Rumor: Karlsson "out there" for trade, most likely an off-season move

[Empoleon8771]

I mean yes but Karlsson not panning out is still on Dubas.

Dubas is genuinely terrible.

No, Karlsson panning out is on Mike Sullivan. Because it's Sullivan's system that caused Karlsson to not pan out with the Penguins.

 

[Zbynek]

No, Karlsson panning out is on Mike Sullivan. Because it's Sullivan's system that caused Karlsson to not pan out with the Penguins.

Dubas spent an entire offseason fondling Mike Grier's balls to set up an EK65 trade from the San Jose Sharks to the Pittsburgh Mike Sullivans.

Sure Sullivan is a problem also but this is on Dubas first and foremost.

 

[Ratbath]

Literally the first two responses lmao:

Confirmed with Link: Thread 'Kyle Dubas named President of Hockey Operations'

Jun 1, 2023

"Dubas, 37, will oversee all aspects of the Penguins hockey operations department including establishing the strategic vision and philosophy for the franchise."

Penguins Name Kyle Dubas President of Hockey Operations | Pittsburgh Penguins

The Pittsburgh Penguins announced today that Kyle Dubas has been named President of Hockey Operations. Dubas becomes just the second person to hold this position in the history of the franchise.

www.nhl.com

• Lust for Life
• Replies: 1,345
• Forum: Pittsburgh Penguins

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I was replying to you trying to own someone online and failing miserably. Quoting him barely caring about the hire was not a clever response and you keep doubling down.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Dubas spent an entire offseason fondling Mike Grier's balls to set up an EK65 trade from the San Jose Sharks to the Pittsburgh Mike Sullivans.

Sure Sullivan is a problem also but this is on Dubas first and foremost.

We're now on 3 GMs in a row that keep bringing in players that continuously underperform on this team under Sullivan, but yeah it's totally Dubas' fault.

 

[Zbynek]

We're now on 3 GMs in a row that keep bringing in players that continuously underperform on this team under Sullivan, but yeah it's totally Dubas' fault.

It's not one or the other, it's both man.

Point being EK65 was Dubas' #1 focus the 2023 offseason without properly thinking through other boneheaded moves like Jarry/Graves. Dubas, being the rat politician he is, was only focused on that first press conference where he could announce EK65 as a Penguin.

Dubas is a freaking moron.

And while I think we'll still salvage some assets out of EK65 we're absolutely going to retain some salary and not get anywhere near what we spent on him.

 

[KrisLeturnover]

Nikishin is coming over and that is gonna be amazing but he's a LHD so he's not gonna be paired with Slavin. He is probably more of an Orlov replacement in that respect. Burns might hang it up so there would be space for both.

Slavin - Karlsson (zomg!)
Nikishin - Chatfield
Ghostbear - Walker

And then you have Morrow who might get a look as well. I could see a scenario where the Canes move off of Walker eventually. Maybe not this off-season but next

Slavic would be the perfect partner for Karlsson. I could honestly see that working out swimmingly.

 

[TheBeard]

EK65 with retention to sharks for FC

 

[SomeDude]

EK65 with retention to sharks for FC

I can only assume FC = Freakin' Celebrini.

I'll take it.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

Pens should have never traded for Karlsson in the first place..

 

[VaporTrail]

Wow you mean things didn't work out in Pittsburgh? I can't imagine why.

 

[voyageur]

Karlsson dominated in the 4 Nations. He's still an incredible player. He just needs a system that allows him to play to his strengths.

I feel like Detroit on the 2nd pairing with Edvinsson would be a good landing spot for him.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

I mean yes but Karlsson not panning out is still on Dubas.

Nope. A Hail Mary not working out doesn't mean it's not the correct play to make.

And while I think we'll still salvage some assets out of EK65 we're absolutely going to retain some salary and not get anywhere near what we spent on him.

Why wouldn't we get anywhere near what we spent on him? We barely spent anything on him.

 

[cowboy82nd]

Pass on paying $10M for the next 2 years for a guy to play 2nd pairing behind Seider.

Especially considering Edvinsson is up for a new contract in that time.

Yeah, but if Pittsburgh retains, it won't be $10 million per year.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Yeah, but if Pittsburgh retains, it won't be $10 million per year.

If PIT retains, it increases the value, which Karlsson ain't worth.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Slavic would be the perfect partner for Karlsson. I could honestly see that working out swimmingly.

Yes which is interesting because Slavs and Swedes don’t always get along

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Guy is brutal now, someone would want him?

