Speculation: KARLSSON Megathread | Part III | MOD Warning Edition

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

How is it great to hear about how he'll be back to Norris form with another team?

I mean, I'm really happy for him personally, but this makes me a whole lot sadder about losing him. And yes, we are losing him.

Just happy for him that he should be able to get back to what he was pre-surgery. I hate to see injuries ruin careers like we've seen so many times before and as much as he did get it together after adjusting to his limitations last year, he looked frustrated that his body wouldn't respond the way he's used to.

I'm not going to wish his career go down the crapper just because our owner can't afford to properly run an NHL franchise. This is on Melnyk, not anyone else.

 

[Sensung]

Selling the team now would be incredibly stupid on Melnyk's part.

It isn't something that will be happening soon I don't think.

Why?

Projections can be made and accounted for in the sale.

 

[Tundraman]

The reason EK is still here may not just be because of what teams are offering Dorion in trade but maybe it's more about what other teams are willing to offer EK himself.

The few teams in the mix might not mind a one season rental with the option to extend if things work out or possibly a short up-front extension but what if they aren't willing to pony up $11M to $12M per season for 7-8 years (latter sign and trade) with a full nmc. Also what if EK expects a big front loaded deal like Tavares but no one is biting? The longer it takes it's just as likely that EK is edging his bets by letting it float that he doesn't really want to move. Maybe the grass (cash) isn't greener on the other side but it's pretty green over the Melnyk septic tank after all.

 

[Ray Kinsella]

Would be pretty odd for Melnyk to take out that loan and then a month later sell the team.

Well, he has a tendency to be odd. So here’s hoping...!

 

[Sensung]

The reason EK is still here may not just be because of what teams are offering Dorion in trade but maybe it's more about what other teams are willing to offer EK himself.

The few teams in the mix might not mind a one season rental with the option to extend if things work out or possibly a short up-front extension but what if they aren't willing to pony up $11M to $12M per season for 7-8 years (latter sign and trade) with a full nmc. Also what if EK expects a big front loaded deal like Tavares but no one is biting? The longer it takes it's just as likely that EK is edging his bets by letting it float that he doesn't really want to move. Maybe the grass (cash) isn't greener on the other side but it's pretty green over the Melnyk septic tank after all.

What do you think EK would get as a UFA?

 

[harrisb]

The reason EK is still here may not just be because of what teams are offering Dorion in trade but maybe it's more about what other teams are willing to offer EK himself.

The few teams in the mix might not mind a one season rental with the option to extend if things work out or possibly a short up-front extension but what if they aren't willing to pony up $11M to $12M per season for 7-8 years (latter sign and trade) with a full nmc. Also what if EK expects a big front loaded deal like Tavares but no one is biting? The longer it takes it's just as likely that EK is edging his bets by letting it float that he doesn't really want to move. Maybe the grass (cash) isn't greener on the other side but it's pretty green over the Melnyk septic tank after all.

The lawn dies over my septic tank every year

 

[Ice-Tray]

Total speculation incoming...

I think one thing is certain, the organization is not shut down for the summer. We have seen a few hires, a few Bellville signings, and we can rest assured that things are happening behind closed doors.

We have 4 large pieces of roster business to attend to (EK, Stone, Ceci, Duchene) and undoubtably these are being discussed and planned for.

The quiet to me seems to indicate that there may be some serious business related goings on happening. The extra level of vault-like silence is not usual for regular summer negotiations and signings, and seems to indicate that something unusual is going on.

If a sale is being negotiated it would make sense that massive player deals, and personnel hires would be involved to some degree, as the incoming party would want to make sure that the team isn't negatively impacted before taking over. EK has not moved, PD allegedly has his asks sent out and is not deviating, but that very well may be a plan B, after signing EK. Signing EK may also be a chip in negotiations over the team value, and thus no one is speaking, and nothing is happening yet.

Who knows, but it is intriguing. Once you get past the motion that everyone has gone to the cottage, it would seem like something serious/unusual is underway.

 

[Sensung]

Total speculation incoming...

