Player Discussion Josh Norris (C) 6’-1” - Part 3

[Nova Stutzlia]

He's scoring at a 32 goal pace.
I'm thinking he'll improve on that, finishing with 35+.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

View attachment 953297

Norris's finest hour. He has this poster above his bed

He's scoring at a 32 goal pace.
I'm thinking he'll improve on that, finishing with 35+.

He might improve on it but .. based on what?

 

[Nova Stutzlia]

Norris's finest hour. He has this poster above his bed


He might improve on it but .. based on what?

Partly because of what he says at 1:30, and the smile on his face.
And also I think he's better than what he's shown so far.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

View attachment 953297

Mods, I thought I told you to delete my picture from this forum!

 

[Nova Stutzlia]

Mods, I thought I told you to delete my picture from this forum!

Pffft. If you're where you claim you are, your picture would be up in Post Offices everywhere!

 

[RickyLafleur]

He's been pretty good this year for a guy most people wrote off due to his past shoulder injuries.

 

[darude]

He's been pretty good this year for a guy most people wrote off due to his past shoulder injuries.

That goal last night was pretty much what he was doing during his best scoring year. He seems to be in good shape, just hope his health holds.

 

[StoicSensFan]

Partly because of what he says at 1:30, and the smile on his face.
And also I think he's better than what he's shown so far.

Did he really say that it's been 3 years since he got a clean one-timer set up? lmao

 

[NyQuil]

Did he really say that it's been 3 years since he got a clean one-timer set up? lmao

When’s the last time he’s been wide open in the circle?

It seems like most opposition has figured out to sit someone on him.

Maybe Minnesota didn’t do their scouting since we don’t play them very often.

 

[HSF]

When’s the last time he’s been wide open in the circle?

It seems like most opposition has figured out to sit someone on him.

Maybe Minnesota didn’t do their scouting since we don’t play them very often.

I feel like it was a few games ago and he completely missed the puck

 

[NyQuil]

I feel like it was a few games ago and he completely missed the puck

Well, I’m sure it has happened at some point but it’s not like when he was ripping those PP markers a few years back.

 

[bicboi64]

I'm fine with his current production as long as he stays healthy. Of course I want him to progress, but if all we end up with is 30g, 50pts, and good two way play, it's progress compared to him being injured always. Having said that, it'd be nice if he had more consistency with his goals. 3g, 0a, in his last 10 games isn't good enough considering his contract,but hey at least he's healthy and still being a beast on the dot/in our own end.

 

[JD1]

There's talk in the Tkachuk thread about Norris and his contract.

Thought I'd post this here rather than continue the discussion there.

Norris AAV is 45th in the league amongst forwards. 25th amongst centers. So he's currently paid like a low end 1C and he's signed for 5 more years.

He’s looking like he's going to post his 2nd 30 goal season

He's 15th in the league with defensive zone faceoffs with 199. He's in the bottom 15% of the league in offensive zone faceoff percentage.

He's winning 55.5% of his faceoffs

He's drawn 12 penalties which is a tie for 25th.

He's 23rd in the league in pk ice time per game.

So he's a guy that is paid like a low end 1C that by contract end will be paid probably like a high end 3C. He's winning draws. He's the go to defensive center on a team that's tightened up defensively. He's drawing penalties. He scores. He's a huge shooting threat on the pp that opens up other pp options. He plays on PP1 on a team that's got a high end PP

As far as I can tell, the only criticism is he's not a great play maker.

His shoulder is less of a concern every day and I think if he blows it again you get ltir relief for the duration of the deal.

I'd say Norris contract is pretty much ideal. And with him, Tkachuk, stuetzle, Sanderson, chabot and Ullmark all signed around 8M for the next 4 seasons, it opens up the opportunity to pick up another high end player or two at TDLs in a rising cap world.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Some more numbers on Norris
Among all C's
88th in pts/60 All strengths
37th in toi/gp All strengths
137th in pts/60 at Even Strength
98th in toi/gp at Even Strength
135th in CF% at Even Strength
134th in SF% at Even Strength
167th in GF% at Even Strength
187th in XGF% at Even Strength
166th in HDCF% at Even Strength
58th in pts/60 PP
21st in toi/gp PP
15th in toi/gp PK


eliminating players with < 100 minutes TOI . Norris moves from 88th to 83rd at All strengths.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Goals are nice. He needs to be more controlling though and I think he will always be too slight to win battles consistently. Come playoff time I don’t know what his value is 5 on 5

 

[Good in Osgoode]

There's talk in the Tkachuk thread about Norris and his contract.

