Value of: Kevin Lankinen next contract?

[Another Empty Netter]

With the Demko injury if the Canucks weren't able to land Lankinen they wouldn't be in a playoff position right now. He's been a guy where when you start playing him he wins some games for you but the longer you keep him in the 1A position the less effective becomes, so a goalie the fans love but when you stop and look doesn't have an impressive stat line.

He should get a much better contract this year but I don't think anyone's going to give him 1A money, and I think the best bet is to just stay in Vancouver on a respectable deal around 4 years $5M cap hit, and at most only a very limited NTC. With a more modest cap ceiling that would be too wealthy but with the rise we're getting he's great insurance with Demko, who also only makes $5M through next season so that's not too big an expense on goaltending.

Either way $3-4M for him sounds like old cap ceiling money. With the rising cap he should be more in the $4-5M range. If the Canucks pay in the high range they can just call it a bonus for the service he provided this season.

Signing bonus for work this year + 4-5 million / yr sounds extremely fair.

 

[Kaners PPGs]

I mean Blackwood just signed for $5.25 mil per for 5 years and his numbers are much better than Lankinen's.

Right- I don't think Lankinen is going to get that kind of contract. Lankinen would have to be stellar the rest of the season and be excellent in the playoffs for him to get something over 5.

 

[Kaners PPGs]

With the Demko injury if the Canucks weren't able to land Lankinen they wouldn't be in a playoff position right now. He's been a guy where when you start playing him he wins some games for you but the longer you keep him in the 1A position the less effective becomes, so a goalie the fans love but when you stop and look doesn't have an impressive stat line.

He should get a much better contract this year but I don't think anyone's going to give him 1A money, and I think the best bet is to just stay in Vancouver on a respectable deal around 4 years $5M cap hit, and at most only a very limited NTC. With a more modest cap ceiling that would be too wealthy but with the rise we're getting he's great insurance with Demko, who also only makes $5M through next season so that's not too big an expense on goaltending.

Either way $3-4M for him sounds like old cap ceiling money. With the rising cap he should be more in the $4-5M range. If the Canucks pay in the high range they can just call it a bonus for the service he provided this season.

I suspect if Vancouver offered him 5 M for 4 years he would have already signed it.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

With the Demko injury if the Canucks weren't able to land Lankinen they wouldn't be in a playoff position right now. He's been a guy where when you start playing him he wins some games for you but the longer you keep him in the 1A position the less effective becomes, so a goalie the fans love but when you stop and look doesn't have an impressive stat line.

He should get a much better contract this year but I don't think anyone's going to give him 1A money, and I think the best bet is to just stay in Vancouver on a respectable deal around 4 years $5M cap hit, and at most only a very limited NTC. With a more modest cap ceiling that would be too wealthy but with the rise we're getting he's great insurance with Demko, who also only makes $5M through next season so that's not too big an expense on goaltending.

Either way $3-4M for him sounds like old cap ceiling money. With the rising cap he should be more in the $4-5M range. If the Canucks pay in the high range they can just call it a bonus for the service he provided this season.

That speaks more of how bad Silovs has been rather than how good Lankinen is ngl.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I don't think he ever even necessarily "lost out" on the "goalie carousel" this past summer. It always looked to me like it was a very calculated play. He could've signed on with a sketchy situation or spot where he would continue to get shafted on playing time for more money in the short term...but he and his agent obviously looked at what was offered, and decided to "bet on himself". So he waited until an actually good opportunity opened up. It was inevitable that something would come along. Wouldn't have guessed Vancouver necessarily, but with Demko injury stuff coming back ultra murky...it was a prime opportunity to assume a quasi-starter workload for at least a decent run of games, behind a team that at least looked like...not a total dumpster fire, coming off a solid playoff run last year.


It's looking like a brilliant move at this point. He's probably earned himself a ton more money in the long-run. Somebody is going to offer him a contract at least in that 1b sort of "tandem guy" range, with some term attached.

