Value of: Joe Pavelski, Brock Nelson, Tomas Hertl

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Yeah a forward is needed after losing Kane. Need one back if we lose Hertl as well
It be Barron + OO. You can keep your 23 1st

Makes sense. I think the value is fair.

 

[BobClarkesfrontteeth]

as a Leafs fan, Hertl would be a killer addition. Run him with Matthews and Marner

I'm sorry the answer is "what is a Michael Bunting". Would you like to choose another question?

 

[Prior]

I don’t think Minnesota would scoff at paying a ‘22 first plus O’Rourke or Marat (probably more likely to part with O’Rourke given Lambos, Hunt, Peart, and Masters all coming up from the left side). Adding both is probably at the point where they walk away.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Based on? Giroux brings veteran leadership and has a pretty good playoff pedigree. Even if it is more than Giroux, it should not be anything substantial unless he comes with an extension

I think this would be a part of it. Even if he doesn't necessarily come with an extension I would have to imagine whatever team is adding him will almost certainly be adding him with the mindset of getting him extended and thus would pay a little more IMO.


Whereas Giroux I think likely gets looked at more as a pure rental just given his age. Maybe you look at re-signing him afterwards and depending on his contract demands.


But IMO at 28 years old Hertl is the more attractive target because of the idea of a nice 6-7 year extension.


Though I agree it's not a big difference either way. Just like with Pavelski I think all three guys will fetch a 1st + Prospect return if all 3 end up traded.

 

[miscs75]

Which team are you asking about Brock for? I’m quite curious about this.

 

[fasterthanlight]

Even still. Mark Stone was traded with an extension in place a couple years ago and his return was pretty similar.

I would say Brannstrom at the time was an A-tier prospect rather than a B tier. But they also didn't get a 1st rounder, they got a 2nd instead.


Ultimately I think the Taylor Hall trade is a good example here. Not the Buffalo/Boston deal but the New Jersey/Anaheim trade.


That deal was essentially a 1st + B prospect(Bahl) + Conditional pick(3rd that could have ended up as high as another 1st IIRC) for Hall. With a couple throw in pieces from each side that carried pretty little value.


So IMO you're looking at deals like:


1st + Robertson from Toronto. 1st + Barron from Colorado. 1st + O'Rourke from Minnesota. 1st + Drury from Carolina


Those sort of packages. Perhaps with later picks or lesser prospects on either side to balance things out.

Stone isn't a bad comparable for Hertl, I agree. I'd like to think Hertl probably has more value than Stone did at the time because he puts up more points and plays a more valuable position. But, it's debatable. I'd say Brannstrom was valued at roughly a mid first at the time, so 1st, 2nd, filler. I'd like to think hertl (signed) would be 1st, 1st, filler value, but of course, I'm biased.

 

[themelkman]

Hertl is not going to get a better return than Pavelski or Giroux. Thinking you are getting a top prospect on top of a 1st for a rental is asinine.

Dvorak got a 1st and a second, Nick Folingo got a 1st as a rental. Not noticing market changes is a much more asinine take.

 

[Gecklund]

Stone isn't a bad comparable for Hertl, I agree. I'd like to think Hertl probably has more value than Stone did at the time because he puts up more points and plays a more valuable position. But, it's debatable. I'd say Brannstrom was valued at roughly a mid first at the time, so 1st, 2nd, filler. I'd like to think hertl (signed) would be 1st, 1st, filler value, but of course, I'm biased.

Brannstrom was a top 5 prospect in the world….

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Brannstrom was a top 5 prospect in the world….

No he definitely was not

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Dvorak got a 1st and a second, Nick Folingo got a 1st as a rental. Not noticing market changes is a much more asinine take.

Dvorak wasn't a rental, thats not even remotely similar. Foligno got a 1st and a 4th as a long time captain and team leader (double retained). Hertl will get a 1st for sure, and probably a solid prospect but definitely not a top prospect

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Dvorak got a 1st and a second, Nick Folingo got a 1st as a rental. Not noticing market changes is a much more asinine take.