Thought I'd post this here rather than continue the discussion there.

Norris AAV is 45th in the league amongst forwards. 25th amongst centers. So he's currently paid like a low end 1C and he's signed for 5 more years.

He’s looking like he's going to post his 2nd 30 goal season

He's 15th in the league with defensive zone faceoffs with 199. He's in the bottom 15% of the league in offensive zone faceoff percentage.

He's winning 55.5% of his faceoffs

He's drawn 12 penalties which is a tie for 25th.

He's 23rd in the league in pk ice time per game.

So he's a guy that is paid like a low end 1C that by contract end will be paid probably like a high end 3C. He's winning draws. He's the go to defensive center on a team that's tightened up defensively. He's drawing penalties. He scores. He's a huge shooting threat on the pp that opens up other pp options. He plays on PP1 on a team that's got a high end PP

As far as I can tell, the only criticism is he's not a great play maker.

His shoulder is less of a concern every day and I think if he blows it again you get ltir relief for the duration of the deal.

I'd say Norris contract is pretty much ideal. And with him, Tkachuk, stuetzle, Sanderson, chabot and Ullmark all signed around 8M for the next 4 seasons, it opens up the opportunity to pick up another high end player or two at TDLs in a rising cap world.

I would agree that there is a lot to like about his game and that he is basically playing as a first line centreman this year and brings all those things (PP, PK, winning draws, 2-way play, etc.)

I just feel like there is another level to his game that we are just seeing glimpses of in some games.
If he can get to that level on a more consistent basis, the $8m/year is certainly justified.

At where he is right now, I think he should be more in the $6m/year range in what he brings to the table. I would say that he is a little overpaid right now but still has room to grow in his game and I do think that for him (as all players), it is about confidence. For all that he has gone through with injuries, you can understand why there would be some hesitancy in his game. That hesitancy to go in the corners, to throw a hit, to be engaged physically seems to be gradually going away.

If he can bring that level of play on a consistent basis, I think that he can be one of the top 2-way Centreman in the league and his contract would be more than justified.

 

[UglyPuckling]

When’s the last time he’s been wide open in the circle?

It seems like most opposition has figured out to sit someone on him.

Maybe Minnesota didn’t do their scouting since we don’t play them very often.

I don’t think they’ve used Norris in the bumper slot this year as much as years past either.

Forgot where I saw it exactly (might have been Northwest Sports Analytics), but there was one website whose basic premise was salary optimization based on position. They had a good 2nd line center at $6.5 m/year, again with optimization in mind. The site also stated that $7 - 8 m was reasonable and feasible for the best 2nd line centers.

 

[bicboi64]

You cant trade him unless we get a clear upgrade on 2C or RD.

He's no developing his offense per say, but defensively he's great and the offense will come. He's still bouncing back from his injuries and a full healthy season with top 6 production is fine for now. As long as he doesn't go below 30g 20a, I'm fine with him because of useful he is in every other area of the ice.

Only reason for management to want to move him is they don't think he can stay healthy.

 

[DrEasy]

I don’t think they’ve used Norris in the bumper slot this year as much as years past either.

Forgot where I saw it exactly (might have been Northwest Sports Analytics), but there was one website whose basic premise was salary optimization based on position. They had a good 2nd line center at $6.5 m/year, again with optimization in mind. The site also stated that $7 - 8 m was reasonable and feasible for the best 2nd line centers.

Seems to me this year they've been using Norris on the PP to play where Brady used to play (i.e. right in front of the net), and Brady is... kind of all over the place, sometimes behind the net, sometimes at the point even. Doesn't make much sense to me, but it could be because of Norris' limitations with his shoulder (can't take passes), and because Brady seems to have a better scoring touch a little bit away from the net, using his shot rather than his suboptimal hands up close.

