching staff is willing to do this.

There's also the possibility that the Kings have a low shooting percentage because they take a lot of easy-to-stop shots. Watching this team for the past few years, I would say that this is the case.

But you aren't showing a strong understanding of statistics and probability, either. While every coin flip is independent of one another, if you flip a coin 1000 times, there is an expected regression to the mean. It doesn't mean it will exactly hit 50/50, but the expected outcome is more realistic than thinking it will be 90/10 just because the first 9 flips are the same result.

The Kings can certainly do more to increase their chance to score, but they are shooting an uncharacteristically low shooting %.

 

[lumbergh]

Let me put it this way--do YOU think Kopitar is going to finish the year a 7% shooter? He was twice that last year. I suppose he COULD--which is where your probability lecture is coming from--but we're talking sports here. I don't think his performance in this system has fallen off so much that he's going to be several percentage points below his career average. I think that even more so given that SEVERAL of our top guys are in the same boat, and though its POSSIBLE that every single one of them has their worst career year by several percent, I'm going to bet that it's not PROBABLE given all the other indicators.

And I fully agree with you on the last point--but even compared to themselves, their shooting percentage is in the abyss. See my Buffalo example from the other thread to see HOW horrible it is.

Call me crazy. I'm pretty confident in my 'prediction' which I don't think is outlandish or even nearly as controversial as some are making it seem.

No I don't think Kopitar is going to finish as a 7% shooter. I also don't think most fans understand the difference between statistics and probability. Shooting percentage is not a product of random chance. It's not like Kopitar is automatically supposed to score on one out of every ten shots. Statistics in sports is a numerical measure of what has already happened. It is predictive only for long term trends. A bad shooting percentage over 12 games is not going to result in a great shooting percentage over the next 12 games.

A poor shooting percentage, especially one that last for six years, is not indicative of bad luck. It's indicative of a systemwide lack of skill, inability to penetrate opposing defenses, inability to shoot accurately, and/or a preference for bad angle or point shots.

The way that poor shooting percentages get corrected is through making adjustments to your attack or adjustments to your personnel. The removal of a giant boat anchor named Dwight King would certainly help Kopitar to put up more points, but at some point the coaches and management are going to have to change their approach away from shooting from the point at every possession.

By the way, I'm not worried about Kopitar. Every year fans on this board flip out over some supposed slump that Kopitar goes through. Yet at the end of the year, Kopitar is good for 65-75 points. Like clockwork. Mr. Consistency.