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Key trends noticed during the 7 game win streak

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JMan74

Registered User
Jun 27, 2019
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1. Shesty playing at an all world level again
2. More widely distributed scoring throughout the lines/entire team
3. Panarin shooting a bit more and perhaps Gallant finally getting him in spots where he likes to shoot on the rush
4. The biggest bugaboo of this team... Even Strength scoring looking better
5. Opponents with a higher percentage of lower quality chances
6. This is an interesting one Ive observed. More shots designed to come from 'straight on'. Im noticing both in ES and the PP we are setting up plays where we unleash a quality shot on goal straight on and sometimes from fairly deep. I dont remember seeing this this much last year.
7. Related to #6 less dependance on just constantly setting up Zibinajad from the left circle with his wicked 1 timer on the PP most specifically.
8. More players involved in trying to redirect/deflect pucks on net instead of only Kreider. In fact maybe we have swung this too far the other way because Kreider hasnt done this anywhere near as much as last year and he is ridiculously good at it.
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JMan74 said:
1. Shesty playing at an all world level again
2. More widely distributed scoring throughout the lines/entire team
3. Panarin shooting a bit more and perhaps Gallant finally getting him in spots where he likes to shoot on the rush
4. The biggest bugaboo of this team... Even Strength scoring looking better
5. Opponents with a higher percentage of lower quality chances
6. This is an interesting one Ive observed. More shots designed to come from 'straight on'. Im noticing both in ES and the PP we are setting up plays where we unleash a quality shot on goal straight on and sometimes from fairly deep. I dont remember seeing this this much last year.
7. Related to #6 less dependance on just constantly setting up Zibinajad from the left circle with his wicked 1 timer on the PP most specifically.
8. More players involved in trying to redirect/deflect pucks on net instead of only Kreider. In fact maybe we have swung this too far the other way because Kreider hasnt done this anywhere near as much as last year and he is ridiculously good at it.
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Panarin also playing well off of the puck
 
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RangerBoy said:
The Rangers are back to being out chanced and being on the wrong end of the hockey metrics numbers. Scoring chances and puck possession. Igor plays better when he sees more action. The Rangers underlining numbers stink.
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I would bet anything I enjoy the games (win or lose) more than you do. I am NOT against anylatics, but you can't spell that word without the word ANAL. Just saying. Haha, that was fumny and genuinely MINE (didnt get that from anywhere)
 
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huerter said:
it's a royal road, cashing in, and puck luck sport. it aint complicated
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We were so unlucky in this rrgard, that even if we were 50/50 we would have a few more wins, and it seems now that it is probably about 50/50 we have been winning, along with OP's good thoughts.
 
With Chytil out some line changes may be coming but I like Zibs with Bread. Also like CK with Trocheck. I would not automatically put Zibs back with CK.
 
I think everyone collectively woke up instead of watching themselves play/thinking too much during the slump. Hockey is funny like that. Igor has restored order and pucks are going into the net.

I also think its no coincidence that Miller sprung back into form right at the start of the streak. Hes a quiet driver of this team
 
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I see 3 reasons why the Rangers have won 7 in a row:

1) Shesterkin returning to form, as OP noted
2) Special Teams: 50% PP (6 GF), 89% PK (1 GA)
3) Shot %: 16.6 (Season average prior to streak was criminally low: 8.7)

5v5 numbers have been mostly bad.

This team is so incredibly hard to predict. Early in the season, they were playing very well 5v5, but the low S%, some bad luck, and some bad goaltending all contributed to a lack of wins. Now they are stinking at 5v5, but getting high end goaltending and converting their chances at a high (unsustainable) rate, which is basically last season's story.

Let's hope they can combine the two "seasons within a season", where they are a well-oiled machine 5v5, converting their chances at even just a league average rate, and Shesterkin stays in form.
 
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RangerBoy said:
The Rangers are back to being out chanced and being on the wrong end of the hockey metrics numbers. Scoring chances and puck possession. Igor plays better when he sees more action. The Rangers underlining numbers stink.
Click to expand...
Some of that has to do with the public xG models being absolutely terrible. Just for example, on Moneypuck, both of Kakko's one timer goals recently against NJD and CHI had measured xG of 0.08 (8.1% chance of scoring) and 0.051 (5.3% chance of scoring). Both were slot-line one timers that the goalie had barely any chance on and were rated much higher in CSA's data.

Same thing with Panarin's goal against PHI off Goodrow's pass from the half-wall: 5% chance of scoring. I think their games have been a lot closer than these data portray. I still don't think they're as good as they were to start the year, but they've definitely improved from how shitty they were in November. The biggest thing for them is Igor back to being Igor.
 
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This is part of the regression people expected. They couldn't keep shooting the way they were. Too much talent on the roster to keep getting stonewalled by goalies. Same for Igor + Halak. You knew they would have better games. Halak was a sieve, and Igor was average for his standards.

Same goes for the possession aspects, but I do think that it will trend back to where the team is much more consistently with the puck. The Kreider-Trocheck-Vesey line was brutal the first few games, but has gotten better with each game. The 4th line was rough before Kravtsov got back in there, he adds skill to that line.

The other thing to take into account is for when Harpur is out there, same for Hajek. Neither is suiting up when this matters most. Either Jones gets the job or someone outside the organization does. At least that is how I'm looking at this longer term. It's resulting in wins at the moment, but come March, neither of them are on the ice for this team.
 
Mac n Gs said:
Some of that has to do with the public xG models being absolutely terrible. Just for example, on Moneypuck, both of Kakko's one timer goals recently against NJD and CHI had measured xG of 0.08 (8.1% chance of scoring) and 0.051 (5.3% chance of scoring). Both were slot-line one timers that the goalie had barely any chance on and were rated much higher in CSA's data.

Same thing with Panarin's goal against PHI off Goodrow's pass from the half-wall: 5% chance of scoring. I think their games have been a lot closer than these data portray. I still don't think they're as good as they were to start the year, but they've definitely improved from how shitty they were in November. The biggest thing for them is Igor back to being Igor.
Click to expand...

Very interesting perspective. I wish I could see that for the naturalstattrick data. I feel like their numbers feel pretty representative to what I monitor in real time. But that could be bias from me.
 
I feel like most teams have a game plan around blocking the passing lane to Zib much like they would against Ovi. Also jostling Kreider more to keep his stick occupied. Zib and Fox used to feed Kreider those setups a lot more last year because he was just more open. I wonder if they can introduce some behind-the-net formation to essentially give the PP another look they can transition between that forces the PK into a position that the main PP formation can exploit.
 
Also, Trocheck is a better triggerman and a better deflector than Strome was. Overall, I do actually prefer some parts of Strome's game more, but Trocheck's finishing has been a blessing (at the expense of Kreider's production numbers, I'm sure).
 
HatTrick Swayze said:
Very interesting perspective. I wish I could see that for the naturalstattrick data. I feel like their numbers feel pretty representative to what I monitor in real time. But that could be bias from me.
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Similar to moneypuck just looking by eye with Kakko having only 0.07 ixGF all situations against NJ.

I’m not saying that to knock analytics at all. I think they’re extremely useful and hope the public data improve when puck tracking becomes more prevalent. For now, I always skim through and try to see where the discrepancies lie, which is why I don’t agree with the notion that we’ve sucked analytically during this run
 
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