Player Discussion Joel Armia - Your favorite Finnish player Edition

[ahmedou]

Empty net GOAT

 

[Hoochi Papa]

Yeah I'm really not sold on retaining the services of the 32 year old who's only had 1.5 good seasons out of his most recent 4 year contract. Oh and he happens to be in a contract year right now.

I like Armia plenty and his recent form is exciting but Hughes is paid to manage assets and he needs to 'manage' to replace Armia with a younger, faster option even if it costs draft picks or futures. Armia's had a lot of bad games too. A lot.

Armia and Evans should happily chase the bag as FAs and I wish them well in their pursuit.

Pay for the skill, not will. It would be a very Bozovin thing to keep Armia and Evans at market value. It was this kind of deals that clogged the Canadiens' cap. After the 2021 extension, we saw Armia's true colours. He had an elite salary for a 4th line player, and most of the time he was a liability.

The same could happen with Evans. I don't feel comfortable paying him based on a contract year. If the combined salaries of Armia and Evans are 7-8 million, it will be a problem sooner or later. Based on Gallagher, it could be a problem as soon as the ink is dry.

Great players to have when they're relatively young and the price is right. But it's the type of deal you move on once contract has expired and let Islanders pay them in free agency. Armia proved it already. Kudos to them for being this good but if it's bottom-6 players that your team is missing, you're not doing it right. Overpay for Rantanen and let youngsters, borderline NHL players, veterans on PTO and less exciting free agents willing to play close to a minimum show what they got.

When Armia had one of the best 4th lines I've seen a while with Corey Perry and Eric Staal, BargainBin rewarded Armia, instead realizing that there are veteran players who are willing to change their role and play for peanuts to remain relevant. It was the skillset of Perry and Staal that made it so special. You could tell they still had a lot of offensive talent left while grinding with a grit. That is the type of player Montréal should search for.

 

[EXPOS123]

Pay for the skill, not will. It would be a very Bozovin thing to keep Armia and Evans at market value. It was this kind of deals that clogged the Canadiens' cap. After the 2021 extension, we saw Armia's true colours. He had an elite salary for a 4th line player, and most of the time he was a liability.

The same could happen with Evans. I don't feel comfortable paying him based on a contract year. If the combined salaries of Armia and Evans are 7-8 million, it will be a problem sooner or later. Based on Gallagher, it could be a problem as soon as the ink is dry.

Great players to have when they're relatively young and the price is right. But it's the type of deal you move on once contract has expired and let Islanders pay them in free agency. Armia proved it already. Kudos to them for being this good but if it's bottom-6 players that your team is missing, you're not doing it right. Overpay for Rantanen and let youngsters, borderline NHL players, veterans on PTO and less exciting free agents willing to play close to a minimum show what they got.

Great post - totally agree

 

[ReHabs]

Pay for the skill, not will. It would be a very Bozovin thing to keep Armia and Evans at market value. It was this kind of deals that clogged the Canadiens' cap. After the 2021 extension, we saw Armia's true colours. He had an elite salary for a 4th line player, and most of the time he was a liability.

The same could happen with Evans. I don't feel comfortable paying him based on a contract year. If the combined salaries of Armia and Evans are 7-8 million, it will be a problem sooner or later. Based on Gallagher, it could be a problem as soon as the ink is dry.

Great players to have when they're relatively young and the price is right. But it's the type of deal you move on once contract has expired and let Islanders pay them in free agency. Armia proved it already. Kudos to them for being this good but if it's bottom-6 players that your team is missing, you're not doing it right. Overpay for Rantanen and let youngsters, borderline NHL players, veterans on PTO and less exciting free agents willing to play close to a minimum show what they got.

Hoochi Papa! Well said.

With Armia we know what we have (an illusion) but with Evans especially I don't want to fall into the trap. See below, his shooting percentage the last two season, this season, and in bold his career average shooting percentage. Fool's gold to give him a UFA-style contract. Let him get it from the Isles or whatever, we need to focus on building the core and retaining Laine.

 

[Marioesque]

I’ve been saying for almost 2 years that they should resign him.
I cannot believe that they couldn’t trade him at the deadline last year to a contender. Teams must be kicking themselves. The guy is a beast on the boards and steals pucks like it’s food for his hungry family!


No team wins without a solid 4th liner.

This is why he's playing in the 4 nations tournament, not because of his offensive talent. He's a great defensive forward for 4th line and PK specialist. An important role player.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Pay for the skill, not will. It would be a very Bozovin thing to keep Armia and Evans at market value. It was this kind of deals that clogged the Canadiens' cap. After the 2021 extension, we saw Armia's true colours. He had an elite salary for a 4th line player, and most of the time he was a liability.

