Speculation: Jets Free Agents

[Digital Kid]

Nicolaj Ehlers. Alex Iafallo. Mason Appleton. Vlad Namestikov. Neal Pionk.

Those are the major UFA players.

Is there *any* indication of negotiations, possible signings for any of them?

I like Appleton's development, but the other four are extremely important pieces.

With this season going so well, trading them for picks or other players seems inconceivable.

It would be horrible if all those guys left.

I would anticipate Namestikov would be the one most eager to return because his career has rebounded in WPG.

My guess is GM Cheveldayoff is keeping things very low key so as to not take away the focus the players have for the Central Division playoff seeding, but wow, this is one of the biggest all-or-nothing gambles possibly in a looong time.

 

[Tasteless Beaver]

The Jets do everything very quietly, we won't hear much until deals are done. They are a deep team with lots in the pipeline, so that gives some flexibility on letting some of these guys walk if they want to play hardball. Everyone is replaceable except for Pionk, in my opinion, but with that said, Chevy is taking this lineup (and more) into the playoffs. We won't sell any of these as rentals.

Ehlers - his issue is that he's a playoff ghost. He'll never be a 1st liner in Winnipeg despite all the talent to do it, someone may pay him in UFA as such. I genuinely fear Montreal will overpay him massively, and that he'll go. We can hope that Lambert or Chibrikov can play the role.
Iafollo - I don't think he's worth $4m, but he fits the system well. May go UFA and loop back?
Appleton - likely gone, he's probably overpaid for his production and I don't think the team sees enough value. He wasn't good in Seattle, but carved out a good defensive role here. May find someone to pay him the same as he already makes?
Namestnikov - may want a pay bump due to being used as a productive 2C. He fits anywhere in the lineup and is good value, I think he signs again if his expectations are the same.
Pionk - has been a great fit since he was traded to Winnipeg. I don't see why he would want to leave, or why the team would let him walk. Most likely to get re-signed. DeMelo/Pionk/Salomonsson/Miller would be a good 1-4 lineup down the right next year.

 

[TheNumber4]

If I was WPG i'd be pretty nervous about that much potential turnover. But Chevy always surprises by doing a great job in a tough-to-GM market.

 

[Blitzkrug]

Ehlers is going to be the interesting one to watch because even with all the info/tape we have on him, I honestly couldn't tell you what he's actually worth as a UFA.

If I recall, the murmurs of him being unhappy started with feeling like he wasn't being given enough ice time last year. His ice time isn't up but his production is to the point he's on pace for a career best. He's also a fixture on the Jets top power play unit.

He's generally better at even strength.(54 of his 61 points last year came 5 on 5) But then he's also incredibly hot and cold to the point he's probably not a top line forward? Injuries are also a concern too. He's been in the league 9 seasons and has only played 82 games 3 times.

Is he worth more than he's making now? You could easily argue either. He's probably more of a complimentary player than driver so I'd be careful on the dollar amount

Winnipeg might be forced to choose between re-signing him or Connor given he's a UFA next summer. Don't envy Chevy at all in the coming months.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Ehlers is going to be the interesting one to watch because even with all the info/tape we have on him, I honestly couldn't tell you what he's actually worth as a UFA.

If I recall, the murmurs of him being unhappy started with feeling like he wasn't being given enough ice time last year. His ice time isn't up but his production is to the point he's on pace for a career best. He's also a fixture on the Jets top power play unit.

He's generally better at even strength.(54 of his 61 points last year came 5 on 5) But then he's also incredibly hot and cold to the point he's probably not a top line forward? Injuries are also a concern too. He's been in the league 9 seasons and has only played 82 games 3 times.

Is he worth more than he's making now? You could easily argue either. He's probably more of a complimentary player than driver so I'd be careful on the dollar amount

Winnipeg might be forced to choose between re-signing him or Connor given he's a UFA next summer. Don't envy Chevy at all in the coming months.

That isn’t a choice if it’s Connor or Ehlers. A) because the organization has shown a preference always playing him on top line. Schief loves playing with him.
He is more consistent in playoffs.
He stay healthy. He is also playing his best hockey in all 3 zones.
But, there is money by using pionk and iafallo’s money.
But, Pionk is having himself a hell of a season and been our 2nd best D.

 

[FlappyGiraffe]

None of these guys get traded imo, and I will be disappointed if I'm wrong.

Pionk is probably the biggest priority to get re-signed, followed by Ehlers (although we have 2 prospects ready to roll for the top 6 that could be replacements). Vilardi is an RFA too, that's probably going to be a huge contract to work out as well

 

[Wpgpage]

The Jets can not afford to bring everyone back but they can bring back the important ones.

Ehlers gets 8-8.5 even in a rising cap environment I can't see a team paying more for Ehlers that Guentzel just got. He seems happy here he's producing the noise about his ice time comes from outside the organization not inside. I think there's at least a 50% chance he's resigns I doubt a GM as risk adverse as Chevy would have started the season with him if he knew he has no chance of resigning him.

Pionk gets 6-7 that one is an easy re-sign he loves it here loves the org I'll be shocked if he makes it to July 1st.

Bringing back Elhers & Pionk means that 2 of Namestnikov, Appleton, Iffallo are gone and replaced with ELCs.

 

[Whis]

My guess is they will resign Pionk (lives in Minnesota) and Appleton (lives in Wisconsin) and the others will walk. They will try and keep Ehlers but he will leave for more money, opportunity, and warmer weather.

