Prospect Info: Joshua Roy

[Habs Halifax]

I'm talking likelihood, not best case imaginable.



Beck has had clearly worse numbers in the OHL than Dvorak. I don't see a strong offensive game in Beck, sorry.




Kapanen has shown more offense, close to Lehkonen level, maybe one notch (5-8 points per season) lower.



2nd or 3rd line, somewhere in there, yep!

Your evaluation is to absolute in terms of comparing points from one player to another. Points come and go depending on surrounding talent and team acomplishments. You know this I am sure. Have you actually watched Beck and Kapanen play games? Like more than 5 games? Eye test would be better trusted vs point watching. Give me your game breakdown on the match-up game and how the player does against strong D and puck management. How are they generating their points? Against the weaker teams/younger players? Etc.

Just let them turn pro. That's when you get a better feel for their true NHL potential.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Your evaluation is to absolute in terms of comparing points from one player to another. Points come and go depending on surrounding talent and team acomplishments. You know this I am sure. Have you actually watched Beck and Kapanen play games? Like more than 5 games? Eye test would be better trusted vs point watching. Give me your game breakdown on the match-up game and how the player does against strong D and puck management. How are they generating their points? Against the weaker teams/younger players? Etc.

Just let them turn pro. That's when you get a better feel for their true NHL potential.

Of course they will turn pro and we will get more data points. Right now, I see Evans 2.0 based on the minutes I have seen Beck play. I m awbloe to copmparte him to Dvorak whom I also saw play, and Dvo was a lot better in the OHL.

Kapanen is even with or slightly behind Lehkonen, from what I have seen.

 

[Mrb1p]

Of course they will turn pro and we will get more data points. Right now, I see Evans 2.0 based on the minutes I have seen Beck play. I m awbloe to copmparte him to Dvorak whom I also saw play, and Dvo was a lot better in the OHL.

Kapanen is even with or slightly behind Lehkonen, from what I have seen.

Evans never had any offensive potential. He was always seen as a future 4C. Even now he's beating all progonstics IMO.

Beck is similar all over the board as Evans with one key difference, he has a NHL shot. That alone should be enough to make him a top 9 player. It's the only thing Evans is missing to get over that 10-15 points hump.

Dvorak was carried by Tkachuk Domi and Marner in both his seasons, he was never the best player on his line or team. Beck is.

Becks main draw ahead of dvo is his skating. Ultimately he should be a 3rd liner so he won't be a massive upgrade but he'd still be one over both.

 

[windycity]

That’s interesting.

If injuries aren’t a thing I don’t know who I’d pick out of those 2. Either or and I’m over the moon. I might say Lindstrom myself. You can’t go wrong with another Slaf really. Come playoff time we’ll be a nightmare to play against. Especially if Dach can get past the injuries. 3 f***ing behemoths who can skate and have skill

Legion of Doom 2.0

 

[CHwest]

Well, of course if you remove a players greatest asset, he looks rather ordinary. If you took away Mcdavids speed he wouldn't be so special. Lindros was as special as they came. He was the best player in the league for a couple years.

I guess we are talking about two different things, I don't put size as a talent but a physical attribute, Mcdavid's skating is talent because it is learned.

 

[Mrb1p]

I guess we are talking about two different things, I don't put size as a talent but a physical attribute, Mcdavid's skating is talent because it is learned.

Well skating is as much physiological as learned talent. Basically all skills are to some extent physiological, the body doesn't exist outside of the physical plane and it is played in this one. It's a bit semantically and I understand what you're saying, but at the very least you should consider such thing as skating as "physical". Using size is a skill just as using athleticism is a skill.

Regardless, even without his humongous size Lindros would still have been a first liner.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Evans never had any offensive potential. He was always seen as a future 4C. Even now he's beating all progonstics IMO.

When he was over 1.0ppg in the NCAA at age 21, Habs fans had him pegged higher. Everyone was all nervous if he would sign or not.

Beck is similar all over the board as Evans with one key difference, he has a NHL shot. That alone should be enough to make him a top 9 player. It's the only thing Evans is missing to get over that 10-15 points hump.

Whachoo tokkin' bout, Willis?

In the NCAA over 1.0 ppg his last three seasons (121 points in 117 games).

Then 2 seasons in the AHL with 0.71 ppg (83 points in 118 games)

This is Evans point pace per 82 games the last four NHL seasons:

23 points in 2020-21 (13/47)
33 points in 2021-22 (29/72)
29 points in 2022-23 (19/54)
28 points in 2023-24 (28/82)
29 points over TOTAL 4 seasons (89/255)
30 points excluding rookie season (76/208)

What 10-15 point hump?

Dvorak was carried by Tkachuk Domi and Marner in both his seasons, he was never the best player on his line or team. Beck is.

Dvorak was:
2nd on his team in scoring in his D+1 and
1st on team, ahead of Marner and Matthew Tkachuk in his D+2

Showed at least as good a shot as Beck.

Becks main draw ahead of dvo is his skating. Ultimately he should be a 3rd liner so he won't be a massive upgrade but he'd still be one over both.

