Value of: Kevin Lankinen next contract?

[Hollowmoon]

Kevin Lankinen plays like $5M goalie and he's only making ($875,000)

How much do you think, he will make in the future and is he staying in Vancouver?

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[BKarchitect]

Depends how much you believe in his season and ability to keep up this workload. He’s been at times brilliant this year but also throws in some real stinkers from time to time. His goals saved above expected is 22nd among goalies with 20+ starts and his sv% is good at 0.906 but right in line with his career average and not towards the top of the league.

He’s been playing behind a roster that has felt very short handed at times and he’s playing obviously much more than he has in other stops - so to maintain his career average sv% is an impressive feat. But we are also approaching uncharted territory as a guy who had previously never started more than 37 games a season.

I’d say the profile doesn’t fit the mold of guys getting the 5x5 deals right now. Daccord, Blackwood and Thompson are all in the top 10ish of GSAx…so even if at times it feels Lankinen is pulling that kind of load - I think something shorter term and slightly less AAV is what you’d be looking at.

I don’t think the Canucks consider 5x5 if that’s what he’s demanding. I’m thinking more like 3x4ish.

 

[TGWL]

$4 million.

 

[Hollowmoon]

Last away win was his 13rd. Leading the league. After him are 2 times vezina winners Connor Hellebuyck (12) and Florida Sergei Bobrovski (11).

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I like Lankinen, he was a solid backup for the Preds and should have been playing more games than the Preds allowed him. But I think anybody who thinks he can be a full-time NHL starter is deluding themselves based on a small sample. He shouldn't get anything more than 3x$2.5M. Maybe 3x$3M with inflation. He's a 1B option if your starter gets hurt, and I really wish the Preds had moved on from Saros and run with a Lankinen+Askarov duo instead, but... if you go out and sign him to a bigger contract you are just setting yourself up for disappointment and resentment.

I'm glad he parlayed his goalie-carousel loss in the musical chairs game of free agency into a bigger payday and some security, He always deserved a better fate than the last-minute $875k emergency deal he ended up with. So he'll get that win regardless. Just the team that locks him up on a starter's salary is probably going to regret it.

 

[BCNate]

I like Lankinen, he was a solid backup for the Preds and should have been playing more games than the Preds allowed him. But I think anybody who thinks he can be a full-time NHL starter is deluding themselves based on a small sample. He shouldn't get anything more than 3x$2.5M. Maybe 3x$3M with inflation. He's a 1B option if your starter gets hurt, and I really wish the Preds had moved on from Saros and run with a Lankinen+Askarov duo instead, but... if you go out and sign him to a bigger contract you are just setting yourself up for disappointment and resentment.

I'm glad he parlayed his goalie-carousel loss in the musical chairs game of free agency into a bigger payday and some security, He always deserved a better fate than the last-minute $875k emergency deal he ended up with. So he'll get that win regardless. Just the team that locks him up on a starter's salary is probably going to regret it.

I'd go 3x3 for him for sure, maybe even a bit higher. He plays a very calm game. With some serious health questions around Demko and Silovs not ready to play in the NHL, signing KL makes a lot of sense.

 

[AvatarAang]

i predict that Lankinen will get into a fight with Demko next season and force the nucks to trade one of them

 

[eviohh26]

He has the talent to be a starter in this league. Just a matter of if he can handle the work load.

 

[Brookbank]

 

[Fatass]

Has to go to July 1. No advantage signing before that. He’s not an 8th year guy.

 

[Three On Zero]

Should get 3-4 million

 

[JD86]

He was great in October, but he hasn't had a SV% above .905 any other month. Overall he's at 1.6 GSAE and a .905 SV%. I guess I just don't get why so many people are infatuated with him this year, he was better last year as a backup. I wouldn't want him as the clear starter if I was serious about winning. He's a very good backup goalie, ideally.

 

[Brodeur]

It'll be interesting to see if any teams look at him as a starter. Teams typically don't want to pay more than a couple million for a backup.

Ballpark look at what teams have under contract for 2025-26. Probably limited teams looking for a starting goalie going into this offseason.