The same could happen with Evans. I don't feel comfortable paying him based on a contract year. If the combined salaries of Armia and Evans are 7-8 million, it will be a problem sooner or later. Based on Gallagher, it could be a problem as soon as the ink is dry.

Great players to have when they're relatively young and the price is right. But it's the type of deal you move on once contract has expired and let Islanders pay them in free agency. Armia proved it already. Kudos to them for being this good but if it's bottom-6 players that your team is missing, you're not doing it right. Overpay for Rantanen and let youngsters, borderline NHL players, veterans on PTO and less exciting free agents willing to play close to a minimum show what they got.

We have plenty of guys on cheap contracts. No need to scrape the bottom of the cap barrel up front like we did on defence for the past two years.

Look at the glue effect a competent young veteran like Carrier has had!

Within the system, Demidov replaces and upgrades on Dvorak.by bumping a 2nd liner to the 3rd.

We have two POSSIBLE guys to be the next regular bottom sixer and help the team, Beck and Kapanen. OK, say one of them works out. That replaces and upgrades on Pezzetta. I'm not even sure that either Beck or Kapanen is capable of 15-20 goals in the short term like Emil Heineman is, but we will see.

Evans is pretty much a must sign (or replace with EQUAL skill) at the age of 28-29.

Armia soon turning 32 I would only keep on a short contract. Pay market value for a 25-30 point PKer with size but avoid any long-term cap risk.

Same with Savard, one year deal at whatever a competent 3rd pairing guy should make. Hopefully Reinbacher or Struble is ready to step in by the 2026 TDL, to play valuable minutes.

I agree that Hughes' job is to manage assets, but the strategy is not the same as in 2022 when he had to tear things down (moving Toffoli and Lehkonen, for example) and go through 3 down years. Besides having two young veteran D-men who are still mobile, Suzuki turns 26 soon, Laine 27, Dach/Caufield/Newhook/Xhekaj 24. This is not the time to plan for more down years.

The salary cap is there to be used, smartly yes, but not hoarded in a Scrooge-like manner.

 

[windycity]

So frustrating to see this guy suddenly play his heart out in his contract year. Last season, he played like he didn't give a shit.

He's been playing very well since he came back last season from being sent down to the AHL

 

[Habs Halifax]

Pay for the skill, not will. It would be a very Bozovin thing to keep Armia and Evans at market value. It was this kind of deals that clogged the Canadiens' cap. After the 2021 extension, we saw Armia's true colours. He had an elite salary for a 4th line player, and most of the time he was a liability.

The same could happen with Evans. I don't feel comfortable paying him based on a contract year. If the combined salaries of Armia and Evans are 7-8 million, it will be a problem sooner or later. Based on Gallagher, it could be a problem as soon as the ink is dry.

Great players to have when they're relatively young and the price is right. But it's the type of deal you move on once contract has expired and let Islanders pay them in free agency. Armia proved it already. Kudos to them for being this good but if it's bottom-6 players that your team is missing, you're not doing it right. Overpay for Rantanen and let youngsters, borderline NHL players, veterans on PTO and less exciting free agents willing to play close to a minimum show what they got.

When Armia had one of the best 4th lines I've seen a while with Corey Perry and Eric Staal, BargainBin rewarded Armia, instead realizing that there are veteran players who are willing to change their role and play for peanuts to remain relevant. It was the skillset of Perry and Staal that made it so special. You could tell they still had a lot of offensive talent left while grinding with a grit. That is the type of player Montréal should search for.

I doubt Hughes is the type to overpay for middle or bottom of the line-up assets. Basically, the decision will be left with Evans and Armia and if they really want to stay, we are looking for team friendly deals. And that is not something more than 3 years.

If they are after max money and term, let them chase it with someone else. We have to be careful with Evans. This is not a Gallagher or Armia situation. Evans has been very consistent and trying to replace him is not easy. Armia can be replaced easier.

 

[Naslundforever]

All these talks about letting go everyone on the bottom 6 and replacing with ahl level rookies or theoretical ufa’s has me worried. Vets all stepped up this year and are winning games. Demidov will need a roster spot but not a single other prospect is outplaying current roster beyond Pezzetta imo.

Evans and Armia should be the hab’s pk going forward until kids leave no choice.

 

[Hoochi Papa]

Hoochi Papa! Well said.

With Armia we know what we have (an illusion) but with Evans especially I don't want to fall into the trap. See below, his shooting percentage the last two season, this season, and in bold his career average shooting percentage. Fool's gold to give him a UFA-style contract. Let him get it from the Isles or whatever, we need to focus on building the core and retaining Laine.

