JFTC:Brutal Recap of Last Season

[YP44]

Prior to Blake being hired the top prospects were LaDue, Kempe, Gravel, Amadio, Mersch, Brodz, Clague, Watson, Wagner and MacDermid.
In 3 drafts since then Blake has a pool that includes Vilardi, Kupari, Turcotte, JAD, Thomas, Anderson, Kalieyev, Phillips, Bjorfoot and Sodergran. He has also filled in the gap between the core and these prospects with college free agents very well, guys like Iafallo and Petersen have already made impacts and Brickley and Rempal still have potential. The Kings currently have a borderline top 5 prospect pool filled with potential.

Whether Blake and co. have a plan or not, the Kings are doing a fantastic job stocking the pipeline.

agree the change in drafting has been huge, but I think it would have been that way if DL was still in charge. In one of his last interviews he talked about the need to keep picks and restock the prospect pool. So I think it was more of a organizational enlightenment that a Blake or DL strategy.

 

[KINGS17]

I'm not disputing that. I think I was advocating for trading Carter before anyone, back when DL was still GM, but people are complaining that Blake didn't move him last season. It's too late for that now.

Ok, I understand where you are coming from now.

 

[YP44]

I really feel like there’s a lot of revisionist history going on here. It sounds like some of you are arguing that we should have traded guys at the 2014 deadline. But we still had a strong team then.

Here’s how I see it. We had our crazy three year run from 2012-2014. 2015 was a loss because of the Voynov situation, and 2016 was our best regular season since 1974-75 at 102 points. 2017, Quick missed most of the season and things came to a head and Lombardi and Sutter are fired.

Okay, 2018, Stevens is behind the bench and the Kings get off to their best start ever. They’re in first or second most of the year, but injuries impact the team. Carter’s been out all year, lots of forwards missed time, and even then, we finished in the first wildcard spot, two points behind the Sharks and three points behind the Ducks (who rode a five-game winning streak and went 8-1-1 in their last ten games to push us down into the wildcard spot). We get swept, which wasn’t ideal, but we only let in seven goals in the whole series. Bad news is, we only scored four. Okay, our defense and goaltending are clearly still one of the top in the league and Kopitar and Brown just had some of their best years ever. Do we just fold while Kopitar and Brown are crushing it? Of course not. We bring in Kovalchuk, we hope Carter gets better, and we bring in a couple depth pieces.

Did it work? No. But some of you guys act like a complete tear down of the roster was the ONLY POSSIBLE CHOICE since 2013. Get real. We had a really good team for a lot of years. If we’d won another cup in the past five years, we’d be saying “trading those firsts were totally worth it”. They gambled, they lost, but it was worth the shot.

Now that Blake has added draft picks, drafted well, and has publicly stated that the team will be getting younger, you have no faith? Why? They admitted they were wrong this past offseason. They traded Muzzin, Thompson, and Fantenberg for futures. They bought out Phaneuf.

Carter, Kovalchuk, and Quick are still on the team because their value is low and no teams want them. If TMac can get these guys back on track this season, they’ll be worth something at the deadline. If not, no one wants them anyways and we’re stuck with them until the contracts are short enough to buy out.

They already stated the plan is to be competitive once Seattle joins the league. The next two years won’t be great, but if we can squeeze out assets for our older players and keep drafting and developing well, then we’re going to be in a really good spot in a couple years.

This needs to be posted in every kings thread

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

You can't equate a baseball player's longevity with that of a hockey player. The point is after the Dodgers let Garvey go, he had two more very productive seasons with the Padres, and yet it was the right thing to do for the Dodger organization. Garvey was very much late in his prime as it is measured by yourself and others here.

Cey had two more productive seasons with the Cubs. Sutton went on to pitch into his 40s and won over 100 games (about one-third of his career total) after he left the Dodgers, yet it was the right thing to do for the Dodger organization to see him go when he did.

You all would be screaming if Carter had been traded and had one more good season. Instead the Kings hung onto Carter for too long and now what do they have?

Regarding the organization being right about Carter based on their premise, when an organization operates under a set of false assumptions, it gets burned.

That remains yet to be seen.

A bounceback season of any sort makes him an asset, as he's cheap in money and term at this point. As much value as before? unlikely, sure. But I get the feeling Carter, Toffoli, etc. will surprise people with their returns since it's unlikely everyone has a dumpster season like last one ever again even though that's getting painted as the new norm.

I love how people here toss out average performances as the outlier season after season but a bad season is almost always considered the new norm.