I think one thing is certain, the organization is not shut down for the summer. We have seen a few hires, a few Bellville signings, and we can rest assured that things are happening behind closed doors.

We have 4 large pieces of roster business to attend to (EK, Stone, Ceci, Duchene) and undoubtably these are being discussed and planned for.

The quiet to me seems to indicate that there may be some serious business related goings on happening. The extra level of vault-like silence is not usual for regular summer negotiations and signings, and seems to indicate that something unusual is going on.

If a sale is being negotiated it would make sense that massive player deals, and personnel hires would be involved to some degree, as the incoming party would want to make sure that the team isn't negatively impacted before taking over. EK has not moved, PD allegedly has his asks sent out and is not deviating, but that very well may be a plan B, after signing EK. Signing EK may also be a chip in negotiations over the team value, and thus no one is speaking, and nothing is happening yet.

Who knows, but it is intriguing. Once you get past the motion that everyone has gone to the cottage, it would seem like something serious/unusual is underway.

This has been obvious to anyone who has been paying attention for quite some time.

 

[Ray Kinsella]

The lawn dies over my septic tank every year

Mine turns yellow over the opening but not every summer. Perhaps it depends on what we eat every other winter. lol
It grows like mad over my weeping tiles however.

uhh... just to remain on topic... Karlsson.

 

[Nash]

Karlsson: Ankle is 110 per cent, 'it's that good'

 

[armani]

Total speculation incoming...

I think one thing is certain, the organization is not shut down for the summer. We have seen a few hires, a few Bellville signings, and we can rest assured that things are happening behind closed doors.

We have 4 large pieces of roster business to attend to (EK, Stone, Ceci, Duchene) and undoubtably these are being discussed and planned for.

The quiet to me seems to indicate that there may be some serious business related goings on happening. The extra level of vault-like silence is not usual for regular summer negotiations and signings, and seems to indicate that something unusual is going on.

If a sale is being negotiated it would make sense that massive player deals, and personnel hires would be involved to some degree, as the incoming party would want to make sure that the team isn't negatively impacted before taking over. EK has not moved, PD allegedly has his asks sent out and is not deviating, but that very well may be a plan B, after signing EK. Signing EK may also be a chip in negotiations over the team value, and thus no one is speaking, and nothing is happening yet.

Who knows, but it is intriguing. Once you get past the motion that everyone has gone to the cottage, it would seem like something serious/unusual is underway.

Or there is a gag order wrt the entire shit show the biggest of which is #65. We can only hope and pray that you are right though.

 

[tony d]

To me, I think Karlsson only gets traded if he agrees to an extension with the team he gets traded to. As good as he is no team will trade that many assets for a rental.

 

[Melgene Eunyk]

I never saw Erik the same after that fateful uber ride. Bleeding me dry, he took me by surprise.

I called Tom with my eyes set on lebreton. Why, tell me why, can't we go all in.

Sens fans, my wonderful sens fans, where have we gone wrong. If only I could forgo my merlot.

I pledge to win, but only if you pour your cash in. Now is the time where we take the league by surprise.

- Regards,
Gene

 

[Tundraman]

What do you think EK would get as a UFA?

Everything changes with another season under his belt. Teams would have to re-evaluate his performance this next season prior to his becoming a UFA and the likelihood that he'd play that way for a full 7 years (either good or bad). Any doubts about his ankle or leg or whatever will be removed if that hasn't already happened.

=====================================

Imo EK will continue to play great no matter how the team does in the standings if he's here to play out the string until the trade deadline when Dorion will have to take what he can get to avoid the Tavares scenario. EK may have had trouble turning to one side especially in the early part of last year but even then you couldn't deny his straight on speed when he often left guys behind while skating up the ice with the puck. His vision on the pp and passing are among the top in the league. His ability to block off much bigger men along the boards and take the puck back in the defensive zone is way underrated. Is that worth $11M-$12M to some teams for 7 years possibly highly front loaded? I don't really know but on a good team that has finishers who can actually score when he dishes out the puck, EK puts them way over the top and quickly brings them a few cups imo.