Now if Norris can score again on one-timers like he did last game, maybe they revert to the old setup, with Brady going back to the front of the net, focusing on disrupting the goalie and tipping shots.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Seems to me this year they've been using Norris on the PP to play where Brady used to play (i.e. right in front of the net), and Brady is... kind of all over the place, sometimes behind the net, sometimes at the point even. Doesn't make much sense to me, but it could be because of Norris' limitations with his shoulder (can't take passes), and because Brady seems to have a better scoring touch a little bit away from the net, using his shot rather than his suboptimal hands up close.

Now if Norris can score again on one-timers like he did last game, maybe they revert to the old setup, with Brady going back to the front of the net, focusing on disrupting the goalie and tipping shots.

I thought his job was to lose the puck on the wall if it got rimmed or passed out from behind the net

 

[UglyPuckling]

Seems to me this year they've been using Norris on the PP to play where Brady used to play (i.e. right in front of the net), and Brady is... kind of all over the place, sometimes behind the net, sometimes at the point even. Doesn't make much sense to me, but it could be because of Norris' limitations with his shoulder (can't take passes), and because Brady seems to have a better scoring touch a little bit away from the net, using his shot rather than his suboptimal hands up close.

Now if Norris can score again on one-timers like he did last game, maybe they revert to the old setup, with Brady going back to the front of the net, focusing on disrupting the goalie and tipping shots.

Not sure what schemes Green is using, but it doesn’t seem to feature Norris in the bumper position nearly as much as it used to. Green may be using more than one scheme as well. His one timer has looked good, at least recently. He hasn’t used it as much this year though. Norris seems to handle passes fine and is handling the physical play just fine as well.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Not sure what schemes Green is using, but it doesn’t seem to feature Norris in the bumper position nearly as much as it used to. Green may be using more than one scheme as well. His one timer has looked good, at least recently. He hasn’t used it as much this year though. Norris seems to handle passes fine and is handling the physical play just fine as well.

PP is run by Yeo with Alfie’s help.
His shot velocity is down.
In his 35 goal year his to shot was 95 mph putting him in the 90th percentile
This year is 84 mph which is 50th percentile for forwards.
Also all the speed ranges are down. Ie 80-90 mph, 70-80 etc

Here is the this year, first section is overview , scroll down a few pages to get to shot speed, then change the year in the Dropbox, for comparisons.

NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics - Skaters

NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics for skaters including skating speed, skating distance, shot speed, shot location, and zone time.

edge.nhl.com

 

[Alex1234]

Some more numbers on Norris
Among all C's
88th in pts/60 All strengths
37th in toi/gp All strengths
137th in pts/60 at Even Strength
98th in toi/gp at Even Strength
135th in CF% at Even Strength
134th in SF% at Even Strength
167th in GF% at Even Strength
187th in XGF% at Even Strength
166th in HDCF% at Even Strength
58th in pts/60 PP
21st in toi/gp PP
15th in toi/gp PK


eliminating players with < 100 minutes TOI . Norris moves from 88th to 83rd at All strengths.

His 3rd best placement in your list would be his AVV among centre at 25th in the league like JD1 said
50 points is a bit low for a low end 1C considering Giroux has really slowed and has more points
But at least he is playing so it's better than last season for us

 

[UglyPuckling]

PP is run by Yeo with Alfie’s help.
His shot velocity is down.
In his 35 goal year his to shot was 95 mph putting him in the 90th percentile
This year is 84 mph which is 50th percentile for forwards.
Also all the speed ranges are down. Ie 80-90 mph, 70-80 etc

Here is the this year, first section is overview , scroll down a few pages to get to shot speed, then change the year in the Dropbox, for comparisons.

NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics - Skaters

NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics for skaters including skating speed, skating distance, shot speed, shot location, and zone time.

edge.nhl.com

OK, Yeo - whatever.

Let’s see what these stats look like at the end of the year. Shot samples are smallish. 70 shots this year (so far). Qty 3 @ 80 - 90 mph. Qty 12 @ 70 - 80 mph.

 

[Golden_Jet]

OK, Yeo - whatever.

Let’s see what these stats look like at the end of the year. Shot samples are smallish. 70 shots this year (so far). Qty 3 @ 80 - 90 mph. Qty 12 @ 70 - 80 mph.

even last year he was in the 80-90th percentile, hopefully he can get back to that vs the 50th percentile.