Value of: John Gibson to the Leafs

[tomd]

For what? A .905 goalie making 6.4x5? All while having to give up multiple premium assets? Oh boy sign me up!
Comtois would have to be included to sweeten a deal for the other team, mitigate some of that risk.

I'll put you down as a "no" to acquiring Gibson. And that's a perfectly acceptable opinion. Not sure you have to keep repeating it though.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

For what? A .905 goalie making 6.4x5? All while having to give up multiple premium assets? Oh boy sign me up!
Comtois would have to be included to sweeten a deal for the other team, mitigate some of that risk.

22 overall and robertson/Sandin aren’t exactly premium assets

I’m fine talking comtois + gibson package

 

[lwvs84]

The cheapest (asset wise) options might be Mrazek(+?) for Grubauer (1 year removed from .922/1.35) or sign Kuemper (.921/2.54 this season), and all he'd cost is cap space.

 

[Sweetpotato]

"We want Gibson"
"Get ready to pay"
"But he's bad why would I pay that"
"If he's bad why would you want him"
"Because he's a #1 goalie"
"But I thought you said he's bad"
"......"

 

[Nylanderthal]

22 overall and robertson/Sandin aren’t exactly premium assets

I’m fine talking comtois + gibson package

Robertson is generally ranked around 20-25 for nhl asset prospects and sandin has been above expectations as an NHL d man at this early stage. Both along with the 24OA would be premium trade assets, unless your definition of premium is pieces that don’t get moved often, like top 10 picks or true can’t miss blue chippers. Neither of which I see being available for a guy like Gibson.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Why don't the leafs just resign Campbell and simply play better in front of him? Winning a singular playoff series is really not that hard if that's the bar they've set they can surely do it with Soup.

 

[bsu]

Robertson is generally ranked around 20-25 for nhl asset prospects and sandin has been above expectations as an NHL d man at this early stage. Both along with the 24OA would be premium trade assets, unless your definition of premium is pieces that don’t get moved often, like top 10 picks or true can’t miss blue chippers. Neither of which I see being available for a guy like Gibson.

Robertson is not in the top 20-25 for NHL asset prospects. Not even you believe that, how do you expect anyone to take you seriously after saying something like that?

 

[CanHeDoIt99]

If Dubas is interested in acquiring Gibson then that means the Toronto organization is ok with the risk-reward dynamic. He isn't going to go to Verbeek and try to lowball him. The deal will be fair from both sides under the assumption that Toronto is getting a top 10 goalie in the league who is under contract for 5 more years. If that isn't the working assumption then Toronto would not be interested in him in the first place.

Which is why I said I don't think there is a deal here to be made - because I don't see Dubas being interested fully knowing the risks and what the price would be.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Robertson is generally ranked around 20-25 for nhl asset prospects and sandin has been above expectations as an NHL d man at this early stage. Both along with the 24OA would be premium trade assets, unless your definition of premium is pieces that don’t get moved often, like top 10 picks or true can’t miss blue chippers. Neither of which I see being available for a guy like Gibson.

I put robertson slightly higher than perreault… I don’t consider perreault a premium asset

Middle 6 complimentary upside

 

[Nylanderthal]

I'll put you down as a "no" to acquiring Gibson. And that's a perfectly acceptable opinion. Not sure you have to keep repeating it though.

I haven’t repeated that, last night I was asking zegs2 what they’d be looking for in a deal, I just think expectations have to be tempered on what a return would be, and what the expected “cost” to “dump” mrazek would be. At most I can see Toronto doing ONE of those premium assets (24OA sandin Robertson) and one secondary piece like (holmberg abruzzese Steeves Anderson sda) mrazek and a roster piece (kerf Holl Muzz) I can’t see multiple young pieces being offered up for a guy with some legit question marks and who’s contract legitimately makes or breaks the leafs cup window.
If he’s the same 905 bum he’s been in Anaheim since signing that massive extension any chance the leafs have of breaking that first round streak let alone win a cup will be shot

Robertson is not in the top 20-25 for NHL asset prospects. Not even you believe that, how do you expect anyone to take you seriously after saying something like that?

Check THW and TSN for their mid season rankings

 

[bsu]

I haven’t repeated that, last night I was asking zegs2 what they’d be looking for in a deal, I just think expectations have to be tempered on what a return would be, and what the expected “cost” to “dump” mrazek would be. At most I can see Toronto doing ONE of those premium assets (24OA sandin Robertson) and one secondary piece like (holmberg abruzzese Steeves Anderson sda) mrazek and a roster piece (kerf Holl Muzz) I can’t see multiple young pieces being offered up for a guy with some legit question marks and who’s contract legitimately makes or breaks the leafs cup window.
If he’s the same 905 bum he’s been in Anaheim since signing that massive extension any chance the leafs have of breaking that first round streak let alone win a cup will be shot


Check THW and TSN for their mid season rankings

This one?

