Speculation: Jets - General Rumour, Trade, Free Agent and Waiver Speculation 14-15 Part XI

[JC Numminen]

Quick question:

How high do you think we could move up if we flipped both our 1st's for 1 first?

Top 10? Not saying they should do it, but if someone TNSE wants badly slips a little, it could be a possibility.

 

[CaptainChef]

How did Bergevin blow Subban's negotiation 2 years earlier? He wanted a 2 year bridge and got it. The vast majority of GM's would rather pay more for something they know, rather then pay a little less on an unknown. You haven't seen other GM's now back away from bridge deals have you? Even for top young players. Subban turned into a Norris winner. Explain how having one of your players turn into a franchise player is getting screwed. You have to pay for that. And I hope Chevy gets screwed a few times then. The only long term contract Chevy signed off an ELC was Kane's all the rest fall into the same bridge deal and then long term contact mode as Subban. Just none of them were franchise players. Too bad for us. Soon there will also be other d-man with higher AVV, and by the end of the contract it will likely look like a deal. And BTW quoting a hockey news article hardly proves a point.

But that wasn't even the main point of my comment. Subban's or Frolik's previous contract wasn't the point, and really had little to do with what I was arguing. My point was Chevy bailed with 2-3 days left of negotiating time and the agent got exactly what he wanted. It wasn't a choice between a bridge and a long term deal. It was a choice between a long term deal and watching the player walk for nothing at the soonest opportunity. Maybe nothing more was available but we will never know. At the very least Chevy would have a better feel for Walsh's intent. On the other hand Bergevin hung in there until the last minute and got a deal done. Over paying a bit is far superior to watching a top young player walk for nothing.

This is what really pissed me off on that negotiation as well. Chevy the negotiator hasn't been too impressive -- certainly not when it involves Walsh

 

[Aavco Cup]

This is what really pissed me off on that negotiation as well. Chevy the negotiator hasn't been too impressive -- certainly not when it involves Walsh

Chevy's option was to go to arbitration, The situation would be exactly the same with maybe 200k difference one way or another in Fro's salary. Chevy wasn't willing to cave and neither was Walsh. That's how I see it. It was smart to avoid the hearing at that point.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Chevy's option was to go to arbitration, The situation would be exactly the same with maybe 200k difference one way or another in Fro's salary. Chevy wasn't willing to cave and neither was Walsh. That's how I see it. It was smart to avoid the hearing at that point.

No. His first option was to continue to negotiate right up until the last minute. Then his next option was to negotiate after the arbitration hearing before the arbitrators decision was announced. There have been plenty of contracts signed right up to the last minute. Chevy quite way early. Would it have made any difference? Who knows? Negotiations are a game of strength. You don't give up any advantage, no matter how small, without a fight.

 

[Aavco Cup]

No. His first option was to continue to negotiate right up until the last minute. Then his next option was to negotiate after the arbitration hearing before the arbitrators decision was announced. There have been plenty of contracts signed right up to the last minute. Chevy quite way early. Would it have made any difference? Who knows? Negotiations are a game of strength. You don't give up any advantage, no matter how small, without a fight.

If Chevy was already at his max for $ and term and the sides were still far apart, I fail to see how negotiating longer would have solved anything. The other side gave up the financial security of a long term deal. They was alway a risk of a career ending injury. Why didn't Wash continue to negotiate until the last minute? Probably the same reason. The sides were too far apart and neither was budging.

 

[Whileee]

If Chevy was already at his max for $ and term and the sides were still far apart, I fail to see how negotiating longer would have solved anything. The other side gave up the financial security of a long term deal. They was alway a risk of a career ending injury. Why didn't Wash continue to negotiate until the last minute? Probably the same reason. The sides were too far apart and neither was budging.

