Prospect Info: Jets Prospects

[Mortimer Snerd]

I still think Yager's #1 because it's likely IMO he becomes a 2C before Salomonsson becomes a top 4 NHL D. That would be the way I saw TC.

Also He's 3 point night vs. Walton's 0 head to head, maybe He's still ahead of him, like TC. And the draft.
Barlow/Walton to me are close. There's some work for both to do to get to the next level.

If Pionk walks, and I hope he does if that contract estimate from the Athletic is accurate, Salo could be playing in the NHL next year. Yager will just be playing his first pro year with the Moose.

 

[HughJazz3dg]

Do you guys feel like there will be a Rashevsky North American tour?

 

[voyageur]

If Pionk walks, and I hope he does if that contract estimate from the Athletic is accurate, Salo could be playing in the NHL next year. Yager will just be playing his first pro year with the Moose.

I don't read much into the Athletic estimates. Salomonsson as a rookie top 4 d trying to fill 23 minutes a night in a shutdown role seems like a good way to regress as a team. I know people are high on him, but I'd think the Jets probably grow him into a top 4 d-man the way they did Samberg, by achieving NHL success at a lower pairing first, maturing into greater responsibility.

 

[Buffdog]

I'll take a guy with high end tools that makes a huge leap over a guy who is showing steadier, more leveled off progress. Just prefer that as a better indicator of upside than consistency from age D-1 to D+2. A sharp upwards trajectory is pretty much the best green flag there is in prospects. Especially after their draft year.

Walton is outscoring Yager this year as a younger player. He is bigger, faster and is showing he may have more room to grow still.

Yager looks like a solid NHLer but nothing special to me. If Walton himself levels off next year then it's a different discussion.

What's happening this year means so much compared to long sample sizes you want from pros to evaluate.

To me evaluating off a realistic ceiling is the only way to do it. What good is evaluating a floor if it's a 3rd/4th liner vs AHLer? You can get these types in trade or FA every year.

It's not like I'm anti Yager, I just don't think his profile makes him the sure fire 2C we seem to be pegging him as out of NHL club need. I sure hope he is. Even a guy like Bryan Little was a higher scorer and made the NHL earlier than Yager.

If that makes me guilty of shiny new toy syndrome or underdog syndrome? So be it... I'm trying to go off of what I know, and not rely on accolades like CHL Rookie of the Year or Team Canada's U-20 captain to gauge what i think he will be one day.

The CHL is littered with guys who were big scorers who never had their game translate to the pros. I'm not saying that's Walton, but his D+1 numbers are the same as Nic Petan and hundreds of others

This is why scouts actually watch players play (not just highlights) and don't just look at the scoring tables.

You may dosmiss the fact that Yager was captain of the U20 team, but there's a reason t hat he's been representing his country since he was 16 and Walton was a late round pick.

Your opinion is 1000% recency bias, which is fine since you're willing to admit it

 

[snowkiddin]

what does your top 10 prospects list look like right now?

Lots of great discussion in this thread today.

Here’s my personal top 10:

1. Nikita Chibrikov
2. Brad Lambert
3. Elias Salomonsson
4. Brayden Yager
5. Chaz Lucius
6. Kieron Walton
7. Kevin He
8. Alfons Freij
9. Colby Barlow
10. Domenic DiVincentiis

 

[Shlep]

Yager
Chibrikov
Salomonsson
Lambert
Walton
Freij
Lucius
Barlow
He
DiVincentiis

 

[Gil Fisher]

what does your top 10 prospects list look like right now?

What have you done?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'll take a guy with high end tools that makes a huge leap over a guy who is showing steadier, more leveled off progress. Just prefer that as a better indicator of upside than consistency from age D-1 to D+2. A sharp upwards trajectory is pretty much the best green flag there is in prospects. Especially after their draft year.

Walton is outscoring Yager this year as a younger player. He is bigger, faster and is showing he may have more room to grow still.

Yager looks like a solid NHLer but nothing special to me. If Walton himself levels off next year then it's a different discussion.

What's happening this year means so much compared to long sample sizes you want from pros to evaluate.

To me evaluating off a realistic ceiling is the only way to do it. What good is evaluating a floor if it's a 3rd/4th liner vs AHLer? You can get these types in trade or FA every year.