Comparing Dvorak to Hertl is certainly the most asinine take

 

[Sparksrus3]

Stoner Brock isn't going anywhere. 25-25 with decent faceoff skills. Plus, he's got a bunch of term at decent price for a 2nd line center. I'd be really surprised if he was moved, like shit my pants surprised.

Stoner Brock = Sheriff Woody

 

[themelkman]

Comparing Dvorak to Hertl is certainly the most asinine take

Yeah because one is a fantastic 1c and one is a third liner.

 

[Volica]

He should get more then Giroux.

Question being the M-NTC.
We’ve seen these in the past sort of tank values because the player refuses to go to the ‘unsexy’ locations.

Like, Minny, Calgary, St Louis and Toronto back up the Brinks, but Hertl is just like, nope, nope, nope, nope; meanwhile NYR is like… ‘Here’s a first and our 7th org prospect, enjoy,’ and Hertl’s like, ‘seems good on my end.’

Prices in the NHL tend to get driven by demand, and there’s no question that the demand should be high, but he sort of holds the cards in terms of locations he’d accept.

 

[PacificOceanPotion]

Can't wait until Hertl re signs and we can stop having this conversation. For God's sakes, half of NHL fans from the east coast and Canada rarely get to see Hertl so its hard to appreciate his game and his impact when he's in the lineup. Hes not some "Okay" player. Hes captain material..A puck possession monster and his skill is elite..If he gets anything less than a 1st rd pick and an A list prospect i will be very disappointed. With that being said... Im prepared to be very disappointed..

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Question being the M-NTC.
We’ve seen these in the past sort of tank values because the player refuses to go to the ‘unsexy’ locations.

Like, Minny, Calgary, St Louis and Toronto back up the Brinks, but Hertl is just like, nope, nope, nope, nope; meanwhile NYR is like… ‘Here’s a first and our 7th org prospect, enjoy,’ and Hertl’s like, ‘seems good on my end.’

Prices in the NHL tend to get driven by demand, and there’s no question that the demand should be high, but he sort of holds the cards in terms of locations he’d accept.

Yeah absolutely.

If Hertl decides he doesn't want to sign in San Jose, I feel like they have to trade him. They're not in a position to just consider him a rental for them and go for it, they wont win. So they have to trade him and get some assets back.

However, if Hertl also decides to really use that NTC he has he can really tie the Sharks hands in terms of what they can get for him at the deadline. That said I think the bare minimum return even in a worst case scenario should be like a 2nd + Meh prospect. If Hertl is basically only willing to go to one single team and that team is refusing to offer even a 2nd round pick for him... At that point its not worth it to trade him and you just ride it out with him, maybe get a bit of playoff revenue or go on a magical run and that's it.


I dont think Hertl will be that strict on his NTC though. My guess is he'll give San Jose at least 3-4 teams he'd accept a trade to and San Jose will get a package centered around a 1st round pick that they're reasonably happy with.

 

[Alwalys]

Florida needs to add Hertl and Pavelski and run them with Thornton.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

I think the ask for Hertl should be 1st + good prospect such as an O'Rourke/Barron/Olausson/whatever (if you dont like those names idc theyre examples).

Dvorak is not a comparable. He was a few years younger and signed for 4 more years when he was traded, at a cap hit under 5M. Hertl is months away from free agency where he should get paid a long term deal north of 7M.

 

[mm11]

according to some the NYI window has closed which means they should sell off guys like Nelson. He has proven to be a clutch playoff performer in a defense first system
Would think the Isles could get a pretty good haul if wanted. I'll let others determine the market thank you

 

[Gecklund]

I think the ask for Hertl should be 1st + good prospect such as an O'Rourke/Barron/Olausson/whatever (if you dont like those names idc theyre examples).

Dvorak is not a comparable. He was a few years younger and signed for 4 more years when he was traded, at a cap hit under 5M. Hertl is months away from free agency where he should get paid a long term deal north of 7M.

I could definitely get behind those names. I think MIN/COL are the ones that make the most sense in terms of assets and need.

 

[Double Dion]

There's a lot of really good rentals available this year. Hopefully it drives the prices down a bit and we can add a top 6 forward.