This seems to be the most likely scenario. The Jets and Walsh/Frolik have been too far apart on their perspective of what Frolik is worth, so they haven't been able to conclude a contract. Anyone who would blame Chevy for failing to get a deal with Walsh/Frolik is basically saying that Chevy should have agreed to a deal that he think is too much for a player like Frolik. It's not like Chevy hasn't negotiated a bunch of other important deals. Most folks think that the big deals he's signed with others have been pretty good value (Little, Wheeler, Ladd, Enstrom, Kane, Bogo).

I think Frolik and his agent set a high bar for the Jets, and basically said that if the Jets bite it would be great, but if not they are anxious to see what they can get on the open market. The Jets will just have to live with that.

 

[scelaton]

No. His first option was to continue to negotiate right up until the last minute. Then his next option was to negotiate after the arbitration hearing before the arbitrators decision was announced. There have been plenty of contracts signed right up to the last minute. Chevy quite way early. Would it have made any difference? Who knows? Negotiations are a game of strength. You don't give up any advantage, no matter how small, without a fight.

I think the bolded is the root of the misunderstanding here. People who have been involved in traditional labour negotiations, or watched them from a distance, see them as a a "game of strength", but in this case they were not. Why? Because Chevy had very little leverage over Frolik, who knew he would not be locked out, would earn a predictable salary and then would have 29 potential better offers to choose from a year later. The only risk here was that of injury, and that was relatively low.
Chevy was and is playing a game of finesse, not strength, because he understands the rules.
If Frolik is lost this year, it will not be because Chevy was not "strong", or a smart negotiator, but because the CBA put Frolik in a position of incontestable strength.

 

[Channelcat]

Quick question:

How high do you think we could move up if we flipped both our 1st's for 1 first?

Top 10? Not saying they should do it, but if someone TNSE wants badly slips a little, it could be a possibility.

I suspect they could move quite high as the drop off from 6-17 is actually a fairly slim. Philly at 7 already have two picks, so I dont think they would do it. New Jersey at 6, needs picks so I think they might be a good partner in a pick swap. I suspect that CBJ, SJ, COL at 8, 9 ,10 would all be willing to talk swap. I really really like our 17 spot....especially if we can get (my) guy, Bittner.

 

[Whileee]

I think the bolded is the root of the misunderstanding here. People who have been involved in traditional labour negotiations, or watched them from a distance, see them as a a "game of strength", but in this case they were not. Why? Because Chevy had very little leverage over Frolik, who knew he would not be locked out, would earn a predictable salary and then would have 29 potential better offers to choose from a year later. The only risk here was that of injury, and that was relatively low.
Chevy was and is playing a game of finesse, not strength, because he understands the rules.
If Frolik is lost this year, it will not be because Chevy was not "strong", or a smart negotiator, but because the CBA put Frolik in a position of incontestable strength.

Also, Chevy knows that there are opportunity costs to overpaying for a player. Whatever he spends on Frolik is not available for other players. He might have better options for spending his fixed budget.

 

[Whileee]

I suspect they could move quite high as the drop off from 6-17 is actually a fairly slim. Philly at 7 already have two picks, so I dont think they would do it. New Jersey at 6, needs picks so I think they might be a good partner in a pick swap. I suspect that CBJ, SJ, COL at 8, 9 ,10 would all be willing to talk swap. I really really like our 17 spot....especially if we can get (my) guy, Bittner.

Bittner is one of the guys that worries me. I wonder how much of his success is due to playing with Petan and Bjorkstrand.

 

[veganhunter]

Bittner is one of the guys that worries me. I wonder how much of his success is due to playing with Petan and Bjorkstrand.

I don't like Bitter at all. His numbers are incredibly unimpressive for a guy who played a majority of his minutes with 2 junior superstars.

 

[Huffer]

Smith is an add-on, true. But Carle? Is a second pairing of Carle-Trouba really a step back?

If that's the case, we should probably focus on forwards.

Honestly, for me it is.

