Jets Upcoming Free Agents

[Buffdog]

Vilardi is the guy i'm wondering what happens with. I can see him signing for 6-7 years as his role (#1 RW, PP1) on a top team is pretty appealing. Not sure he gets that same role on another top team that has a chance to win every year. $7M aav or thereabouts should get Vilardi signed.

Connor will be a BIG contract. He could easily ask for Willy Nylander money ($11.5M aav) and someone would pay him that. If Chevy can sign him for around $10M aav, on a long-term deal, that would work very nicely.

I'm more concerned with Gabe's GF than him. He has to be loving the role he's in here. There are only 32 1RW spots in the league, as you point out

I guess it comes down to what he values.

 

[Gm0ney]

Tough to compare two players statistically on different teams... or at least thats what I was told at one point

Carolina's got pretty good defensive metrics across the board, arguably better than the Jets. They're a bit better at limiting shots, but the Jets are a bit better at limiting danger.

5v5	CA/60	FA/60	SA/60	GA/60	xGA/60	SCA/60	HDCA/60
CAR	49, 1st	36, 1st	24, 1st	2.54, 22nd	2.38, 11th	24, 5th	11, 21st
WPG	58, 13th	41, 15th	26, 13th	1.74, 1st	2.33, 6th	24, 6th	10, 9th

Looking at Slavin and Samberg on ice results (defensemen with 500+ TOI at 5v5, 214 players):

5v5	CA/60	FA/60	SA/60	GA/60	xGA/60	SCA/60	HDCA/60
Slavin	53, 20th	38, 40th	25, 47th	2.70, 156th	2.36, 66th	24, 47th	10, 73rd
Samberg	56, 64th	39, 55th	24, 18th	2.00, 37th	2.25, 30th	24, 36th	10, 53rd

Samberg's got better SA/60, xGA/60, SCA/60, and HDCA/60 (and of course way better GA/60, but that's mostly due to goaltending differences).

You could probably team-adjust those individual numbers. Slavin's 4 CA/60 worse than his team overall. Samberg's 2 CA/60 better than the Jets overall CA/60.

Almost across the board, Samberg's better than the Jets overall in CA, FA, SA, xGA, SCA, and HDCA (I rounded the decimals, but he's slightly better in both). GA is still influenced by luck, even at this sample size, so Samberg being at 2.00 vs the Jets overall 1.74 isn't particularly concerning. 37th best D in the league in GA/60 is still good. Especially when you consider his deployment (see below).

OTOH, Slavin's worse than the Canes overall in CA, FA, SA, GA, and SCA, but slightly better than the Canes in xGA, and HDCA.

But wait, there's more! Deployment:

Slavin gets 59.43% offensive zone starts, and 6.74 DZ starts/60.
Samberg gets just 32.02% offensive zone starts and 9.58 DZ starts/60.

So not only do Samberg's stats look better than Slavin's, Samberg's getting a tougher deployment.

So, in conclusion, Samberg's season has exceeded that of Slavin's in just about every measurable way (including individual points/60).

 

[JetsFan815]

Great news in Murat's article today that Mrs Samberg has opened her medical practice in Winnipeg

The mystery isn’t about Samberg’s commitment to Winnipeg or his bond with his teammates. His wife, Dr. Destiny Samberg, has begun her dental practice at a clinic on Roblin Ave.

Bodes well for him re-signing long term.

 

[wpgfishfan]

Unless Samberg agent is as bad at his job as Morrisey agent was no way he signs for less than 7 mill a year

 

[Buffdog]

Carolina's got pretty good defensive metrics across the board, arguably better than the Jets. They're a bit better at limiting shots, but the Jets are a bit better at limiting danger.

5v5	CA/60	FA/60	SA/60	GA/60	xGA/60	SCA/60	HDCA/60
CAR	49, 1st	36, 1st	24, 1st	2.54, 22nd	2.38, 11th	24, 5th	11, 21st
WPG	58, 13th	41, 15th	26, 13th	1.74, 1st	2.33, 6th	24, 6th	10, 9th

Looking at Slavin and Samberg on ice results (defensemen with 500+ TOI at 5v5, 214 players):

5v5	CA/60	FA/60	SA/60	GA/60	xGA/60	SCA/60	HDCA/60
Slavin	53, 20th	38, 40th	25, 47th	2.70, 156th	2.36, 66th	24, 47th	10, 73rd
Samberg	56, 64th	39, 55th	24, 18th	2.00, 37th	2.25, 30th	24, 36th	10, 53rd

Samberg's got better SA/60, xGA/60, SCA/60, and HDCA/60 (and of course way better GA/60, but that's mostly due to goaltending differences).