If I had one piece of advice for EK it would be this:
If you are staying to play out the string until you become a UFA then play your game but don't push the play by gambling when you are down a goal or two. Let the other guys do that, it will probably help your personal plus-minus if you back off at the opposing blue line, play it safe and remove some of those terrible highlight flubs. It looks terrible when you try to hold the line but fail with no support and it leads to a goal. A forward may have failed to come back, the other D may be too slow to cover or the goalie might suck big time but very few will see that. The close up will show that you got beat at the opposing blue line while making a risky play and those truly bad highlights never go away. It doesn't matter if you are successful 80% - 90% of the time unless those plays lead to a goal for the Sens and a win no one will remember them later but if it leads to a goal against you become the goat no matter what other breakdowns there are on the play. Taking those higher risk plays out of your game might not make the team more successful but I'll bet it raises the opinion of you by casual observers who often overemphasize those plays and it will probably increase your chances of getting the deal you want elsewhere. Everyone knows what you can do offensively and you'll get your points so think of yourself and play defensively smart if you don't have a long term deal signed beyond the coming season.

 

[The Lewler]

This has been obvious to anyone who has been paying attention for quite some time.

It's not obvious. It's highly speculative and crippled by confirmation bias.

I share the confirmation bias, but still.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Why?

Projections can be made and accounted for in the sale.

But that's playing a game of roulette. You never know exactly how much a big construction project will cost, how much revenue it will take in, when exactly it will be ready...etc.

Buyers are already putting up a ton of cash...buying now while adding on all the future value is taking all the risk (especially if that soil is worse than originally thought, we we turn into sinkhole city again), while Melynk would get all the projected value/profit. No buyer would want to do that.

 

[Tundraman]

But that's playing a game of roulette. You never know exactly how much a big construction project will cost, how much revenue it will take in, when exactly it will be ready...etc.

Buyers are already putting up a ton of cash...buying now while adding on all the future value is taking all the risk (especially if that soil is worse than originally thought, we we turn into sinkhole city again), while Melynk would get all the projected value/profit. No buyer would want to do that.

It was reported that the cleanup cost will be deducted from the agreed land purchase price between the buyers and the NCC so that shouldn't affect the project.

As far as financial risk, I would be totally against any of it falling on the city. I don't want another Lansdowne. The city shouldn't have to put up a cent although I'm not against foregoing some building/land taxes as long as the builders pay for any required enhancements to area services leading to the property in exchange.

As it's been well reported the main risk for the partners including Melnyk is the possibility of a glut of Condos competing with this project driving down demand and prices. Building 4000 units over a decade may be fine but there is real discussion of another 3000 competing units just around Lebreton and thousands more within a short commute which have the potential to be built in the same time window. I can't blame Melnyk for at the very least being concerned.
========================

If some see this project as a way for Melnyk to get rich or cause a change of ownership which will permit them to suddenly spend on players like EK don't get any false dreams. No matter what happens attendance will be the driving force. If that improves because of Lebreton's more central location then any owner will spend but don't expect some white knight to come in and drop millions every year because the fans expect it and he won't say or do anything to stop the bleeding. One or 2 years of goodwill spending to please the fans by a new owner will only go so far. It's a business so it has to make money or it goes under.

 

[Sensung]

It was reported that the cleanup cost will be deducted from the agreed land purchase price between the buyers and the NCC so that shouldn't affect the project.

As far as financial risk, I would be totally against any of it falling on the city. I don't want another Lansdowne. The city shouldn't have to put up a cent although I'm not against foregoing some building/land taxes as long as the builders pay for any required enhancements to area services leading to the property in exchange.

As it's been well reported the main risk for the partners including Melnyk is the possibility of a glut of Condos competing with this project driving down demand and prices. Building 4000 units over a decade may be fine but there is real discussion of another 3000 competing units just around Lebreton and thousands more within a short commute which have the potential to be built in the same time window. I can't blame Melnyk for at the very least being concerned.
========================

If some see this project as a way for Melnyk to get rich or cause a change of ownership which will permit them to suddenly spend on players like EK don't get any false dreams. No matter what happens attendance will be the driving force. If that improves because of Lebreton's more central location then any owner will spend but don't expect some white knight to come in and drop millions every year because the fans expect it and he won't say or do anything to stop the bleeding. One or 2 years of goodwill spending to please the fans by a new owner will only go so far. It's a business so it has to make money or it goes under.

