Joe Pavelski Officially Retires

[Pinkfloyd]

Not the right time to be criticizing a player either. Retirement threads should be full of glazing (as the kids say).

I'll add that no player is free of playoff hiccups. But Pavelski had substantially fewer of them than many of his teammates, and many series and runs where he was excellent. Like Couture, he was one of those guys who came into the NHL as a 3-zone, all-around player.

For someone like ON4 to give Pavs a pass for his playoff hiccups when his focus is on the playoff games that matter when he went 0-for on a manned net in the Finals just completely discredits all the other critiques related to such things.

 

[Alaskanice]

In the end, I don't think "retiring as an X" really means anything.

Signing a ceremonial one-day contract has always seemed so pointlessly gimmicky that it doesn't have any impact on me - it's not even an old tradition.

It is a gimmick. It’s for the fans. Pointless? That’s the point. It’s for the fans.

 

[Officer1473]

Sign him to a retirement contract to reach the cap floor?

I'll miss the slow little fella with his physics defying stickery.

 

[DG93]

Thanks for everything Pavs, enjoy retirement!

 

[karltonian]

For someone like ON4 to give Pavs a pass for his playoff hiccups when his focus is on the playoff games that matter when he went 0-for on a manned net in the Finals just completely discredits all the other critiques related to such things.

Yup the reason we moved on from his is that he was completely eliminated in the finals by Pittsburgh's speed and defense. In the end the physical tools do matter.

 

[tiburon12]

For someone like ON4 to give Pavs a pass for his playoff hiccups when his focus is on the playoff games that matter when he went 0-for on a manned net in the Finals just completely discredits all the other critiques related to such things.

you could actually make a case that Pavelski, while rising to the challenges of the playoffs, rarely excelled when the stakes got to their highest.

'16 finals is a good example. But let's look further at the 16 years he made the playoffs:

2008 - Not a major team contributor but made his mark in these playoffs, including the game 5 OT winner against Dallas that started his legacy. 0pts in elimination.

2009 - 1pt in the whole series. 0 in elimination

2010 - 2nd "real" playoffs and he's a beast against COL and DET...up until we needed to close out DET where he had 0pts. 2pts against CHI where we were the worse team, 1pt in elimination.

2011 - 10pts in 18 games, but 1pt in critical games 4-7 against DET after going up 3-0. 2pts in elimination.

2012 - 0pts in the entire series. Everyone played bad and we weren't good, but still.

2013 - Big part of sweeping the Canucks with 8pts in 4 games, then goes goalless against the Kings with 4 assists (2 primary). And we all remember him not lifting the puck..... 1 pt in elimination

2014 - 6pts but 0 in the final 3 games when we needed him.

2016 - already stated

2017 - 4pts, 3 coming in the game we won 7-0. No other goals. 0 pts in the final two games, including elimination.

2018 - 5pts in 4 games vs ANA, but only 3 in 6 games against Vegas. Only had points in wins, including that his only goal was an inconsequential 4th goal on the PP in the 3rd on a game we won 4-0. 0 pts in the final two games, including elimination.

2019 - Only 4pts in the 1st round against Vegas (though 2 were garbage time in a game we had already won). Then he got injured so I can't in good faith hold the Blues series against him. Dead during elimination.

2020 - Very streaky, but did score some major goals. Only really disappeared vs vegas, but he showed up in the final. I think this is his best playoffs ever. 0pts in elimination

2021 - Dallas didnt qualify, forgot about that

2022 - 6pts in 7 games, lost to a better team. Another good playoffs for him. 1pt in elimination

2023 - 14pts in 14 games, 4 coming in a game they lost somehow. But only 4 points in the series against Vegas. He did have a sweet OT winner in Game 5 though. 0pts in elimination.

2024 - entirely disappeared 0pts in entire series vs edm.