In the case of Carle, I don't believe that it makes sense to spend the assets to acquire him when I don't think his upgrade on Chariot is that high. He's an upgrade, but I just don't see enough of one to justify the costs. Plus, he's making 5.5 million, and I don't think he's worth anywhere near that, so his contract hurts us big time IMO, both now and going forward. He'd be the 3rd highest paid player on the team, and I believe the oldest. At this stage, the Bolts are using him on the 3rd pair behind Hedman and Garrison. Not the direction I personally would want the Jets to go.

And this is in regards to a hypothetical Buff trade, where I think if the Jets do move him, have to turn him into a piece, or possibly pieces that could turn into part of the "core" moving forward. I don't see a guy like Carle or Smith as a big enough upgrade on Chariot (or Morrissey) to want to justify using a big trade chip like Buff on. I certainly wouldn't view them as core pieces. Neither of their teams do.

That's my thoughts though.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If Chevy was already at his max for $ and term and the sides were still far apart, I fail to see how negotiating longer would have solved anything. The other side gave up the financial security of a long term deal. They was alway a risk of a career ending injury. Why didn't Wash continue to negotiate until the last minute? Probably the same reason. The sides were too far apart and neither was budging.

Walsh didn't need to continue. He had what he wanted. Why don't we see that pattern of negotiating more often? Neither is budging? You go home and tell Walsh you'll see him at arbitration and wait for him to call you. You don't just cave. You use every tool you have. If you really want to avoid arbitration sign the contract Chevy signed but not until 30 seconds before the hearing begins.

 

[sully1410]

I still scratch my head that Vancouver traded Garrison, for as little as they did, they probably would have been better off keeping for the pittance they traded him for

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think the bolded is the root of the misunderstanding here. People who have been involved in traditional labour negotiations, or watched them from a distance, see them as a a "game of strength", but in this case they were not. Why? Because Chevy had very little leverage over Frolik, who knew he would not be locked out, would earn a predictable salary and then would have 29 potential better offers to choose from a year later. The only risk here was that of injury, and that was relatively low.
Chevy was and is playing a game of finesse, not strength, because he understands the rules.
If Frolik is lost this year, it will not be because Chevy was not "strong", or a smart negotiator, but because the CBA put Frolik in a position of incontestable strength.

Your bold does not mean it isn't a game of strength. You are just saying that Chevy was not in a very strong position. I'm not going to argue that. He was in the same position every GM is in with every player who can see UFA on the horizon. Would Chevy have been able to get any better result? Probably not without overpaying. But we'll never know because Chevy didn't take the fight to the end.

 

[Flair Hay]

This seems to be the most likely scenario. The Jets and Walsh/Frolik have been too far apart on their perspective of what Frolik is worth, so they haven't been able to conclude a contract. Anyone who would blame Chevy for failing to get a deal with Walsh/Frolik is basically saying that Chevy should have agreed to a deal that he think is too much for a player like Frolik. It's not like Chevy hasn't negotiated a bunch of other important deals. Most folks think that the big deals he's signed with others have been pretty good value (Little, Wheeler, Ladd, Enstrom, Kane, Bogo).

I think Frolik and his agent set a high bar for the Jets, and basically said that if the Jets bite it would be great, but if not they are anxious to see what they can get on the open market. The Jets will just have to live with that.

Very well said. People saying it was a mistake not getting him signed are the same ones that would think the number Walsh is asking for is crazy.

I have faith Chevy will try to get something done last minute. Whether Fro is back or not depends on how much he wants his paycheck to be and where he wants to play.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Walsh didn't need to continue. He had what he wanted. Why don't we see that pattern of negotiating more often? Neither is budging? You go home and tell Walsh you'll see him at arbitration and wait for him to call you. You don't just cave. You use every tool you have. If you really want to avoid arbitration sign the contract Chevy signed but not until 30 seconds before the hearing begins.

OK but you still end up in exactly the same place as you are today. Walsh did not get what he wanted which was a long term deal on his terms.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

OK but you still end up in exactly the same place as you are today. Walsh did not get what he wanted which was a long term deal on his terms.

Walsh did get his client to UFA.

