Player Discussion John Gibson
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Ducks DVM
sowcufucakky
Gibson is 43rd out of 44 goalies in SV% for the 30+ game goalies.
I’m not convinced that the “expected” stats mean much, but in the real world, he’s not performing.
anezthes
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Ducks DVM
sowcufucakky
Yes. Save % is an actual metric. Expected stats are a non-validated guess on what the percentage is that someone’s shots are going to go in.
Edit - you also failed to provide the relative numbers and where they fall on the bell curve, so the relative “badness” isn’t available.
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anezthes
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Ducks DVM
sowcufucakky
+/- is a metric involving the play of the rest of the team, that’d be a better retort if I was discussing GAA.
I really don’t care. I think I pretty clearly stated what my issue with 5th worst vs 8th worst is - those aren’t useful numbers for true comparison purposes. There could be a 1% gap between them or a 99% gap, and 5th vs 8th won’t elucidate that.
Games aren’t won or lost by expected stats. And they aren’t validated. People use them to conform their biases when they work and try to explain them away when they don’t.
anezthes
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SV% doesn't involve the play of the rest of the team? I wholeheartedly disagree, good sir.
GSAx seems pretty clear to me. Not sure I can help you there.
You can say that about almost any stat.
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Ducks DVM
sowcufucakky
To the extent that GAA does? Not even remotely. The goalie can affect the Shots that are actually taken at the net. They cannot prevent shots from being taken. The team can try to prevent shots, and limit where they are taken from, but much like +/-, with the sole exception of catching/not catching/controlling rebounds certain types of shots, the goalie cannot affect what the other 5 skaters are doing for the shots taken aspect of GAA. Apples to oranges.
Sure you can. You can provide data on the actual percentages, and the spread between different goalies on that list.
10, 9, 8, 8, 7, 7, 7, 2, 1, 1, 1 - compare 5th worst and 8th worst.
19, 9, 9, 8, 3, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1 - compare 5th worst and 8th worst.
“5th worst vs 8th worst” does not provide the context to know if that’s a significant difference or not. Number of individuals reduced from actual because it’s irrelevant to the point being made.
Yes, you can, but there’s a world of difference between goals scored and expected (fill in the blank). One of those things is an actual real world event, the other is a mess of statistics that someone has created that don’t come close to capturing the actual complexity of the events that they are attempting to quantify. Goals and SV% are validated. Expected stats are not. Whether or not that matters to an individual is irrelevant to the fact that the expect stats are not the predictive or evaluation force that people make them out to be, any more than Corsi was.
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This is an interesting argument about who is better between Gibson and Dostal. My take is that the goalie who makes 8X what the other goalie makes should be better by a wide margin. That is clearly not the case.
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
I'm not fond of expected stats b/c the expectation probably lies with who's grading it, but the more stats available can only help to paint better picture. With raw stats, there isn't any question of what happened.
I'd rather if people would compare performances into splits of 5v5 and PK. Natural Stat Trick does a lot of these breakdowns for us.
I am actually not surprised to see both goalies over the .900 Sv% because in my goal breakdowns, our ES defense improved greatly! When I input 1335 TOI into the 5v5 goalie filter, Dostal ranks as 29th in Sv% and Gibby 34th in Sv%. Objectively, both goalies are similar with respect to Sv% and rank.
If we're utilizing xGA, then we can see that Gibby performed better than the xGA rating and Dostal allowed more raw goals than xGA rating. Again, I have no idea of the expectation projections, but it looks cool it's the expected rate is close to the raw production.
At high danger (HD) shot chances, Gibby is a lot better than Dostal. Which means that Gibby is allowing in a lot more low danger shots to get into the back of the net. I have no idea
The Sv% being this low is expected b/c our PK defense sucks. I don't blame our goalies at all b/c look at their Sv% at 5v5 situations, it's night and day! When I input 130 TOI into the PK goalie filter, Dostal ranks as 37th in Sv% and Gibby 41st in Sv%.
PK TOI
Gibby = 252:40
Dostal = 259:10
What is odd is that there are 20 fewer shots against Gibby. I didn't think it would be that wide a margin with the additional 7:30 PK TOI for Dostal. The average shot per minute rate is about 1 shot per minute. Which brings in the question of the quality of defenders in front of our goalies and their ability to block shots.
HD Sv% are similar. Too bad we don't have breakdowns if low danger goals were screens. Still, Gibby allows more non-HD goals than Dostal by 4 goals: Dostal 23 non-HD GA and Gibby 27 non-HD GA.
Our PK defense in front of our goalies blow!