So, in the 16x he made the playoffs, he was was eliminated every time (obv). But in those 15 elimination games (2019 doesn't count), he only had 5pts TOTAL (or, only had pts in 4 of those). Further, he seemed to really struggle in Teal when his team needed to close out series, with 10, 11, 14 standing out.

I think this is a sobering look at a player we always thought came through for us. In fact, it seems like he repeatedly did not come through when it actually mattered most. His value dropped significantly vs Detroit, LA, and Vegas - 3 teams we played a bunch in his tenure.

my conclusion from all of this is that Pavelski provided some major moments for this franchise and we let that overshadow him not showing up in the most critical games. And I think his excellent twilight play in the bubble finals tricked people into thinking he was this uber-clutch hero when in reality he was just very clutch.

Side note - I think you could also make a similar case about Bergeron being a giant choker, but that's a different summer day.

 

[OrrNumber4]

But in those 15 elimination games (2019 doesn't count), he only had 5pts TOTAL (or, only had pts in 4 of those). Further, he seemed to really struggle in Teal when his team needed to close out series, with 10, 11, 14 standing out.

That's damning if true, but it doesn't pass the smell test. I suspect that there is some equivocation going on here with "elimination games".

 

[Pinkfloyd]

That's damning if true, but it doesn't pass the smell test. I suspect that there is some equivocation going on here with "elimination games".

This is such a weaselly cop out to just not admit your biases.

 

[Alaskanice]

you could actually make a case that Pavelski, while rising to the challenges of the playoffs, rarely excelled when the stakes got to their highest.

'16 finals is a good example. But let's look further at the 16 years he made the playoffs:

2008 - Not a major team contributor but made his mark in these playoffs, including the game 5 OT winner against Dallas that started his legacy. 0pts in elimination.

2009 - 1pt in the whole series. 0 in elimination

2010 - 2nd "real" playoffs and he's a beast against COL and DET...up until we needed to close out DET where he had 0pts. 2pts against CHI where we were the worse team, 1pt in elimination.

2011 - 10pts in 18 games, but 1pt in critical games 4-7 against DET after going up 3-0. 2pts in elimination.

2012 - 0pts in the entire series. Everyone played bad and we weren't good, but still.

2013 - Big part of sweeping the Canucks with 8pts in 4 games, then goes goalless against the Kings with 4 assists (2 primary). And we all remember him not lifting the puck..... 1 pt in elimination

2014 - 6pts but 0 in the final 3 games when we needed him.

2016 - already stated

2017 - 4pts, 3 coming in the game we won 7-0. No other goals. 0 pts in the final two games, including elimination.

2018 - 5pts in 4 games vs ANA, but only 3 in 6 games against Vegas. Only had points in wins, including that his only goal was an inconsequential 4th goal on the PP in the 3rd on a game we won 4-0. 0 pts in the final two games, including elimination.

2019 - Only 4pts in the 1st round against Vegas (though 2 were garbage time in a game we had already won). Then he got injured so I can't in good faith hold the Blues series against him. Dead during elimination.

2020 - Very streaky, but did score some major goals. Only really disappeared vs vegas, but he showed up in the final. I think this is his best playoffs ever. 0pts in elimination

2021 - Dallas didnt qualify, forgot about that

2022 - 6pts in 7 games, lost to a better team. Another good playoffs for him. 1pt in elimination

2023 - 14pts in 14 games, 4 coming in a game they lost somehow. But only 4 points in the series against Vegas. He did have a sweet OT winner in Game 5 though. 0pts in elimination.

2024 - entirely disappeared 0pts in entire series vs edm.


So, in the 16x he made the playoffs, he was was eliminated every time (obv). But in those 15 elimination games (2019 doesn't count), he only had 5pts TOTAL (or, only had pts in 4 of those). Further, he seemed to really struggle in Teal when his team needed to close out series, with 10, 11, 14 standing out.