The thing is that we don't know what would have happened if Chevy had played out the game. I know I have heard of deals made in the hall outside the arbitration room and I have also heard of deals being reached after they went through all the hassle of the arbitration hearing. There were probably some hurt feelings in those cases but they get over that. Everybody understands that process. I realize that the result would probably have turned out the same but it is not certain.

I can't recall ever having heard of a GM throwing in his hand like that before, in all the sports I have followed over the last 50 years. I have heard after the fact the report to the effect of 'we both wanted to avoid the nastiness of arbitration so we compromised at the last minute. We paid a little more than we thought we should and they accepted a little less than they thought they should get'. It does happen.

 

[surixon]

Walsh did get his client to UFA.

The thing is that we don't know what would have happened if Chevy had played out the game. I know I have heard of deals made in the hall outside the arbitration room and I have also heard of deals being reached after they went through all the hassle of the arbitration hearing. There were probably some hurt feelings in those cases but they get over that. Everybody understands that process. I realize that the result would probably have turned out the same but it is not certain.

I can't recall ever having heard of a GM throwing in his hand like that before, in all the sports I have followed over the last 50 years. I have heard after the fact the report to the effect of 'we both wanted to avoid the nastiness of arbitration so we compromised at the last minute. We paid a little more than we thought we should and they accepted a little less than they thought they should get'. It does happen.

Sure it does, but it also doesn't happen either. Not going lose sleep over it one way or the other. They had all last year to get something done and it hasn't materialized, which clearly indicates to me that there is no deal to be had in this situation.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Sure it does, but it also doesn't happen either. Not going lose sleep over it one way or the other. They had all last year to get something done and it hasn't materialized, which clearly indicates to me that there is no deal to be had in this situation.

Don't disagree. I stopped losing sleep over it a long time ago. They will either get a last minute deal done or they won't. More likely not. Either way they have to move on.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Walsh did get his client to UFA.

Wasn't the real goal to get a multi year deal? His client risked a career ending injury because Walsh failed to secure him financial security.

The thing you fail to recognize is that both parties Walsh and Chevy realized there was no deal getting done. There were risks to both sides but they couldn't get a deal done ...everything you suggest (waiting another day or two pretending to negotiate) would have just been wasting time before the inevitable IMO.

 

[KingBogo]

OK but you still end up in exactly the same place as you are today. Walsh did not get what he wanted which was a long term deal on his terms.

I would say Walsh got his client exactly where he wanted him. The perfect place for an agent. Having his player become a UFA the absolute earliest possible under the CBA. No better way to maximize salary opportunities on an open market place. Now he can get his player a long term contract to the highest bidder rather then be stuck negotiating with one team. If it weren't Jets players (Frolik and Pavs before him) it is quite impressive watching Walsh operate.

 

[supersonic jet]

Wasn't the real goal to get a multi year deal? His client risked a career ending injury because Walsh failed to secure him financial security.

The thing you fail to recognize is that both parties Walsh and Chevy realized there was no deal getting done. There were risks to both sides but they couldn't get a deal done ...everything you suggest (waiting another day or two pretending to negotiate) would have just been wasting time before the inevitable IMO.

Fro will know exactly what Chevy was offering he will hear the offers and if Chevy s offer is equal to someone else's offer, and not going through insulting arbitration will go in his favor.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Wasn't the real goal to get a multi year deal? His client risked a career ending injury because Walsh failed to secure him financial security.

The thing you fail to recognize is that both parties Walsh and Chevy realized there was no deal getting done. There were risks to both sides but they couldn't get a deal done ...everything you suggest (waiting another day or two pretending to negotiate) would have just been wasting time before the inevitable IMO.

I never said it would make any difference at all. The thing is that we will never know. It might have and that is the thing that you fail to recognize.

 

[Aavco Cup]

I never said it would make any difference at all. The thing is that we will never know. It might have and that is the thing that you fail to recognize.

It might have if Chevy was willing to increase his offer. I don't think he was, at least not in the few hours left before the hearing.