Confirmed with Link: Joe Veleno loaned to Malmo for 20/21 season

[MBH]

I just don't see to many teams who have two #1-2 D on their top pair. Some teams are that fortunate, but its not necessary to win a cup in this league. Most teams have 2 really good D and 2 solid defensive d man, they play 1 of the top guys on the top pair and the other on the 2nd pair and plug in the other 2 solid defensive guys. Regardless if they are RD or LD. A guy like Hronek, you find yourself a solid defensive D and you got a pair who can play 22+ mins a night. You don't need to spend top 5 draft picks to get that guy. Same thing with Seider if he becomes what we are anticipating at this point. You can find solid defensive LD guys all day long that aren't going to make your team any weaker attacking the left side. You can pay these guys 3.5-4.5 mill instead of the 8+ Makar will eventually get. It would not be worth having 2 Makars one the same pairing. 16+ mill in cap on 1 D pair for what? You might just rather have a bigger bodied much cheaper defensive guy paired with him.

The next problem is, if you end getting lucky and drafting yourself a Makar or Hughes. Then what happens to Hronek or Seider? He doesn't get much if any PP time. These guys need opportunity to reach their best and continue to play at their peak. There is a point of diminishing return. Line 1, Seider makes most the offensive plays/outlets/etc. Line 2 Hronek makes most the offensive the plays/outlets/etc. Good players need the puck often to be good. Consider forwards for a minute, 3 Barzals isn't the most ideal line. You end up paying the cap hit to own all 3 of those Barzals but you don't end up getting 3 Barzals worth of impact. You just need some traditional opportunistic wingers (snipers or power forwards) when you have a guy who has the puck on his stick constantly. Guys who don't need to be highly involved with the puck and will contribute when given the opportunity by a player like Barzal. If you have a center like Scheifele who isn't your typical play making C then you might need a winger more like Connor or Ehlers who can split carrying the puck and execute zone entry and can create separation in the offensive zone. Scheifele likes to be around the net and shoot the puck more so than make plays.

You don't need to be drafting top 5 to land an ideal D partner for either of our 2 guys unless you don't think Seider is going to end up being a #1. Seider is a guy I'm willing to put all my marbles on though and draft C if there isn't a clear BPA.

Regardless, that's where we'll be drafting.
Hronek isn't really a top pairing guy, anyway, in my book. Not yet, anyway.

I wanted to draft Jake Sanderson this year.
Four years from now, I imagined a top 4 including

Johansson-Seider
Sanderson-Hronek
Maybe you flipflop those pairings.
Maybe McIsaac or Cholowski takes that spot Johansson has.

But Seider and Sanderson would each play 23-26 minutes a night, all the big minutes.
Both guys are potential transition monsters. They stop the attack and turn it around.

I look at a team like the Blues-
Pietrangelo/Parayko/Dunn/Bouwmeester
Or even the Caps
Carlson/Niskanen/Orlov

We get a big-minute defenseman on each side LS/RS... takes the heat off Hronek a bit. And then we've got a lot of options to fill the other roles... Johansson/Cholowski/Tuomisto/Lindstrom/McIsaac, etc etc etc

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Regardless, that's where we'll be drafting.
Hronek isn't really a top pairing guy, anyway, in my book. Not yet, anyway.

I wanted to draft Jake Sanderson this year.
Four years from now, I imagined a top 4 including

Johansson-Seider
Sanderson-Hronek
Maybe you flipflop those pairings.
Maybe McIsaac or Cholowski takes that spot Johansson has.

But Seider and Sanderson would each play 23-26 minutes a night, all the big minutes.
Both guys are potential transition monsters. They stop the attack and turn it around.

I look at a team like the Blues-
Pietrangelo/Parayko/Dunn/Bouwmeester
Or even the Caps
Carlson/Niskanen/Orlov

We get a big-minute defenseman on each side LS/RS... takes the heat off Hronek a bit. And then we've got a lot of options to fill the other roles... Johansson/Cholowski/Tuomisto/Lindstrom/McIsaac, etc etc etc

I'm 90% confident Johansson & Lindstrom have 400+ gp (or better) NHL careers.

60-75% confident for McIsaac, 400+

50-55% confident for Tuomisto, 300+

40% Cholo, 250-300+

 

[haulinbass]

Regardless, that's where we'll be drafting.
Hronek isn't really a top pairing guy, anyway, in my book. Not yet, anyway.