I think this is a sobering look at a player we always thought came through for us. In fact, it seems like he repeatedly did not come through when it actually mattered most. His value dropped significantly vs Detroit, LA, and Vegas - 3 teams we played a bunch in his tenure.

my conclusion from all of this is that Pavelski provided some major moments for this franchise and we let that overshadow him not showing up in the most critical games. And I think his excellent twilight play in the bubble finals tricked people into thinking he was this uber-clutch hero when in reality he was just very clutch.

Side note - I think you could also make a similar case about Bergeron being a giant choker, but that's a different summer day.

My admiration for the guy isn’t about the expectation that he didn’t lead us to the promise land. It’s that he was a 7th round pick that worked tirelessly to get to where he was. Adapting his game to his slow feet and smaller size. He became captain of some very good teams. He is the highest scorer in his draft.
That’s what it’s about for me.

 

[gaucholoco3]

That's damning if true, but it doesn't pass the smell test. I suspect that there is some equivocation going on here with "elimination games".

As someone who has discounted Thornton for this very reason I don’t think there is much credibility to looking the other way for Pavs.

 

[OrrNumber4]

As someone who has discounted Thornton for this very reason I don’t think there is much credibility to looking the other way for Pavs.

The difference is that I think we're looking at different numbers. The case against Thornton:

1) Bad overall playoff numbers
2) Bad playoff numbers in games 5-7 of a series
3) Bad playoff numbers in important/elimination games

It seems like @tiburon12 is using the definition of elimination game as "games where the player was eliminated", not the traditional definition of games where he could have been eliminated. Feels like he is stretching to find a criticism of Pavelski.

Since it's the offseason and we have nothing better to do, let's entertain this nonsensical notion about Pavelski.

1) What are his overall playoff numbers? He has about a 9% drop in scoring between the RS and playoffs, though if you take out his final season that's only 4%, which is about league average. He's also a -1 over his career. Unlike Thornton, he's less reliant on the PP, more dominant at ES, and of course, more of a goal-scorer

2) In games 5-7 of a series, Pavelski played in 63 games, with 21 goals and 41 points, and was a plus one. Thornton (despite being a much more prolific RS season) is below 0.5 PPG and outrageously negative. And, of course, if you take out Pavelski's awful last year (7 games, 3 points) he looks even better.

3) I'll let @tiburon12 tell you what the numbers were in actual elimination games.

Edit: Typo.

 

[Mr Fahrenheit]

Pavelski played in 63 games, with 21 goals and 20 points

Was one of those an own goal or something?

 

[tiburon12]

The difference is that I think we're looking at different numbers. The case against Thornton:

1) Bad overall playoff numbers
2) Bad playoff numbers in games 5-7 of a series
3) Bad playoff numbers in important/elimination games

It seems like @tiburon12 is using the definition of elimination game as "games where the player was eliminated", not the traditional definition of games where he could have been eliminated. Feels like he is stretching to find a criticism of Pavelski.

Since it's the offseason and we have nothing better to do, let's entertain this nonsensical notion about Pavelski.

1) What are his overall playoff numbers? He has about a 9% drop in scoring between the RS and playoffs, though if you take out his final season that's only 4%, which is about league average. He's also a -1 over his career. Unlike Thornton, he's less reliant on the PP, more dominant at ES, and of course, more of a goal-scorer

2) In games 5-7 of a series, Pavelski played in 63 games, with 21 goals and 41 points, and was a plus one. Thornton (despite being a much more prolific RS season) is below 0.5 PPG and outrageously negative. And, of course, if you take out Pavelski's awful last year (7 games, 3 points) he looks even better.

3) I'll let @tiburon12 tell you what the numbers were in actual elimination games.

Edit: Typo.

Yes, i was only using "games in which he was eliminated", and I don't think I hoodwinked by saying it any other way. Frankly, I didn't have the time to go through each series over a 16 playoff years; now i kinda do

I tried to highlight games where the Sharks were facing elimination / eliminated AND games where the Sharks could have eliminated another team. In both those scenarios Pavs didn't perform particularly well.