 

[Herby]

It's better to trade a player a year early than trade a player a year late.

And as far as the article, it's terrible, just completely all over the place. I especially love how he laments getting rid of Lombardi and Sutter "Because they brought us something no one thought we would see." That same type of sentimental thinking set the Angels back a decade, and the same thing probably would have happened to the Kings. With Sutter the team was sucking on the ice and basically in revolt in the lockerroom, and with Dean he had one of the worst 3 year runs I can remember an NHL GM having.

That remains yet to be seen.

A bounceback season of any sort makes him an asset, as he's cheap in money and term at this point. As much value as before? unlikely, sure. But I get the feeling Carter, Toffoli, etc. will surprise people with their returns since it's unlikely everyone has a dumpster season like last one ever again even though that's getting painted as the new norm.

I love how people here toss out average performances as the outlier season after season but a bad season is almost always considered the new norm.

It's more likely that Carter's down season was regression due to age than an outlier season, if he were 28 your argument would have more merit, but it's just more likely that Carter is in a steep decline than it is he is going to bounce back. I know there are some examples of guys who have done that, but if you look at the big picture, a horrendous season at 33 usually means the end.

Toffoli, who knows, he is still in the prime of his career but he has been replacement level for about 125 games now, going back to the 2017-2018 season. Maybe he puts in the work because it's a contract year, but I want nothing to do with this guy, if he has a big year unload at the deadline. If Blake re-signs TT it would be a huge mistake.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

This needs to be posted in every kings thread

I tend to side with the general sentiment that you can’t blame Lombardi for continuing to “go for it” in 2015 and even 2016.

But after 2016, it was very clear the team was on a swift downward trajectory. Firm rebuild/retool plans should have been put into action during that summer. Instead, Lombardi just sort of stood pat for a year, which resulted in the awful 16/17 campaign and ultimately his termination.

It’s been discussed to death, but I do agree with the narrative that Lombardi was only fired because he refused to fire Sutter after 16/17. Say what you will about Lombardi by 16/17, but it’s indisputable that Sutter needed to go. The players had completely tuned him out, and some of them (including our former captain) were outright feuding with him.

It’s telling that all the players gathered at Dean’s house for beers after he was fired, and no one seemed to care about Sutter leaving. He has always been a shelf life coach, and he was way past expiration by 2017.

 

[kilowatt]

It's better to trade a player a year early than trade a player a year late.

And as far as the article, it's terrible, just completely all over the place. I especially love how he laments getting rid of Lombardi and Sutter "Because they brought us something no one thought we would see." That same type of sentimental thinking set the Angels back a decade, and the same thing probably would have happened to the Kings. With Sutter the team was sucking on the ice and basically in revolt in the lockerroom, and with Dean he had one of the worst 3 year runs I can remember an NHL GM having.

The Kings missed the playoffs with 95 points in 2014-15, the same amount of points they got into the playoffs with in 2011-12, and that was after the Voynov debacle.

The Kings finished with 102 points the following year, 2015-16, but lost in the first round of the playoffs.

Then 2016-17 rolls around, rumors bubble up about the issues between Sutter and the team, Quick is out most of the season, they finish with 86 points, and Sutter and Lombardi get fired.

One playoff win in three years wasn’t good, and the writing was on the wall in 16-17, but we were a year removed from one of our best regular seasons of all time.

Our year with Lucic was the best regular season finish since the 70’s. Given his decline, I’m obviously glad he didn’t re-sign with the Kings, but it was actually a pretty big loss to the team.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

It's more likely that Carter's down season was regression due to age than an outlier season, if he were 28 your argument would have more merit, but it's just more likely that Carter is in a steep decline than it is he is going to bounce back. I know there are some examples of guys who have done that, but if you look at the big picture, a horrendous season at 33 usually means the end.

Toffoli, who knows, he is still in the prime of his career but he has been replacement level for about 125 games now, going back to the 2017-2018 season. Maybe he puts in the work because it's a contract year, but I want nothing to do with this guy, if he has a big year unload at the deadline. If Blake re-signs TT it would be a huge mistake.

It's possible, but again, literally everyone except Iafallo and Clifford suffered massively last year. They aren't all in decline, yet that's the narrative around here.

People forget he came back the previous year and scored at a 40 goal pace. Same with Kopitar's 92, Doughty's 60. What do you think's more likely, that they are all in extremely sudden, massive decline that's going to continue? Or that it was a miserable year and they're all likely to rebound a bit?