For sure, he didn't lose out in the end. He is going to win big in the end. But I definitely don't think it was any kind of calculation to wait until training camp to sign. All the spots simply filled up earlier in the summer. It has turned out VERY good that it played out like that. Big win in the end. But I'm sure if he had had a good enough offer on the table in July, ANYWHERE, he would have taken it. Glad he won, he deserves it. From here in Nashville, it helps make Trotz look like an even bigger fool. He turned a position of strength for the Preds into an absolute disaster.

 

[bringbacktheskate604]

That speaks more of how bad Silovs has been rather than how good Lankinen is ngl.

I appreciate everything Lankinen has done and I'd be happy to have him back but I think he's gotten more hype because of how bad the others have been.

Lankinen has some flaws and has shown he has trouble playing 4+ games in a row.

I hope he realizes Vancouver is a really good fit for someone who isn't a 1A vezina type like Demko but definitely better than "just" a backup. Demko has looked really good 3 of his last four starts and is the guy but having Lankinen there to play 35ish games and ready to fill in more if needed would be awesome but he likely knows some team desperate for a #1 will give him a 6×6.

 

[bringbacktheskate604]

Right- I don't think Lankinen is going to get that kind of contract. Lankinen would have to be stellar the rest of the season and be excellent in the playoffs for him to get something over 5.

Lankinen imo isn't a 5 million dollar goalie and given how fast Allvin tends to re-sign players I don't think he will be back and being a big Demko supporter I'm ok with that

 

[biturbo19]

For sure, he didn't lose out in the end. He is going to win big in the end. But I definitely don't think it was any kind of calculation to wait until training camp to sign. All the spots simply filled up earlier in the summer. It has turned out VERY good that it played out like that. Big win in the end. But I'm sure if he had had a good enough offer on the table in July, ANYWHERE, he would have taken it. Glad he won, he deserves it. From here in Nashville, it helps make Trotz look like an even bigger fool. He turned a position of strength for the Preds into an absolute disaster.

I don't know about that. Absolutely everything we heard and saw with the way Lankinen and his agent handled the offseason, indicated that he was deliberately waiting on "the right opportunity" to showcase his abilities and a place where he could get playing time, ideally behind a decent team that isn't a goalie graveyard, prioritized well over the "right now" money or just getting a "decent contract" from someone or anyone. Some of it was that viable "starter/tandem" type opportunities did fill up pretty quickly. With all the shuffling and other teams having young guys that they were clearly expecting to take the reins. But it's not like he "missed out" on the various backup gigs he was surely offered. He simply didn't seem to have any interest in playing a pure backup role for anyone. He wanted games and a chance to earn that bigger contract and bigger role.


That is, there was clearly a point in the summer where all of the presumptive "starter" roles were at least tentatively "filled". So it appeared as though he just made a calculated decision to sit back and wait for either someone's new goaltending to falter massively, or for injuries to strike (as they always do). And sure enough, a spot opened up for him to earn himself a much higher profile look with a good run of games as the de facto starter in the absence of Demko.



Like yes, Trotz completely fumbled the Preds goaltending situation. But i'm not sure Lankinen ever expressed that he was even interested or willing to re-sign with the Preds, knowing that Saros was going to get the massive bulk of the starts and opportunity. Plus, with Askarov still in the fold demanding opportunity, there was potentially even going to be competition for those other "leftover starts". Really, it's the same thing that sent Askarov asking for a trade. Was hard for either guy to see much of a future or big opportunity behind a long-term re-signed Saros getting a total vote of confidence as their "workhorse" guy. More and more, players are starting to look out more for their own career prospects and take a bigger hold of where they end up.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I don't know about that. Absolutely everything we heard and saw with the way Lankinen and his agent handled the offseason, indicated that he was deliberately waiting on "the right opportunity" to showcase his abilities and a place where he could get playing time, ideally behind a decent team that isn't a goalie graveyard, prioritized well over the "right now" money or just getting a "decent contract" from someone or anyone. Some of it was that viable "starter/tandem" type opportunities did fill up pretty quickly. With all the shuffling and other teams having young guys that they were clearly expecting to take the reins. But it's not like he "missed out" on the various backup gigs he was surely offered. He simply didn't seem to have any interest in playing a pure backup role for anyone. He wanted games and a chance to earn that bigger contract and bigger role.