Blueline Power: Sabres' D-Man tops Button's annual top prospects list - TSN.ca

Craig Button has seen the future of the NHL and it’s in 3D. TSN’s Director of Scouting has defencemen 1-2-3 on his 2022 list of the Top 50 NHL-affiliated Prospects: No. 1 Owen Power of Buffalo, No. 2 Jake Sanderson of Ottawa, and No. 3 Simon Edvinsson of Detroit.

www.tsn.ca

He's not in the top 45.

Or are you talking about this one?

The NHL's Top 100 Prospects - Preseason Rankings - The Hockey Writers Latest News, Analysis & More

Every team has articles ranking their top prospects. But how do they all compare together? This list takes a look at the top-100 prospects.

thehockeywriters.com

That one has Jacob Perreault as a better prospect than Simon Edvinsson.... They have Edvinsson at #25... If thats where you are getting your information it shows. Perreault is a Ducks prospect and if I could multiply him I would trade 3 Perreaults for Edvinsson.

 

[Shane Diesel]

All it takes is watching a couple games…. Hell read a Colorado thread when they play Anaheim…. Or even a leafs vs ducks thread when Gibson is started….. it’s full of man it would be 8-0 if gibson wasn’t in.

You call me a clown, but argue a goaltender is good because of random comments made on an online forum?

LOL, nice to meet you Bozo.

Anything substantive from you ever?

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Why don't the leafs just resign Campbell and simply play better in front of him? Winning a singular playoff series is really not that hard if that's the bar they've set they can surely do it with Soup.

I thought leafs played well enough vs tampa…. I think Campbell threw it away.

Cooper read Campbell like a book all series long

 

[CanHeDoIt99]

This one?

Blueline Power: Sabres' D-Man tops Button's annual top prospects list - TSN.ca

Craig Button has seen the future of the NHL and it’s in 3D. TSN’s Director of Scouting has defencemen 1-2-3 on his 2022 list of the Top 50 NHL-affiliated Prospects: No. 1 Owen Power of Buffalo, No. 2 Jake Sanderson of Ottawa, and No. 3 Simon Edvinsson of Detroit.

www.tsn.ca

He's not in the top 45.

Robertson's stock plummeting seems odd to me given he was PPG at 20 years old in the AHL and only played in the AHL last year because of COVID.

Injuries have derailed his last couple of years but hes also produced at a higher clip at the same age as his brother Jason did (I don't think he'll be anything like this brother) but people acting like hes a 2nd round/B prospect is odd. CJ and Friedman have made it pretty clear the Leafs view Robertson/Niemela/Knies >> their first rounder in terms of preference and value to the org.

 

[thusk]

Why don't the leafs just resign Campbell and simply play better in front of him? Winning a singular playoff series is really not that hard if that's the bar they've set they can surely do it with Soup.

But leafs goal is not to win first round, its winning a cup... yes maybe you will finally be ablle to win a serie with campbell but i dont see how they can win a cup with a below average goalie.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

You call me a clown, but argue a goaltender is good because of random comments made on an online forum?

LOL, nice to meet you Bozo.

Anything substantive from you ever?

I call you a clown for saying gibson Stan’s

Plenty, try reading. Have plenty of good conversations with leaf fans, av fans, Sabre fans, oilers fans bout gibson.

Sorry if I hurt you feels

 

[Shane Diesel]

I call you a clown for saying gibson Stan’s

Plenty, try reading.

The only things I read from you are logical fallacies and the denial of objective truths.

 

[CanHeDoIt99]

But leafs goal is not to win first round, its winning a cup... yes maybe you will finally be ablle to win a serie with campbell but i dont see how they can win a cup with a below average goalie.

The problem is Campbell has been better than Gibson the past few years based on sv pct, and while some of that is surely team-related dumping assets and additional cap space for a "maybe" is not ideal asset management IMO. Gibson plays at a .905 next year after giving up Robertson and a late first for him - having to forgo signing some better options for forward depth because Gibson is making 2M more than Campbell would have made and potentially gives them worse results?

Of course - he could be better next year than Campbell, could return to being vezina/top 5 goalie in the league. The problem is you're making a bet, and an expensive one at that. What is the % chance hes a .915 or better next year? 50%? 70%? 30%?

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

But leafs goal is not to win first round, its winning a cup... yes maybe you will finally be ablle to win a serie with campbell but i dont see how they can win a cup with a below average goalie.

Yeah but with your salary structure a middle end starter at 5 mill is decent. That's just my opinion tho because elite goaltending is pretty dam expensive.

 

[lwvs84]

Mrazek+22 1st+conditional picks for Gibson+conditional picks. For every season Gibson is top 10 in sv% among starters ( 50%+ games started), Ducks get a 1stv round pick. For every season Gibson is bottom 10 among starters, Toronto gets a pick from the Ducks or can trade him back (1st if Ducks make playoffs, otherwise 2nd rounder). If Gibson becomes a top 10 goalie again, Ducks get a haul, if he is average no one gets anything, if he's below average Toronto gets picks back and has the option of trading him back.