I wanted to draft Jake Sanderson this year.
Four years from now, I imagined a top 4 including

Johansson-Seider
Sanderson-Hronek
Maybe you flipflop those pairings.
Maybe McIsaac or Cholowski takes that spot Johansson has.

But Seider and Sanderson would each play 23-26 minutes a night, all the big minutes.
Both guys are potential transition monsters. They stop the attack and turn it around.

I look at a team like the Blues-
Pietrangelo/Parayko/Dunn/Bouwmeester
Or even the Caps
Carlson/Niskanen/Orlov

We get a big-minute defenseman on each side LS/RS... takes the heat off Hronek a bit. And then we've got a lot of options to fill the other roles... Johansson/Cholowski/Tuomisto/Lindstrom/McIsaac, etc etc etc

I can't argue having a guy like Sanderson wouldn't be great. I easily see the appeal there. But at this point and time unless a D is easily BPA I personally have to stick with the idea a top flight center is this teams #1 need right now. I also agree spending a lot of picks on D first is the most ideal way to start a rebuild for the same reasons you mentioned. But in this case, I think we have our 2 guys and we have already drafted some really good D prospects that I'm hopeful 1 or 2 will end up decent for us.

Either way, we are all rooting for the same end result.

 

[haulinbass]

I'm 90% confident Johansson & Lindstrom have 400+ gp (or better) NHL careers.

60-75% confident for McIsaac, 400+

50-55% confident for Tuomisto, 300+

40% Cholo, 250-300+

All we need is 2 of those guys to end up being good #4s and we are in good shape. It's starting to get exciting being a Wings fan again.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

I'm 90% confident Johansson & Lindstrom have 400+ gp (or better) NHL careers.

60-75% confident for McIsaac, 400+

50-55% confident for Tuomisto, 300+

40% Cholo, 250-300+

That'd be great, but I highly doubt that happens.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

That'd be great, but I highly doubt that happens.

Which one(s) concern you?

What would your NHL probabilities %'s look like for all the Dmen?

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

All we need is 2 of those guys to end up being good #4s and we are in good shape. It's starting to get exciting being a Wings fan again.

I'm excited too, however I'm cautiously optimistic on the "all we need is 2 of those guys to be good #4's".



Seider - almost foregone conclusion he's a future top 2...possibility of #1, but I'd say good/very good future #2 (for now).

Hronek - I think he ends up a high end #3 or possibly very low end #2 at best...his Dzone play etc. needs a fair amt. of work.

Johansson - this is the kid I'm really anxious to see in NA...for now guessing very high end #4. Possibly upto #3, too soon, TBD.

McIsaac - injuries etc/missed development time (same as Kronwall). #4a

Lindstrom - #4 or high end #5, good shutdown D


= 2A + 3A + 3B + 4A + 4B. (took the lower estimations of Seider & Hronek + higher estimates on Johansson/Mc/Lindstrom... = 2 good/very good 2nd pairs & a 4b.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
Tuomisto - still quite a ways away, #5/6 too soon, TBD

Cholo - traded/packaged

-------------------------------------------------------
Wallinder - too soon, guessing #4 for now.
Viro - too soon, guessing #6 for now.

looking at this depth chart, I want Werenski in 3yrs as undisputed #1, allows everyone to Slot Properly and/or playing below their "true" rank, which is a huge advantage, especially w/injuries.

 

[MBH]

I can't argue having a guy like Sanderson wouldn't be great. I easily see the appeal there. But at this point and time unless a D is easily BPA I personally have to stick with the idea a top flight center is this teams #1 need right now. I also agree spending a lot of picks on D first is the most ideal way to start a rebuild for the same reasons you mentioned. But in this case, I think we have our 2 guys and we have already drafted some really good D prospects that I'm hopeful 1 or 2 will end up decent for us.

Either way, we are all rooting for the same end result.

For me, it's rare to have a Winger/Center/Defenseman in the same range, and still want to draft the Winger.
They have to be substantially better. If it's close, give me the guy who plays down the middle.

 

[Gniwder]

I just don't see to many teams who have two #1-2 D on their top pair. Some teams are that fortunate, but its not necessary to win a cup in this league.

Odd thing to say when Tampa just won the cup. The Caps had Niskanen and Carlson. You can never have too much talent on the back end.

It wouldn't upset me if the team picked a center, but with the D available in this draft, it's hard to pass up.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I'm 90% confident Johansson & Lindstrom have 400+ gp (or better) NHL careers.

