Player Discussion: Kent Johnson - Winger or Center?

[Xoggz22]

over 82 games, kent johnson's current scoring pace would give him a final line of: 52g-41a–93p

over the last three seasons, the players with the closest statlines to that are:

• kyle connor (21-22): 47-46–93 (79gp)
• alex ovechkin (21-22): 50-40-90(77gp)
• brayden point (22-23): 51-44–95 (82gp)
• brayden point (23-24): 46-44–90 (82gp)
• filip forsberg (23-24): 48-46–94 (82gp)

also that 2.36 5v5 G/60 is higher than:

• every single player in the league last year with more than 150 minutes of ice time (matthews led the league at 1.84)
• every single player in the league the year before that one (22-23)
• also every player in the league the year before that too (21-22)

auston matthews had 1.94 g/60 at 5v5 in his best career season so far.

the obvious caveat here is that KJ is shooting 28% which isn't sustainable, but i cannot understate how good he looks this year. he's still creative and confident, but has stepped up his skating and puck protection and grown into an elite shooter.

To me... the exciting thing is that not only would he be expected to get better, but the supporting case will also improve. That's so incredibly fun to think about. He looks good and the stats support that he is really playing at that level. At some point I would like to see him play with Chinny. Just let him shoot and become that 30+ goal scorer I feel he has in him (Chinny).

 

[Theo Von]

over 82 games, kent johnson's current scoring pace would give him a final line of: 52g-41a–93p

over the last three seasons, the players with the closest statlines to that are:

• kyle connor (21-22): 47-46–93 (79gp)
• alex ovechkin (21-22): 50-40-90(77gp)
• brayden point (22-23): 51-44–95 (82gp)
• brayden point (23-24): 46-44–90 (82gp)
• filip forsberg (23-24): 48-46–94 (82gp)

also that 2.36 5v5 G/60 is higher than:

• every single player in the league last year with more than 150 minutes of ice time (matthews led the league at 1.84)
• every single player in the league the year before that one (22-23)
• also every player in the league the year before that too (21-22)

auston matthews had 1.94 g/60 at 5v5 in his best career season so far.

the obvious caveat here is that KJ is shooting 28% which isn't sustainable, but i cannot understate how good he looks this year. he's still creative and confident, but has stepped up his skating and puck protection and grown into an elite shooter.

brayden point: a man of consistency.

 

[Theo Von]

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Any Idea as to where we should expect his shooting percentage to regress to? What do we expect a "normal" year for KJ might be 40-50-90?.

iirc the baseline expectation is about 10-15%, and KJ's raw shooting talent is probably on the higher end of that range. i think a 'normal' year for KJ (assuming 82 games) is probably going to be something like 25-35 goals.

that said, i think there's room for growth beyond that, because:

1. he's establishing himself as a shooting threat, which teams will have to account for, which will open up passing opportunities that he's smart and skilled enough to capitalize on
2. once his reputation catches up to his skill level, teams will start giving him more respect on the power play
3. we could see breakouts from other guys (fantilli in particular)

point #2 is key. you see how teams give kucherov a ton of space because they respect (fear?) him on the half-wall, and how the whole thing runs through him. if KJ starts getting a similar treatment, the jackets power play could really start humming once some other guys develop. that'll mean a lot more points.

 

[VT]

over 82 games, kent johnson's current scoring pace would give him a final line of: 52g-41a–93p

over the last three seasons, the players with the closest statlines to that are:

• kyle connor (21-22): 47-46–93 (79gp)
• alex ovechkin (21-22): 50-40-90(77gp)
• brayden point (22-23): 51-44–95 (82gp)
• brayden point (23-24): 46-44–90 (82gp)
• filip forsberg (23-24): 48-46–94 (82gp)

also that 2.36 5v5 G/60 is higher than:

• every single player in the league last year with more than 150 minutes of ice time (matthews led the league at 1.84)
• every single player in the league the year before that one (22-23)
• also every player in the league the year before that too (21-22)

auston matthews had 1.94 g/60 at 5v5 in his best career season so far.

the obvious caveat here is that KJ is shooting 28% which isn't sustainable, but i cannot understate how good he looks this year. he's still creative and confident, but has stepped up his skating and puck protection and grown into an elite shooter.

Unfortunately, it's still early in the season and Johnson isn't playing with a center like Scheifelle, Backstrom/Kuznetsov, or a winger like Kucherov. Or a combination like O'Reilly and Nyquist, not forgetting that last year Preds was a system TOP team.

 

[CBJx614]

Unfortunately, it's still early in the season and Johnson isn't playing with a center like Scheifelle, Backstrom/Kuznetsov, or a winger like Kucherov. Or a combination like O'Reilly and Nyquist, not forgetting that last year Preds was a system TOP team.

That's the thing, he's producing without needing a top center because he's a play driver himself. And now that he's paired with Monahan I think we can continue to expect the production.

 

[VT]

That's the thing, he's producing without needing a top center because he's a play driver himself. And now that he's paired with Monahan I think we can continue to expect the production.

And who will score goals from his passes. Monahan? Besides, he can easily be moved back to Fantilli, as the Voronkov - Fantilli - Marchenko line isn't very productive.

 

[Viqsi]

And who will score goals from his passes. Monahan?

Marchenko's also a pretty good finisher. Fantilli should get there once he's out of this slump.

EDIT: And if Chinakhov can keep from being regularly injured, well, he's got a fairly decent shot.

 

[VT]

Marchenko's also a pretty good finisher. Fantilli should get there once he's out of this slump.

EDIT: And if Chinakhov can keep from being regularly injured, well, he's got a fairly decent shot.

