Player Discussion Kaapo Kakko: Part III

[chosen]

There is no chance he starts in the A and he shouldn't.

How many 18 year olds step into the NHL and look good defensively?

Forget about looking good defensively. Towards the end of the season, he was the lowest rated player in the league.

 

[MysticLeviathan]

Forget about looking good defensively. Towards the end of the season, he was the lowest rated player in the league.

Way too many plays he was unable to cover his man, some of which directly led to goals.

Maybe it’s the smaller ice surface, maybe it’s the culture, maybe the competition is just vastly inferior in the Finnish league, maybe he didn’t have to do any defending before, but he didn’t seem to have any idea what he was doing consistently to the point of being a serious problem. I’m not talking about stats, advanced or otherwise, I’m talking just the eye test. Consistently losing his man, poorly covering him while defending, and just not knowing how to safely clear the zone were massive issues throughout the season for him. While his confidence improved as the season progressed, his defensive play didn’t really seem to.

This is a crucial point in his development, and I really hope he’s able to get some some kind of coaching during the offseason with everything going on. Poor play defensively like that can keep his rear glued to the bench and further hurt his confidence, and if he doesn’t take the proper steps it can be disastrous for his long term career. I am concerned.

 

[nyr2k2]

As of early March, when Mitch Brown wrote an article about him, he was 397th out of 410 skaters in 5v5 P/60. And he was also dead last in the entire league in terms of Goals Above Replacement, if that's your cup of tea. So it's not an exaggeration to say he really struggled; obviously on the defensive side, but offensively as well. He wasn't good at a whole lot.

Obviously when you watch him you can see the skill, see the flashes of vision and creativity that make him so tantalizing. But he has a ways to go before he puts it together. I think all options should be on the table when it comes to his development moving forward.

 

[LOFIN]

Well I hope he does get coaching. Didn't Quinn state that he basically stopped talking to him at one point?

His defensive coverage is atrocious. It can be coached, I've seen that with Laine.

 

[Salzig]

Maybe I'm in the minority here, but I'm not worried about Kakko's development at all.

Yes, his defensive play has been weak all season long, but he's a 18-years-old rookie. Playing defense in the NHL is very hard and it takes strength / stamina and defensive awareness (i.e. experience) to play a sound defensive game. Any player's defensive development takes time and that's why there are so few young defensemen in the league. And players like Dahlin, who make the league right away, still have some major flaws in their defensive game.

Additionally, Kakko is a winger and therefore he doesn't need to be the best defensive forward on the ice. It would be nice, if he developed into a Marian Hossa type of player, but I think that's fairly unrealistic. As long as his defensive game won't end up as bad as Alex Semin used to be, he will be fine. He's shown his offensive potential already and I do believe that he will turn into a prolific scorer eventually.

 

[UnSandvich]

I think you can be disappointed by the season he had, while also being confident that he's gonna put things together

 

[Shesterkybomb]

I think you can be disappointed by the season he had, while also being confident that he's gonna put things together

I'd say if you were disappointed then you were expecting too much from an 18 year old player in his first year playing in North America in the best league in the world.

 

[UnSandvich]

I'd say if you were disappointed then you were expecting too much from an 18 year old player in his first year playing in North America in the best league in the world.

He didn't look good for long stretches of the season. At times he was Howden-level bad. I was hoping he'd be at least last years Chytil

 

[ETTER DE]

In all fairness he has played in front of couple of d-men with very little experience. And Trouba is not always to be trusted to make the right plays. But Kakko will learn. And DeAngelo and Fox will develop even more. I remember when I was worried that Zuccarello would be to weak to play OK defense. But with two solid players in Girardi and Klein behind him, they found a way to make it work.

 

[NYRangers16]

I honestly thought he could have put up 15-18g and 35ish points, but I also recognize players as young as him usually take a few years to develop unless we are talking about generational talents(and even they take awhile to reach their prime). Assuming proper motivation/coaching, I think he'll be fine.

Also, he was looking better just before the stoppage. You could see him trusting himself more and being more dynamic with the puck.