I feel like I need to put in here otherwise people will get mad for some reason.

 

[thusk]

The problem is Campbell has been better than Gibson the past few years based on sv pct, and while some of that is surely team-related dumping assets and additional cap space for a "maybe" is not ideal asset management IMO. Gibson plays at a .905 next year after giving up Robertson and a late first for him - having to forgo signing some better options for forward depth because Gibson is making 2M more than Campbell would have made and potentially gives them worse results?

Of course - he could be better next year than Campbell, could return to being vezina/top 5 goalie in the league. The problem is you're making a bet, and an expensive one at that. What is the % chance hes a .915 or better next year? 50%? 70%? 30%?

Campbell was not better, he played in front a better team by far...

The chance than gibson came back as a 0.915 or better with actual leafs line up is over 70% for sure.

What i saw of Gibson look exactly what i saw of price in Montreal. A goalie in an awful team who try to carry the team by himself and trying to do too much because they know its the only chance they've got to win.

 

[CanHeDoIt99]

Campbell was not better, he played in front a better team by far...

The chance than gibson came back as a 0.915 or better with actual leafs line up is over 70% for sure.

What i saw of Gibson look exactly what i saw of price in Montreal. A goalie in an awful team who try to carry the team by himself and trying to do too much because they know its the only chance they've got to win.

How are you normalizing the stats of Campbell and Gibson? How come when Campbell played on a worse LA team his numbers were better than Gibson's were the past few years.

How come Anthony Stolarz had a .917 for the same team?

I'm not arguing against Gibson being better, he probably is. But i'm not sure its 70% likely he gives .915 or better for the leafs, probably closer to 50% in my eyes, since goaltending is voodoo. Mrazek had a .913 and then put up sub .900 in Toronto, a good defensive team as well. Sometimes goaltending is voodoo/the variance at the position is extreme. Its the reality of goaltending in the NHL - and its why I wouldn't give up more cap space as well as significant assets for the player given that risk.

 

[Nylanderthal]

The problem is Campbell has been better than Gibson the past few years based on sv pct, and while some of that is surely team-related dumping assets and additional cap space for a "maybe" is not ideal asset management IMO. Gibson plays at a .905 next year after giving up Robertson and a late first for him - having to forgo signing some better options for forward depth because Gibson is making 2M more than Campbell would have made and potentially gives them worse results?

Of course - he could be better next year than Campbell, could return to being vezina/top 5 goalie in the league. The problem is you're making a bet, and an expensive one at that. What is the % chance hes a .915 or better next year? 50%? 70%? 30%?

This. I’m fine risking one premium asset on the risk, but not two.

 

[lwvs84]

How are you normalizing the stats of Campbell and Gibson? How come when Campbell played on a worse LA team his numbers were better than Gibson's were the past few years.

How come Anthony Stolarz had a .917 for the same team?

I'm not arguing against Gibson being better, he probably is. But i'm not sure its 70% likely he gives .915 or better for the leafs, probably closer to 50% in my eyes, since goaltending is voodoo. Mrazek had a .913 and then put up sub .900 in Toronto, a good defensive team as well. Sometimes goaltending is voodoo/the variance at the position is extreme. Its the reality of goaltending in the NHL - and its why I wouldn't give up more cap space as well as significant assets for the player given that risk.

Just the Stolarz point, these are his games against better teams than the Ducks starting from the beginning of the season (when Ducks were better than at the end):
GA
2 Min
5 Edm
5 Vegas
2 St. Louis
3 NYR
3 Pit
6 Min
3 SJ
4 NYI
2 SJ
3 Cal
4 TB
3 LA
2 SJ

He just feasted on lower teams.

 

[thusk]

How are you normalizing the stats of Campbell and Gibson? How come when Campbell played on a worse LA team his numbers were better than Gibson's were the past few years.

I'm not arguing against Gibson being better, he probably is. But i'm not sure its 70% likely he gives .915 or better for the leafs, probably closer to 50% in my eyes, since goaltending is voodoo. Mrazek had a .913 and then put up sub .900 in Toronto, a good defensive team as well. Sometimes goaltending is voodoo/the variance at the position is extreme. Its the reality of goaltending in the NHL - and its why I wouldn't give up more cap space as well as significant assets for the player given that risk.

Lak never be worst than anaheim

Just get a kopitar and doughty unstead of a 35 geztlaf and lindholm, its a huge difference getting an elite 1st centre and an elite #1 d who can matchup every body on the line unstead of a player drop as a 3rd line caliber player and a good but not elite #1 d...


Gibson at 1 bad season and it was in 2019-2020.

2020-2021, he lost his #1 d during 68 % of the season and his second best D defensive side during 59 % of the season. Cant blame a goalie for that...


Last season
started really well with a 0.922% at january 31... but during his last 26 game, he was outshot by at least 11 or + 13 of 26 game ( 50% of the time)... just to give you an exemple, last 3 season game kuemper played in arizona, he get outsboot by 11+ about 19 time (17% of time). Can we really blame Gibson for anything