Yegor does have a hard shot, but he doesn't have the accuracy of the top players yet. Marchenko seems overrated to me, I hope I'm wrong.
If I understand right you mean this season.

 

[Cowumbus]

That's the thing, he's producing without needing a top center because he's a play driver himself. And now that he's paired with Monahan I think we can continue to expect the production.

No you have to have a good center to be good, we learned that with Laine. Guys aren’t able to drive play on their own silly!

 

[Youngguns80]

 

[Doggy]

Article by AP in The Athletic about KJ today. Talking to KJ and HCDE about KJ's noticeable production drop in the past few weeks. Nothing news shattering and perhaps pretty obvious stuff. I suspect KJ will benefit when we get away from the 11-7 lineups and getting some help from someone on his line who can keep up with him. But yeah...league has taken notice of him and he and the team are going to need to adjust.

 

[Remparts666]

Article by AP in The Athletic about KJ today. Talking to KJ and HCDE about KJ's noticeable production drop in the past few weeks. Nothing news shattering and perhaps pretty obvious stuff. I suspect KJ will benefit when we get away from the 11-7 lineups and getting some help from someone on his line who can keep up with him. But yeah...league has taken notice of him and he and the team are going to need to adjust.

Is Chinakhov a good fit for him? I noticed that Evason had Fantili-Johnson-Plug and Sillinger-Chinakhov-plug before the injury to Yegor and I wondered why. Wouldnt it be ideal to have KJ and Chinakhov together developing chemistry given their profile?

 

[stevo61]

Is Chinakhov a good fit for him? I noticed that Evason had Fantili-Johnson-Plug and Sillinger-Chinakhov-plug before the injury to Yegor and I wondered why. Wouldnt it be ideal to have KJ and Chinakhov together developing chemistry given their profile?

They were trying numerous things to get Fantilli going for awhile. Coaches also seem to really like Sillinger so maybe a Chinakhov-Sillinger-Johnson line when he's back. Jenner coming back would be absolutely huge for overall balance too

 

[Theo Von]

numero uno in the entire league

 

[majormajor]

numero uno in the entire league

The last sentence in the post is meant to be discouraging.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I know his point totals have been fine, but I have to admit that KJ hasn’t been the KJ that started the season in my opinion. At the start, he was dominating with puck possession and was a force on the puck. He was even on the PK. Then he got hurt, came back, and was largely the same for a while.

But now the last few months I don’t think KJ has been that player. Obviously know he wasn’t going to be that player every game, but I haven’t even seen it in a while. Largely quiet.

He’s had a good season and this was certainly a step in the right direction. But I think he hasn’t been the same player he started the season as.

 

[MoeBartoli]

I know his point totals have been fine, but I have to admit that KJ hasn’t been the KJ that started the season in my opinion. At the start, he was dominating with puck possession and was a force on the puck. He was even on the PK. Then he got hurt, came back, and was largely the same for a while.

But now the last few months I don’t think KJ has been that player. Obviously know he wasn’t going to be that player every game, but I haven’t even seen it in a while. Largely quiet.

He’s had a good season and this was certainly a step in the right direction. But I think he hasn’t been the same player he started the season as.

I agree he hasn’t been as sparkling lately. In recent games I think the tighter defensive play has stifled his more free-wheeling style. Also the PP power outage has hurt him though he shares some of that blame.

One big impact on him has been his separation from the guys he’s been most productive with - JVR and DBB. In 15 games that trio was 10/4 in GF/GA. In 50 games with JVR the pair was 21/14 (which includes the DBB totals).

That said, I’m not worried about KJ as he’s too skilled and still young to not be a high producing winger in this league.

 

[majormajor]

I still think the early season spark he had was mostly because of the power in his legs that he's gradually lost as the season grinds on. He's still not a physically mature athlete. I know that he cited the focus on him from opponents as one reason he wasn't getting free as often but I'm somewhat skeptical of that. He hasn't seemed to be one of our most dangerous players in a long while.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I still think the early season spark he had was mostly because of the power in his legs that he's gradually lost as the season grinds on. He's still not a physically mature athlete. I know that he cited the focus on him from opponents as one reason he wasn't getting free as often but I'm somewhat skeptical of that. He hasn't seemed to be one of our most dangerous players in a long while.

I know I clicked on the KJ thread and I read this and clicked out and remembered it was the KJ thread and I agree totally but I admit I thought at first it was about Voronkov.

 

[Cowumbus]

I know his point totals have been fine, but I have to admit that KJ hasn’t been the KJ that started the season in my opinion. At the start, he was dominating with puck possession and was a force on the puck. He was even on the PK. Then he got hurt, came back, and was largely the same for a while.

But now the last few months I don’t think KJ has been that player. Obviously know he wasn’t going to be that player every game, but I haven’t even seen it in a while. Largely quiet.

He’s had a good season and this was certainly a step in the right direction. But I think he hasn’t been the same player he started the season as.

On the bright side, you’re basically saying he’s not what he was and isn’t playing his best, yet is pacing for a 70 point season. Only 6 Jackets ever have done that before.

As major said, he probably has worn down a bit but another summer of putting on weight and having confidence should help him!

 

[CBJx614]

I still think the early season spark he had was mostly because of the power in his legs that he's gradually lost as the season grinds on. He's still not a physically mature athlete. I know that he cited the focus on him from opponents as one reason he wasn't getting free as often but I'm somewhat skeptical of that. He hasn't seemed to be one of our most dangerous players in a long while.

That's what I was gonna type out last night, he's definitely got some wear and tear going on, give him another one or two healthy off-seasons to put in some work and grow into his frame and thicken up a little...not worried yet.