60-75% confident for McIsaac, 400+

50-55% confident for Tuomisto, 300+

40% Cholo, 250-300+

I.. I think that's way overconfident about Lindström. Right not he's a dime-a-dozen, fill in as #6-7 type D. Nothing stands out much. He could be out of the NHL if he doesn't impress this coming season.
Johansson looks solid as heck, a bit early though, I would say 70-80% confidence for me.

Way less confident about the rest of the guys, but I'd put Cholo ahead of McIsaac and Tuomisto.

 

[Oddbob]

I.. I think that's way overconfident about Lindström. Right not he's a dime-a-dozen, fill in as #6-7 type D. Nothing stands out much. He could be out of the NHL if he doesn't impress this coming season.
Johansson looks solid as heck, a bit early though, I would say 70-80% confidence for me.

Way less confident about the rest of the guys, but I'd put Cholo ahead of McIsaac and Tuomisto.

I persoanlly have little thought of Lindstrom being anything more than a very short lived injury fill in. From what we have seen from camps and preseason thus far with the Wings, I didn't see anything that made him stand out more than others and in fact thought he was one of the ones who looked worse than some.

McIsaac to me seems like someone who is going to be derailed by injuries. If he could stay healthy, than maybe a 4-6 at best.

 

[Killerjas]

Yeah if I would bet my money on not making it to the NHL, it would be McIsaac. Injuries are a pain in the butt

 

[raymond23]

I'm excited too, however I'm cautiously optimistic on the "all we need is 2 of those guys to be good #4's".



Seider - almost foregone conclusion he's a future top 2...possibility of #1, but I'd say good/very good future #2 (for now).

Hronek - I think he ends up a high end #3 or possibly very low end #2 at best...his Dzone play etc. needs a fair amt. of work.

Johansson - this is the kid I'm really anxious to see in NA...for now guessing very high end #4. Possibly upto #3, too soon, TBD.

McIsaac - injuries etc/missed development time (same as Kronwall). #4a

Lindstrom - #4 or high end #5, good shutdown D


= 2A + 3A + 3B + 4A + 4B. (took the lower estimations of Seider & Hronek + higher estimates on Johansson/Mc/Lindstrom... = 2 good/very good 2nd pairs & a 4b.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
Tuomisto - still quite a ways away, #5/6 too soon, TBD

Cholo - traded/packaged

-------------------------------------------------------
Wallinder - too soon, guessing #4 for now.
Viro - too soon, guessing #6 for now.

looking at this depth chart, I want Werenski in 3yrs as undisputed #1, allows everyone to Slot Properly and/or playing below their "true" rank, which is a huge advantage, especially w/injuries.

I learned my lesson long ago with the days of Smith, Ouellet, Sproul, Bachman, Nedomlel, etc.

Outside of Hronek and Seider, we'd be lucky to get 1 quality NHL defender out of this group. I hope you're right tho.

 

[Gniwder]

I.. I think that's way overconfident about Lindström. Right not he's a dime-a-dozen, fill in as #6-7 type D. Nothing stands out much. He could be out of the NHL if he doesn't impress this coming season.
Johansson looks solid as heck, a bit early though, I would say 70-80% confidence for me.

Way less confident about the rest of the guys, but I'd put Cholo ahead of McIsaac and Tuomisto.

They'll give him more than one season. Who would you rather have, Biega or Lindstrom? Keep in mind that Nemeth, Stall, and Merrill are all UFA and possible TDL bait. At worst Lindstrom is a minimum salary #7D for the time being.

I'm with you on Johansson, I think he winds up being a solid middle pair guy. He doesn't get a lot of attention because he's not flashy or physical, but he plays a steady game.

I think Cholo winds up in Europe within 4 years, but McIsaac concerns me even more. He barely got hit and his shoulder gave out, I'm not sure his body can handle the NHL.

 

[Gniwder]

I learned my lesson long ago with the days of Smith, Ouellet, Sproul, Bachman, Nedomlel, etc.

Outside of Hronek and Seider, we'd be lucky to get 1 quality NHL defender out of this group. I hope you're right tho.

I mentioned this in a different thread, but Bowey was also a very highly touted prospect when he was with the Caps organization. Defensemen are much harder to predict than forwards.

I think Johansson is the other one that makes the NHL, beyond that everyone else is a crap shoot, which is why I'd like to see a LhD with the 1st rounder this draft.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I learned my lesson long ago with the days of Smith, Ouellet, Sproul, Bachman, Nedomlel, etc.

