Post-Game Talk: Kings Charge Jets - 4-1

[jepjepjoo]

Your point?

That goalies do come into their own in their late 20's... I thought it was obvious.

 

[Gm0ney]

Is it? There are only 3 goalies in the league age 23 or under and all of them are backups.

Goalies who have started in more than 15 games:

25 yo or younger: 3 (Gibson, Hellebuyck,Vasilevskiy)
26 yo or older: 28 (19 of them are 30+ yo)

Total games started:

25 yo or younger: 161
26 yo or older: 893

I guess it depends on how you define goalies "coming into their own". Is it their ability, as measured by SV% - which appears to decline with advancing age? Or is it the age when they begin to get more starts?

By the time you get into the mid- to late-20s, you've weeded out a lot of subpar goalies, so the older ones should be better as compared to the younger goalies as a group. Maybe this is being confused for "coming into their own". The study I linked to tried to account for that survivorship bias by comparing goalies to themselves at every age vs. league average for that year. The sample size is small due to the selection criteria and just the relatively small number of goalies compared to skaters, but the trend looks similar to what was seen in the larger skater sample groups - and why should goalies buck the aging curve trend? It seems like the unnatural stresses of playing butterfly would be hard on the joints, tendons and ligaments, and reaction times peak around age 24. (Here's a neat reaction time test - it tries to guess your age from your reaction time: Do you have the reflexes of an 18 year old?).

 

[BigZ65]

I don't think you know what earnestly means, or, you're confused by what I'm saying. I said he's the hot hand. This means he's playing well, above his average, etc. The rest of your post is built on this false premise it seems, and I feel it needs to be clarified.

Don’t use that logic at Club Regent. The “hot hand” doesn’t really exist, speaking of false premises. I’m guessing you mean Broissoit looks to be playing with confidence.

 

[Jets 31]

Just beat San Jose and that Kane goof and we will all have a Merry Christmas .

 

[Derfel]

Just beat San Jose and that Kane goof and we will all have a Merry Christmas .

This a thousand times over!

 

[Derfel]

The writing was on the wall with Enstrom leaving

Wait - was that really a "downgrade"?

 

[Ducky10]

That goalies do come into their own in their late 20's... I thought it was obvious.

How was that obvious?

 

[robertocarlos]

Jets D is solid with Kuli and Myers playing well. Stabby Stabby is under some control with Buff and the best pair in the league just keep getting better.

 

[jepjepjoo]

I guess it depends on how you define goalies "coming into their own". Is it their ability, as measured by SV% - which appears to decline with advancing age? Or is it the age when they begin to get more starts?

By the time you get into the mid- to late-20s, you've weeded out a lot of subpar goalies, so the older ones should be better as compared to the younger goalies as a group. Maybe this is being confused for "coming into their own". The study I linked to tried to account for that survivorship bias by comparing goalies to themselves at every age vs. league average for that year. The sample size is small due to the selection criteria and just the relatively small number of goalies compared to skaters, but the trend looks similar to what was seen in the larger skater sample groups - and why should goalies buck the aging curve trend? It seems like the unnatural stresses of playing butterfly would be hard on the joints, tendons and ligaments, and reaction times peak around age 24. (Here's a neat reaction time test - it tries to guess your age from your reaction time: Do you have the reflexes of an 18 year old?).

top 20 Svs% this season 26 or older and what age they started 50+ games(i.e #1 goalie)

Halak, 25
Koskinen, never
Rinne, 27
Rittich, never
Campbell, never
Andersen, 25
DeSmith, never
Bishop, 27
Howard, 25
Miller, 26
McBackup, never
Greiss, 31
Hutton, never
Lehner,25
Rask, 26
Lundqvist,24
Varlamov, 23
Elliot, 25
Dubnyk, 28
Khudobin, never

 

[Maukkis]

Wait - was that really a "downgrade"?

Was that really a serious question?

He was by far our best defenseman in his own end.

 

[jepjepjoo]

How was that obvious?

How would you like me to dumb it down for you? I'm not sure what you're not understanding... did the follow up post help?

 

[Ducky10]

Wait - was that really a "downgrade"?

Yes, by quite a margin.

 

[Ducky10]

The immense downgrade at D + change in goalie equipment = this.

Why are people still surprised? The writing was on the wall with Enstrom leaving, and now we have a rather large sample size of goalies' stats decreasing league wide. Expecting a .920 again would be wishful thinking.

Yep.

Aside from him probably being the best option so far.

Aside from him maybe playing a bit better than he did last season.

The fact remains a guy who was our 7th D man last year is now logging top 4 minutes against top 6 talent.

We shoukd not be surprised and some aren't.

 

[White Out 902]

The immense downgrade at D + change in goalie equipment = this.

Why are people still surprised? The writing was on the wall with Enstrom leaving, and now we have a rather large sample size of goalies' stats decreasing league wide. Expecting a .920 again would be wishful thinking.

Filtering for goaltenders with less than 10 starts he's 27th. Not good enough.

 

[Ducky10]

How would you like me to dumb it down for you? I'm not sure what you're not understanding... did the follow up post help?

None of that shows goalies peak or improve in performance past the age of 26. Sorry, it's far too incomplete to come to your conclusion.

 

[Ducky10]

Filtering for goaltenders with less than 10 starts he's 27th. Not good enough.

If those goalies had more than 10 starts, he'd likely be higher.

 

[Maukkis]

Filtering for goaltenders with less than 10 starts he's 27th. Not good enough.

Probably. Also, assuming you meant 'more than 10'.

It is statistically fair to call out Hellebuyck for his performance. It is pathetic and lazy to put all of the blame on him.

 

[jefferoni]

I'll just drop these here since there's no Pre-GT for tomorrow's game (and it's kinda late to create one now)...

