Jets Nation Trade Deadline Series

[garret9]

Hey Guys and Girls,

I'll be writing up daily articles on the pending trade deadline as we approach d-day. Come check out some fun analysis.

This week, we at Jets Nation hope to provide you with some of the best (and free) in-depth coverage of the Winnipeg Jets as the trade deadline date fast approaches us. We'll take a look at what the Jets have done, could do, and should do, with all the reasoning why and why not.

As usual, I'll post all parts of the series in one thread, as I don't want to spam with multiple threads. It also makes it easier to ignore/follow if you want to.

1. Flight inventory
2. Three thoughts as we may say farewell to our captain
3. Three players possibly on the block
4. Should Jets' fans cheer for or against the Blackhawks?

(more to come)

Click to read more...

 

[garret9]

Article one was from yesterday, sorta talking about needs and gots:

We start off our series with taking an inventory of the Jets stock and what they have to give up and what they need to get back.

http://jetsnation.ca/2016/2/22/jets-trade-deadline-2016-flight-inventory

 

[garret9]

Article two was on Ladd's time as a Jet, some notes on the interest surrounding him, and how the Jets look to replace his loss.

We turn our series looking at the Jets' captain and leader Andrew Ladd, who may play his last home game as a Jet tonight.

http://jetsnation.ca/2016/2/23/jets...houghts-as-we-may-say-farewell-to-our-captain

 

[Runforthecup]

Thanks Garret,

This is a great thread. I like the way you look at things. As you get more into it I suspect you will be doing more detailed analysis of our prospect pool. I look forward to it.

Leaving out players who are currently playing for the Jets, my current thoughts on our prospect pool are as follows. I can hardly wait for you to shoot me down. I tend to rate prospects on a 75%, 50%, 25% chance of having a 150 plus game NHL career. My current evaluations of our prospect pool are as follows:
75%-Connor, Lemieux, Morrisey, Petan.
50%-Nogier, Glover,(don't write off young D's with excellent +/-), Poolman(watching him suggests to me this crowd underestimates him), DeLeo, Roslovic.
25%-Foley, Lipon, Niku, Kosmachuk, Kostalek, Harkins, Spacek, Phillips, Kraskovski, Gennaro.
Those percentages would give us about 8 NHL players over the next 3-4 years. This excludes anybody we draft this year and next and anybody I have left out.

Lets keep this thread on the front board.

 

[Puckatron 3000]

2. Three thoughts as we may say farewell to our captain

Good stuff.

In your discussion of Connor being ready for the NHL:

You point out his killer stats in the NCAA, and say there is nothing left for Connor there. Seems reasonable. But that isn't quite the same as saying he's ready for the NHL. Thoughts? Do you think he will catch on as well as Ehlers has? Willing to go out on a limb and make a prediction there?

_____________

In regards to LLW, you say:

Despite not having that "elite talent" everyone thought the Jets missed, they performed as well, and sometimes better, than many of the lines with elite talent and more depth backing them. They matched up against the other team's best and often outshot and outscored them.

I have always been of the opinion that elite talent is not necessary to be a contender. This puts me at odds with most other HFBoard posters.

Rather, I think it's all about maximizing the value of each player at every position. Compare Little at 1C (4.7AAV) to an elite center making twice as much. Little may be as good of selection for 1C, since that gives you ~5 million extra to spread across the rest of your roster.

Teams with elite talent will often suffer in other positions due to the high cost of that elite talent. Also, they're more susceptible to injury or a down season of an individual player. Eggs in one basket, and all that.

Sure, one can point to recent cup winners like the Hawks and Kings, and point out they have had elite talent. But other teams with elite talent, like the Penguins, have not fared so well.

While we have not seen a team without elite talent win a cup lately, I certainly think it's not only possible, but a viable strategy.

Thoughts?
_____________

Also, there's a poll on your site:

Now that Buff is signed, Jets should

• Trade Ladd
• Sign Ladd
• Hold Pat

I was unfortunately unable to answer, because I don't know who Pat is. Nor his or her gender.

 

[10Ducky10]

Good stuff.

In your discussion of Connor being ready for the NHL:

You point out his killer stats in the NCAA, and say there is nothing left for Connor there. Seems reasonable. But that isn't quite the same as saying he's ready for the NHL. Thoughts? Do you think he will catch on as well as Ehlers has? Willing to go out on a limb and make a prediction there?

