John Tavares - Generational UFA

[CantHaveTkachev]

Hey, the Oilers can still succeed with Lucic RNH and Strome - $15M-16.5M

I'm sure Tampa can do just fine with Tavares Gourde and J.T. Miller $17M

might have to pay a pick for a team to take Callahan

its gonna wreak havoc on the cap situation...especially with Kucherov due for MASSIVE raise

 

[Ainec]

its gonna wreak havoc on the cap situation...especially with Kucherov due for MASSIVE raise

Would you be fine with losing Leon Draisaitl at 1.5M over his current 8.5 for 4 1st round picks? I'm sure the Tampa Bay Lightning would love to load up even more at a cost of 0 picks

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Would you be fine with losing Leon Draisaitl at 1.5M over his current 8.5 for 4 1st round picks? I'm sure the Tampa Bay Lightning would love to load up even more at a cost of 0 picks

again....how is that even possible? (Drai is 8 mill btw)

 

[Ainec]

again....how is that even possible? (Drai is 8 mill btw)

can you answer my question?

Draisaitl or 4 1st round picks

and Drai is 8.5M not 8 btw (68 divide by 8 = 8.5)

I would rather have JT for free, without wasting a whole season at the bottom of the standings

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

can you answer my question?

Draisaitl or 4 1st round picks

and Drai is 8.5M not 8 btw (68 divide by 8 = 8.5)

I would rather have JT for free, without wasting a whole season at the bottom of the standings

Drasaitl
but that has nothing to do with my original post nor the Oilers lol

 

[Ainec]

Drasaitl
but that has nothing to do with my original post nor the Oilers lol

you're saying a team would be stupid to sign JT for 11M

i'm trying to see how getting a top 10 c at a salary cap price of Draisaitl + Kassian without forfeiting a season for a top 5 pick or giving up 1st rounders is bad

 

[mouser]

Tavares is overrated...never scored 40 goals and never had 90 points

anyone paying him 11+ mil is insane and will regret it down the line

Toews never scored 35 goals or even 80 points. Has one season above 70 points.

Kopitar scored 35 goals for the first time in his career this year and hit 90 points for the first time, only one other year hitting 80 points.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Toews never scored 35 goals or even 80 points. Has one season above 70 points.

Kopitar scored 35 goals for the first time in his career this year and hit 90 points for the first time, only one other year hitting 80 points.

-both have led their respective clubs to multiple Stanley Cup championships
-both are overpaid

 

[Yamazaki]

-both have led their respective clubs to multiple Stanley Cup championships
-both are overpaid

Both also had 10x the supporting cast and ownership Tavares ever had.

 

[charliolemieux]

2yr x 14
With a serious chance to win the Cup.
In a crazy hockey city.
A city starving for a cup.
In a city starving for a winner so bad he could be a god.
In his Home Town.
Hope his greedy agent, has little influence and
JT follows his heart.

 

[Hivemind]

Ilya Kovalchuk in 2010 was a bigger deal

 

[Senor Catface]

We get it Mrs. Tavares, your son is a great hockey player.

 

[illpucks]

*let's just say he doesn't pull a Stamkos

I made a list of the top free agents since Ilya Kovalchuk (when salary cap was 59.4M).

You pay for top tier elite talents like Kovalchuk, Suter, and Tavares. You stay away from Richards, Okposo, Lucic, Ladd, Eriksson, Beleskey (no hindsight to this). And you manage to sign Niskanen, Stralman, Green to reasonable contracts because stupid GMs spent their wad elsewhere. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that teams should throw out huge $ at quality free agents (unicorns, but here he is) and make it work to their benefit.

Tavares is a top 10 center. And if you really want to be in the minority on it, a top 15 C. Unlike the other top free agents on this list he is on the younger side of entering free agency. On top of that, he has little injury history and no character defect.

I roll my eyes at anyone implying they should not sign Tavares as a free agent because of cap implications and having holes elsewhere on the roster. Clueless! Pay the man 8x14M+ and celebrate if you get him for less.