UFA: Lankinen-Hill-Samsonov-Georgiev-Vanecek-Rittich-Vladar-Kahkonen-Vejmelka-Lyon-Husso-Forsberg-Johansson-Andersen-Quick-Lindgren-Reimer

ANA: Gibson (6.4 mil AAV) - Dostal (RFA)
CAL: Wolf (850 K) - tbd/Cooley (775 K)
EDM: Skinner (2.6 mil) - Pickard (1 mil)
LAK: Kuemper (5.25 mil) - tbd/Portillo (783 K)
SJS: Askarov (2 mil) - tbd
SEA: Daccord (5 mil) - tbd/Grubauer (4.75 mil)
VAN: Demko (5 mil) - tbd/Silovs (850 K)
VGK: tbd - tbd/Schmid (875 K)

CHI: Mrazek (4.25 mil) - Brossoit (3.3 mil)
COL: Blackwood (5.25 mil) - Wedgewood (1.5 mil)
DAL: Oettinger (8.25 mil) - DeSmith (1 mil)
MIN: Gustavsson (3.75 mil) - Wallstedt? (2.2 mil)
NSH: Saros (7.74 mil) - Annunen (837 K)
STL: Binnington (6 mil) - Hofer (RFA)
UTA: tbd - Ingram (1.95 mil)
WPG: Hellebuyck (8.5 mil) - Comrie (825 K)

BOS: Swayman (8.25 mil) - Korpisalo (3 mil)
BUF: Luukkonen (4.75 mil) - Levi (RFA)
DET: Talbot (2.5 mil) - tbd/Cossa (863 K)
FLO: Bobrovsky (10 mil) - Knight (4.5 mil)
MON: Montembeault (3.15 mil) - tbd/Primeau/Dobes (RFA)
OTT: Ullmark (8.25 mil) - tbd/Merilainen (RFA)
TBL: Vasilevskiy (9.5 mil) - tbd
TOR: Woll (3.66 mil) - Stolarz (2.5 mil)

CAR: Kochetkov (2 mil) - tbd
CLB: Merzlikins (5.4 mil) - Tarasov (RFA)
NJD: Markstrom (4.125 mil) - tbd/Daws (812 K)
NYI: Sorokin (8.25 mil) - tbd/Hogberg (775 K)
NYR: Shesterkin (11.5 mil) - tbd
PHI: Fedotov (3.275 mil) - Ersson (1.45 mil)
PIT: Jarry (5.375 mil) - Nedeljkovic (2.5 mil)
WSH: Thompson (5.85 mil) - tbd

 

[Diablo2020]

As a fan im totally fine giving him 5,000,000 for 4 years, today.

After the first 30 games while he kept us afloat every single question before the drama was always about "do you have cap to keep him" and no one seems to notice for the last 15 games while the questions have been obviously elsewhere, the Canucks have oodles of space now.

Id trade Demmer if he had a shred of value but he doesnt so id give Lankinen 5 tomorrow to play 41 games and split.

He doesnt need to sign early as pointed out above but we gave him his chance to make a 20,000,000 type contract and im sure it gets done before deadline in Van.

 

[biturbo19]

I like Lankinen, he was a solid backup for the Preds and should have been playing more games than the Preds allowed him. But I think anybody who thinks he can be a full-time NHL starter is deluding themselves based on a small sample. He shouldn't get anything more than 3x$2.5M. Maybe 3x$3M with inflation. He's a 1B option if your starter gets hurt, and I really wish the Preds had moved on from Saros and run with a Lankinen+Askarov duo instead, but... if you go out and sign him to a bigger contract you are just setting yourself up for disappointment and resentment.

I'm glad he parlayed his goalie-carousel loss in the musical chairs game of free agency into a bigger payday and some security, He always deserved a better fate than the last-minute $875k emergency deal he ended up with. So he'll get that win regardless. Just the team that locks him up on a starter's salary is probably going to regret it.

I don't think he ever even necessarily "lost out" on the "goalie carousel" this past summer. It always looked to me like it was a very calculated play. He could've signed on with a sketchy situation or spot where he would continue to get shafted on playing time for more money in the short term...but he and his agent obviously looked at what was offered, and decided to "bet on himself". So he waited until an actually good opportunity opened up. It was inevitable that something would come along. Wouldn't have guessed Vancouver necessarily, but with Demko injury stuff coming back ultra murky...it was a prime opportunity to assume a quasi-starter workload for at least a decent run of games, behind a team that at least looked like...not a total dumpster fire, coming off a solid playoff run last year.