_____________

In regards to LLW, you say:


I have always been of the opinion that elite talent is not necessary to be a contender. This puts me at odds with most other HFBoard posters.

Rather, I think it's all about maximizing the value of each player at every position. Compare Little at 1C (4.7AAV) to an elite center making twice as much. Little may be as good of selection for 1C, since that gives you ~5 million extra to spread across the rest of your roster.

Teams with elite talent will often suffer in other positions due to the high cost of that elite talent. Also, they're more susceptible to injury or a down season of an individual player. Eggs in one basket, and all that.

Sure, one can point to recent cup winners like the Hawks and Kings, and point out they have had elite talent. But other teams with elite talent, like the Penguins, have not fared so well.

While we have not seen a team without elite talent win a cup lately, I certainly think it's not only possible, but a viable strategy.

Thoughts?
_____________

Also, there's a poll on your site:



I was unfortunately unable to answer, because I don't know who Pat is. Nor his or her gender.

He's putting up better numbers than Eichel or Larkin, he is ready now.

 

[Nickel eye Heel hers]

I think PAT was a Saturday night live reference

I think Connor is very good, but he has also had some very good chemistry with his linemates. I think you'd almost have to pair him up with Ehlers and ? to get the most production out of him at the NHL level.

I can understand the perspective of not having an elite 1st line to have cap money put into a stronger depth line. Something the Jets could have been better at. Replacing the Scoreburns, Peluso's, and Stuarts, for higher end 4th line talent.

I also want to say Garrets write ups were an interesting read and good perspective.

 

[10Ducky10]

I think PAT was a Saturday night live reference

I think Connor is very good, but he has also had some very good chemistry with his linemates. I think you'd almost have to pair him up with Ehlers and ? to get the most production out of him at the NHL level.

I can understand the perspective of not having an elite 1st line to have cap money put into a stronger depth line. Something the Jets could have been better at. Replacing the Scoreburns, Peluso's, and Stuarts, for higher end 4th line talent.

I also want to say Garrets write ups were an interesting read and good perspective.

Connor Scheif Ehlers
or
Connor Little Wheeler

 

[garret9]

Another new piece: Three players possibly on the block.

We turn our series looking at three possible players on the trade block for the Winnipeg Jets, aside from the obvious Andrew Ladd candidate. Not necessarily who they should trade, but who they may trade or have other teams interested in.

http://jetsnation.ca/2016/2/24/jets-trade-deadline-2016-three-non-ladd-players-possibly-on-the-block

 

[JetsFan815]

Great series Garret. I agree trading Trouba for someone like Hamonic will be disastrous. Part of me is nervous that our management might be seduced by Hamonic's low cost in terms of real dollars, let's hope cooler heads prevail at the end of the day

 

[csk]

Great series Garret. I agree trading Trouba for someone like Hamonic will be disastrous. Part of me is nervous that our management might be seduced by Hamonic's low cost in terms of real dollars, let's hope cooler heads prevail at the end of the day

the only way this trade works for me is if the isles add a first round pick

 

[garret9]

After Winnipeg Jets' general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff sent Andrew Ladd to gun for another cup, some of the Jets' fans started expressing concern whether they should be cheering for Ladd to win the cup or not. Most (should be all, really) Jets fans truly appreciated the Jets' captain, and wishes success for him...

...but there are some of us who are more analytical than emotional.

Part of the Jets' return was a conditional pick. The condition was this: if the Chicago Blackhawks win the Stanley Cup, they will throw the Jets a third round pick in 2018. However, this would also mean the Hawks won their series in the playoffs, diminishing the value of the 2016 first round pick the Jets also received in return for Ladd.

So from this all business perspective, should the Jets cheer for Ladd to win?

Discerning the true value of a pick is difficult, especially when there are subjective elements like whether it is better to receive one good player versus two weaker but combinative equal players.

There is one way we can look at it though, with looking at the value of these picks relative to that of the first overall selection. This is something I've studied before, looking at the relative difference in pick selection value when used to garner new prospects versus trading for other draft picks.

http://jetsnation.ca/2016/2/27/jets...uld-the-jets-cheer-for-or-against-andrew-ladd