Age is sure more of a factor in Carter's case. But I have a hard time believing he doesn't rebound to at least 40-50 points.

 

[YP44]

I tend to side with the general sentiment that you can’t blame Lombardi for continuing to “go for it” in 2015 and even 2016.

But after 2016, it was very clear the team was on a swift downward trajectory. Firm rebuild/retool plans should have been put into action during that summer. Instead, Lombardi just sort of stood pat for a year, which resulted in the awful 16/17 campaign and ultimately his termination.

It’s been discussed to death, but I do agree with the narrative that Lombardi was only fired because he refused to fire Sutter after 16/17. Say what you will about Lombardi by 16/17, but it’s indisputable that Sutter needed to go. The players had completely tuned him out, and some of them (including our former captain) were outright feuding with him.

It’s telling that all the players gathered at Dean’s house for beers after he was fired, and no one seemed to care about Sutter leaving. He has always been a shelf life coach, and he was way past expiration by 2017.

I agree but I do not think DL simply stood pat in 16/17, I think that is when he started the shift towards drafting and re-stocking the prospect pool.

I like Sutter but fully agree he has a shelf life and was well past it (something should have been done when the team locked him out)

 

[kilowatt]

I tend to side with the general sentiment that you can’t blame Lombardi for continuing to “go for it” in 2015 and even 2016.

But after 2016, it was very clear the team was on a swift downward trajectory. Firm rebuild/retool plans should have been put into action during that summer. Instead, Lombardi just sort of stood pat for a year, which resulted in the awful 16/17 campaign and ultimately his termination.

It’s been discussed to death, but I do agree with the narrative that Lombardi was only fired because he refused to fire Sutter after 16/17. Say what you will about Lombardi by 16/17, but it’s indisputable that Sutter needed to go. The players had completely tuned him out, and some of them (including our former captain) were outright feuding with him.

It’s telling that all the players gathered at Dean’s house for beers after he was fired, and no one seemed to care about Sutter leaving. He has always been a shelf life coach, and he was way past expiration by 2017.

I’ll agree with you there. If I had to choose the single biggest mistake of the last decade, it is stripping Brown of his captaincy instead of firing Sutter.

 

[BigKing]

I really feel like there’s a lot of revisionist history going on here. It sounds like some of you are arguing that we should have traded guys at the 2014 deadline. But we still had a strong team then.

Here’s how I see it. We had our crazy three year run from 2012-2014. 2015 was a loss because of the Voynov situation, and 2016 was our best regular season since 1974-75 at 102 points. 2017, Quick missed most of the season and things came to a head and Lombardi and Sutter are fired.

Okay, 2018, Stevens is behind the bench and the Kings get off to their best start ever. They’re in first or second most of the year, but injuries impact the team. Carter’s been out all year, lots of forwards missed time, and even then, we finished in the first wildcard spot, two points behind the Sharks and three points behind the Ducks (who rode a five-game winning streak and went 8-1-1 in their last ten games to push us down into the wildcard spot). We get swept, which wasn’t ideal, but we only let in seven goals in the whole series. Bad news is, we only scored four. Okay, our defense and goaltending are clearly still one of the top in the league and Kopitar and Brown just had some of their best years ever. Do we just fold while Kopitar and Brown are crushing it? Of course not. We bring in Kovalchuk, we hope Carter gets better, and we bring in a couple depth pieces.

Did it work? No. But some of you guys act like a complete tear down of the roster was the ONLY POSSIBLE CHOICE since 2013. Get real. We had a really good team for a lot of years. If we’d won another cup in the past five years, we’d be saying “trading those firsts were totally worth it”. They gambled, they lost, but it was worth the shot.

Now that Blake has added draft picks, drafted well, and has publicly stated that the team will be getting younger, you have no faith? Why? They admitted they were wrong this past offseason. They traded Muzzin, Thompson, and Fantenberg for futures. They bought out Phaneuf.

Carter, Kovalchuk, and Quick are still on the team because their value is low and no teams want them. If TMac can get these guys back on track this season, they’ll be worth something at the deadline. If not, no one wants them anyways and we’re stuck with them until the contracts are short enough to buy out.

They already stated the plan is to be competitive once Seattle joins the league. The next two years won’t be great, but if we can squeeze out assets for our older players and keep drafting and developing well, then we’re going to be in a really good spot in a couple years.

No. The point is that a group of players did not perform well enough since 2014, leading to the dismissal of the team's 2x Cup winning coach and GM. New GM came in and, in the face of the last three season's results, ran it back. He then bet on an outlier season from Kopitar, an insane record from back-up goalies and the belief that Carter's late season goal-scoring fluke was at least half legit and almost traded valuable futures for a long-term deal with Patches before being the desperate team that gave Kovy a full three year deal.