Iafallo is a good fit but makes to much and hasn't had the greatest opportunity. Vladdy, I could see going to market and potentially coming back to the Jets similar to what happened in 2023 but I think they will give their younger guys (Lambert/Chibrikov) his spot.

 

[voyageur]

My guess is they will resign Pionk (lives in Minnesota) and Appleton (lives in Wisconsin) and the others will walk. They will try and keep Ehlers but he will leave for more money, opportunity, and warmer weather.

Iafallo is a good fit but makes to much and hasn't had the greatest opportunity. Vladdy, I could see going to market and potentially coming back to the Jets similar to what happened in 2023 but I think they will give their younger guys (Lambert/Chibrikov) his spot.

I agree with all of this.

I put the numbers for re-signing, including RFAs as Vilardi 7.0, Pionk 6.5, Samberg 5.5, Appleton 3.0, Barron 1.75, Fleury 1.0. But I added Namestnikov at 3.5 million because I think the Jets would like a veteran buffer for the development of Yager and Lambert at C.

With those numbers I came up with a team Cap Hit that is around $83 million, well below the Cap. Less than where the Jets are at now. And the actual salary that pays $10 million to each of Helly and Scheif is almost evened out by the amount of salary the Jets are on the books for next year, with Morrissey and Lowry, 4.8 and 2.5m respectively. So there is definitely room to re-sign Ehlers at a high value. And essentially run the same team again next year, minus Iafallo who might seek out the waves and the money elsewhere. The Jets do have to budget for salary increases for Connor and Lowry down the road if they go that way, but they are well positioned with team friendly contracts to date.

 

[Digital Kid]

Wheeler and Schmidt's buyouts reduce/comes off the books so that $3.85 m will be helpful.

I hope the guys realize the grass isn't always greener elsewhere and that being on a winning team is a good place to be.

 

[Wpgpage]

I could also see a Miles Wood type of deal with Appleton longer term lower AAV. The organization and the coaching staff loves the guy, to the point that he plays way to much for his talent level. 14/6 or something similar, I wouldn't hate it.

 

[Kaiden Ghoul]

The Jets do everything very quietly, we won't hear much until deals are done. They are a deep team with lots in the pipeline, so that gives some flexibility on letting some of these guys walk if they want to play hardball. Everyone is replaceable except for Pionk, in my opinion, but with that said, Chevy is taking this lineup (and more) into the playoffs. We won't sell any of these as rentals.

Ehlers - his issue is that he's a playoff ghost. He'll never be a 1st liner in Winnipeg despite all the talent to do it, someone may pay him in UFA as such. I genuinely fear Montreal will overpay him massively, and that he'll go. We can hope that Lambert or Chibrikov can play the role.
Iafollo - I don't think he's worth $4m, but he fits the system well. May go UFA and loop back?
Appleton - likely gone, he's probably overpaid for his production and I don't think the team sees enough value. He wasn't good in Seattle, but carved out a good defensive role here. May find someone to pay him the same as he already makes?
Namestnikov - may want a pay bump due to being used as a productive 2C. He fits anywhere in the lineup and is good value, I think he signs again if his expectations are the same.
Pionk - has been a great fit since he was traded to Winnipeg. I don't see why he would want to leave, or why the team would let him walk. Most likely to get re-signed. DeMelo/Pionk/Salomonsson/Miller would be a good 1-4 lineup down the right next year.

We are way overcrowded on the wing in Montréal, i dont see Ehlers in our top 6 with Laine Demidov Caufield Slafkovsky, then we have Newhook on the 3rd line and some overpaid vet to complete

 

[Digital Kid]

I think the speculation about Ehlers and Montréal is because of Ehlers and Laine's friendship while in WPG.

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

I think the speculation about Ehlers and Montréal is because of Ehlers and Laine's friendship while in WPG.

...Ehlers and Laine on a line together...the LTIR Line...

 

[Pongs21]

Top Prioirty:
Pionk - Most likely to re-sign. If he makes it to FA, I can see WPG being out bid for his services.
Ehlers - 50/50 he re-signs. I don't think its about the money with him, more so where he fits and how he's been used. Would hate to see him leave.

Maybe:
Namestikov - He's been great as a placeholder in the top 6, but its a major area that the Jets need to upgrade on. He won't displace Lowry from the 3C spot. So he'll be back to 4C duties and floating up and down the line-up when needed. Depends on what kind of money he's looking for. If he's looking to cash in, I doubt it's with the Jets, but if he's willing to sign a reasonable, shorter term (2-3 year) contract as a utility guy because he likes the fit in WPG, I could see that being a possibility.
Appleton - We have loads of young talent that can take over his spot, however that being said, he's also been a big part of one of, if not the best 3rd line in the league. Multiple coaches have kept this line together and Chevy is also very loyal. Wouldn't surprise me to see him back.

Likely gone:
Iafallo: Has been good, but makes too much money for the bottom 6/4th line and his best financial interest would be to go to FA. Could see the Jets circle back to him if some of the above players aren't resigned, and if there's mutual interest.

Jets likely have an idea who is staying and are probably keeping things private to not disrupt the players who may or may not be negotiating. There's also possible additions that the Jets are working on through trade which could have implications on the cap. Viladi and Samberg are also RFA's, with Connor and Lowry being UFA's the year after. I don't see all of them re-signing, so there will be some roster turnover.