 

[Overcast]

I'd say if you were disappointed then you were expecting too much from an 18 year old player in his first year playing in North America in the best league in the world.

To expect a 2OA to do better than being almost dead last in the league at various metrics and look generally not so good after being touted as NHL ready isn't really sky high expectations.

Either way, a lot of the deficiencies he exhibited (defensive play and whatnot) can be taught. Not worried at all about how he will turn out.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

To expect a 2OA to do better than being almost dead last in the league at various metrics and look generally not so good after being touted as NHL ready isn't really sky high expectations.

Either way, a lot of the deficiencies he exhibited (defensive play and whatnot) can be taught. Not worried at all about how he will turn out.

He's a kid who never played in North America before. I was hopeful for him to adjust quick but there is a reason players like Kakko, Anderson, Kravtsov etc all struggle when they arrive here, the game is different here, the players are stronger, faster, more physical and depending on where they played there's less room on the ice. A guy like Kakko who was used to using his size all his life was all of a sudden not stronger than everyone. The only reason he was "nhl ready" was because he was drafted so high, he probably should have started in Hartford for a number of reasons including burning a year he didnt have to. The big problem now is that there appears to be no offseason this year for him to work on things, that might stifle his progress.

 

[Mac n Gs]

A lot of those comments about him having the worst season in NHL history were always an overreaction and skewed by his first ~30 games in the NHL. If you look at his second half of the year, his on-ice impacts are still slightly below average, but you can clearly see big improvements on his individual stats and his effect on teammates. There's still more to be desired from him, but I'm going to chalk up his play from Oct through December being due to him being an 18 year old making the jump from Liiga to the NHL.

 

[nyr2k2]

A lot of those comments about him having the worst season in NHL history were always an overreaction and skewed by his first ~30 games in the NHL. If you look at his second half of the year, his on-ice impacts are still slightly below average, but you can clearly see big improvements on his individual stats and his effect on teammates. There's still more to be desired from him, but I'm going to chalk up his play from Oct through December being due to him being an 18 year old making the jump from Liiga to the NHL.

The stats I brought up--397th out of 410 in P/60 5v5, and dead last in GAR, were current as of March 3, which was like a week before play shut down. It basically reflected the whole season to that point. So, for him to still be that bad after the whole year, he was either a) literally the f***ing worst through the first 30 games, or b) still pretty bad through the second half of the season. At various points over the second half, his game looked like it was turning a corner; then he'd look terrible again. He definitely flashed more in the second half, but overall I don't think he was much better.

I'm still fairly confident he turns into an excellent player, and there's nothing overly concerning about his performance given his age and that he came from Liiga. Still, I don't think we need to sugarcoat his performance as a rookie, which was pretty damn bad. If he was a second round pick and not the second overall, it's hard to imagine he would have played more than a handful of NHL games based on where he was in terms of his development.

JMO.

 

[SA16]

The stats I brought up--397th out of 410 in P/60 5v5, and dead last in GAR, were current as of March 3, which was like a week before play shut down. It basically reflected the whole season to that point. So, for him to still be that bad after the whole year, he was either a) literally the f***ing worst through the first 30 games, or b) still pretty bad through the second half of the season. At various points over the second half, his game looked like it was turning a corner; then he'd look terrible again. He definitely flashed more in the second half, but overall I don't think he was much better.

I'm still fairly confident he turns into an excellent player, and there's nothing overly concerning about his performance given his age and that he came from Liiga. Still, I don't think we need to sugarcoat his performance as a rookie, which was pretty damn bad. If he was a second round pick and not the second overall, it's hard to imagine he would have played more than a handful of NHL games based on where he was in terms of his development.

JMO.

It is A. He had a 37.7 CF% the first 25 games and then a 47.5% for the games after that. The scoring didn't come around at that point but he stopped being a total liability then.

 

[aufheben]

I think Howden really hurt Kakko’s stats.

 

[MysticLeviathan]

Where can I get a primer on advanced stats, what the main ones are, and how to understand them?