It was proven to be a massive miscalculation of the roster. Of course he couldn't trade any of these guys once they were mired in trash seasons: the point is his plan was to just keep running it back when there were no tangible results for three seasons already. There have been arguments about whether you could get anything for Carter going into 2018, but he was coming off of a great season. Now you can't give him away. This is where criticism comes in: there is no visionary aspect to Blake's GM'ing but just reactions. It is very traditional paint-by-numbers GM'ing which makes the hire questionable in the first place.

As for the bolded, the Kovalchuk name is pretty damning since you are saying he has no value, yet Blake signed him to a $6MM contract for three seasons just one summer ago. Ouch. Major misfire.

As I've said repeatedly and Bland stated very well earlier in this thread, there is no parade thrown for keeping the picks. DL said he was going to keep them prior to being canned. It was obvious when looking at the prospect pool and coming off of the horrible 2017 season. Now, it appears they have been drafting well and I'm very hopeful but we still don't actually know if they did draft well. Of course, picking #5OA really helps but it was on accident as Blake was shooting for that 1st round playoff exit draft position again. It was only once everything collapsed that they went in on this rebuild move.

Going for it in 2015 and 16 made sense. 2017 was going to be rough since they couldn't replace Lucic and DL didn't have any more chips or, more importantly, wasn't going to be tossing 1st round picks around. Blake takes over and does virtually nothing and his signature move in Kovalchuk was a giant misfire.

The crisis in faith comes from doing nothing right at the NHL level with the biggest feather in his cap being keeping draft picks and--based on projections--drafting well. I love the Muzzin trade but, again, it isn't hard to line up the 1st/prospects package for a Top 4 defenseman on a good contract and one additional year left on it. Kudos for doing it but it isn't like "This guy is a genius and will lead us to the promise land." I do like everything from the Muzzin trade forward but I am concerned that they won't see this all the way through and do something stupid too soon in the process. In the meantime, he's pretty much getting a mulligan for this upcoming season outside of the T-Mac evaluation but, let's face it, they are going to be better simply by not having Willie D and the fact that they seem to compete harder after down seasons: Kopitar especially. This will now be three full NHL seasons as a GM where he seems to still get a pass from a lot of people on here. When the hell can he start to be judged? If he was the president of the USA, he'd have to start campaigning for re-election after this upcoming season: it would be hard to win with his record so far.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

I’ll agree with you there. If I had to choose the single biggest mistake of the last decade, it is stripping Brown of his captaincy instead of firing Sutter.

I said exactly that at the time! And I've never been a huge fan of Brown.

If you have to choose between your captain who is locked into a retirement deal and your coach, you choose your f***ing captain. Dean was AFK during those years.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

I agree but I do not think DL simply stood pat in 16/17, I think that is when he started the shift towards drafting and re-stocking the prospect pool.

I like Sutter but fully agree he has a shelf life and was well past it (something should have been done when the team locked him out)

The Kings missed the playoffs with 95 points in 2014-15, the same amount of points they got into the playoffs with in 2011-12, and that was after the Voynov debacle.

The Kings finished with 102 points the following year, 2015-16, but lost in the first round of the playoffs.

Then 2016-17 rolls around, rumors bubble up about the issues between Sutter and the team, Quick is out most of the season, they finish with 86 points, and Sutter and Lombardi get fired.

One playoff win in three years wasn’t good, and the writing was on the wall in 16-17, but we were a year removed from one of our best regular seasons of all time.

Our year with Lucic was the best regular season finish since the 70’s. Given his decline, I’m obviously glad he didn’t re-sign with the Kings, but it was actually a pretty big loss to the team.

The 15/16 regular season was a total anomaly.

The Kings won TWELVE 3V3 OT games that year, which grossly inflated their point totals.

That 15/16 team was competitive, but they weren't a real 106 point team, as evidenced by their quick exit in the playoffs.

 

[King'sPawn]

Imo, keeping Carter was more about being a consistent player younger prospects could learn from.

Toffoli and Pearson never showed they could take over as consistent offensive threats, and Kempe wasn't reliable as a second line center until last year.

Part of why DL could trade Johnson was because his role could be filled from within.

Part of why Blake could let Muzzin and Phaneuf go is because some defensemen are ready to step up in their roles.

