Value of: Joe Pavelski, Brock Nelson, Tomas Hertl

[DangleBojangle]

Three forwards that are on non-playoff teams. Any of these 3 would be great additions for a contender.

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[Pure Slaughter Value]

Stoner Brock isn't going anywhere. 25-25 with decent faceoff skills. Plus, he's got a bunch of term at decent price for a 2nd line center. I'd be really surprised if he was moved, like shit my pants surprised.

 

[Mrfenn92]

Nelson stays.
Hertl and Pavelski will see how each team does until the deadline

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Nelson won't be traded. Doubt Pavelski is traded either unless Dallas lose like 10 straight at some point.


Hertl is probably a wait and see. I think San Jose tries to re-sign him but if they can't get it done I guess they trade him.


In terms if return it'll be the usual. 1st + B Prospect. Maybe a conditional pick based on playoff performance sort of thing.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

You misspelled Giroux

 

[Gecklund]

Nelson won't be traded. Doubt Pavelski is traded either unless Dallas lose like 10 straight at some point.


Hertl is probably a wait and see. I think San Jose tries to re-sign him but if they can't get it done I guess they trade him.


In terms if return it'll be the usual. 1st + B Prospect. Maybe a conditional pick based on playoff performance sort of thing.

Hertl will cost more than a 1st+b prospect. Unless we have very different definitions of B prospect.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Hertl will cost more than a 1st+b prospect. Unless we have very different definitions of B prospect.

He won't. Just like every year people think UFA rentals will fetch this top tier prospect and a 1st and multiple other assets.

 

[Gecklund]

He won't. Just like every year people think UFA rentals will fetch this top tier prospect and a 1st and multiple other assets.

Great and what’s the point of moving him for a 1st and someone like Nick Meloche who was once considered a B prospect? We will keep him then. The sort of deal I’m looking at is Marat+O’Rourke from MIN.

 

[Deadly Dogma]

as a Leafs fan, Hertl would be a killer addition. Run him with Matthews and Marner

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Nelson won't be traded. Doubt Pavelski is traded either unless Dallas lose like 10 straight at some point.


Hertl is probably a wait and see. I think San Jose tries to re-sign him but if they can't get it done I guess they trade him.


In terms if return it'll be the usual. 1st + B Prospect. Maybe a conditional pick based on playoff performance sort of thing.

If Dallas is out of it why keep Pavelski?

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Great and what’s the point of moving him for a 1st and someone like Nick Meloche who was once considered a B prospect? We will keep him then. The sort of deal I’m looking at is Marat+O’Rourke from MIN.

So... two B level prospects?

 

[fasterthanlight]

I think the cost of Hertl depends on how likely the trading team is to re-sign. if conversations have already taken place and it's basically a done deal (or, a sign-and-trade) 1st + B prospect is too low. In contrast, if Hertl hasn't talked extension, 1st + B sounds reasonable.

If sharks management is smart, they will already be talking to Hertl about this trying to maximize value (but I wouldn't hold my breath).

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

If Dallas is out of it why keep Pavelski?

I dont think they'll be out of it. Hence my "unless they lose 10 games in a row" comment. They're in a dog fight for the last playoff spot essentially, with a few teams.

But they're playing good hockey and winning games right now so most likely they'll still be in the thick of things come the deadline.

 

[Gecklund]

So... two B level prospects?

That’s why I put unless they are different definitions. In my mind a B level prospect (from SJ) is someone like Blichfield or Leonard

 

[themelkman]

Hertls ask is a top prospect and a first. Obviously this could change if he refuses to accept trades to a number of places, but assuming he will take any playoff team thats the ask.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I think the cost of Hertl depends on how likely the trading team is to re-sign. if conversations have already taken place and it's basically a done deal (or, a sign-and-trade) 1st + B prospect is too low. In contrast, if Hertl hasn't talked extension, 1st + B sounds reasonable.

If sharks management is smart, they will already be talking to Hertl about this trying to maximize value (but I wouldn't hold my breath).

Even still. Mark Stone was traded with an extension in place a couple years ago and his return was pretty similar.

I would say Brannstrom at the time was an A-tier prospect rather than a B tier. But they also didn't get a 1st rounder, they got a 2nd instead.


Ultimately I think the Taylor Hall trade is a good example here. Not the Buffalo/Boston deal but the New Jersey/Anaheim trade.


That deal was essentially a 1st + B prospect(Bahl) + Conditional pick(3rd that could have ended up as high as another 1st IIRC) for Hall. With a couple throw in pieces from each side that carried pretty little value.


So IMO you're looking at deals like:


1st + Robertson from Toronto. 1st + Barron from Colorado. 1st + O'Rourke from Minnesota. 1st + Drury from Carolina


Those sort of packages. Perhaps with later picks or lesser prospects on either side to balance things out.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

That’s why I put unless they are different definitions. In my mind a B level prospect (from SJ) is someone like Blichfield or Leonard

So you consider O'Rourke to be an A level prospect?

 

[Groo]

Even still. Mark Stone was traded with an extension in place a couple years ago and his return was pretty similar.

I would say Brannstrom at the time was an A-tier prospect rather than a B tier. But they also didn't get a 1st rounder, they got a 2nd instead.


Ultimately I think the Taylor Hall trade is a good example here. Not the Buffalo/Boston deal but the New Jersey/Anaheim trade.


That deal was essentially a 1st + B prospect(Bahl) + Conditional pick(3rd that could have ended up as high as another 1st IIRC) for Hall. With a couple throw in pieces from each side that carried pretty little value.


So IMO you're looking at deals like:


1st + Robertson from Toronto. 1st + Barron from Colorado. 1st + O'Rourke from Minnesota. 1st + Drury from Carolina


Those sort of packages. Perhaps with later picks or lesser prospects on either side to balance things out.

Wouldn't have much interest in a late 23 pick + Barron for Hertl.
Replace it with Olausson and we can talk

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Hertls ask is a top prospect and a first. Obviously this could change if he refuses to accept trades to a number of places, but assuming he will take any playoff team thats the ask.

Hertl is not going to get a better return than Pavelski or Giroux. Thinking you are getting a top prospect on top of a 1st for a rental is asinine.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Wouldn't have much interest in a late 23 pick + Barron for Hertl.
Replace it with Olausson and we can talk

I'm assuming you just need a forward prospect more then a Dman?

Personally I think Barron is the much better prospect then OO so I wouldn't have any issues with this.


But I'd also rather trade for Giroux over Hertl personally at this point. Giroux will be a little cheaper IMO and I think his desire to win a cup is more prominent then making money at this point in his career which I think could lend itself to re-signing him for cheap.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Hertl is not going to get a better return than Pavelski or Giroux. Thinking you are getting a top prospect on top of a 1st for a rental is asinine.

He should get more then Giroux.

 

[Gecklund]

So you consider O'Rourke to be an A level prospect?

Between a B+ and A- yes.

 

[Groo]

I'm assuming you just need a forward prospect more then a Dman?

Personally I think Barron is the much better prospect then OO so I wouldn't have any issues with this.


But I'd also rather trade for Giroux over Hertl personally at this point.

Yeah a forward is needed after losing Kane. Need one back if we lose Hertl as well
It be Barron + OO. You can keep your 23 1st

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Between a B+ and A- yes.

Fair enough. We probably just have different definitions.


I have a pretty small list of true A-Tier sorts. Maybe ~30 names across the league give or take.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

He should get more then Giroux.

Based on? Giroux brings veteran leadership and has a pretty good playoff pedigree. Even if it is more than Giroux, it should not be anything substantial unless he comes with an extension