 

[hamzarocks]

1) Signing Jarry was not one of Dubas' biggest moves.
2) Of course he'd trade Karlsson in a heartbeat. He is trying to gain assets for the future, Karlsson is not a part of the core, and the 1st + that Karlsson will return in the offseason will be useful.

Yeah, I can't believe Dubas traded Smith away for ... *checks notes* a better deal than the one he acquired him for.

28. I'll be conservative here.

It depends on how picky Karlsson is. If he wants to go to a team with a decent chance of winning, we'll say 8.

All 8 of them.

If you do that thought exercise, it becomes obvious that the only thing that would hold the Penguins back from getting a 1st + is if Karlsson has only one or two teams he'd waive for.


Current ownership did not hire Hextall and Burke.

what team do you have giving EK 20M for 2 years?

He hasnt been worth that in a long time.

Karlsson at 40-50% retained can get a 1st + B prospect level deal

Karlsson at 100% is a pure cap dump

 

[OtherThingsILike]

what team do you have giving EK 20M for 2 years?

Nearly any team would if given the opportunity. There are a few who wouldn't because they have more pressing needs, but just about any team could use him.

He hasnt been worth that in a long time.

He's close enough to being worth it that in this hypothetical free agency scenario, teams would view the slight overpay as being worth it to acquire him without giving up any assets.

Karlsson at 40-50% retained can get a 1st + B prospect level deal

Sure, and I expect that to happen in the offseason.

Karlsson at 100% is a pure cap dump

This is contradictory. A player who has enough value at $6M for two seasons and who could return a 1st + does not have negative value, or even zero value, at $10M. It's only two seasons, not seven.
It's just that if Karlsson is not retained on, the return is less.

 

[hamzarocks]

Nearly any team would if given the opportunity. There are a few who wouldn't because they have more pressing needs, but just about any team could use him.

He's close enough to being worth it that in this hypothetical free agency scenario, teams would view the slight overpay as being worth it to acquire him without giving up any assets.

Sure, and I expect that to happen in the offseason.

This is contradictory. A player who has enough value at $6M for two seasons and who could return a 1st + does not have negative value, or even zero value, at $10M. It's only two seasons, not seven.
It's just that if Karlsson is not retained on, the return is less.

You mention no teams and just say a blank statement lol. How many teams have caproom to fit in a player with the flaws EK65 has at almost 10M. Very few if any, let alone contending teams which would be the ones who would even consider selling a 1st for him compared to rebuilding teams.

Karlsson at 9.8M vs Karlsson at 5.8M is two different price points. His status at 9.8M on a team would be expected to be a #1D which he is no where close to capable of being

At 5.8M he can be a #3D and this allows for better internal cap management and allocation.

Karlsson is worth 5-6M based on his play these past 2 years. Why would a team trade any assets for him when he makes 4-5M more than he should? To get an actual NHL trade you retain the overpaid asset down to its fair value pt and then get a solid return.

 

[KevinRedkey]

A Slavin/Karlsson pair would be a treat to watch in the playoffs, so I hope he goes there.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

You mention no teams and just say a blank statement lol. How many teams have caproom to fit in a player with the flaws EK65 has at almost 10M.

As of right now, PuckPedia's projection for next season has every team except the Avalanche with over $10M in cap space. So 31 of 32 teams.
If you want to argue that teams will have other needs as well and think I should only count teams with $20M projected for next season, 20 of 32 teams are projected to have over $20M in space for next season.
Which of these teams do you want me to pick?

Very few if any, let alone contending teams which would be the ones who would even consider selling a 1st for him compared to rebuilding teams.

'Contending' is vague, because sometimes teams can be in a playoff spot but not be considered contenders. However, for teams with $20M in projected cap space who are currently in a playoff spot, there are 10:

Wild, Panthers, Stars, Kings, Red Wings, Capitals, Maple Leafs, Flames, Hurricanes, Jets.

Source: NHL Teams by Salary Cap, NHL Contracts and Cap Hit | Puckpedia

Karlsson at 9.8M vs Karlsson at 5.8M is two different price points. His status at 9.8M on a team would be expected to be a #1D which he is no where close to capable of being

Give him the right partner and he could absolutely be a #1D. He still plays, on average, over 23 minutes a night.