 

[UnSandvich]

Where can I get a primer on advanced stats, what the main ones are, and how to understand them?

If you have a subscription to The Athletic, these articles do a pretty decent job with it (and if you don't i personally think it's worth the price):

An advanced stat primer: Understanding basic hockey metrics

Hockey advanced stats primer, Part 2: How can (and should)...

 

[Shesterkybomb]

I think Howden really hurt Kakko’s stats.

His best stretch of hockey was with Howden and Lemieux.

 

[aufheben]

His best stretch of hockey was with Howden and Lemieux.

Not for the stats people are talking about.

 

[egelband]

I laughed out loud at this. Haha

 

[egelband]

I'm not disappointed in his season, it's s usually the issue with a player who is good at using his size when you draft them. He was trying to do the same stuff that got him here and players are too strong at the nhl level. I honestly see him as a comparable to Nash, his skating needs work to get to Nash level but basically the same skill set. I see him as too similar in philosophy to play with Chytil which i felt he did a lot this year without looking at the toi, both guys wanna take the puck to the net. If he gets stronger, and gets a little work on his speed, learns to use his linemates a little more effectively, all things young players do a better job of after their first year of learning the North American game, then I have no problem seeing him cracking the top 6 and becoming a 30+ goal scorer within a year or two. It's a big adjustment coming to north america and the style of game played here, from the sounds of him early on it felt like he never dumped and chased before. It's a big adjustment.

Yes. I thought he improved noticeably this season. Which is the key. Just keep getting better. When he’s on he’s a real threat down low.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Not for the stats people are talking about.

Didn't mean every time he played with them I meant that he had a stretch of about 7 or 8 games where I felt he looked his best in the season playing with those two. He struggled to establish himself for a lot of the year.

 

[Mac n Gs]

The stats I brought up--397th out of 410 in P/60 5v5, and dead last in GAR, were current as of March 3, which was like a week before play shut down. It basically reflected the whole season to that point. So, for him to still be that bad after the whole year, he was either a) literally the f***ing worst through the first 30 games, or b) still pretty bad through the second half of the season. At various points over the second half, his game looked like it was turning a corner; then he'd look terrible again. He definitely flashed more in the second half, but overall I don't think he was much better.

I'm still fairly confident he turns into an excellent player, and there's nothing overly concerning about his performance given his age and that he came from Liiga. Still, I don't think we need to sugarcoat his performance as a rookie, which was pretty damn bad. If he was a second round pick and not the second overall, it's hard to imagine he would have played more than a handful of NHL games based on where he was in terms of his development.

JMO.

I agree with you regarding his scoring, but I was mainly referring to his on-ice metrics. I wasn't trying to sugarcoat his performance, but I did want to point out the vast discrepancy in his early performance compared to his second half of the season. At the end of the day, I still think he'll develop into a consistent 75+ point winger. A lot of his issues seem related to his strength and conditioning, which can be fixed rather easily when you have the will and access to the best facilities in the world.

 

[nyr2k2]

I agree with you regarding his scoring, but I was mainly referring to his on-ice metrics. I wasn't trying to sugarcoat his performance, but I did want to point out the vast discrepancy in his early performance compared to his second half of the season. At the end of the day, I still think he'll develop into a consistent 75+ point winger. A lot of his issues seem related to his strength and conditioning, which can be fixed rather easily when you have the will and access to the best facilities in the world.

The strength and conditioning will really help, but even with that, I think it's the decision-making that needs the most work. There were so many times last year where he'd come flying down the wing and have a great chance to rip on on net, but he'd hesitate and slow down and either flop a sharp-angle wrister right into the goalie's belly, or he'd throw the puck into the middle where it was stolen, or he'd try some weak wraparound. He generated some really good scoring chances that never even ended up with a SOG because he wasn't processing things fast enough. I think this is also why his SH% was so low--he had good opportunities that he turned into non-opportunities.

That stuff all hopefully is addressed by more experience. And of course if he's separating better from the opposition and moving with more speed, he'll have a little more time to make better decisions. I'm not worried, just surprised he was so...underwhelming last season.