Player Discussion Kevin Hayes Part III

[leetch99]

I could live with him as a # 3 Center at no more than 5 Mill for 5-6 years . I would be wary of the contract clauses and restrictions though in case we ever needed to move him . I doubt he resigns here for that especially knowing we will have the Cap this Summer to get that extra million from us .

 

[Blais to Win]

Doubt he resigns? He's an RFA.

 

[haveandare]

I could live with him as a # 3 Center at no more than 5 Mill for 5-6 years . I would be wary of the contract clauses and restrictions though in case we ever needed to move him . I doubt he resigns here for that especially knowing we will have the Cap this Summer to get that extra million from us .

He’s an RFA and 5 for 5 or 6 is very generous for him imo. I’d give him an NTC for 2 years or so if it were helpful in keeping his hit down, but I’d want them to be able to trade him toward the end of any long term deal.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

He’s an RFA and 5 for 5 or 6 is very generous for him imo. I’d give him an NTC for 2 years or so if it were helpful in keeping his hit down, but I’d want them to be able to trade him toward the end of any long term deal.

He has 1 RFA year left. The rest is UFA years.

 

[Crease]

I'd give him a two year show me deal. I have no clue what kind of player he's gonna be in three years.

 

[haveandare]

He has 1 RFA year left. The rest is UFA years.

Sorry, I’m not much of a contract guru. What does that mean in practical terms? Like is that number too high then, too low?

 

[DanielBrassard]

4 years at 4-4.5M per would be fair IMO. He's had a very nice season and I would have no problem with him being here for the long haul. Would love to see him have a legit goalscorer on his line too, he's never had that.

 

[GAGLine]

Sorry, I’m not much of a contract guru. What does that mean in practical terms? Like is that number too high then, too low?

It just means that the UFA years will be more expensive, but Hayes isn't likely to get more than 5 mil per year given his numbers. Kreider got 4 years @ 4.625. Zib got 5.35 x 5. Hayes may fall somewhere in the middle of those 2, but it will depend on the term. The more years he gets, the more UFA years, which will push the AAV higher.

@Crease We've seen what Hayes can do. A show me contract at this point would be a bad decision. A 2 year deal makes him a UFA at age 28 and then we're in the same position where we have to decide to either trade him or sign him long term to an even higher AAV, probably until he is 33/34. It would be better to sign him for 5 or 6 years now. We get 4 or 5 good years out of him, then we decide to either trade him or try to sign him to a short term deal.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Sorry, I’m not much of a contract guru. What does that mean in practical terms? Like is that number too high then, too low?

RFA years are cheaper to buy out during contract negotiations. A player with 4 RFA years left will sign at a lower AAV than a player with just 1 RFA year left (considering the players are equal).

Let's say for arguments' sake, that Hayes signs for 6 years, which means he is signed until he is 32.

Year 1 is RFA is 4m
Years 2 through 6 are 5.5m on average

That's a total of 31.5m, which comes down to a 5.25m AAV.

Also, RFA years cannot be subject to any clauses.

If he had 3 RFA years, by that same logic, it would be:

3x4m = 12
3x5.5m = 16.5

Total is 28.5m which comes down to 4.75m AAV


*Don't take these numbers serious. It's just to explain with an actual example.

 

[EdJovanovski]

I used to hate Hayes even more than Miller, but he sure has improved this season. We have so many Centers though. For next season maybe it looks like..

Kreider - Zibanejad - Buchnevich
Kovalchuk - Namestnikov - Zucc
Chytil - Hayes - Spooner
Vesey - Andersson - Fast

 

[haveandare]

Thanks for explaining GAG and Kreiderman.

Sounds like we can get a reasonable deal on him then. I’d be very open to 4 or 5 years at 4.5 or something. Would also be open to an NTC for 2 or so years just to give him peace of mind with all the changes going on. Would want to be able to move him at the end of the deal though for flexibility.

 

[darko]

I'd give him 5/25 or 6/32.5 type deal no questions asked.

 

[darko]

I used to hate Hayes even more than Miller, but he sure has improved this season. We have so many Centers though. For next season maybe it looks like..

Kreider - Zibanejad - Buchnevich
Kovalchuk - Namestnikov - Zucc
Chytil - Hayes - Spooner
Vesey - Andersson - Fast

Kevin The Bozo am i right?

