Player Discussion Kaiden Guhle

[junyab]

I can see Guhle getting a Marino type deal - 6x$4.8M

 

[Trabdy2]

I think Guhle is going to be north of 6M on a long term deal. Somewhere in the range of 6.25-7.5M.

 

[CDN24]

Guhle is a very impt contract to get right. Just like Suzuki's deal kind of set the comparable for guys like Cole and Slaf at F. The Guhle contract is going to influence the 2nd contract of other high potential D like Reinbacher and depending on how they work out maybe Maillioux and Hutson. It's critical to get this one right.

 

[TT1]

i'd be rly happy with 6M ~ 6.5M for 8 years

 

[Captain Mountain]

I think Guhle is going to be north of 6M on a long term deal. Somewhere in the range of 6.25-7.5M.

I'd be shocked if it gets that high.

The obvious comp is Alex Vlasic's 4.6 x 6. Guhle's shown more offense, but if you're signing him now, then then it should be around 5 mil x 6. At 6.25-7.5M AAV, he needs to earn it with his play this season.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I'd be shocked if it gets that high.

The obvious comp is Alex Vlasic's 4.6 x 6. Guhle's shown more offense, but if you're signing him now, then then it should be around 5 mil x 6. At 6.25-7.5M AAV, he needs to earn it with his play this season.

I don’t see the hurry. We’ve got another year right?

One thing though, if his contract’s on the line his agent may push for more PP time, being used in the left side or at least factor it into negotiations if none of that changes.

 

[Captain Mountain]

I don’t see the hurry. We’ve got another year right?

One thing though, if his contract’s on the line his agent may push for more PP time, being used in the left side or at least factor it into negotiations if none of that changes.

If its a deal that makes sense for Montreal in terms of it potentially being a steal down the line, then you do it. Otherwise, you wait.

He may (should) get at least some PP2 time, but he's going to have to earn the time.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

If its a deal that makes sense for Montreal in terms of it potentially being a steal down the line, then you do it. Otherwise, you wait.

He may (should) get at least some PP2 time, but he's going to have to earn the time.

It’ll be interesting to see how the PP shakes out with Burrows leaving. Will the new guy use two blueliners or one? Hutson will eat into that time if he’s with us as well.

Assuming things stay as they are, his camp would argue pretty strongly that his numbers would be higher if he were being used properly. He’s not a RD but we keep using him there.

Anyways, we’ve got a year before we have to worry about this.

 

[Captain Mountain]

It’ll be interesting to see how the PP shakes out with Burrows leaving. Will the new guy use two blueliners or one? Hutson will eat into that time if he’s with us as well.

Assuming things stay as they are, his camp would argue pretty strongly that his numbers would be higher if he were being used properly. He’s not a RD but we keep using him there.

Anyways, we’ve got a year before we have to worry about this.

I'm not expecting to see two blueliners. There's a reason most teams only have units with one blueliner and every team has at least one consistent unit with 4F and 1D.

Arguments go back and forth, the counter argument is that playing RD is why Guhle has gotten the kind of minutes that would justify a big money contract. If he was the 2LD, he would not be in line for even what Vlasic got. Its in Montreal's best interest to see what he can do in different situations though, assuming he earns a shot in them

 

[yianik]

It really makes sense for both us and Guhle to see how most of the season goes before we discuss contract. This talk of $6M a year long term is premature. Let him get his year 3 mostly in.

 

[Redux91]

I don’t see the hurry. We’ve got another year right?

We do,
And they are signing him to an extension THIS summer still anyway
It's how pro sports usually does things, extensions mostly get done even WITH 1 year left on original deals
Not hard to see why too
Management like to jump early on these things if they can help it and if they really like the player

But people thinking he's getting 6-7M is just... WOW right now lol

 

[TT1]

Well I don't think he's too far behind Sanderson and he got 8M

Last season Guhle averaged 18:30 TOI at ES (only behind Matheson who averaged 18:54), Sanderson averaged 17:17 TOI @ ES (behind Zub/Chychrun/Chabot), Guhle has averaged ~64% d-zone starts in his first 2 seasons, Sanderson ~55% d-zone starts

Sanderson averaged 3 mins of PP time per game, Guhle 16 secs (that's the biggest difference, that said you could say this is advantageous for us if we wanna lock him up long term, his true production is being repressed)

Sanderson averaged 2:56 on the PK and Guhle averaged 2:02

Very similar usage across the board other than PP and honestly I think Guhle has higher offensive upside but that upside will only be shown at ES, Hutson/Matheson will eat up the PP mins and possibly Mailloux in the future.