If we look at his tenure in teal (omitting 2019) we get:

(EG= Elimination Game, GE = Game to Eliminate)

2008 - 5EG 2pts, 1GE 1pt
Rd 1 - Sharks faced elimination in games 6&7 and he had 1 pt. In game 7 he had 1pt.
Rd 2 - Sharks faced elimination in games 4-6 and he had 1 pt (his HUGE OT goal).

2009 - 2EG 0pts
Rd 1 - Sharks faced elimination in games 5&6 and he had 0 pts.

2010 - 1EG 1pt, 3GE 4pts
Rd 1 - Sharks never faced elimination. They had 1 games to close out COL and he had 3pts.
Rd 2 - Sharks never faced elimination. They had 2 games to close out DET and he had 1pt
Rd 3 - Sharks faced elimination in game 4 and he had 1pt

2011 - 2EG 2pts, 6GE 1pt
Rd 1 - Sharks never faced elimination. They had 2 games to eliminate the Kings and he had 1pt.
Rd 2 - Sharks faced elimination in game 7 and he had 0 points. They had 4 games to eliminate Detroit and he had 1pt in those games.
Rd 3 - Sharks faced elimination in game 5 and he had 2 points (one nothing assist and one hero play assist)

2012 - 1EG 0pts
Rd 1 - Sharks faced elimination in game 5 and he had 0 pts (all series too)

2013 - 2EG 2Pts, 2GE 2pts
Rd 1 - Sharks never faced elimination. They needed 1 game to sweep VAN and he had 2pts.
Rd 2 - Sharks faced elimination in games 6&7 and he had 2pts (but missed that crucial shot). In game 7 he had 1pt

2014 - 1EG 0pts, 4GE 1pt
Rd 1 - Sharks faced elimination in game 7 and he had 0 pts. They had 4 games to eliminate LAK and he had 1pt in those games.

2016 - 3EG 2pts, 4GE 3pts
Rd 1 - Sharks never faced elimination. They needed 1 game to close out LAK and he had 1pt.
Rd 2 - Sharks faced elimination in game 7 and he had 1 pt. They had 2 chances to close out NSH and he had 1 pt.
Rd 3 - Sharks never faced elimination. They needed 1 game to close out STL and he had 1pt.
Rd 4 - Sharks faced elimination in games 5&6 and he had 1 point (an ENG).

2017 - 1EG 0pts
Rd 1 - Sharks faced elimination in game 6 and he had 0 points.

2018 - 1EG 0pts, 1GE 0pts
Rd 1 - Sharks never faced elimination. The swept ANA and he had 0 pts in game 4.
Rd 2 - Sharks faced elimination in game 6 and he had 0 points.

So in this chunk of his career with SJS he had:
19 games facing elimination - 9pts
21 games to eliminate a team - 12pts

These aren't great numbers and are not the numbers of a bonafide playoff hero.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Yes, i was only using "games in which he was eliminated", and I don't think I hoodwinked by saying it any other way. Frankly, I didn't have the time to go through each series over a 16 playoff years; now i kinda do

I tried to highlight games where the Sharks were facing elimination / eliminated AND games where the Sharks could have eliminated another team. In both those scenarios Pavs didn't perform particularly well.

If we look at his tenure in teal (omitting 2019) we get:

(EG= Elimination Game, GE = Game to Eliminate)

2008 - 5EG 2pts, 1GE 1pt
Rd 1 - Sharks faced elimination in games 6&7 and he had 1 pt. In game 7 he had 1pt.
Rd 2 - Sharks faced elimination in games 4-6 and he had 1 pt (his HUGE OT goal).

2009 - 2EG 0pts
Rd 1 - Sharks faced elimination in games 5&6 and he had 0 pts.