That is, there was clearly a point in the summer where all of the presumptive "starter" roles were at least tentatively "filled". So it appeared as though he just made a calculated decision to sit back and wait for either someone's new goaltending to falter massively, or for injuries to strike (as they always do). And sure enough, a spot opened up for him to earn himself a much higher profile look with a good run of games as the de facto starter in the absence of Demko.



Like yes, Trotz completely fumbled the Preds goaltending situation. But i'm not sure Lankinen ever expressed that he was even interested or willing to re-sign with the Preds, knowing that Saros was going to get the massive bulk of the starts and opportunity. Plus, with Askarov still in the fold demanding opportunity, there was potentially even going to be competition for those other "leftover starts". Really, it's the same thing that sent Askarov asking for a trade. Was hard for either guy to see much of a future or big opportunity behind a long-term re-signed Saros getting a total vote of confidence as their "workhorse" guy. More and more, players are starting to look out more for their own career prospects and take a bigger hold of where they end up.

Ok, disagreed. We saw a different story unfold from the Nashville perspective. He really was just a victim of the music stopping on the goalie carousel. Forget all about any presumptive starter roles... that's nonsense. He has been a de facto BUG. But those spots were all filled also. And nobody came knocking to pay him his $2M salary. So he got left out when the music stopped. Bailed out by the Demko injury, end of story. He would have taken ANYTHING else... just... nothing else ever came up.

There is no question that Lankinen would have re-upped with the Preds... if Trotz wasn't a dolt and was willing to take him. Look, you might think based on this season that Lankinen is some hot commodity goalie, but he was actually just "barely passable" as a low-usage BUG on Nashville. He wasn't in any position to angle for anything better than his previous contract. Trotz still screwed it up, because Wedgewood was no better. Plus he punted Askarov past all that. But let's not pretend that Lankinen in July 2024 held the same value as he does today.

Good for Lankinen that it panned out. But this is definitely a case of good luck + player success story, not any grand scheme plan by the player to engineer this outcome.

 

[biturbo19]

Ok, disagreed. We saw a different story unfold from the Nashville perspective. He really was just a victim of the music stopping on the goalie carousel. Forget all about any presumptive starter roles... that's nonsense. He has been a de facto BUG. But those spots were all filled also. And nobody came knocking to pay him his $2M salary. So he got left out when the music stopped. Bailed out by the Demko injury, end of story. He would have taken ANYTHING else... just... nothing else ever came up.

There is no question that Lankinen would have re-upped with the Preds... if Trotz wasn't a dolt and was willing to take him. Look, you might think based on this season that Lankinen is some hot commodity goalie, but he was actually just "barely passable" as a low-usage BUG on Nashville. He wasn't in any position to angle for anything better than his previous contract. Trotz still screwed it up, because Wedgewood was no better. Plus he punted Askarov past all that. But let's not pretend that Lankinen in July 2024 held the same value as he does today.

Good for Lankinen that it panned out. But this is definitely a case of good luck + player success story, not any grand scheme plan by the player to engineer this outcome.

The bolded is precisely why i didn't get the impression that he had any interest whatsoever in returning to that situation. It wasn't working for him. There were comments made to exactly that notion. Sure, there weren't teams banging down his door to sign him as a "starter" at that point. Or potentially even many teams looking to sign him as anything more than a 2/3G competition. But that's exactly why it always looked like at some point in the summer...he decided to turn down whatever 2/3G backup goalie competition type offers might be out there, bet on himself and wait for the situation he wanted to open up and give him that opportunity to actually play, and establish himself as more than just a "low-usage backup".

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

The bolded is precisely why i didn't get the impression that he had any interest whatsoever in returning to that situation. It wasn't working for him. There were comments made to exactly that notion. Sure, there weren't teams banging down his door to sign him as a "starter" at that point. Or potentially even many teams looking to sign him as anything more than a 2/3G competition. But that's exactly why it always looked like at some point in the summer...he decided to turn down whatever 2/3G backup goalie competition type offers might be out there, bet on himself and wait for the situation he wanted to open up and give him that opportunity to actually play, and establish himself as more than just a "low-usage backup".