You could probably team-adjust those individual numbers. Slavin's 4 CA/60 worse than his team overall. Samberg's 2 CA/60 better than the Jets overall CA/60.

Almost across the board, Samberg's better than the Jets overall in CA, FA, SA, xGA, SCA, and HDCA (I rounded the decimals, but he's slightly better in both). GA is still influenced by luck, even at this sample size, so Samberg being at 2.00 vs the Jets overall 1.74 isn't particularly concerning. 37th best D in the league in GA/60 is still good. Especially when you consider his deployment (see below).

OTOH, Slavin's worse than the Canes overall in CA, FA, SA, GA, and SCA, but slightly better than the Canes in xGA, and HDCA.

But wait, there's more! Deployment:

Slavin gets 59.43% offensive zone starts, and 6.74 DZ starts/60.
Samberg gets just 32.02% offensive zone starts and 9.58 DZ starts/60.

So not only do Samberg's stats look better than Slavin's, Samberg's getting a tougher deployment.

So, in conclusion, Samberg's season has exceeded that of Slavin's in just about every measurable way (including individual points/60).

We must be into double digits with the number of times you've justified the use of an argument to prove your point that you previously dismissed when someone else used it to make a point you dosagreed with

For the record, I think that Slavin is an excellent comparable to Samberg. It's just mentally exhausting trying to keep track of what a person can and can't use as proof of their opinion since it's always changing

 

[Gm0ney]

We must be into double digits with the number of times you've justified the use of an argument to prove your point that you previously dismissed when someone else used it to make a point you dosagreed with

For the record, I think that Slavin is an excellent comparable to Samberg. It's just mentally exhausting trying to keep track of what a person can and can't use as proof of their opinion since it's always changing

I'm not sure what you're referring to. What have I previously dismissed? I was using a bunch of relevant defensive rate stats in combination to compare two players.

 

[Buffdog]

I'm not sure what you're referring to. What have I previously dismissed? I was using a bunch of relevant defensive rate stats in combination to compare two players.

Maybe it wasn't you... if so, I apologoze

I did the same thing with Necas and Ehlers and was told that I couldn't do that, specifically with CF% and xGF%. I can think of two or three posters who it might have been if it wasn't you

But you did for sure dismiss me when I used GF% as a reason why Stanley isn't complete shit but I've seen you use it to make cases since you did

Discussions and comparisons would be much easier if we all kind of agreed on how much weight certain stats and observations caried. Otherwise, the "well, yeah, BUT...." starts to creep in, and that's so frustrating when trying to have a discussion in good faith

 

[Gm0ney]

Maybe it wasn't you... if so, I apologoze

I did the same thing with Necas and Ehlers and was told that I couldn't do that, specifically with CF% and xGF%. I can think of two or three posters who it might have been if it wasn't you

But you did for sure dismiss me when I used GF% as a reason why Stanley isn't complete shit but I've seen you use it to make cases since you did

Discussions and comparisons would be much easier if we all kind of agreed on how much weight certain stats and observations caried. Otherwise, the "well, yeah, BUT...." starts to creep in, and that's so frustrating when trying to have a discussion in good faith

I'm always wary of GF% if it doesn't line up with anything else. The "This is a fluke!" alarm starts going off. Stanley's great GF% was kind of sticking out from the rest of his numbers. Bounces sometimes go your way for a while, but if there's not actually good play backstopping the goals, then it's likely that the bounces are going to start going the other way.

And yeah, just looking at a single shot metric for two players on different teams might need some attention to the context. Relative metrics come in handy there (comparing the player to his teammates). With the Samberg/Slavin comparison, it's pretty much every single metric up across the board and the case is even stronger when adjusting for the player compared to his team (relative) and their deployment.

I only said "don't worry about Samberg's GA/60 being slightly worse than the Jets overall GA/60" because it's almost certainly driven by goal randomness (and heavy dzone deployment) since his everything-else-defensive/60 is rock solid.

 

[macmaroon]

He will need some seasoning on the Moose.

Here you go...

 

[hockeyarena]

Going through the ufa list the only real people id be interested in taking a run at are Bennet, Jeannot, raddysh, and vladar? Not much there. Obviously marner would be a fine ehlers replacement but won't happen. Big opportunity for lambert next year.