New owners will spend

Fans will fill new arena

 

[Tundraman]

New owners will spend

Fans will fill new arena

I'd say it this way

IF/When Fans will fill new arena
ANY owner will spend

I don't know where people get the idea that most team owners see their team as a philanthropic project. Like I said a new owner might be willing to spend just to build up the product but that won't continue if things don't improve.

 

[Sensung]

I'd say it this way

IF/When Fans will fill new arena
ANY owner will spend

I don't know where people get the idea that most team owners see their team as a philanthropic project. Like I said a new owner might be willing to spend just to build up the product but that won't continue if things don't improve.

New owners will spend to rebuild the fanbase.

Fans will return to thank new ownership for getting rid of Melnyk.

 

[Tundraman]

New owners will spend to rebuild the fanbase.

Fans will return to thank new ownership for getting rid of Melnyk.

Let's see how many more buy full season tickets. A new Arena will fill up at least short term just because it's new but walk up crowds are fickle. This has never been about Melnyk. Excuses are a dime a dozen, real cheap..... and I have my own.

I agree that new owners would spend at first to rebuild the fanbase it's a very predictable action but like I said what do you think happens if they don't get lasting results. They would have to cut costs too.

I'm one who believes that accessibility is a big factor and closeness to the LRT and downtown should help. It's not my money but Melnyk has taken the route that he will only spend if the money comes first or at least he has a guarantee of recovery in the playoffs. I'm tempted to say put that to the test. Spend first on a better team and see if the fans come. His counter argument might be that he couldn't fill the arena during playoff games so while the arena is in Kanata it seems he has a valid argument. Like I said it's not my money so talk is cheap. If it was my cash I'd have to 1st understand why fans didn't show up in a close playoff series when they should have been fighting for tickets before banking on them filling the Kanata arena for 41 regular season games again while I risk losing $15M per season on guaranteed multi-year contracts.

 

[Que]

If you build it, they will come.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Let's see how many more buy full season tickets. A new Arena will fill up at least short term just because it's new but walk up crowds are fickle. This has never been about Melnyk. Excuses are a dime a dozen, real cheap..... and I have my own.

I agree that new owners would spend at first to rebuild the fanbase it's a very predictable action but like I said what do you think happens if they don't get lasting results. They would have to cut costs too.

I'm one who believes that accessibility is a big factor and closeness to the LRT and downtown should help. It's not my money but Melnyk has taken the route that he will only spend if the money comes first or at least he has a guarantee of recovery in the playoffs. I'm tempted to say put that to the test. Spend first on a better team and see if the fans come. His counter argument might be that he couldn't fill the arena during playoff games so while the arena is in Kanata it seems he has a valid argument. Like I said it's not my money so talk is cheap. If it was my cash I'd have to 1st understand why fans didn't show up in a close playoff series when they should have been fighting for tickets before banking on them filling the Kanata arena for 41 regular season games again while I risk losing $15M per season on guaranteed multi-year contracts.

Solid post. EM defiantly sunk his own ship here, but there is more to the story here. Hopefully a new downtown arena will solve accessibility issues, but undoubtably tickets will be more expensive, and while new ownership would be smart to spend first (that doesn't mean a cap team right away, but more fleshing out the organization for certain) the fanbase is going to have to fill the arena/spend more on tickets.

There is potential to continue to be a small market budget team under new ownership, just a far less acrimonious relationship hopefully.

 

[ACLEVERNAME]

lolwut
this team has been a rollercoaster since 2011

When you look at the rest of the league, not really no.

Even with Scrooge McDuck we've been in a fairly average/good place all in all. Grass is always greener tho...

 

[Sensung]

Let's see how many more buy full season tickets. A new Arena will fill up at least short term just because it's new but walk up crowds are fickle. This has never been about Melnyk. Excuses are a dime a dozen, real cheap..... and I have my own.

This is 100% about Melnyk.