Keeping Carter, etc for as long as they have is a symptom of forward prospects not pushing them out of a job. Whether it's drafting or development, it's been my biggest criticism of the organization.

This is why high end forward prospects are just as important as defensive prospects, so we have players who don't need a babysitter.

But now Carter's slowed down. He's still cheaper than any other tweener middle-six forward, considering some of the contracts being thrown out there.

There are definitely problems with the top players, but as many problems as we have, the second wave has failed to supplant ANY of them. What does that say about our infrastructure?

 

[crassbonanza]

agree the change in drafting has been huge, but I think it would have been that way if DL was still in charge. In one of his last interviews he talked about the need to keep picks and restock the prospect pool. So I think it was more of a organizational enlightenment that a Blake or DL strategy.

You could totally be right on that point that Dean planned on making that change, but the fact does remain that Blake took a completely different course of action than Dean did.

In Dean's last season he traded Cernak for 6 starts from Bishop at the deadline when the team was on the bubble at best.
In Blake's first season he traded a conditional 5th round pick for Torrey Mitchell when the Kings were one of the top teams in the conference at the deadline.

Blake very clearly was not going to mortgage the future on a deadline acquisition despite the team having new found success. I can respect him sticking to his plan, I wonder if Dean would have been able to.

 

[YP44]

You could totally be right on that point that Dean planned on making that change, but the fact does remain that Blake took a completely different course of action than Dean did.

In Dean's last season he traded Cernak for 6 starts from Bishop at the deadline when the team was on the bubble at best.
In Blake's first season he traded a conditional 5th round pick for Torrey Mitchell when the Kings were one of the top teams in the conference at the deadline.

Blake very clearly was not going to mortgage the future on a deadline acquisition despite the team having new found success. I can respect him sticking to his plan, I wonder if Dean would have been able to.

Cernak at the time was burred in LA's defensive prospect. He really has come on strong and good for him for doing it. That Bishop trade LA also moved up the draft too no?

 

[crassbonanza]

Cernak at the time was burred in LA's defensive prospect. He really has come on strong and good for him for doing it. That Bishop trade LA also moved up the draft too no?

Cernak was only a season and a half removed from being a 2nd round draft pick and the top pick by the Kings in 2015. Not sure that he should have been buried at that point already, especially with the lack of any young defensemen making an impact we are currently seeing. You are right though, they did move up from the 7th to the 5th in the trade, the full thing worked out to be Cernak, Budaj, 7th and a conditional pick for Bishop and a 5th. Still appears to be a horrible trade in my opinion.

 

[YP44]

Cernak was only a season and a half removed from being a 2nd round draft pick and the top pick by the Kings in 2015. Not sure that he should have been buried at that point already, especially with the lack of any young defensemen making an impact we are currently seeing. You are right though, they did move up from the 7th to the 5th in the trade, the full thing worked out to be Cernak, Budaj, 7th and a conditional pick for Bishop and a 5th. Still appears to be a horrible trade in my opinion.

I agree it is horrible. At the time I thought Tampa did not get enough for Bishop. No matter how weird it was him going to LA.

 

[KINGS17]

No. The point is that a group of players did not perform well enough since 2014, leading to the dismissal of the team's 2x Cup winning coach and GM. New GM came in and, in the face of the last three season's results, ran it back. He then bet on an outlier season from Kopitar, an insane record from back-up goalies and the belief that Carter's late season goal-scoring fluke was at least half legit and almost traded valuable futures for a long-term deal with Patches before being the desperate team that gave Kovy a full three year deal.

It was proven to be a massive miscalculation of the roster. Of course he couldn't trade any of these guys once they were mired in trash seasons: the point is his plan was to just keep running it back when there were no tangible results for three seasons already. There have been arguments about whether you could get anything for Carter going into 2018, but he was coming off of a great season. Now you can't give him away. This is where criticism comes in: there is no visionary aspect to Blake's GM'ing but just reactions. It is very traditional paint-by-numbers GM'ing which makes the hire questionable in the first place.

As for the bolded, the Kovalchuk name is pretty damning since you are saying he has no value, yet Blake signed him to a $6MM contract for three seasons just one summer ago. Ouch. Major misfire.

As I've said repeatedly and Bland stated very well earlier in this thread, there is no parade thrown for keeping the picks. DL said he was going to keep them prior to being canned. It was obvious when looking at the prospect pool and coming off of the horrible 2017 season. Now, it appears they have been drafting well and I'm very hopeful but we still don't actually know if they did draft well. Of course, picking #5OA really helps but it was on accident as Blake was shooting for that 1st round playoff exit draft position again. It was only once everything collapsed that they went in on this rebuild move.