It's not like I'm anti Yager, I just don't think his profile makes him the sure fire 2C we seem to be pegging him as out of NHL club need. I sure hope he is. Even a guy like Bryan Little was a higher scorer and made the NHL earlier than Yager.

If that makes me guilty of shiny new toy syndrome or underdog syndrome? So be it... I'm trying to go off of what I know, and not rely on accolades like CHL Rookie of the Year or Team Canada's U-20 captain to gauge what i think he will be one day.

Agree with you on the steeper trajectory. I just don't think Walton has been on that trajectory long enough yet.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The CHL is littered with guys who were big scorers who never had their game translate to the pros. I'm not saying that's Walton, but his D+1 numbers are the same as Nic Petan and hundreds of others

This is why scouts actually watch players play (not just highlights) and don't just look at the scoring tables.

You may dosmiss the fact that Yager was captain of the U20 team, but there's a reason t hat he's been representing his country since he was 16 and Walton was a late round pick.

Your opinion is 1000% recency bias, which is fine since you're willing to admit it

There's a bit more than that to watching the scoring stats. Petan had similar scoring numbers, in a higher scoring league, but had regressed from D+0.

The expert observers eye-test still matters too. But they get a lot of players wrong.

 

[AtomicJets]

I don't really understand the rankings. Is it by ceiling or likelihood to make the NHL or what? How can I compare Kevin He to Elias Salomonsson to Dom DiVincentiis?

 

[WiscoJet]

Credit to the scouts for finding Walton and He. They weren't given much to work with in terms of draft capital in 2024 and they pulled those guys out of nowhere.

1. RD-Elias Salomonsson
2. C-Brayden Yager
3. C/RW-Brad Lambert
4. LW-Nikita Chibrikov
5. LW-Kieron Walton
6. LW-Kevin He
7. LD-Alfons Freij
8. G-Domenic DiVincentiis
9. C-Chaz Lucius
10. LW-Colby Barlow

 

[Flair Hay]

The CHL is littered with guys who were big scorers who never had their game translate to the pros. I'm not saying that's Walton, but his D+1 numbers are the same as Nic Petan and hundreds of others

This is why scouts actually watch players play (not just highlights) and don't just look at the scoring tables.

You may dosmiss the fact that Yager was captain of the U20 team, but there's a reason t hat he's been representing his country since he was 16 and Walton was a late round pick.

Your opinion is 1000% recency bias, which is fine since you're willing to admit it

Of course CHL is littered with high scorers that didn't make it. That applies equally to both guys in this case.

What you call recency bias i see as a steep upward trajectory. No one knows for sure how they will translate very well. Not me, not the scouts, the GMs, anyone. Just having some fun with a take i don't think is so bold but everyone else does.

I don't really understand the rankings. Is it by ceiling or likelihood to make the NHL or what? How can I compare Kevin He to Elias Salomonsson to Dom DiVincentiis?

It's true everyone has different criteria

 

[Flair Hay]

I don't read much into the Athletic estimates. Salomonsson as a rookie top 4 d trying to fill 23 minutes a night in a shutdown role seems like a good way to regress as a team. I know people are high on him, but I'd think the Jets probably grow him into a top 4 d-man the way they did Samberg, by achieving NHL success at a lower pairing first, maturing into greater responsibility.

Can't remember how they rate against Evolving Hockey but they came be pretty darn accurate.

Agreed on Salomonsson. We didn't even let Trouba into the top 4 until his ELC was done and even after that it took a bit.

 

[scelaton]

1 - Chibrikov--NHL ready, high floor, lower ceiling
2 - Salomonsson--high ceiling (top pair) and floor (bottom4), but either way will play in the NHL
3 -Yager-Bryan Little potential, a year or two away
4 -Walton--trajectory is impressive, good size, needs to keep it up next season
5- Lambert--lots of sizzle, but not yet convinced he is the real thing
6 - Frej-haven't seen much but looks like a very solid top-4D prospect
7-He -He has to make it, for so many reasons other than hockey
8- Lucius--tall hill to climb, despite his talent
9-DiVincentiis-Voodoo, why not?
10-Barlow-Almost didn't make the list. A long shot, as opposed to a hard shot, IMO

 

[Whileee]

The CHL is littered with guys who were big scorers who never had their game translate to the pros. I'm not saying that's Walton, but his D+1 numbers are the same as Nic Petan and hundreds of others

This is why scouts actually watch players play (not just highlights) and don't just look at the scoring tables.