============
Conclusion
============
Dostal is slightly better overall, but weaker in HD GA. Yet, there are mitigating factors such as injury or playing through injury. A lot of people forget that Dostal blew chunks after a hot October and we rode Gibby hard to protect Dostal. Dostal struggled again in February. We forget that Dostal still isn't a finished product yet and if we remove Gibby, then who's gonna shelter Dostal like Gibby did in November?
I think squabbling over Dostal and Gibby is missing the point that our PK defense presented in front of both is atrocious and if both had enough goal support, then we would have more points in the standings. Our goalies aren't the big problem on our team.
I'd rather if people would compare performances into splits of 5v5 and PK. Natural Stat Trick does a lot of these breakdowns for us.
| Ducks | 2023-24 | Goalies | 5v5 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goalie | Games | Shots | GA | SV% | GAA | xGA | GA-xGA | HD GA | HD SV% | ||
| Gibson | 46 | 994 | 93 | 0.906 | 2.77 | 93.59 | -0.59 | 48 | 0.832 | ||
| Dostal | 43 | 899 | 80 | 0.911 | 2.75 | 75.12 | 4.88 | 44 | 0.806 |
I am actually not surprised to see both goalies over the .900 Sv% because in my goal breakdowns, our ES defense improved greatly! When I input 1335 TOI into the 5v5 goalie filter, Dostal ranks as 29th in Sv% and Gibby 34th in Sv%. Objectively, both goalies are similar with respect to Sv% and rank.
If we're utilizing xGA, then we can see that Gibby performed better than the xGA rating and Dostal allowed more raw goals than xGA rating. Again, I have no idea of the expectation projections, but it looks cool it's the expected rate is close to the raw production.
At high danger (HD) shot chances, Gibby is a lot better than Dostal. Which means that Gibby is allowing in a lot more low danger shots to get into the back of the net. I have no idea
| Ducks | 2023-24 | Goalies | PK | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goalie | Games | Shots | GA | SV% | GAA | xGA | GA-xGA | HD GA | HD SV% | ||
| Gibson | 46 | 265 | 46 | 0.826 | 10.92 | 39.7 | 6.3 | 19 | 0.771 | ||
| Dostal | 43 | 285 | 43 | 0.849 | 9.95 | 41.63 | 1.37 | 20 | 0.762 |
The Sv% being this low is expected b/c our PK defense sucks. I don't blame our goalies at all b/c look at their Sv% at 5v5 situations, it's night and day! When I input 130 TOI into the PK goalie filter, Dostal ranks as 37th in Sv% and Gibby 41st in Sv%.
PK TOI
Gibby = 252:40
Dostal = 259:10
What is odd is that there are 20 fewer shots against Gibby. I didn't think it would be that wide a margin with the additional 7:30 PK TOI for Dostal. The average shot per minute rate is about 1 shot per minute. Which brings in the question of the quality of defenders in front of our goalies and their ability to block shots.
HD Sv% are similar. Too bad we don't have breakdowns if low danger goals were screens. Still, Gibby allows more non-HD goals than Dostal by 4 goals: Dostal 23 non-HD GA and Gibby 27 non-HD GA.
Our PK defense in front of our goalies blow!
============
Conclusion
============
Dostal is slightly better overall, but weaker in HD GA. Yet, there are mitigating factors such as injury or playing through injury. A lot of people forget that Dostal blew chunks after a hot October and we rode Gibby hard to protect Dostal. Dostal struggled again in February. We forget that Dostal still isn't a finished product yet and if we remove Gibby, then who's gonna shelter Dostal like Gibby did in November?
I think squabbling over Dostal and Gibby is missing the point that our PK defense presented in front of both is atrocious and if both had enough goal support, then we would have more points in the standings. Our goalies aren't the big problem on our team.
AngelDuck
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The thing about Gibson vs Dostal is that Dostal is expected to improve and Gibson is expected to get worse(barring something miraculous)
The ducks also have Clang, Suchanek, Clara, Butyets in the system. You have to imagine at least 1 of those guys will become NHL caliber at some point. Maybe we limp through 1 more year with Gibson but I think a buyout becomes very likely after next season
The ducks also have Clang, Suchanek, Clara, Butyets in the system. You have to imagine at least 1 of those guys will become NHL caliber at some point. Maybe we limp through 1 more year with Gibson but I think a buyout becomes very likely after next season
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
I'm pretty lost with how fast people believe prospects should progress, especially with goalies.
We are hoping there will be NHL caliber at some point, but I don't know how many realize the term it takes to become NHL established. Dostal is 23 years old and has been playing in the AHL/NHL for the past four years. This year, people forgot how dismal Dostal was in November that Gibby carried us in November and struggled again in February. Dostal is still feeling his way in the NHL.