2018 80M salary cap
Tavares

2017 75M
Kevn Shattenkirk 4 year 26.65m
Alexander Radulov 5 year 31.25m
Karl Alzner lol
Justin Williams

2016 73M
Kyle Okposo lol
David Backes lol
Milan Lucic lol
Andrew Ladd lol
Loui Eriksson lol

2015 71.4M
Mike Green 3 year 18M
Matt Beleskey lol
Mike Ribiero lol
Cody Franson lol

2014 69M
Matt Niskanen 7 year 40.25M
Ryan Miller 3 year 18M
Anton Stralman 5 year 22M

2013 64.3M
Paul Stastny 4 year 28M

2012 60-70.2M
Ryan Suter 13 year 98M
Zach Parise 13 year 98M

2011 64.3M
Brad Richards 9 year 60M

2010 59.4M salary cap
Ilya Kovalchuk 17 year 102M contract after turning down 12 year 101M from Atlanta

Why would Kovalchuk turn down 101m 12 years but accept 102m 17 years

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I think most fans understand that there is a big difference between signing Tavares in UFA and signing any other UFA that we’ve seen hit the market in recent years. I would much rather sign Tavares at $15.9M/7Y than sign Lucic or Okposo to the contracts they got.

#1 centers are the most important players in the NHL and also the hardest to acquire. How many centers of Tavares’ caliber are currently playing for a team that did not draft them in the top-5 of an NHL draft? You pretty much have to tank for a Tavares level center and you pretty much have to have a Tavares level center to win. I would rather overpay by $4-5M on a Tavares contract than tank for more than one year

 

[Price is Wright]

I'm of the position that fans need to stop expecting bargains out of their stars and start pushing their GMs to stop giving contracts in the $3M-$5M range out like candy to replaceable players.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Ilya Kovalchuk in 2010 was a bigger deal

Absolutely not. Tavares right now is a much bigger deal.

 

[SotasicA]

Why would Kovalchuk turn down 101m 12 years but accept 102m 17 years

He didn't want to stay in Atlanta.

The years were mostly irrelevant anyway, because I don't think he planned on playing till the end. They were just there to take the cap hit down.

 

[zeke]

I suspect Tavares has a similar 28+ decline as guys like Lecavalier, Staal, Toews, Spezza.

I wouldn't want to be the team paying super-elite money for that, personally.

 

[Statto]

He didn't want to stay in Atlanta.

The years were mostly irrelevant anyway, because I don't think he planned on playing till the end. They were just there to take the cap hit down.

Exactly. The last 6 years of that deal were clear circumvention of the Cap and shouldn’t be used to measure his market value. Being generous let’s assume he intended to play the year he was due $3.5 million.

Those last 6 years in terms of cash were =< $750k. If you take them out his AAV becomes $8.95 million instead of $6 million. That’s the number to use when adjusting his contract value, which works out at $11.98 million today.

Kovalchuk was definitely a bigger deal when hitting the market. There was much more of a frenzy even with less social media. I’d never trade prime Kovalchuk for Prime Tavares straight up, it’s close but I’d want a 2nd rd pick, or something similar, to get value. But that’s just me.

 

[The Macho King]

are people forgetting stamkos made it to this same point and signed in tb at the 11th hour during the courting period just before he actually went ufa status so he could get the 8th year.

But yes, it is a rare situation w the quality and youth as a potential ufa

Stamkos' re-signing was right in the middle of the best 2 hours in NHL transactions history.

 

[The Macho King]

I suspect Tavares has a similar 28+ decline as guys like Lecavalier, Staal, Toews, Spezza.

I wouldn't want to be the team paying super-elite money for that, personally.

Is Matt Cooke still around to ruin his shoulder?

 

[TheDoldrums]

The OP has it right.

The salary structure in the NHL is broken. The middle class is vastly overpaid. The stars are typically underpaid. In free agency the smart play is almost always to go for cheap talent, but Tavares is the rare exception worth hunting.

 

[AppsSyl]

I suspect Tavares has a similar 28+ decline as guys like Lecavalier, Staal, Toews, Spezza.

I wouldn't want to be the team paying super-elite money for that, personally.

I think you will be surprised by his longevity and how his production holds up.
His uncle was a pretty good lacrosse player long past 30, and the decline for a scorer in that sport is much more pronounced than in hockey.

 

[zeke]

I think you will be surprised by his longevity and how his production holds up.
His uncle was a pretty good lacrosse player long past 30, and the decline for a scorer in that sport is much more pronounced than in hockey.

the other point is that Tavares isn't actually an elite scorer even now, when ice time is factored in.

 

[Tavares to Marner]

the other point is that Tavares isn't actually an elite scorer even now, when ice time is factored in.

I'm assuming you don't mean he isn't a top #1 center right? Also check the linemates he's had In the past couple years ?