Going for it in 2015 and 16 made sense. 2017 was going to be rough since they couldn't replace Lucic and DL didn't have any more chips or, more importantly, wasn't going to be tossing 1st round picks around. Blake takes over and does virtually nothing and his signature move in Kovalchuk was a giant misfire.

The crisis in faith comes from doing nothing right at the NHL level with the biggest feather in his cap being keeping draft picks and--based on projections--drafting well. I love the Muzzin trade but, again, it isn't hard to line up the 1st/prospects package for a Top 4 defenseman on a good contract and one additional year left on it. Kudos for doing it but it isn't like "This guy is a genius and will lead us to the promise land." I do like everything from the Muzzin trade forward but I am concerned that they won't see this all the way through and do something stupid too soon in the process. In the meantime, he's pretty much getting a mulligan for this upcoming season outside of the T-Mac evaluation but, let's face it, they are going to be better simply by not having Willie D and the fact that they seem to compete harder after down seasons: Kopitar especially. This will now be three full NHL seasons as a GM where he seems to still get a pass from a lot of people on here. When the hell can he start to be judged? If he was the president of the USA, he'd have to start campaigning for re-election after this upcoming season: it would be hard to win with his record so far.

Under Robitaille / Blake the stock market is down, unemployment is up, and the Kings are involved in three police actions.

 

[BigKing]

They soured on Cernak for whatever reason. Prior to Cernak developing for Tampa, I chalked it up to either a bad pick or a bad evaluation of talent leading to a bad trade.

Looks like the former now but I can guarantee this: Lombardi wasn't the one keeping tabs and scouting Cernak.

 

[Choralone]

No. The point is that a group of players did not perform well enough since 2014, leading to the dismissal of the team's 2x Cup winning coach and GM. New GM came in and, in the face of the last three season's results, ran it back. He then bet on an outlier season from Kopitar, an insane record from back-up goalies and the belief that Carter's late season goal-scoring fluke was at least half legit and almost traded valuable futures for a long-term deal with Patches before being the desperate team that gave Kovy a full three year deal.

It was proven to be a massive miscalculation of the roster. Of course he couldn't trade any of these guys once they were mired in trash seasons: the point is his plan was to just keep running it back when there were no tangible results for three seasons already. There have been arguments about whether you could get anything for Carter going into 2018, but he was coming off of a great season. Now you can't give him away. This is where criticism comes in: there is no visionary aspect to Blake's GM'ing but just reactions. It is very traditional paint-by-numbers GM'ing which makes the hire questionable in the first place.

Stevens was going to unshackle the offense with a revised system. I think we all felt that the teem was rejuvenated with Sutter and his style gone, and rather than getting unsustainable offense, we were finally seeing a Kings team that wasn't held back by playing a conservative, defense-first style. Sure, in hindsight we may say the production was an outlier - but last season's disaster was as well. The real team is still somewhere in between.

 

[kilowatt]

No. The point is that a group of players did not perform well enough since 2014, leading to the dismissal of the team's 2x Cup winning coach and GM. New GM came in and, in the face of the last three season's results, ran it back. He then bet on an outlier season from Kopitar, an insane record from back-up goalies and the belief that Carter's late season goal-scoring fluke was at least half legit and almost traded valuable futures for a long-term deal with Patches before being the desperate team that gave Kovy a full three year deal.

That's one way to look at it. Here's another: The Kings won their second championship in 14, had roster troubles in 15, had their best regular season in 16, and were without their Vezina-caliber goaltender in 17 (with coaching issues to boot). Blake takes over the team, the team wants Stevens as head coach, and they get off to their best start in franchise history. In the 17-18 playoffs, the Kings were down their TOP TWO defensemen for one game. Alec Martinez averaged 27 minutes of ice time in that series. I'd argue that if the Kings had acquired more depth at that trade deadline, we could have beat Vegas. Why is Carter's goal scoring a fluke that season? He lead the team in scoring the year before. Hell, I think Pacioretty might have helped LA beat Vegas.

Just because you say that Kovalchuk was a desperation move doesn't mean it was. The Kings didn't have to give up any assets to add a potentially-elite top six scorer. If Kovalchuk leads the team in scoring next season, what will you think of the signing?