 

[Blais to Win]

Sounds like we can get a reasonable deal on him then. I’d be very open to 4 or 5 years at 4.5 or something. Would also be open to an NTC for 2 or so years just to give him peace of mind with all the changes going on. Would want to be able to move him at the end of the deal though for flexibility.

I like it but I bet we can go even a bit lower.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

It just means that the UFA years will be more expensive, but Hayes isn't likely to get more than 5 mil per year given his numbers. Kreider got 4 years @ 4.625. Zib got 5.35 x 5. Hayes may fall somewhere in the middle of those 2, but it will depend on the term. The more years he gets, the more UFA years, which will push the AAV higher.

@Crease We've seen what Hayes can do. A show me contract at this point would be a bad decision. A 2 year deal makes him a UFA at age 28 and then we're in the same position where we have to decide to either trade him or sign him long term to an even higher AAV, probably until he is 33/34. It would be better to sign him for 5 or 6 years now. We get 4 or 5 good years out of him, then we decide to either trade him or try to sign him to a short term deal.

Let's not forget that the cap has gone up since those deals were signed. That matters during contract negotiations. It would be better we look at CH% instead.

CH% at the time of signing their current contract...
Kreider: 6.34 (2 RFA years)
Zibanejad: 7.13 (2 RFA years)
Zuccarello: 6.52 (UFA)
Stepan: 9.10 (2 RFA years)

Hayes, as mentioned before, has 1 RFA year left. If we assume Hayes gets the same CH% as Zibanejad, despite having just 1 RFA year to be negotiated, that would bring his AAV to:

78m cap: 5.56m
79m cap: 5.63m
80m cap: 5.70m
81m cap: 5.77m
82m cap: 5.85m

*Going by reports that the salary cap will be between 78 and 82 million, this is what that comes down to.

 

[NJRangers35]

I'm a Hayes fan and was expecting much lower. I was thinking maybe 6/$27 which is $4.5 a year. Didn't think he'd be in the 5's.

 

[Irishguy42]

If we could get Hayes below $5M, that would be great. Give him a 4 or 5 year deal.

 

[egelband]

I used to hate Hayes even more than Miller, but he sure has improved this season. We have so many Centers though. For next season maybe it looks like..

Kreider - Zibanejad - Buchnevich
Kovalchuk - Namestnikov - Zucc
Chytil - Hayes - Spooner
Vesey - Andersson - Fast

That’s not a bad lineup at all. Would love them to find a star 1C. But even with the top-nine-by-committee look, it’s pretty good.

 

[egelband]

I'm a Hayes fan and was expecting much lower. I was thinking maybe 6/$27 which is $4.5 a year. Didn't think he'd be in the 5's.

I think that’s reasonable. I think that’s good money for a 2C-3C tweener. But does he accept that?

 

[Lays]

I used to hate Hayes even more than Miller, but he sure has improved this season. We have so many Centers though. For next season maybe it looks like..

Kreider - Zibanejad - Buchnevich
Kovalchuk - Namestnikov - Zucc
Chytil - Hayes - Spooner
Vesey - Andersson - Fast

That would be a really good offensive group, Id switch Namestnikov and Chytil though and keep Lias in the AHL, no need to rush him and I’d rather have him playing top line in Hartford than playing with Vesey and Fast on a 4th line. I’d put Nieves in Anderssons spot, KZB is also pretty bad now id be open to moving them around.

Namestnikov-Zib-Buch (TWF, Sniper, Playmaker)
Kovy-Chytil-Zucc (a really good offensive line)
Kreider-Hayes-Spooner (Kreider makes the line more physical and can do the board work for Hayes+Spooner)
Vesey-Nieves-Fast (solid 4th line that can chip in some offense)

I could see this team making the playoffs easily next year tbh

 

[darko]

Whatever the lines are next year, Kreider/Ziba/Buch needs to be a thing again.

 

[Lays]

Whatever the lines are next year, Kreider/Ziba/Buch needs to be a thing again.

Yeah if they play like they did pre Zib injury. They’ve been awful as of late

 

[Inferno]

Kevin Hayes has been so so soooo good the past few months. I'm scared what a long term deal is going to look like..but if I can grab him for 6 or 7 years at a number under 5...I'd do it in a heartbeat.

 

[Irishguy42]

Love our goof ball

 

[egelband]

He is really starting to control the game during his shifts. Maybe it’s more due to matchups or something but I like to think he’s improving. He always had good vision but now he’s starting to make those good smart passes from all kinds of positions on the ice. And he’s also getting his body positioned great.