Verbeek signed Alexander, but he's bombed. None of the Clang, Suchanek, Buteyets, nor Clara have played a single NHL game. Dostal had Stolarz in front of him to help shelter Dostal into the NHL. And before Stolarz, we had Miller as the back up at the NHL level.
AngelDuck
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The ducks can sign a veteran backup goalie in Gibsons place for much cheaper
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
So we're paying half of Gibson's contract and the contract of a veteran backup goalie?
I think we're barking up the wrong tree if we're trying to look for improvements b/c I already shared the dysfunctions on the team which are the PK coaching and offense (both ES offense and PP). Gibson is the least of our problems.
Dr Johnny Fever
RIP Grizzly 399
IMO, it’s addition by subtraction. An average to crappy backup for Dostal, not named Gibson, will be an improvement.
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
Sounds rash when I just shared that Gibby and Dostal are above .900 Sv% at 5v5. Even more rash when Dostal isn't hasn't proven himself stable for a whole NHL season.
I'm looking at this objectively. Dostal is under contract next season and he gets to prove he's stable for a whole NHL season. We can revisit this next end of the season. It's another development season next year anyhow.
Dr Johnny Fever
RIP Grizzly 399
I’m not anointing Dostal as the next Roy, Brodeur, Price, or Hasek. I’m just saying he’s earned the right to be a solid 1A/1B with somebody who isn’t Gibson. It’s time to move on. Even if Dostal becomes the next Campbell, our problem won’t be solved by inserting Gibson back in as a #1. I, personally, do not want to see Gibson back on the team next year. There is zero value in it for the development of this team. It’s time to move on.
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
I'm not emotionally tied to Gibby, but I don't see the reason for moving on from him today. Statistically, I'm okay with Gibby because he isn't the reason why the team sucks. The team sucks because of what's in front of our goalies.
Dostal got honors for an amazing October this season!
You may not remember Dostal's November, but Pepperidge Farm remembers.
| Dostal | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Opp | Start/Relief | GA | SA | Saves | Sv% |
1-Nov | ari | Start | 3 | 35 | 32 | 0.914 |
10-Nov | phi | Start | 5 | 35 | 30 | 0.857 |
15-Nov | col | Start | 8 | 38 | 30 | 0.789 |
26-Nov | edm | Start | 6 | 16 | 10 | 0.625 |
| Avg | ||||||
| Total | 22 | 124 | 102 | 0.823 |
The average total Sv% of those four games is 0.823. But if we do the average per game, then average game Sv% is 0.796.
Gibby played 11 games in November because Dostal was being devoured in quicksand.
I don't get into the whole interpret body language and stuff. The numbers are things I can interpret. I don't see a need to move on from Gibby for next season, especially when Dostal is still trying to develop that consistency for a whole NHL season. If Dostal can prove his consistency for the whole season, then we can revisit moving on from Gibby.
Again, tinkering with our goalies when the problem is in front of them (coaching, players losing assignments, or F3 not rotating back up when a D-man pinches that leads to odd-man rushes or breakaways) is like focusing on your turn signals while the brakes don't work b/c a) you didn't put on new pads, b) you keep slamming onto the brakes than coast to a known stop, or c) the combination of a & b that warp your rotors prematurely.
Since Henrique's contract with the Oil ends on June 30th, does that mean we could still trade another player (read: Gibson) with retention come July 1st?
AFAIK we already have three players with retention now and cannot surpass that amount whatsoever.
AFAIK we already have three players with retention now and cannot surpass that amount whatsoever.
All Mighty
Registered User
Ah, that is a good point. I don't think we can retain on another player until after July 1.
From what I read on the boards, the retention spots open back up when the contract ends. It should be open as soon as free agency starts (July 1st?).
WhatTheDuck
9 - 20 - 8
If I'm not mistaken, the season officially ends 48 hours after the Cup is awarded. Also players are paid out their contracts by the end of the regular season, so our retention obligations should be fulfilled by the end of this week.
They open up a buyout window after that 48 hours, then a week and half or so later there is a deadline for qualifying RFA's. Then the draft later that week followed by the start of UFA.
But yeah to summarize, I'm pretty certain we are good to move Gibson with retention in June and wouldn't have to wait until July.
I think if we were to retain him down below 5M, he's still movable. It wasn't that long ago the GM survey had him firmly in the top 10 for goalies, a lot of that old guard tend to be far less "what have you done lately" than we are as fans. He'll have his believers out there who feel he can rebound with a change of scenery. Worse and less proven goalies get handed the reigns every off season, there just aren't enough truly good ones to go around.
3 years at 4.6-4.9M on Gibson will look like a more favorable to some GM than going with some guy who has never shown they can handle a starters workload. Doesn't need to be a consensus opinion, only takes one team.
CrazyDuck4u
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