Zhamnov5GoalGame
Former Director of GDT Operations
And there it is.
My last in person playoff win.
The boys are going to break the drought for me tomorrow.
Easter Dinner plans freed up a ticket for me.
Here we go!
Series Discussion: Jets (C1) vs Blues (WC2) - Western Conference First Round
- Thread starter Hank Chinaski
- Start date
And there it is.
My last in person playoff win.
The boys are going to break the drought for me tomorrow.
Easter Dinner plans freed up a ticket for me.
Here we go!
Skidooboy
Registered User
- Mar 10, 2010
- 34,987
- 37,364
Will be at the game today with my son which will be fun.
Not sure why but usually when the playoffs start I am so jacked up for the white out but I feel different today and this post season (so far). I don’t care about the party or the atmosphere (yet), I am there for the hockey game. Not sure why but I feel much more businesslike about today and this post season. I am not trying to be a buzz kill at all, because I am looking forward to today. One game at a time this spring.
GJG
Not sure why but usually when the playoffs start I am so jacked up for the white out but I feel different today and this post season (so far). I don’t care about the party or the atmosphere (yet), I am there for the hockey game. Not sure why but I feel much more businesslike about today and this post season. I am not trying to be a buzz kill at all, because I am looking forward to today. One game at a time this spring.
GJG
I'm also going to be there and feel much the same way. Not really worried or stressed like past years.
- Mar 10, 2010
- 34,987
- 37,364
Feeling like you and I are going to get to see some OT hockey today.
See you guys on the other side friends. Whoever wins has to destroy The Avs/Stars next round tho. 
CorgisPer60
Barking at the net
Even being down by one going into the third period, I had no panic in me. This team has earned this level of comfort. Send the Blues packing.
B33R LEAGUE
The GifMan
- May 19, 2021
- 3,044
- 11,578
Through 2 games…
Jets are dominating the total 5-on-5 xG: 3.74 to 1.89, for an xG% of 66.5
High-danger scoring chances are 20-7 Jets: 8-4 in game 1, and 12-3 in game 2
Blues have only 1 goal at 5-on-5 so far, by Sundqvist after Schenn kicked the puck to him in the slot
Jets have scored 5 goals at 5-on-5: Anderson-Dolan, Iafallo, Connor, Scheifele and Connor again. Only Connor’s one-timer GWG in game 1 wasn’t considered a high-danger chance given the shot location (and it should’ve been given the puck movement and goalie position). The other Jets goals were all from right in tight.
The 5-on-5 heat map for the 2 games combined shows how heavily the ice has been tilted in one direction:
Looking at just the two 3rd periods, the total xG is 1.54 to 0.24 for the Jets (xG% 86.5) and high-danger chances are 6-0. So the Jets have been able to throttle the Blues when it matters, controlling the neutral zone and entries at both blue lines.
Including power play time (Blues have 7 power plays, Jets 6) doesn’t make it look any better for St Louis
All situations total xG is 6.96 to 2.77 for Winnipeg (xG% 71.5), and high-danger chances are 25-8
Blues have outscored the Jets 3-1 on the PP but that’s mostly down to finishing, not shot quality — Jets have had the better chances there too
Overall, the Blues have outscored their xG by more than one goal through 120 minutes, but are still down 7-4 on total goals, and 2-0 in the series. They managed to pick some corners up high on Hellebuyck on mid-range shots, and Binnington has made a bunch of saves on grade A chances, or the first two games wouldn’t have been close.
Jets just need to keep this up. They’ve been the better team.
Jets are dominating the total 5-on-5 xG: 3.74 to 1.89, for an xG% of 66.5
High-danger scoring chances are 20-7 Jets: 8-4 in game 1, and 12-3 in game 2
Blues have only 1 goal at 5-on-5 so far, by Sundqvist after Schenn kicked the puck to him in the slot
Jets have scored 5 goals at 5-on-5: Anderson-Dolan, Iafallo, Connor, Scheifele and Connor again. Only Connor’s one-timer GWG in game 1 wasn’t considered a high-danger chance given the shot location (and it should’ve been given the puck movement and goalie position). The other Jets goals were all from right in tight.
The 5-on-5 heat map for the 2 games combined shows how heavily the ice has been tilted in one direction:
Looking at just the two 3rd periods, the total xG is 1.54 to 0.24 for the Jets (xG% 86.5) and high-danger chances are 6-0. So the Jets have been able to throttle the Blues when it matters, controlling the neutral zone and entries at both blue lines.