 

[AlphaLackey]

Filtering for goaltenders with less than 10 starts he's 27th.

Out of 55, yes. Not out of 31. So wow, what a surprising realization that a goaltender who has put up a ~55th percentile performance is very close to the middle of the pack.

Filtering for goaltenders with 15 starts he's 20th out of 37
Filtering for goaltenders with 18 starts he's 15th out of 28
Filtering for goaltenders with 20 starts he's 13th out of 23

How very surprising.

Not good enough.

What is good enough? Would being at .915 be acceptable? That's a difference of 5.57 goals against, a whopping one goal every five starts that has you believing that Hellebuyck is worse than Brossoit.

What percentile do you expect Hellebuyck to be before you stop making claims of his "obvious weak play" on a sample size of one shot?

 

[Jet]

It's hard to reconcile yours, and others', posts from various GDTs when Hellebuyck gives up a goal, then suggesting he gets one or two fewer starts. That's where the "panic" part of it came in. Not to mention the constant mention of Brossoit's SV% this year like he's this unmined gem that's stubbornly being held back.



If he's sub-.910 in February, sure. Goaltending can get hot and cold throughout the year. Look at Fleury in the WCF last year compared to the Cup finals. Like a different goalie altogether.

Hellebuyck is at about league average this year so far, and the team is first in the West. I'm optimistic that he will be fine.

I've never suggested less starts. I know Brossoit's stats are pretty lucky, being a smaller sample size.

Not sure where you are getting Helle being league average. He's .908 which is 32nd in the league and quite Pavelecian.

PS for those suggesting that the equipment is to blame - please see the other 2 Vezina finalists.

PSS for those saying that Enstrom out Chia in is the reason, come on. First of all, Enstrom played barely half the games last year, and Trouba missed 30.

PSSS When you look at more than stats but actually the games and Helle's positioning, feet, positioning, shot preparedness, calmness, and rebound control, I think you will see a difference last year from this.

The only thing I think that is hurting Helle this year (more than his own play) is the failure of our forwards to get the puck out 5 feet from our blue line

 

[AlphaLackey]

I've never suggested less starts. I know Brossoit's stats are pretty lucky, being a smaller sample size.

Not sure where you are getting Helle being league average. He's .908 which is 32nd in the league and quite Pavelecian.

League average as of today is .907. That 32nd place is 32nd out of 80. When you apply filters for GP, Hellebuyck goes lower but is right in the middle of the pack.

Hellebuyck currently has stopped 722 / 795 shots, with a league average of .907 that puts him at the 54.5th percentile. So, his placing overall is almost exactly where you'd expect.

Pavelec stopped 10,425 / 11,494 shots, with a weighted league average of .913 over his career, that puts him at the 1st percentile (1.1). His placing in our hearts is also exactly where you'd expect

So yeah, "Pavelecian" remains a significant overstatement for Hellebuyck's performance. "Mildly above average with a handful of noticeable brain farts", sure. Season's still young

 

[Jet]

League average as of today is .907. That 32nd place is 32nd out of 80. When you apply filters for GP, Hellebuyck goes lower but is right in the middle of the pack.

Hellebuyck currently has stopped 722 / 795 shots, with a league average of .907 that puts him at the 54.5th percentile. So, his placing overall is almost exactly where you'd expect.

Pavelec stopped 10,425 / 11,494 shots, with a weighted league average of .913 over his career, that puts him at the 1st percentile (1.1). His placing in our hearts is also exactly where you'd expect

So yeah, "Pavelecian" remains a significant overstatement for Hellebuyck's performance. "Mildly above average with a handful of noticeable brain farts", sure. Season's still young

Where does he place in terms of starters?

 

[pucka lucka]

I guess it depends on how you define goalies "coming into their own". Is it their ability, as measured by SV% - which appears to decline with advancing age? Or is it the age when they begin to get more starts?

By the time you get into the mid- to late-20s, you've weeded out a lot of subpar goalies, so the older ones should be better as compared to the younger goalies as a group. Maybe this is being confused for "coming into their own". The study I linked to tried to account for that survivorship bias by comparing goalies to themselves at every age vs. league average for that year. The sample size is small due to the selection criteria and just the relatively small number of goalies compared to skaters, but the trend looks similar to what was seen in the larger skater sample groups - and why should goalies buck the aging curve trend? It seems like the unnatural stresses of playing butterfly would be hard on the joints, tendons and ligaments, and reaction times peak around age 24. (Here's a neat reaction time test - it tries to guess your age from your reaction time: Do you have the reflexes of an 18 year old?).

I have the reaction time of an 18 or better. That test questions if I am human. I question the test Maybe I should be an NHL goalie?

 

[Lomac]

Hope Copp comes back soon, so AHLemieux can go back to where he belongs.

 

[Mud Turtle]

League average as of today is .907. That 32nd place is 32nd out of 80. When you apply filters for GP, Hellebuyck goes lower but is right in the middle of the pack.

Hellebuyck currently has stopped 722 / 795 shots, with a league average of .907 that puts him at the 54.5th percentile. So, his placing overall is almost exactly where you'd expect.

Pavelec stopped 10,425 / 11,494 shots, with a weighted league average of .913 over his career, that puts him at the 1st percentile (1.1). His placing in our hearts is also exactly where you'd expect

So yeah, "Pavelecian" remains a significant overstatement for Hellebuyck's performance. "Mildly above average with a handful of noticeable brain farts", sure. Season's still young

I knew it was bad and was below replacement value but I didn’t know it was that bad.
Wow.
So how does an organization keep a guy like that for so many years?
People often refer to “them” as “smarter than us” but sometimes you just have to wonder.