It was proven to be a massive miscalculation of the roster. Of course he couldn't trade any of these guys once they were mired in trash seasons: the point is his plan was to just keep running it back when there were no tangible results for three seasons already. There have been arguments about whether you could get anything for Carter going into 2018, but he was coming off of a great season. Now you can't give him away. This is where criticism comes in: there is no visionary aspect to Blake's GM'ing but just reactions. It is very traditional paint-by-numbers GM'ing which makes the hire questionable in the first place.

As for the bolded, the Kovalchuk name is pretty damning since you are saying he has no value, yet Blake signed him to a $6MM contract for three seasons just one summer ago. Ouch. Major misfire.

I'll start by saying that I'm happy the Kings have a great young prospect pool now, but I still don't think it's crazy last summer to look at this team, see how well it performed during the regular season, and think that if Carter comes back and plays a full year and Kovalchuk gels in the top six, you'd have another great season. It's easy to say that it was a miscalculation in retrospect, but last summer, we had still made the playoffs two out of the previous three seasons, even though we didn't have success in the postseason. With regards to Kovalchuk, he scored 16 goals on 16 minutes of average time on ice. Only Wagner had a better goals scored per time on ice ratio. Given that we gave up no assets to gain Kovalchuk, what would you have preferred that we do? What could Blake have done better last offseason?

As I've said repeatedly and Bland stated very well earlier in this thread, there is no parade thrown for keeping the picks. DL said he was going to keep them prior to being canned. It was obvious when looking at the prospect pool and coming off of the horrible 2017 season. Now, it appears they have been drafting well and I'm very hopeful but we still don't actually know if they did draft well. Of course, picking #5OA really helps but it was on accident as Blake was shooting for that 1st round playoff exit draft position again. It was only once everything collapsed that they went in on this rebuild move.

Going for it in 2015 and 16 made sense. 2017 was going to be rough since they couldn't replace Lucic and DL didn't have any more chips or, more importantly, wasn't going to be tossing 1st round picks around. Blake takes over and does virtually nothing and his signature move in Kovalchuk was a giant misfire.

The crisis in faith comes from doing nothing right at the NHL level with the biggest feather in his cap being keeping draft picks and--based on projections--drafting well. I love the Muzzin trade but, again, it isn't hard to line up the 1st/prospects package for a Top 4 defenseman on a good contract and one additional year left on it. Kudos for doing it but it isn't like "This guy is a genius and will lead us to the promise land." I do like everything from the Muzzin trade forward but I am concerned that they won't see this all the way through and do something stupid too soon in the process. In the meantime, he's pretty much getting a mulligan for this upcoming season outside of the T-Mac evaluation but, let's face it, they are going to be better simply by not having Willie D and the fact that they seem to compete harder after down seasons: Kopitar especially. This will now be three full NHL seasons as a GM where he seems to still get a pass from a lot of people on here. When the hell can he start to be judged? If he was the president of the USA, he'd have to start campaigning for re-election after this upcoming season: it would be hard to win with his record so far.

Nothing right at the NHL level? That's a pretty bold claim. I'm not giving him a pass - I'm saying that I think he's done a pretty decent job. He inherited a pretty strong team, they had a pretty strong season his first year as GM, and he went on to add a piece without giving up any assets (Kovalchuk) and had reason to believe that with Carter back for a full season, the Kings would be even better. That didn't happen, so he recognized the window was likely closed and it was time to retool/rebuild. I guess we just fundamentally disagree on the team's makeup his first year as GM. The team's tremendous increase in scoring certainly felt like it was a result of a more offensive-minded coach in Stevens, as opposed to Sutter's style of play. I don't think it was crazy to think that Kopitar might trend higher than his career average in points moving forward. In retrospect, it wasn't correct. But I don't think it was out of the realm of possibility to repeat or improve upon their previous season.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

Stevens was going to unshackle the offense with a revised system. I think we all felt that the teem was rejuvenated with Sutter and his style gone, and rather than getting unsustainable offense, we were finally seeing a Kings team that wasn't held back by playing a conservative, defense-first style. Sure, in hindsight we may say the production was an outlier - but last season's disaster was as well. The real team is still somewhere in between.

At their best, the Kings were a great offensive team under Sutter. I feel like people confuse Sutter’s system with Terry Murray’s.

Terry Murray had a very passive “protect home plate” dump and chase system.

Sutter’s system was much more aggressive with at least one deep forechecker at all times. He also preferred a player to carry the puck into the o-zone.

The Kings struggled offensively because Sutter’s system always required them to work their asses off on the forecheck. The system necessitated constant forecheck pressure to force turnovers and create goal opportunities.