 

[hamzarocks]

As of right now, PuckPedia's projection for next season has every team except the Avalanche with over $10M in cap space. So 31 of 32 teams.
If you want to argue that teams will have other needs as well and think I should only count teams with $20M projected for next season, 20 of 32 teams are projected to have over $20M in space for next season.
Which of these teams do you want me to pick?

'Contending' is vague, because sometimes teams can be in a playoff spot but not be considered contenders. However, for teams with $20M in projected cap space who are currently in a playoff spot, there are 10:

Wild, Panthers, Stars, Kings, Red Wings, Capitals, Maple Leafs, Flames, Hurricanes, Jets.

Source: NHL Teams by Salary Cap, NHL Contracts and Cap Hit | Puckpedia

Give him the right partner and he could absolutely be a #1D. He still plays, on average, over 23 minutes a night.

Which of those contending teams you mentioned would give assets for Karlsson? Which at 9.8M?

Detroit maybe if it works LT cap wise could pursue a trade *they have Edvidsson soon coming for deal so that could be a hitch

Hurricanes as well if they dont extend Rantanen may look at EK at full value.

Besides those 2 I dont see any teams looking to add him at his current AAV and a lot would pass even at premium retention.

Just b/c you play 23 mins a night does not mean you would be capable of playing those minutes well on a contending team.

He would see a reduction in his TOI on a better and deeper team. He can't matchup vs top lines for a playoff team at this stage and would be suited to play 2nd pairing and top PP

 

[KrisLetAngry]

For me, it depends on what pick he is attaching to Gallagher. For example, would you take: Karlsson (2mil retained) for Gallagher +2nd (2026)?

That's better than sitting on him for two years. That being said, with the Pens picking up his 5mil bonus and retention, I think they can get a better return. 4 Nations showed he can still be a really good player on a good team.

I think as a Pens fan I expect way more than that.
Karlsson most likely will only go to a playoff team. So I don't think he will waive.

But I'd be expecting a 1st + if it was Gallagher. I saw the follow up convo but I do believe Karlsson retained anywhere from 3 to 5 making him a 5 to 7 million RD is very very attractive.

2.5 seasons at that cap hit looks really good to a team. When the free agent RD market may only be Ekblad. Quite frankly Karlsson is better than Ekblad. He's better than Montour who went to Seattle. Teams will be lining up.

We're now on 3 GMs in a row that keep bringing in players that continuously underperform on this team under Sullivan, but yeah it's totally Dubas' fault.

Agreed.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

Which of those contending teams you mentioned would give assets for Karlsson? Which at 9.8M?

It depends on a few things, but the Flames and Jets would give at least a 3rd.
The Capitals might, depending on what they do with Chychrun.
The Maple Leafs might, depending on what they do with Marner and Tavares.
The Panthers have no RDs signed for next season, so they might, depending on what they do with Ekblad.
The only obviously bad fits for Karlsson at full cap are the Stars, because they have players to sign, the Wild, because they just re-signed Faber and still have Spurgeon, and the Kings, because Karlsson is redundant with Doughty still there.

Besides those 2 I dont see any teams looking to add him at his current AAV and a lot would pass even at premium retention.

With premium retention, you add the Stars to the above teams, as while they do have players to sign, Karlsson at $5M could easily be fit in.

Just b/c you play 23 mins a night does not mean you would be capable of playing those minutes well on a contending team.

Just because you're playing poorly on a bad team with no motivation to plat well, doesn't mean you would play poorly on a good team with actual motivation to play well. And also, with a decent partner.

 

[Sideline]

I think as a Pens fan I expect way more than that.
Karlsson most likely will only go to a playoff team. So I don't think he will waive.

But I'd be expecting a 1st + if it was Gallagher. I saw the follow up convo but I do believe Karlsson retained anywhere from 3 to 5 making him a 5 to 7 million RD is very very attractive.

2.5 seasons at that cap hit looks really good to a team. When the free agent RD market may only be Ekblad. Quite frankly Karlsson is better than Ekblad. He's better than Montour who went to Seattle. Teams will be lining up.


Agreed.

I agree with all of this. Too many people are anchored on the injury prone 21-22 EK65 as an 11.5MM cap hit with 5 years left on his contract. Dubas has shown that he will retain salary and take back bad money contracts to maximize trade value.

Karlsson looked very good a week ago playing in the highest level hockey that's been played anywhere on Earth in the last decade. He's been consistently healthy for 2.5 years. The available talent at his position is very thin. You can get him at a 5MM AAV which is lower than any potential UFA top 4 defenseman.

If a team needs an offensive defenseman they will not find a better option.