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Value of: Karlsson at $5 million to Ottawa

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Empoleon8771 said:
Ottawa isn't trying to be a basement team. That's the point of trading for Karlsson, to attempt to not be a basement team.

I also don't see how Karlsson at $5 million is a "high paying vet" either.
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He sucks, that's why he is a high paying vet.
 
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Xspyrit said:
Exactly, Ottawa is not tanking. Right now, Ottawa has the 5th worst PDO (2nd worst at 5v5), Ullmark is not making the saves and the shooters have been snake bitten or not converting enough (bottom-6 sucks offensively too). That is the problem because they do good things on the ice, like carrying the play most games. Look at this at Even Strength :

CF/60 : 6th
CA/60 : 5th
CF% : 3rd
CF/60 : 3rd
CA/60 : 6th
CF% : 3rd
xGF/60 : 20th
xGA/60 : 4th
xGF% : 10th

Ullmark needs to be much better and the guys need to stop gripping their sticks too hard but that being said, I was never really confident in how they built the bottom-6 (Perron, Amadio, Cousins, Gregor additions)



At the same time, different owner and management. Alfie came back too.
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7th in the atlantic, 4 game losing streak, not looking that solid. Sure have your fantasy.
 
Xspyrit said:
It would be "high paid vet" lol



Based on your last 2 posts, I'm not sure you understand much of anything (like advances stats), so yeah sure, I am "fantasizing"
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We can come back after the season and see how your stats worked out. Doesn't look too good at the moment. Just a friendly reminder.
 
Xspyrit said:
Ok so let’s work from the ground up. What did you understand exactly in the post you quoted?
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I'm not that interested in the stats themselves, i'm just curious can stats be used to predict outcomes.
 
If Karlsson demands a trade to Ottawa, maybe we would trade for him im that context (i.e Pittsburgh bends over backwards to make it work). Short of that? Makes absolutely no sense to me.
 
DudeWhereIsMakar said:
Nick Jensen for Erik Karlsson no retention.
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Jensen has been exceptional. There is zero chance Ottawa does that.

Karlsson has little to no trade value, even at 5M. He has a NMC, and teams will not want his term with his inconsistent play. Karlsson @ 5M to Ottawa is an offseason trade if Brady asks out, and Ottawa feels compelled that they need to do something to excite season ticket holders. In that case, it would probably be something like a 3rd round pick and the rights to Travis Hamonic....and even that is generous.

The value in the above deal isn't what comes back to Pittsburgh, it's getting half of Karlsson's contract off the books, which gives them cap flexibility that they can use to either acquire useful players for the rebuild or acquire bad players with picks+prospects attached to them. By freeing up 5M in 25-26 and 26-27, Pittsburgh could probably use that space to take bad contracts that would get them 2nd or 3rd round picks each year.

Someone else mentioned Zub for Karlsson @ 5M. The only way I see that happening is if they have given up on Zub staying healthy. Zub is the better player right now. Although, it wouldn't surprise me to see Karlsson turn it up in the right scenario (on a legit top contender, or under Alfredsson in Ottawa). It seems like he isn't trying.
 
Empoleon8771 said:
Ottawa isn't trying to be a basement team. That's the point of trading for Karlsson, to attempt to not be a basement team.

I also don't see how Karlsson at $5 million is a "high paying vet" either.
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Because that worked so well for San Jose and Pittsburgh
 
If i'm the Sens, i'd rather have Zub @ 4.6 than Karlsson @ 5.

And if i'm the Pens, i'd rather have Karlsson @ 10 than Zub at nearly the same.


Beyond the nostalgia factor, i just really don't see the benefit for either team. Karlsson is just right back to being such a toxic asset. Never made any sense for Dubas to take that on and actually pay for it, after one "good" year where he scored a lot. I'm not sure how he digs his way out of that hole, but unless the Senators are dumping a bunch more bad cap the other way or something, i just don't see how it makes any sense. And really...i don't see why they'd want to move Zub at all. They need more of what he can be when he's healthy and on his game, not less.


Maybe if it's paired with some sort of big Chabot move somewhere else? That's about the only way it'd make sense to me.
 
Has Karlsson really fallen below second pairing money? Five million USD seems like a good deal for a top 4 RHD. But I don't watch a lot of Pens games.
 
Pens put up a 6 spot against Calgary.

How does EK65 not register 1 point? Is he that far gone?
 
TheNumber4 said:
Pens put up a 6 spot against Calgary.

How does EK65 not register 1 point? Is he that far gone?
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Sometimes you get bounces and sometimes you don't. He's definitely slowed down from his Norris trophy year, but he's still got 4 points in his last 3 games and pacing for 50 on the year.
 
Sideline said:
Sometimes you get bounces and sometimes you don't. He's definitely slowed down from his Norris trophy year, but he's still got 4 points in his last 3 games and pacing for 50 on the year.
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Sold. 1st and 3rd for Karlsson at 50%?
 
Xspyrit said:
Exactly, Ottawa is not tanking. Right now, Ottawa has the 5th worst PDO (2nd worst at 5v5), Ullmark is not making the saves and the shooters have been snake bitten or not converting enough (bottom-6 sucks offensively too). That is the problem because they do good things on the ice, like carrying the play most games. Look at this at Even Strength :

CF/60 : 6th
CA/60 : 5th
CF% : 3rd
CF/60 : 3rd
CA/60 : 6th
CF% : 3rd
xGF/60 : 20th
xGA/60 : 4th
xGF% : 10th

Ullmark needs to be much better and the guys need to stop gripping their sticks too hard but that being said, I was never really confident in how they built the bottom-6 (Perron, Amadio, Cousins, Gregor additions)



At the same time, different owner and management. Alfie came back too.
Click to expand...
They aren't tanking in the pure sense of the term but they also aren't making the playoffs.

That being said EK going home won't help.
 
elmaco said:
I'm not that interested in the stats themselves, i'm just curious can stats be used to predict outcomes.
Click to expand...

Yes it does but over larger sample sizes. If a team constantly outshot and outchance the other teams, they will end up winning more often than not. It's actually quite logic. Of course, maths are pure logic.

wetcoast said:
They aren't tanking in the pure sense of the term but they also aren't making the playoffs.

That being said EK going home won't help.
Click to expand...

It depends, at 5 M$ over Zub who is injured? That would actually prevent us from having to play Travis Hamonic? Absolutely then.

Sens D-men only have 32 ES Pts in 27 games (in comparison, Avs D-men have 61 ES Pts in 29 games). Karlsson still leads the NHL in ES Pts since 2022-23 (over Hughes and Morrissey, Makar and Josi)

Seriously, I would do Karlsson and Beauvillier for Perron, Amadio and Zub

Sanderson - Karlsson
Chabot - Jensen
Kleven - JBD

Don't think the Pens would though
 
Xspyrit said:
Exactly, Ottawa is not tanking. Right now, Ottawa has the 5th worst PDO (2nd worst at 5v5), Ullmark is not making the saves and the shooters have been snake bitten or not converting enough (bottom-6 sucks offensively too). That is the problem because they do good things on the ice, like carrying the play most games. Look at this at Even Strength :

CF/60 : 6th
CA/60 : 5th
CF% : 3rd
CF/60 : 3rd
CA/60 : 6th
CF% : 3rd
xGF/60 : 20th
xGA/60 : 4th
xGF% : 10th

Ullmark needs to be much better and the guys need to stop gripping their sticks too hard but that being said, I was never really confident in how they built the bottom-6 (Perron, Amadio, Cousins, Gregor additions)
Click to expand...

This didn't age well. The Sens are still below 0.500 with a negative goal differential.
 
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