Stevens’s system simply allowed the first and second forward to cheat more in the defensive zone on potential fast breaks or transition plays. It was almost the exact same system as Sutter’s other than it didn’t demand as heavy of a forecheck, and it allowed players to cheat.

The Kings did well in 17/18 because they felt emotionally relieved and positive after Sutter left. They also had a favorable PDO and a dead average Corsi For. They were pretenders all season long.

 

[bouncesonly]

The real team is still somewhere in between.

I hope not. They need to be as good if not better offensively than the 2018 season. Anything less is a questionable playoff berth, considering the state of the defense, and never mind a playoff series win.

 

[johnjm22]

He then bet on an outlier season from Kopitar, an insane record from back-up goalies and the belief that Carter's late season goal-scoring fluke was at least half legit

I don't see it this way at all. If he had so much belief in this team, Blake would have traded for help at the 2018 deadline. Instead he did basically nothing. That speaks volumes to what he thought about the team.

Since Blake became GM my stance has been that I don't really care what they do, as long as they're holding onto on their picks/prospects. That's how you build.

They decided to see what the roster would do after making a coaching change and adding a scoring wing in free agency that cost them nothing. It was a perfectly reasonable thing to do and didn't affect the rebuilding process.

and almost traded valuable futures for a long-term deal with Patches before being the desperate team that gave Kovy a full three year deal.

If Blake tried to trade valuable futures for Patches he should be fired.

Despite the rumors and reports I'm not convinced that he actually did try. I'm sure he and Bergevin had a conversation, but reporting on these matters is unreliable and exaggerated. GM's take calls all the time. Ultimately it didn't happen and we don't know what went on so I don't see how he can be criticized for it. We just don't know.

It was proven to be a massive miscalculation of the roster. Of course he couldn't trade any of these guys once they were mired in trash seasons: the point is his plan was to just keep running it back when there were no tangible results for three seasons already. There have been arguments about whether you could get anything for Carter going into 2018, but he was coming off of a great season. Now you can't give him away.

I think this is a legit criticism, but a "massive miscalculation" is an exaggeration. Again, if he was so sold on the roster why didn't he make moves at the 2018 deadline?

Not trading Carter sooner was a mistake. But mistakes are inevitable. He's going to make more mistakes during this rebuild just like Dean did. Dean made a massive miscalculation by thinking the "New NHL" was all about skating. That's why he took Hickey. Big mistake. He waited too long to trade Visnovsky and Cammalleri. Gave away a second round pick for Cloutier. I could go on.

Mistakes aren't what matters because everyone makes mistakes. It's impossible not to. What matters is whether or not the ship overall is heading in the right direction. The ship is currently headed in the right direction. And I said the same thing when people were criticizing Dean's mistakes during his rebuild.

As for the bolded, the Kovalchuk name is pretty damning since you are saying he has no value, yet Blake signed him to a $6MM contract for three seasons just one summer ago. Ouch. Major misfire.

How is Kovalchuk a misfire? It's a near zero risk signing, and he may end up getting us a free pick or two. We'll see, but it's a perfectly reasonable move. It's like criticizing Dean because he signed Preissing or Nagy.

As I've said repeatedly and Bland stated very well earlier in this thread, there is no parade thrown for keeping the picks.

Blake takes over and does virtually nothing and his signature move in Kovalchuk was a giant misfire.

The crisis in faith comes from doing nothing right at the NHL level with the biggest feather in his cap being keeping draft picks and--based on projections--drafting well. .

Patience is one of the most important things for a GM to have. Doing nothing is by and large what you're supposed to do when your rebuilding. You're criticizing him for doing what's he's supposed to do; bide his time and build up the prospect pool.

The Hurricanes are bearing the fruit of Francis patience right now. For years he "Did nothing."

Are you going to call the Kovalchuk signing a giant misfire if we end up getting some free picks for him? Even if we don't, he costs nothing. That's not a "Giant" misfire.

This will now be three full NHL seasons as a GM where he seems to still get a pass from a lot of people on here. When the hell can he start to be judged? If he was the president of the USA, he'd have to start campaigning for re-election after this upcoming season: it would be hard to win with his record so far.

And what would Dean have campaigned on after 3 seasons of being Kings GM? That he got us a bunch of good picks and prospects? I'm sure most fans (voters) would be thrilled about that. It's like a President getting the deficit down. It's good for the long term but voters don't care because things aren't good RIGHT NOW.

The decisions a GM makes often aren't felt until years later. The position we're in now is because of decisions made 5 years ago and even further back. You know that.