2010 - 1EG 1pt, 3GE 4pts
Rd 1 - Sharks never faced elimination. They had 1 games to close out COL and he had 3pts.
Rd 2 - Sharks never faced elimination. They had 2 games to close out DET and he had 1pt
Rd 3 - Sharks faced elimination in game 4 and he had 1pt

2011 - 2EG 2pts, 6GE 1pt
Rd 1 - Sharks never faced elimination. They had 2 games to eliminate the Kings and he had 1pt.
Rd 2 - Sharks faced elimination in game 7 and he had 0 points. They had 4 games to eliminate Detroit and he had 1pt in those games.
Rd 3 - Sharks faced elimination in game 5 and he had 2 points (one nothing assist and one hero play assist)

2012 - 1EG 0pts
Rd 1 - Sharks faced elimination in game 5 and he had 0 pts (all series too)

2013 - 2EG 2Pts, 2GE 2pts
Rd 1 - Sharks never faced elimination. They needed 1 game to sweep VAN and he had 2pts.
Rd 2 - Sharks faced elimination in games 6&7 and he had 2pts (but missed that crucial shot). In game 7 he had 1pt

2014 - 1EG 0pts, 4GE 1pt
Rd 1 - Sharks faced elimination in game 7 and he had 0 pts. They had 4 games to eliminate LAK and he had 1pt in those games.

2016 - 3EG 2pts, 4GE 3pts
Rd 1 - Sharks never faced elimination. They needed 1 game to close out LAK and he had 1pt.
Rd 2 - Sharks faced elimination in game 7 and he had 1 pt. They had 2 chances to close out NSH and he had 1 pt.
Rd 3 - Sharks never faced elimination. They needed 1 game to close out STL and he had 1pt.
Rd 4 - Sharks faced elimination in games 5&6 and he had 1 point (an ENG).

2017 - 1EG 0pts
Rd 1 - Sharks faced elimination in game 6 and he had 0 points.

2018 - 1EG 0pts, 1GE 0pts
Rd 1 - Sharks never faced elimination. The swept ANA and he had 0 pts in game 4.
Rd 2 - Sharks faced elimination in game 6 and he had 0 points.

So in this chunk of his career with SJS he had:
19 games facing elimination - 9pts
21 games to eliminate a team - 12pts

These aren't great numbers and are not the numbers of a bonafide playoff hero.

Hmm, so not great numbers; a big dip from his normal playoff numbers. I will add that if you take out his first 2 seasons it becomes 10 points in 12 elimination games, no?

 

[tiburon12]

Hmm, so not great numbers; a big dip from his normal playoff numbers. I will add that if you take out his first 2 seasons it becomes 10 points in 12 elimination games, no?

It would become 7 points in 12 elimination games. But remember one of those was the worthless ENG in the cup final....

To be fair to him, of those points i think all but 1 was a primary point.

 

[OrrNumber4]

It would become 7 points in 12 elimination games. But remember one of those was the worthless ENG in the cup final....

To be fair to him, of those points i think all but 1 was a primary point.

Then you add his time in dallas and it becomes 13 points in 20 games, which looks a little better...

 

[tiburon12]

Then you add his time in dallas and it becomes 13 points in 20 games, which looks a little better...

A little, yes. Like I said in the first post, I think him playing well in the bubble exacerbated the false perception that he was a legendary playoff performer.

Before I look, I assume his numbers in these games have nothing on Couture's.

 

[gaucholoco3]

Then you add his time in dallas and it becomes 13 points in 20 games, which looks a little better...

So when you throw out the first two seasons and then include his time with another organization his numbers look good.

This is an example of trying to manipulate statistics to fit a narrative, instead of formulating an objective opinion based on what the statistics say.

Look I think Pavs was great and he wasn’t “the guy” like Jumbo was, so he wasn’t as much of a reason the Sharks didn’t win as Jumbo was. Frankly it was a combination of never getting good goaltending and strong skating performances in the same year and bad luck. I am confident saying that if goaltender interference rules are what they are today that goal in game 6 is disallowed and Stalock would be a cup winning goalie.