Outside of Hronek and Seider, we'd be lucky to get 1 quality NHL defender out of this group. I hope you're right tho.

Regarding the above, Smith was regarded as having a high ceiling. I really don't know why Xavier Oullet was ever highly regarded. He was so similar to Danny Groulx as a player. Sproul was a disappointment because the tools were there but the brains weren't. I'd also in part blame our lack of success with these picks on our player development program to some degree. It's worth looking at what we did and comparing it to more successful organizations' methods.

Before his injuries I'd have pegged McIsaac to be a steady 4-5-6 defenseman. I really hope he can get past his injury issues because he could have become a Nemeth style defenseman.

Albert Johansson I'm pretty confident will be a player. He's an elite level skater, great passer, and very smart and manages the puck well. He's also getting a lot bigger and will probably top out around 6'1" or 6'2" 195-200ish. I'm confident that he'll be a player in the league and could be a very good 2nd pair guy.

 

[jaster]

Which one(s) concern you?

What would your NHL probabilities %'s look like for all the Dmen?

This wasn't directed at me, but fun little exercise. I'm not sure what the %s mean exactly.... probability of them reaching the level I project for them? If that's the case, I'd break them down as such:

Johansson - I'm bullish on this kid, like many. I think he has a good chance to be a top-4 type who could pair well with Seider. I give it 50%. And then 25% he winds up being less than that but still an NHLer. And 25% he washes out. I'm probably too high on him, given general probabilities though.

Lindstrom - I'm also bullish on this kid, more than most. I don't think he's anything more than a bottom-pairing type, but I think he could be a solid one who is around the league for a while. 50% chance. And 50% he washes out.

Cholowski - Very bearish on Cholo. Not a fan. With his offensive ability, I expect him to be a "Quad A" player during his career (to borrow from baseball). His upside will result in him getting several chances and maybe find a niche along the way. He'll move around a lot in his career and see a lot of AHL time. 80% chance, with a 10% chance he's more than that and a 10% chance he washes out completely.

McIsaac - Also very bearish on McIsaac. He's not very good in his own end, gets lost too quickly when the other team has possession. Additionally, he's injury-prone and has lost a lot of development time. I rate his future similar to that of Cholowski. Quad-A type.
70% chance, with a 10% chance he's more than that and a 20% chance he washes out completely.

Tuomisto - Can't really say, haven't seen enough of him. But based on his skating, I don't expect him to be an NHL regular at this point.

 

[jaster]

The Wings are in a bad way when it comes to defensemen. They do need an elite center, no question, but they're need on defense is slightly higher. The Athletic did a great breakdown I think last year on what it takes to be a contender, using data and metrics. There are a number of boxes that need to be checked. They make clear that you can skip a few and still be a contender, but the more you have, the better your chances are.

You need....

Elite #1 D
#1 D (Seider?)
#2 D (Hronek?)
#2 D
Top-4 D (Johansson?)

Still need an Elite #1D (unless Seider can reach that level, in which case we need a #1 D) and a #2 D. Maybe Wallinder surprises and can get in the above mix. I personally do not see any of Lindstrom, Cholowski, McIsaac, or Tuomisto entering the equation. All of them have major factors that hold them back.

For centers, you need an Elite #1 C and a Top-line C. Still need that Elite #1 C.

 

[raymond23]

The Wings are in a bad way when it comes to defensemen. They do need an elite center, no question, but they're need on defense is slightly higher. The Athletic did a great breakdown I think last year on what it takes to be a contender, using data and metrics. There are a number of boxes that need to be checked. They make clear that you can skip a few and still be a contender, but the more you have, the better your chances are.

You need....

Elite #1 D
#1 D (Seider?)
#2 D (Hronek?)
#2 D
Top-4 D (Johansson?)

Still need an Elite #1D (unless Seider can reach that level, in which case we need a #1 D) and a #2 D. Maybe Wallinder surprises and can get in the above mix. I personally do not see any of Lindstrom, Cholowski, McIsaac, or Tuomisto entering the equation. All of them have major factors that hold them back.

For centers, you need an Elite #1 C and a Top-line C. Still need that Elite #1 C.

Is that really what it takes to be a contender? That seems way over the top to me.

EDIT: Missed your mention that you can "skip a few", that makes a little more sense now.

 

[jaster]

Is that really what it takes to be a contender? That seems way over the top to me.