Well, he would have turned down offers on July 1st that represented a pay cut on his previous season's salary of $2M, sure. He wanted a multi-year (incl. just 2 years) deal at at least that same $2M. Which simply wasn't available for a BUG on July 1st. So then the music quickly stopped. And he took the ONLY offer that eventually did come up thanks to the Demko injury, for 1x$0.875k. There was no grand calculation, other than just missing the boat on the July 1st valuation of BUGs. Not sure why you want to imagine some grand scheme involved. His only other option was to go back to Finland, which he was probably very tempted to do.

 

[biturbo19]

Well, he would have turned down offers on July 1st that represented a pay cut on his previous season's salary of $2M, sure. He wanted a multi-year (incl. just 2 years) deal at at least that same $2M. Which simply wasn't available for a BUG on July 1st. So then the music quickly stopped. And he took the ONLY offer that eventually did come up thanks to the Demko injury, for 1x$0.875k. There was no grand calculation, other than just missing the boat on the July 1st valuation of BUGs. Not sure why you want to imagine some grand scheme involved. His only other option was to go back to Finland, which he was probably very tempted to do.

Again, i think it's pretty much a guarantee that he had other 1x $875k type offers on the table. He simply didn't seem interested in signing on anywhere to be a low-usage 2-3G somewhere. Because the Preds experience had worked out so poorly for him. At some point, it's very evident that while much worse goalies were signing on still for that kind of money or more on 1-year sort of deals to play competition for a backup spot...Lankinen had decided to sit back and wait for a better opportunity to come along. As that was the only way to realistically earn his way back to a $2M+ multi-year deal sort of consideration. Taking low-usage backup type money for a year, to earn his way to a real multi-year deal and opportunity to play at least a tandem role later.

At the time, i didn't know if it was the best strategy either. Risky to some extent, but it was pretty clearly what he decided to do. And at that point...it was clearly a decent gamble to wait for an opportunity to play, rather than sign on wherever was offering, only to be potentially buried and barely see the net at all. Everyone that pays attention knows that every year, opportunities arise out of desperation throughout the season. He got lucky in that the Vancouver thing came to a head much earlier than other goaltending situations...but there were always going to be opportunities that opened up. Every year, many teams end up with goaltender injuries or guys just falling off a cliff and delving at least 3 rungs deep on their goaltending depth chart. That = opportunity. And Lankinen clearly bet on the idea that waiting and playing even half a season in a good opportunity, was a better way to showcase what he can do, than just re-signing for cheap with Nashville or whoever, in a situation that had just tanked his "value". Like...why would he agree to the same sort of situation that just nuked his career prospects, all over again?


Like...Preds goalies who aren't Saros have started a total of ~13 games this year. Lankinen alone has already had the opportunity to start 32. That's where realizing Demko's situation was pretty significant, Lankinen jumped at the first real "opportunity to play" that came along. Where it was clear he'd get a good run of games, even with Silovs around and not knowing how much he'd struggle this year. It was still promising a lot more than a dozen or so starts through most of the season.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Again, i think it's pretty much a guarantee that he had other 1x $875k type offers on the table. He simply didn't seem interested in signing on anywhere to be a low-usage 2-3G somewhere. Because the Preds experience had worked out so poorly for him. At some point, it's very evident that while much worse goalies were signing on still for that kind of money or more on 1-year sort of deals to play competition for a backup spot...Lankinen had decided to sit back and wait for a better opportunity to come along. As that was the only way to realistically earn his way back to a $2M+ multi-year deal sort of consideration. Taking low-usage backup type money for a year, to earn his way to a real multi-year deal and opportunity to play at least a tandem role later.