It's looking like a brilliant move at this point. He's probably earned himself a ton more money in the long-run. Somebody is going to offer him a contract at least in that 1b sort of "tandem guy" range, with some term attached.

 

[David71]

5x4

 

[jonlin]

Id say offer him 4x 3,5M. Go with a 1A/1B tandem

 

[LickTheEnvelope]

$3-$4 mil. Depends on term.

 

[Kaners PPGs]

It's hard to make a prediction without knowing how the rest of his season goes. I can see anywhere from 3.5 to 5.5 for 3-4 years based on how well he plays down the stretch and into the playoffs. If Demko is hurt and/or unreliable and Lankinen plays well the rest of the season leading Vancouver into the playoffs then I can see him closer to or above 5 considering the rise in the cap. If he's average and/or plays less than the half the starts and Demko reclaims the net, he'll be in the 3-4 M range.

 

[Hollowmoon]

Lankinen is going to start FIN - CAN game.

 

[RandV]

With the Demko injury if the Canucks weren't able to land Lankinen they wouldn't be in a playoff position right now. He's been a guy where when you start playing him he wins some games for you but the longer you keep him in the 1A position the less effective becomes, so a goalie the fans love but when you stop and look doesn't have an impressive stat line.

He should get a much better contract this year but I don't think anyone's going to give him 1A money, and I think the best bet is to just stay in Vancouver on a respectable deal around 4 years $5M cap hit, and at most only a very limited NTC. With a more modest cap ceiling that would be too wealthy but with the rise we're getting he's great insurance with Demko, who also only makes $5M through next season so that's not too big an expense on goaltending.

Either way $3-4M for him sounds like old cap ceiling money. With the rising cap he should be more in the $4-5M range. If the Canucks pay in the high range they can just call it a bonus for the service he provided this season.

 

[crowi]

Canucks got him dirt cheap. He will be getting paid in the summer, deservedly so. Likely his best chance to get that big deal to secure his future, so expecting around $5M. If he gets Canucks to the conference finals, then maybe even more.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

With the Demko injury if the Canucks weren't able to land Lankinen they wouldn't be in a playoff position right now. He's been a guy where when you start playing him he wins some games for you but the longer you keep him in the 1A position the less effective becomes, so a goalie the fans love but when you stop and look doesn't have an impressive stat line.

He should get a much better contract this year but I don't think anyone's going to give him 1A money, and I think the best bet is to just stay in Vancouver on a respectable deal around 4 years $5M cap hit, and at most only a very limited NTC. With a more modest cap ceiling that would be too wealthy but with the rise we're getting he's great insurance with Demko, who also only makes $5M through next season so that's not too big an expense on goaltending.

Either way $3-4M for him sounds like old cap ceiling money. With the rising cap he should be more in the $4-5M range. If the Canucks pay in the high range they can just call it a bonus for the service he provided this season.

He's going to be an interesting case for the 'new market' for goalies because of that...a gamble as a full time starter, but probably more valuable than a backup. 1B with an outside chance to be a 1A? I wouldn't want to be the guy writing that contract this offseason in particular.

 

[ayoshi]

At this point the Canucks have to know they need more than your regular backup goalie. Demko is a stiff breeze away from missing who know how long with who know what injury. Lankinen is co-MVP of the Canucks this season with Hughes.

If Lankinen wants $5M I think the Canucks pony up. Imagine going into next season with an injury-prone Demko and AHL-level starter Silovs as your tandem. It could be goodnight to the season the moment Demko gets injured.

 

[LickTheEnvelope]

It's hard to make a prediction without knowing how the rest of his season goes. I can see anywhere from 3.5 to 5.5 for 3-4 years based on how well he plays down the stretch and into the playoffs. If Demko is hurt and/or unreliable and Lankinen plays well the rest of the season leading Vancouver into the playoffs then I can see him closer to or above 5 considering the rise in the cap. If he's average and/or plays less than the half the starts and Demko reclaims the net, he'll be in the 3-4 M range.

I mean Blackwood just signed for $5.25 mil per for 5 years and his numbers are much better than Lankinen's.