EDIT: Missed your mention that you can "skip a few", that makes a little more sense now.

Yeah, let me cover that qualifier in more detail. Here's their full list of what teams should be targeting.....

• Elite first-line centre that’s among the very best players in the world.
• Elite first-line winger to support the elite centre.
• Two other top-line wingers on each of the top two lines.
• Top-line centre to play behind the elite centre.
• Two more top-six forwards for depth in the middle six.
• Elite No. 1 defenceman.
• A second No. 1 defenceman to play behind him.
• A top pairing defenceman to help anchor a strong second pair with the No. 2.
• Another top-pairing calibre defender to crush soft minutes on the third pair.
• A top 10 calibre starting goaltender.

The Athletic broke down in detail the previous 10 Cup winners, and here's the relevant context as it pertains to the list above:

A team can get away with not meeting the criteria in one area if they surpass it elsewhere and certain areas are more negotiable than others. Only the elite center (9/10), elite defenceman (officially 8/10, but one of the misses is because Keith had an off year), and top pairing defenceman on the second pair (9/10) were found on 80 percent of the champions. Every other archetype on the checklist was there six out of 10 times.

A top 10 goalie would be great, but as long as he’s an above average starter it’s probably fine, especially with a strong defence in front of him. Having an elite winger on the top line is ideal, but a team can probably get away with someone that’s a shade below if they have strong depth in the middle six.

If you do the math based on the numbers in that first paragraph (how often a team checked each box), you'll find that across 10 Championship teams, 68 of a potential 100 boxes were checked. That averages out to about 7 out of 10 per team. And there is an emphasis on Elite C, Elite D, and a top-pairing dman on the 2nd pair. But yeah, you can slip on 3 of the 10 and still be a contender, based on this study.

 

[Gniwder]

• Elite No. 1 defenceman.
• A second No. 1 defenceman to play behind him.
• A top pairing defenceman to help anchor a strong second pair with the No. 2.
• Another top-pairing calibre defender to crush soft minutes on the third pair.

Thank you, that is what I said earlier, you can never have enough Dmen.

For the sake of argument, let's just assume Seider is a legit first pair D, there still needs to be one more.... preferably LhD.

This team is a long ways from being a legit Cup contender.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Yeah, let me cover that qualifier in more detail. Here's their full list of what teams should be targeting.....

• Elite first-line centre that’s among the very best players in the world.
• Elite first-line winger to support the elite centre.
• Two other top-line wingers on each of the top two lines.
• Top-line centre to play behind the elite centre.
• Two more top-six forwards for depth in the middle six.
• Elite No. 1 defenceman.
• A second No. 1 defenceman to play behind him.
• A top pairing defenceman to help anchor a strong second pair with the No. 2.
• Another top-pairing calibre defender to crush soft minutes on the third pair.
• A top 10 calibre starting goaltender.

The Athletic broke down in detail the previous 10 Cup winners, and here's the relevant context as it pertains to the list above:


If you do the math based on the numbers in that first paragraph (how often a team checked each box), you'll find that across 10 Championship teams, 68 of a potential 100 boxes were checked. That averages out to about 7 out of 10 per team. And there is an emphasis on Elite C, Elite D, and a top-pairing dman on the 2nd pair. But yeah, you can slip on 3 of the 10 and still be a contender, based on this study.

I'm really optimistic about Seider and think he has the potential to be a truly elite defenseman. He's blown expectations out of the water in his D+1 and D+2 seasons, both of which were in 2 different mens leagues. But looking at our roster and prospect depth chart we're only going to check off 2 or 3 of those things (Top pair/elite D, top line wingers, top 6 forwards in the middle 6)

3 more years without the playoffs is my guess. We'll approach the Dead Things streak of years missing the postseason before we get back in it.

 

[RedMenace]

Man, did Joey V switch to defense when I wasn't looking?

 

[odin1981]

I learned my lesson long ago with the days of Smith, Ouellet, Sproul, Bachman, Nedomlel, etc.

Outside of Hronek and Seider, we'd be lucky to get 1 quality NHL defender out of this group. I hope you're right tho.

I wanted Nedomlel to develop into a #5-6 so badly for a big, bruising, and reliable bottom pair beast. Sadly it didn't turn out that way.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Man, did Joey V switch to defense when I wasn't looking?

That was the big Festivus surprise for 2021, like Murder Hornets etc. this year. The cat's outta the bag now via WikiLeaks.