Including power play time (Blues have 7 power plays, Jets 6) doesn’t make it look any better for St Louis
All situations total xG is 6.96 to 2.77 for Winnipeg (xG% 71.5), and high-danger chances are 25-8
Blues have outscored the Jets 3-1 on the PP but that’s mostly down to finishing, not shot quality — Jets have had the better chances there too
Overall, the Blues have outscored their xG by more than one goal through 120 minutes, but are still down 7-4 on total goals, and 2-0 in the series. They managed to pick some corners up high on Hellebuyck on mid-range shots, and Binnington has made a bunch of saves on grade A chances, or the first two games wouldn’t have been close.
Jets just need to keep this up. They’ve been the better team.
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jokesondee
I’m not fat. I’m cultivating mass.
ICdave
Registered User
Now there are some statscult charts i can get behind!
Dom’s model now has the Jets at 89% to win the series and as the favorites for the Cup at 20%. Hurricanes are next at 14%:
Coming into the playoffs, he had the Jets at 68% to win the first round and 15% favorites for the Cup:
Moneypuck meanwhile has the Jets at 87.2% to close out the Blues and 12.9% to win it all, 2nd favorites behind the Hurricanes at 14.2%:
Coming into the playoffs, he had the Jets at 68% to win the first round and 15% favorites for the Cup:
Moneypuck meanwhile has the Jets at 87.2% to close out the Blues and 12.9% to win it all, 2nd favorites behind the Hurricanes at 14.2%:
Channelcat
Unhinged user
I'm feeling pretty good about our chances in Stl. Blues will obviously come out flying on thursday, but Jets road record is comparable to their home record and I expect a calm confident bunch going into STL. I thought they gripped the sticks somewhat on both home starts, so maybe they'll be even better on the road 
. Get a split and we are on our way!
. Get a split and we are on our way!
voyageur
Grizzled
- Jul 10, 2011
- 9,851
- 13,566
Getting Vilardi on the PP could be a difference maker if the Jets not only win 5 on 5 but special teams too.I'm feeling pretty good about our chances in Stl. Blues will obviously come out flying on thursday, but Jets road record is comparable to their home record and I expect a calm confident bunch going into STL. I thought they gripped the sticks somewhat on both home starts, so maybe they'll be even better on the road
So far you have to give credit to Scotty. He's made subtle changes that have produced goals. Pionk with Morrissey in game 1, Perfetti out there with the big guns in game 2. He's prepared the team differently for this year's playoff run.
I honestly think moving Nino up to line 2, in Ehlers spot, has given the Jets a positive look. That line has some bite now, on the boards. Looks similar to all the other lines.
Getting Tanev up on the forecheck with Lowry, and the way he has defended in his own zone, has been a positive.
Defense has held up, where last year they looked discombobulated and out of sync with forwards. Credit to Chynoweth/Arniel.
I think Scotty has prepared the team all year for this moment, and it shows. The leaders are leading.
It helps to have a matchup where the best forwards and the best defenseman are on our side. That wouldn't be the case against Colorado. So the effort would have to be ratcheted up to compete.
A game 3 victory seems possible to me, because the team understands they can't take their foot off the pedal. Getting some rest will go a long way to going the distance.
Channelcat
Unhinged user
Arneil has been a revelation for me. I've followed the guy for 40 years and didn't realize he had this sort of hockey acumen. Just listening to his interviews is so impressive. I was definitely wrong about the guy
Zhamnov5GoalGame
Former Director of GDT Operations
I wouldn't say the 3rd period goal was a coaching adjustment.
Iafallo made a play near the bench and changed early and Perfetti by happy accident got some O-Zone time with Scheifele and Connor and it worked out beautifully. Watching live I did wonder if they had gone out as a line but upon reviewing it was just part of a line change.
If we find ourselves down 2 goals or something I think that trio would be a good change up for a couple of shifts that might pay dividends.
Kind of like when Ehlers is put out with them. Now we just need to get Cole his first playoff goal!!!!
He puts Perfetti out with Mark and Kyle the first shift after a successful PK kill as he has Iafallo killing penalties. So he is purposefully playing them as a unit in certain situations. But yes the winning goal was off a partial line change.
Nolan Giesbrecht
Registered User
- Jun 14, 2016
- 119
- 153
Completely agree. I love Morrissey and Ehlers, but I am really pulling for Perfetti. He’s such a fun player to watch when he’s on. And he’s “on” a lot more often lately. I think he’s going to come up big in some important games these playoffs.
ICdave
Registered User
Arniel confirmed them as the taxi squad. Said they'll be used during the playoffs in a variety of roles.