Beck's skating is not better than Evans'. He might score a bit more than Jake and get fewer assists, similar points overall. That's my projection. But I am talking about the real 30 point Evans, not the imaginary 10-15 point Evans.

 

[LaP]

Dvorak was:
2nd on his team in scoring in his D+1 and
1st on team, ahead of Marner and Matthew Tkachuk in his D+2

Dvorak was older him having more points did not matter that much.

Dvorak in his draft year : 14 points in 33 games
Marner in his draft year : 126 points in 63 games
Tkachuk in his draft year : 107 points in 57 games

Beside Dvorak's problem is not a lack of skills but a lack of effort and involvement. He's a very passive player and he simply doesn't have the elite+ skills required to be one. But he got enough skills that if he would actually try he would do better. I think Beck has better intangibles sorta like Plekanec but less offensive skills than Dvorak. Beck reminds me Plekanec a lot honestly.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Dvorak was older him having more points did not matter that much.

Dvorak in his draft year : 14 points in 33 games
Marner in his draft year : 126 points in 63 games

Beside Dvorak's problem is not a lack of skills but a lack of effort and involvement. He's a very passive player and he simply doesn't have the elite+ skills required to be one. But he got enough skills that if he would actually try he would do better. I think Beck has better intangibles sorta like Plekanec but less offensive skills than Dvorak. Beck reminds me Plekanec a lot honestly.

The relevant comparisons are Dvorak and Evans to Beck. Beck does not come out clearly better.

 

[LaP]

The relevant comparisons are Dvorak and Evans to Beck. Beck does not come out clearly better.

No but like i said Dvorak's problems are not hockey related but attitude related. Dvorak got to be one of the most vanila player j've ever seen wear this jersey. I'd describe Malakhov as being an aggresive player giving an A+ effort if the comparable would be Dvorak.

 

[Mrb1p]

When he was over 1.0ppg in the NCAA at age 21, Habs fans had him pegged higher. Everyone was all nervous if he would sign or not.



Whachoo tokkin' bout, Willis?

In the NCAA over 1.0 ppg his last three seasons (121 points in 117 games).

Then 2 seasons in the AHL with 0.71 ppg (83 points in 118 games)

This is Evans point pace per 82 games the last four NHL seasons:

23 points in 2020-21 (13/47)
33 points in 2021-22 (29/72)
29 points in 2022-23 (19/54)
28 points in 2023-24 (28/82)
29 points over TOTAL 4 seasons (89/255)
30 points excluding rookie season (76/208)

What 10-15 point hump?




Dvorak was:
2nd on his team in scoring in his D+1 and
1st on team, ahead of Marner and Matthew Tkachuk in his D+2

Showed at least as good a shot as Beck.



Beck's skating is not better than Evans'. He might score a bit more than Jake and get fewer assists, similar points overall. That's my projection. But I am talking about the real 30 point Evans, not the imaginary 10-15 point Evans.

The 10-15 point hump to be more than a 4th liner, as in 35-40+ pts producer... People on this board also thought Poehlint was gonna be a top 6 C. It doesn't really matter. He never showed offensive potential to be a top 6er.

I never said Becks skating was better than Evans, even if it is slightly.

Man it's like you don't even take the time to read properly. Relax and read. Beck is a better shooter than Evans, Beck is a better skater than Dvorak. He's also a slightly better skater than Evans but we're splitting hair at this point.

 

[BaseballCoach]

The 10-15 point hump to be more than a 4th liner, as in 35-40+ pts producer... People on this board also thought Poehlint was gonna be a top 6 C. It doesn't really matter. He never showed offensive potential to be a top 6er.

I never said Becks skating was better than Evans, even if it is slightly.

Man it's like you don't even take the time to read properly. Relax and read. Beck is a better shooter than Evans, Beck is a better skater than Dvorak. He's also a slightly better skater than Evans but we're splitting hair at this point.

it's not splitting hairs to call Evans a 10-15 point player who needs to get over that "hump", when in fact he is a consistent 30ish point player. It is instead a horrible take, an egregious error. This is not about subjective interpretation. It's as blatant an error as they come.

Just admit you hugely exaggerated. If you meant to say you personally consider Evans as a fourth liner, then just say so, and don't lie to reduce his point production by 50-66% and hope no one notices.

I'm ok with people who think Evans is a solid fourth liner. It's probably similar to what Beck will be. Bottom six player who might reach 30 points. If that kind of player is on your fourth line because you have much better players in your middle six, that's actually great.

 

[Mrb1p]

it's not splitting hairs to call Evans a 10-15 point player who needs to get over that "hump", when in fact he is a consistent 30ish point player. It is instead a horrible take, an egregious error. This is not about subjective interpretation. It's as blatant an error as they come.

Just admit you hugely exaggerated. If you meant to say you personally consider Evans as a fourth liner, then just say so, and don't lie to reduce his point production by 50-66% and hope no one notices.