View attachment 965349

And if he bags twenty goals, it is written as a general fact and a seasonal average, when in reality it is the exception (with a shooting percentage this high). Similar thing happened with Josh Anderson. Single career best season turned him into a close to a 30 goal scorer. A unicorn worth Lafreniere and then some. These kind of narratives cost a fortune. Contract has no upside, but player is expected (and paid) to produce at career peak level.

Evans is 28. Close to the end of his physical prime. I wish him all the best and would love to keep him around. But these are the type of contracts that end up hurting your team. Hockey Gods gifted Canadiens Laine and were foolish enough to let Hughes pick Hutson at the 62nd pick. Extend them no matter what and leave a room for top-6 forward and/or top-4 defenseman. Build from top to bottom and see what's left. If there's no more wiggle room for Evans extension, use day 2 picks and B prospects and get 1 or 2 with salary retained. Just don't put yourself in the position where you lack high end talent because you paid bottom lines for career years and intangibles.

 

[Hoochi Papa]

All these talks about letting go everyone on the bottom 6 and replacing with ahl level rookies or theoretical ufa’s has me worried. Vets all stepped up this year and are winning games. Demidov will need a roster spot but not a single other prospect is outplaying current roster beyond Pezzetta imo.

Evans and Armia should be the hab’s pk going forward until kids leave no choice.

Armia is 31. He let this team down after last extension. If you're paid as a luxury 4th liner and whiff 2.5 seasons, you're not in a position to be discussed as a veteran with leadership qualities. We saw what happened after contract year last time.

It's the classic Armia cycle: 25% of time he looks like one of the greatest role players ever seen, 50% of time he is overpaid (sometimes a lot) and 25% of time he is injured. At the peak of the hot streak one will wonder how come he isn't perennial Selke candidate with 60-70 points. But in the end of the season you've gone through the same Joel Armia Experience we always do.

I don't want to break the bank and tell myself that this time around he'll remain consistent. That there'll be no more fluctuation in his output.

 

[Hoochi Papa]

We have plenty of guys on cheap contracts. No need to scrape the bottom of the cap barrel up front like we did on defence for the past two years.

Look at the glue effect a competent young veteran like Carrier has had!

Within the system, Demidov replaces and upgrades on Dvorak.by bumping a 2nd liner to the 3rd.

We have two POSSIBLE guys to be the next regular bottom sixer and help the team, Beck and Kapanen. OK, say one of them works out. That replaces and upgrades on Pezzetta. I'm not even sure that either Beck or Kapanen is capable of 15-20 goals in the short term like Emil Heineman is, but we will see.

Evans is pretty much a must sign (or replace with EQUAL skill) at the age of 28-29.

Armia soon turning 32 I would only keep on a short contract. Pay market value for a 25-30 point PKer with size but avoid any long-term cap risk.

Same with Savard, one year deal at whatever a competent 3rd pairing guy should make. Hopefully Reinbacher or Struble is ready to step in by the 2026 TDL, to play valuable minutes.

I agree that Hughes' job is to manage assets, but the strategy is not the same as in 2022 when he had to tear things down (moving Toffoli and Lehkonen, for example) and go through 3 down years. Besides having two young veteran D-men who are still mobile, Suzuki turns 26 soon, Laine 27, Dach/Caufield/Newhook/Xhekaj 24. This is not the time to plan for more down years.

The salary cap is there to be used, smartly yes, but not hoarded in a Scrooge-like manner.

This is very likely the last substantial contract for Armia. He may not want to go the team friendly route. Same thing with Evans. It's not tearing down the team if you don't overpay bottom-sixers at the free agency. They have earned their contracts but those come with a great risk and an assumption that Evans will score close to career peak numbers.

These two aren't Toffoli or Lehkonen, not even close. And no one said they would walk in free agency just for the sake of hoarding cap space. As if it wasn't used on something else. Teams value veteran presence, no doubt about it. But it shouldn't be valued to the point where teams pay extra just for the locker room intangibles.

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

Armia above 2m is waste of money , when you a forward and you play ur better hockey without the puck , says it all.

 

[Sorinth]

Hoochi Papa! Well said.

With Armia we know what we have (an illusion) but with Evans especially I don't want to fall into the trap. See below, his shooting percentage the last two season, this season, and in bold his career average shooting percentage. Fool's gold to give him a UFA-style contract. Let him get it from the Isles or whatever, we need to focus on building the core and retaining Laine.

View attachment 965349

The shooting percentage won't stay at 20%, but it's not like that's the only difference in his play this year compared to years past. I'm not aware of any public site that tracks this info, but my feeling is the number of breakaways and 2 on 1s has gone way up this year. So the real question is whether that is sustainable or not.

Just look at the past 10ish games, his S% and point production has dropped off significantly compared to the rest of the season, yet his play, his value, his contributions to us winning games hasn't dropped off. There's a lot of value to be had in carrying the play even when you don't score because it creates momentum, it tires the opponents out faster, it creates o-zone draws so that your top lines have an easier task, and doing all that while starting in the D zone as much as Evans does is extremely valuable.

