Evans never had any offensive potential. He was always seen as a future 4C. Even now he's beating all progonstics IMO.
When he was over 1.0ppg in the NCAA at age 21, Habs fans had him pegged higher. Everyone was all nervous if he would sign or not.
Beck is similar all over the board as Evans with one key difference, he has a NHL shot. That alone should be enough to make him a top 9 player. It's the only thing Evans is missing to get over that 10-15 points hump.
Whachoo tokkin' bout, Willis?
In the NCAA over 1.0 ppg his last three seasons (121 points in 117 games).
Then 2 seasons in the AHL with 0.71 ppg (83 points in 118 games)
This is Evans point pace per 82 games the last four NHL seasons:
23 points in 2020-21 (13/47)
33 points in 2021-22 (29/72)
29 points in 2022-23 (19/54)
28 points in 2023-24 (28/82)
29 points over TOTAL 4 seasons (89/255)
30 points excluding rookie season (76/208)
What 10-15 point hump?
Dvorak was carried by Tkachuk Domi and Marner in both his seasons, he was never the best player on his line or team. Beck is.
Dvorak was:
2nd on his team in scoring in his D+1 and
1st on team, ahead of Marner and Matthew Tkachuk in his D+2
Showed at least as good a shot as Beck.
Becks main draw ahead of dvo is his skating. Ultimately he should be a 3rd liner so he won't be a massive upgrade but he'd still be one over both.
Beck's skating is not better than Evans'. He might score a bit more than Jake and get fewer assists, similar points overall. That's my projection. But I am talking about the real 30 point Evans, not the imaginary 10-15 point Evans.