Anyways that's why I don't think there's that big of a gap between Sanderson and Guhle, That said the GMs/agents obviously know that too, Guhle's agent is gonna go into the negotiation using Sanderson as the main comparable.

 

[MtlSars]

Guhle is a stud and I hope is here to stay(many people willing to give him away/trade him this summer).

I am currently unwilling to sign him long term a 7-8 year upwards of 6 million. Give him 4.5 on a 4 year contract where he is still RFA at the end of it. He blocks shots, hits and altogether does what you want from a Defensemen and I believe in him but I don't think he will play 1st PP.

He's ideally a 2/3 defensemen on a great team in the NHL, either he proves me wrong and cashes in after that contract or when he's due for a raise we cash in.

The yellow is why he gets paid...

Makar makes 9, Heiskanen 8.5 Hedman makes 8m.... they pay less taxes but we shouldn't paying Guhle 7 for 40 pts in 2 season with some injuries...

I don't care what Sanderson will be paid, it's not a bad decision by the Sens necessarily but let's not emulate them....

 

[Scintillating10]

He's had several concussions. I wouldn't be too fast to lock him up long term

 

[Ieatsht4brkfst]

5 x 5.25

 

[NeptunesTrident]

8 yrs x 6.25M

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

I’d say Guhle is a more likely candidate for a bridge type deal. Something like Dach? Like the player but unlikely he goes PK on us and wins the Norris.

 

[red devil]

We do,
And they are signing him to an extension THIS summer still anyway
It's how pro sports usually does things, extensions mostly get done even WITH 1 year left on original deals
Not hard to see why too
Management like to jump early on these things if they can help it and if they really like the player

But people thinking he's getting 6-7M is just... WOW right now lol

They aren't necessarily signing him this summer, Hughes even said that they could push it to next summer depending on negotiations.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1807940763491488236

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

If he signs 8 years, I think he's getting around 5.5-6 M

Some similar dman that signed recently:

Sanderson signed for 8 years x 8 M
Vlasic signed for 6 years x 4.6 M

 

[The Great Weal]

Guhle probably wants to bet on himself having a big year this season than sign long term at 5.5/6

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

Guhle probably wants to bet on himself having a big year this season than sign long term at 5.5/6

Well at this moment he's not even worth 5m a season , so yeah he should def wait

 

[billy piton]

Xhekaj won't sign for $2M for 6 years. So your preferred narrative is flawed. How do you think that is a possibility? Come on man, you are better than that.

This is about new top 4D rates with a $92M salary cap (25/26). You're living in 2017 with a $75M cap.

Guhle is proven and is a top 4D today right now. He's been used obsessively on the D side and took on that role because he is a team player. However, he's got more to provide on the offensive side. Not like Matheson or Hutson level but more than what you think. He is our most well rounded guy on D.

you can't count on cap rising, it's pure speculation. there could be a recession and that projection goes out of window.

 

[Sorinth]

I'd personally be fine with going as high as 6.5m on an 8 year deal even though yes he hasn't "earned" that yet. But I can't see any deal being signed for less then 6 years right now because if you are going to go the bridge deal route then it just makes more sense to wait until this season plays out and then decide whether your comfortable to sign a long term deal or not.

 

[Habs Halifax]

you can't count on cap rising, it's pure speculation. there could be a recession and that projection goes out of window.

The players agents can and will look at that projected $92M cap. You can say I am doing it but not really, I'm talking about what the agents typically do.

The cap rises and it's a reality. Covid flat cap is gone and we would need a significant event to happen again. Low odds.

 

[MadMslm]

Guhle is a stud. I think he’s already the most reliable defensemen on the team. Sure he’ll make mistake, but they all do. Some nights he has dominant performances against some of the best forwards in the league.

I think he’s 78th for EV points for defensemen over the last two years. Most of the guys ahead have more games played (due to injuries) and most of them have favorable zone starts.

It’s a shame he didn’t get more offensive opportunities and chances on the PP. The team would have a better idea of where he stands pedigree wise.

I’m expecting a bridge deal, but I would gladly take a long term one. He’s a leader already and he proved he could play tough minutes with a bottom of the league team.

He’s not perfect by any means, but his progression curve has been amazing over the years. I won’t bet against him becoming a better player especially with those premium tools he has.

I believe he’s pretty unique among our prospects. Hopefully the matter is settled soon, that it’s a bridge deal or long term, I have no problem paying players what they deserve if they are good.