 

[Barrie22]

So when you throw out the first two seasons and then include his time with another organization his numbers look good.

This is an example of trying to manipulate statistics to fit a narrative, instead of formulating an objective opinion based on what the statistics say.

Look I think Pavs was great and he wasn’t “the guy” like Jumbo was, so he wasn’t as much of a reason the Sharks didn’t win as Jumbo was. Frankly it was a combination of never getting good goaltending and strong skating performances in the same year and bad luck. I am confident saying that if goaltender interference rules are what they are today that goal in game 6 is disallowed and Stalock would be a cup winning goalie.

Especially when he will gladly add in thorntons 2nd year in boston where he wasn't used as a top 6 forward yet.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

I’m here for some criticisms of Pavelski’s playoff performances, but looking at a player’s track record in games where they were eliminated is very poor analysis. There’s a major selection bias at play here; you’re looking at strictly games their team lost, in series in which their teams were likely outmatched to some degree. (Not to mention it’s just a tiny sample size, and all the playoff games matter.)

Pretty much every player is going to have very bad stats in games they were eliminated. Looking at stats in games where a player’s team was facing elimination (which is what people traditionally refer to when they discuss track record in “elimination games”) suffers from the same issue that their teams are likely outmatched to some degree, but it at least gives the player a fighting chance to put up good stats in the game they win for their team.

As an example, Nikita Kucherov has 1 point in 6 career “elimination games” according to this definition. As another example that will hit even closer to home, Logan Couture has 3 points in 9 career “elimination games.” It’s a very bad definition.

 

[Cas]

I’m here for some criticisms of Pavelski’s playoff performances, but looking at a player’s track record in games where they were eliminated is very poor analysis. There’s a major selection bias at play here; you’re looking at strictly games their team lost, in series in which their teams were likely outmatched to some degree. (Not to mention it’s just a tiny sample size, and all the playoff games matter.)

All of the above criticisms deserve heavy emphasis.

 

[OrrNumber4]

So when you throw out the first two seasons and then include his time with another organization his numbers look good.

1) I will agree that taking out the first two seasons is a bit tendentious on my part, but taking out the first season for a player is established practice. After all, Pavelski was on the fourth line in 2007, with less than 50 NHL games under his belt. In hindsight, taking out 2007-2008 was wrong, but that's because even though he started on the fourth line at the season's beginning, by the playoffs he had worked his way to the top line.

2) Yes, looking at his time with an organization makes perfect sense if you are trying to judge his career impact. Looking back, perhaps @tiburon12 and I were talking past each other, as he was looking at just the Shark's performance and I was looking at career.

This is an example of trying to manipulate statistics to fit a narrative, instead of formulating an objective opinion based on what the statistics say.

If you want to play this game, let's see you do the same analysis for Marleau.

Stalock would be a cup winning goalie.

Stalock could win a cup only if he did so at the arcade.

Especially when he will gladly add in thorntons 2nd year in boston where he wasn't used as a top 6 forward yet.

Even in your criticism, you are incorrect. Thornton was the team's 2nd-line center by the 1999 playoffs. Moreover, I've repeatedly shown that no matter how you cut the data (use Thornton's entire career, just his time in San Jose, just his peak seasons, just his prime season), the conclusion is undeniable that he was a historically bad playoff performer.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Anyway, back to positive Pavelski things, he’s the inspiration for why I tape my stick white almost half-way up the shaft. I thought it looked super cool on TV like he had the puck on a literal string or was controlling it by magic.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Anyway, back to positive Pavelski things, he’s the inspiration for why I tape my stick white almost half-way up the shaft. I thought it looked super cool on TV like he had the puck on a literal string or was controlling it by magic.

The arsonist returns to put out the fire...

 

[wingerdinger]

Sad to see him retire without winning a cup as a player.

Definition of a heart and soul guy sacrificed his body my faviourite non wing player for all those years.