 

[BaseballCoach]

This is very likely the last substantial contract for Armia. He may not want to go the team friendly route. Same thing with Evans. It's not tearing down the team if you don't overpay bottom-sixers at the free agency. They have earned their contracts but those come with a great risk and an assumption that Evans will score close to career peak numbers.

These two aren't Toffoli or Lehkonen, not even close. And no one said they would walk in free agency just for the sake of hoarding cap space. As if it wasn't used on something else. Teams value veteran presence, no doubt about it. But it shouldn't be valued to the point where teams pay extra just for the locker room intangibles.

You seem to be arguing agaInst stuff I did not say. I never said Evans and Armia brought "intangibles" only. Strong defence and PK while scoring 30 points in a 4th line role is not at all intangible, it is actually very valuable on the ice.

I never said to pay Evans like he will always shoot 23%.

I never said to give long- nor even medium-term deals to Armia or Savard.

And I never said not to use cap space on top six players.

But you can't win with the mindset and cap structure of the 2020 Blackhawks, 2021 Leafs, 2024
Lightning, with massive contracts for a few stars and a scarcity of solid supporting players making winning on-ice plays.

 

[Hoochi Papa]

You seem to be arguing agaInst stuff I did not say. I never said Evans and Armia brought "intangibles" only. Strong defence and PK while scoring 30 points in a 4th line role is not at all intangible, it is actually very valuable on the ice.

I never said to pay Evans like he will always shoot 23%.

I never said to give long- nor even medium-term deals to Armia or Savard.

And I never said not to use cap space on top six players.

But you can't win with the mindset and cap structure of the 2020 Blackhawks, 2021 Leafs, 2024
Lightning, with massive contracts for a few stars and a scarcity of solid supporting players making winning on-ice plays.

But they will pay for it anyway. This is how the free agent market works. Contract years matter and define part of the future salary. The same goes for contract lengths. Of course, each of us would like players on suitable contracts and reasonable wages, but in the current circumstances such contracts are quite unlikely.

I used top-6 as an example of where to save money. When using the Blackhawks and Lightning as examples, it's also good to remember that those selected examples are from the post-peak or quasi-dynasty era. There was also a time when the contract structure was very profitable.

 

[calder candidate]

I have defended Armia for years, I think what he bring is hard to replace, I have no issue to re sign him I don’t even have any issue going to 4M$ but because of is age I wouldn’t go more than 2 and ideally only 1 years.

 

[Don D]

And if he bags twenty goals, it is written as a general fact and a seasonal average, when in reality it is the exception (with a shooting percentage this high). Similar thing happened with Josh Anderson. Single career best season turned him into a close to a 30 goal scorer. A unicorn worth Lafreniere and then some. These kind of narratives cost a fortune. Contract has no upside, but player is expected (and paid) to produce at career peak level.

Evans is 28. Close to the end of his physical prime. I wish him all the best and would love to keep him around. But these are the type of contracts that end up hurting your team. Hockey Gods gifted Canadiens Laine and were foolish enough to let Hughes pick Hutson at the 62nd pick. Extend them no matter what and leave a room for top-6 forward and/or top-4 defenseman. Build from top to bottom and see what's left. If there's no more wiggle room for Evans extension, use day 2 picks and B prospects and get 1 or 2 with salary retained. Just don't put yourself in the position where you lack high end talent because you paid bottom lines for career years and intangibles.

It is easy for fans to "fall in love" with their players and over evaluate them, salary and trade wise!
At times, trades are suggested by fans that no opposing GM would ever consider. Habs are on fire lately and the desire to retain certain players may seem enticing, but ill advised. The Golden Knights do not seem to fall prey to sentimentality when some of their players reached free agency.
Agree with Hoochi that it would be good to retain some players, but not at the long term detriment of the team. Limit sentimental contracts!

 

[Naslundforever]

Armia is 31. He let this team down after last extension. If you're paid as a luxury 4th liner and whiff 2.5 seasons, you're not in a position to be discussed as a veteran with leadership qualities. We saw what happened after contract year last time.

It's the classic Armia cycle: 25% of time he looks like one of the greatest role players ever seen, 50% of time he is overpaid (sometimes a lot) and 25% of time he is injured. At the peak of the hot streak one will wonder how come he isn't perennial Selke candidate with 60-70 points. But in the end of the season you've gone through the same Joel Armia Experience we always do.

I don't want to break the bank and tell myself that this time around he'll remain consistent. That there'll be no more fluctuation in his output.

It’s a valid opinion, but habs still need to improve on the situation before just hoping someone signs or magically progresses. These guys are winning.