At the time, i didn't know if it was the best strategy either. Risky to some extent, but it was pretty clearly what he decided to do. And at that point...it was clearly a decent gamble to wait for an opportunity to play, rather than sign on wherever was offering, only to be potentially buried and barely see the net at all. Everyone that pays attention knows that every year, opportunities arise out of desperation throughout the season. He got lucky in that the Vancouver thing came to a head much earlier than other goaltending situations...but there were always going to be opportunities that opened up. Every year, many teams end up with goaltender injuries or guys just falling off a cliff and delving at least 3 rungs deep on their goaltending depth chart. That = opportunity. And Lankinen clearly bet on the idea that waiting and playing even half a season in a good opportunity, was a better way to showcase what he can do, than just re-signing for cheap with Nashville or whoever, in a situation that had just tanked his "value". Like...why would he agree to the same sort of situation that just nuked his career prospects, all over again?


Like...Preds goalies who aren't Saros have started a total of ~13 games this year. Lankinen alone has already had the opportunity to start 32. That's where realizing Demko's situation was pretty significant, Lankinen jumped at the first real "opportunity to play" that came along. Where it was clear he'd get a good run of games, even with Silovs around and not knowing how much he'd struggle this year. It was still promising a lot more than a dozen or so starts through most of the season.

I'm not really following. Lankinen wanted 2x$2M at least on July 1st, right? Do you agree? That priced him out of Nashville. It also effectively priced him out of everywhere else, given how quickly teams locked up their goaltending rotations.

1x$875k was never a thing until training camp when Vancouver, due to the Demko injury, was the only NHL team with a goaltending opening. So he took it. There wasn't risk, calculation, etc involved.

It's no more complicated than that. It was THE ONLY job opening available, period.

 

[biturbo19]

I'm not really following. Lankinen wanted 2x$2M at least on July 1st, right? Do you agree? That priced him out of Nashville. It also effectively priced him out of everywhere else, given how quickly teams locked up their goaltending rotations.

1x$875k was never a thing until training camp when Vancouver, due to the Demko injury, was the only NHL team with a goaltending opening. So he took it. There wasn't risk, calculation, etc involved.

It's no more complicated than that. It was THE ONLY job opening available, period.

I don't know that he was purely in it for a 2x $2M minimum deal on July 1st at all. I'm sure he wanted something like that. But when that didn't materialize, i think his priority pretty clearly pivoted to just finding an opportunity to play games this season and try to swing for that multi-year multimillion dollar deal again this coming summer.

There were still all kinds of jobs available, teams signing worse guys to $1M or less 1-year deals. But i reiterate, why on earth would someone like Lankinen want to sign on to compete as a 2/3G who might get a dozen starts all year if he's lucky, when he believes he's capable of offering a lot more? Especially if we're talking about the same sort of low-usage backup money either way?

Vancouver was really just the first actual "opportunity to play" that happened to come up. That part was certainly fortunate for Lankinen and the gamble he clearly made when his "perfect contract" didn't fall into his lap on July 1st. But plenty of other situations have also opened up since then, and were always going to...even if that'd meant Lankinen sitting out a couple months of the season waiting for something to give.



I'm just not sure what you're not following here. Yes, Vancouver was the first bonafide "opportunity" that actually opened up for him and he jumped on it immediately because it was a good one. That's completely separate from "had zero contract offers" for other roles that he decided to sit back and pass on. A calculated gamble on a better "opportunity" eventually coming up once the music stopped and the season started, and chairs that didn't look open suddenly become open.

 

[Fatass]

Shouldn’t Lankonen get a good backup contract. He’s nearly 30 and isn’t a proven starter. Not too sure what that kind of goalie gets with the cap rising?
10-15 million over 3/4 years?

 

[Rick Rocket]

3 x 3

 

[scholl]

I'm not really following. Lankinen wanted 2x$2M at least on July 1st, right? Do you agree? That priced him out of Nashville.

No. He didn't stay in Nashville although they wanted to keep him because he wanted to become starting goalie.

It also effectively priced him out of everywhere else, given how quickly teams locked up their goaltending rotations.

1x$875k was never a thing until training camp when Vancouver, due to the Demko injury, was the only NHL team with a goaltending opening. So he took it. There wasn't risk, calculation, etc involved.

It's no more complicated than that. It was THE ONLY job opening available, period.

He had several offers but he waited for an opportunity which would give him a bigger role. Money wasn't something he was thinking about.