You may dosmiss the fact that Yager was captain of the U20 team, but there's a reason t hat he's been representing his country since he was 16 and Walton was a late round pick.

Your opinion is 1000% recency bias, which is fine since you're willing to admit it

If Petan was 6'6" and skated like Walton... Size and speed aren't everything, but they aren't irrelevant variables, either.

 

[AtomicJets]

Pionk already makes almost 6M and that's not going to go down, given his recent production. I'd say 7M is a fair guess. Whether it will be the Jets paying him, who knows?

Would we go into next season with DeMelo, Miller, Salomonsson and Coghlan on the right side? Is that enough? It's risky. Even if you add Heinola into that mix. There's no guarantee anyone could handle those top four minutes. I like Salomonsson's chances of coming in and winning a spot on the third pair but anything more than that is probably a reach.

 

[Whileee]

Pionk already makes almost 6M and that's not going to go down, given his recent production. I'd say 7M is a fair guess. Whether it will be the Jets paying him, who knows?

Would we go into next season with DeMelo, Miller, Salomonsson and Coghlan on the right side? Is that enough? It's risky. Even if you add Heinola into that mix. There's no guarantee anyone could handle those top four minutes. I like Salomonsson's chances of coming in and winning a spot on the third pair but anything more than that is probably a reach.

Just a reminder Pionk's production and performance in the two years prior to his current contract were considerably better than the past couple of seasons. He was going into his peak ages, too. So I don't see a strong rationale to boost his cap % at this point.

 

[MyNameIsTaken]

2 - Salomonsson--high floor (top pair) and ceiling (bottom4), but either way will play in the NHL

 

[AtomicJets]

Just a reminder Pionk's production and performance in the two years prior to his current contract were considerably better than the past couple of seasons. He was going into his peak ages, too. So I don't see a strong rationale to boost his cap % at this point.

He'll get offers. Right now he's got the 55th highest cap hit among defencemen. Over the four years of his current contract he's 39th in points among defencemen. He's proven he can play in a top four role, he's smallish but physical, he can score, he's a right shot. Yes his prime is probably coming to an end but many defencemen play well in their early 30s.

I can see the argument that we should let him go and let our younger players compete for his spot. But one way or another, Pionk is getting paid. There's no way his next contract is under 6M.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If Petan was 6'6" and skated like Walton... Size and speed aren't everything, but they aren't irrelevant variables, either.

Even at the size he has, if he could just skate a little faster he would probably have made it.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Pionk already makes almost 6M and that's not going to go down, given his recent production. I'd say 7M is a fair guess. Whether it will be the Jets paying him, who knows?

Would we go into next season with DeMelo, Miller, Salomonsson and Coghlan on the right side? Is that enough? It's risky. Even if you add Heinola into that mix. There's no guarantee anyone could handle those top four minutes. I like Salomonsson's chances of coming in and winning a spot on the third pair but anything more than that is probably a reach.

But if Chevy is willing to pay Pionk we have him for 5-6 years. Age 30 to 34-35. No more contract years.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

He'll get offers. Right now he's got the 55th highest cap hit among defencemen. Over the four years of his current contract he's 39th in points among defencemen. He's proven he can play in a top four role, he's smallish but physical, he can score, he's a right shot. Yes his prime is probably coming to an end but many defencemen play well in their early 30s.

I can see the argument that we should let him go and let our younger players compete for his spot. But one way or another, Pionk is getting paid. There's no way his next contract is under 6M.

Honestly, I think 7 mil is the min. If not here then somewhere else. Then there is term.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Pionk's 5v5 point production is quite similar to Dylan Demelo's actually, over the past 2.5 years.

Also, Jaccob Slavin, Brady Skjei, Jake McCabe, Justin Faulk and Rasmus Andersson. Also a bunch of others.

Slavin has an 8 year extension kicking in next year that will cover age 31 to 39. It's a shade under $6.4m AAV.

Can't see him getting Slavin money or term.

When I think of Pionk still chugging around out there at age 35, I get images of late term Randy Carlyle.

I think it's a tough one.

 

[scelaton]

oops, thanks, corrected it.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Dammit we turned the prospects thread into a Pionk extension discussion. Mods!