 

[sipowicz]

Going through the ufa list the only real people id be interested in taking a run at are Bennet, Jeannot, raddysh, and vladar? Not much there. Obviously marner would be a fine ehlers replacement but won't happen. Big opportunity for lambert next year.

7 goals in 61 games with the Moose, yeah thats the guy who can replace Ehlers!

 

[Gil Fisher]

7 goals in 61 games with the Moose, yeah thats the guy who can replace Ehlers!

I think Ehlers was pretty much your first whipping boy, so we've come full circle. And thus Lambert clearly has a big future.

 

[Moloch]

I'm not very high on Lambert. He's got Similar speed to Ehlers, skating ability is a bit worse, and shot is nowhere near as good as Niks. Hockey IQ could also use some work.

 

[Whileee]

It's easy to forget how elite Ehlers was as a young player coming into the NHL. The Jets don't have any prospects that are particularly close to him in terms of pure talent, and I think it will take at least a couple of years for a player like Lambert or Chibrikov to be a reliable producer in the NHL, especially in the playoffs.

 

[jetsforever]

So we have potentially seen the last Jets game for Ehlers, Tanev, Appleton, Toninato, Fleury, Driedger, AJF, and Coghlan
Wonder who of those guys comes back

 

[Eyeseeing]

So we have potentially seen the last Jets game for Ehlers, Tanev, Appleton, Toninato, Fleury, Driedger, AJF, and Coghlan
Wonder who of those guys comes back

Hopefully
Fleury
Ehlers

 

[howkie]

AJF is rumored going back to Sweden, both Brynäs and Djurgården is in the mix..

 

[10Ducky10]

So we have potentially seen the last Jets game for Ehlers, Tanev, Appleton, Toninato, Fleury, Driedger, AJF, and Coghlan
Wonder who of those guys comes back

Toni back on the Moose would be okay.

 

[surixon]

I'm completely open to brining Fleury back to compete with Tree for the bottom pairing LD slot.

 

[GrassyKnoll]

Great news in Murat's article today that Mrs Samberg has opened her medical practice in Winnipeg



Bodes well for him re-signing long term.

I wonder if Mrs. Samberg gets this a lot?



Sorry, just couldn't help myself!

 

[JetsUK]

I'm completely open to brining Fleury back to compete with Tree for the bottom pairing LD slot.

Me too. Thought he had a generally strong season doing spot duty and showed some fine skill and consistency in the POs. Quick and skilled enough to be more versatile than some other 6/7 contenders.

Nik will be highly coveted, and is good as gone, IMO. Will be tough to lose a player of his brilliance, and no obvious replacements abound, but Jets might be able to get close as always by committee. IMO especially Salmo, but also Chibby and Lambert are poised to show well in the NHL, though will obviously make mistakes and require seasoning.

Maybe next year the team regresses a bit in the regular season and manages to pull it all together for the POs. But the Central will be merry hell.

 

[Moloch]

So we have potentially seen the last Jets game for Ehlers, Tanev, Appleton, Toninato, Fleury, Driedger, AJF, and Coghlan
Wonder who of those guys comes back

Coghlan was pretty damn good in the few games he got as a jet. Id keep him in the org 100%.

 

[Keystone]

Coghlan was pretty damn good in the few games he got as a jet. Id keep him in the org 100%.

I agree. He’s played on some defensively deep teams. I feel like if he can sign on with a team very shy on RHD he can establish himself as a bottom pair guy.

 

[avtarb]

Ehlers will be back no question about it.. only question is term and price.. way to embedded in the culture and organization to bail...

I think u have to bridge vilardi.. and he'd prolly prefer that.. but it's decent special teams contributer but average 5 on 5... nothing remarkable in terms or skating or playmaking

Jets night pursue toews in off season if he physically ready to return I can see yager getting spot on rotation next year to replace appleton

connor shieffle vilardi
Ehlers nemo prefetti
Nino Lowry yager
Barron toews kupari

 

[10Ducky10]

Ehlers re-sign him within reason.
Tanev let him go to make room for some prospects.
Appleton see Tanev.
Toninato re-sign him on a vet Moose contract.
Fleury re-sign him for 1 x 900k or so.
Driedger no idea...
AJF Moose if he stays on this side of the pond.
Coghlan re-sign on a two-way.

Volare 6 x 7m.
Barron 3 x 2.5m.
Kup 2 x 1.25m.
Samberg 8 x 6.75m.
Ford two-way deal.