I'm ok with people who think Evans is a solid fourth liner. It's probably similar to what Beck will be. Bottom six player who might reach 30 points. If that kind of player is on your fourth llne because you have much better players in your middle six, that's actually great.

You can't read... I never called Evans a 10-15 points, I'm saying the doesn't have the shot to be a top 9 player and produce 10-15 more points...

 

[BaseballCoach]

You can't read... I never called Evans a 10-15 points, I'm saying the doesn't have the shot to be a top 9 player and produce 10-15 more points...

Regardless of whose fault it is that I did not understand what you wanted to say, I agree with you that Evans is unlikely to become a 40-45 point player.

But neither will Beck in my opinion. Having a decent shot is not enough, if you have limited creativity.

 

[Gillings]

No way Beck or Mesar are top 6 players. Beck maybe in 5+yrs a solid shutdown type, but i think people have lost sight of what an actual top 6 player is, and how it forms a cohesive unit.

The "mesars" are scattered all over the place in varying leagues.. all teams have this type of player they have drafted. The only way these guys work is if they actually become a top 6, absent that achievement they don't fit in a bottom 6 role, not big enough to do any damage to the opposing teams, or handle heavy minutes when we're under attack.

If only I didn’t take a baseball bat to the head when I was younger I would take the time to portray my thoughts this well.

 

[themilosh]

If only I didn’t take a baseball bat to the head when I was younger I would take the time to portray my thoughts this well.

living with CTE myself... im an old man now.. lol

 

[Mrb1p]

living with CTE myself... im an old man now.. lol

I'm living with major CTE too and I just graduated today with a bachelor's of science in geophysics, WE CAN DO ANYTHING AND EVERYTHING.

 

[Bacchus1]

I don't remember Lindros as being an elite talent. He was very talented and was very, very good at using his frame and size to his advantage. Had he been a regular sized player I don't think he would have been considered elite. That is my memory anyways, could be off, it has been a few years lol.

He was voted, by the NHL, as one of the greatest players of all time:

100 Greatest NHL Players of All Time | NHL.com

League announced remaining 67 legends at gala event in Los Angeles

www.nhl.com

He was also greater than a point per game career wise even though he played 3 subpar years through concussions problems at the end of his years. He was a dominant player in all ways. Depends on what you consider elite, but I would say he was one of the most dominant players of his era.

I guess we are talking about two different things, I don't put size as a talent but a physical attribute, Mcdavid's skating is talent because it is learned.

Size is McCarron … Lindros put up over 100 points 1 year … 115 to be exact.

 

[Habricot]

Well, of course if you remove a players greatest asset, he looks rather ordinary. If you took away Mcdavids speed he wouldn't be so special. Lindros was as special as they came. He was the best player in the league for a couple years.

I think his size (lindros) overshadowed his skills. Had he been a regular size he might have had just as successful of a career but longer.

 

[Bacchus1]

I think his size (lindros) overshadowed his skills. Had he been a regular size he might have had just as successful of a career but longer.

Had the NHL banned headshots he would have had a longer career. Scott Stevens hits would be long term suspendible in this era.

 

[Habricot]

He's a 3rd line C if he reaches his ceiling, and he is not a 4th liner. Very small window for him to reach his potential.. will take him 3ish yrs to hone his craft in the AHL.

Roy has a top 6 ceiling, but he is not a 3rd 4th line asset.
He must produce points, again small window, considering Newhook is the prototypical middle 6 (and vastly superior player atm).

Its a bit early to put a ceiling on Beck don't you think unless you own a chrystal ball that never lies to you. Could he end up a 4th line player, yes, could he end up a Newhook type player, also yes. I see him as a better version of Danault at the same age and I think Danault is a luxury 3rd line center.

 

[26Mats]

No but like i said Dvorak's problems are not hockey related but attitude related. Dvorak got to be one of the most vanila player j've ever seen wear this jersey. I'd describe Malakhov as being an aggresive player giving an A+ effort if the comparable would be Dvorak.

Dvo to the wing please!

 

[MasterD]

The 10-15 point hump to be more than a 4th liner, as in 35-40+ pts producer... People on this board also thought Poehlint was gonna be a top 6 C. It doesn't really matter. He never showed offensive potential to be a top 6er.

I never said Becks skating was better than Evans, even if it is slightly.

Man it's like you don't even take the time to read properly. Relax and read. Beck is a better shooter than Evans, Beck is a better skater than Dvorak. He's also a slightly better skater than Evans but we're splitting hair at this point.

Your post was poorly worded if that's what you meant, I read it exactly the same way.

 

[Mrb1p]

Evans is a 25-30 points/82 games player. Has been for 4 years, since he joined the league.

10-15 game hump to be a top 9 player.

20+10 / 30+15 = a 30-45 pts player.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I don't remember Lindros as being an elite talent. He was very talented and was very, very good at using his frame and size to his advantage. Had he been a regular sized player I don't think he would have been considered elite. That is my memory anyways, could be off, it has been a few years lol.

He was a modern day Gordie Howe. Would’ve been a top ten all-time player had he not gotten crushed with concussions.