Jets Advanced Stats thread

[JetsFan815]

The main reason for the Jets recent slump in their 5 on 5 play seems to be the 3rd line and to a lesser extent the 2nd line. Top line seems to be doing what they always do... a bit under break even and the 4th line's numbers haven't fallen much either. It is the 3rd line whose numbers have fallen off the cliff from being high-50s low 60s in these metrics to mid 40s. Jets relied a lot on that line to boost their 5v5 numbers so it makes sense that them falling off in this manner seems to have a big impact on the team.

I wonder if it is time to break up that Lowry line and flip Nino and Iafallo... that move might help both lines.

 

[10Ducky10]

I wanna see Nino with Scheif and Perfetti but that'll never happen.

 

[Whileee]

One thing to consider about the Jets at this point... they have had one of the toughest schedules so far, in terms of strength of opponents.

Only the LA Kings have an easier remaining schedule than the Jets...

Below is a tracking of the Jets games so far, based on preseason ranking of team quality by @HockeyViz. Some teams have been stronger than predicted (like the Yotes), while others have been weaker. Still, you can see that the Jets have had a heavy diet of top-ranked teams so far. They are treading water vs. the top teams, and feasting on the lower teams, so far.

 

[JetsFan815]

Check in on the lines (evolving wild data):

	CF%	xGF%	GF%
Ehlers-Scheifele-Vilardi	65.03	58.29	84.35
Perfetti-Vlad-Iafallo	57.63	56.73	64.33
Nino-Lowry-Appleton	49.08	51.45	63.92
Barron-Gus-AJF	60.45	57.59	49.74

That second line doesn't look that impressive by the eye test but their numbers have been decent. Curious to see if they can keep it up.

The 3rd line while looking OK in aggregate hasn't been great for a couple of months

Since Nov 1st they are 46.22 CF% and 47.22 xGF%

 

[surixon]

Check in on the lines (evolving wild data):

	CF%	xGF%	GF%
Ehlers-Scheifele-Vilardi	65.03	58.29	84.35
Perfetti-Vlad-Iafallo	57.63	56.73	64.33
Nino-Lowry-Appleton	49.08	51.45	63.92
Barron-Gus-AJF	60.45	57.59	49.74

That second line doesn't look that impressive by the eye test but their numbers have been decent. Curious to see if they can keep it up.

The 3rd line while looking OK in aggregate hasn't been great for a couple of months

Since Nov 1st they are 46.22 CF% and 47.22 xGF%

Yeah the third line has cooled down quite a bit. Top line is on fire and will likely cool down over the next little while.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Yeah the third line has cooled down quite a bit. Top line is on fire and will likely cool down over the next little while.

I think 55-58% xGF is sustainable for them.

 

[surixon]

I think 55-58% xGF is sustainable for them.

Yes but an 84% Gf rate is not.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Yes but an 84% Gf rate is not.

Oh yeah. For sure.

 

[Weezeric]

Check in on the lines (evolving wild data):

	CF%	xGF%	GF%
Ehlers-Scheifele-Vilardi	65.03	58.29	84.35
Perfetti-Vlad-Iafallo	57.63	56.73	64.33
Nino-Lowry-Appleton	49.08	51.45	63.92
Barron-Gus-AJF	60.45	57.59	49.74

That second line doesn't look that impressive by the eye test but their numbers have been decent. Curious to see if they can keep it up.

The 3rd line while looking OK in aggregate hasn't been great for a couple of months

Since Nov 1st they are 46.22 CF% and 47.22 xGF%

I think you have to take into account that they are getting slammed into the defensive zone (35% offensive zone starts) and taking on tough matchups. If you can come out at 50-50 from that, it’s a huge win.

 

[JetsFan815]

I think you have to take into account that they are getting slammed into the defensive zone (35% offensive zone starts) and taking on tough matchups. If you can come out at 50-50 from that, it’s a huge win.

Their defensive zone starts are only ~13% though, Scheifele has 10%. Most of their shifts are on the fly shifts (~52%) or neutral zone starts (25%). In December that line has been ~43% Corsi and xG and 25% actual goals at 5v5 (1 For, 3 Against), so as of late they haven't been close to breaking even whether we look at fancy stats or actual goals. They gotta do something to get that group out of their funk, they are still decent defensively but I feel their difficulty with their transition game as of late is giving them less of a chance to score and also spend more time in their own zone and thus affecting their defensive numbers.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

So... I'm starting to believe that Lowry might just be our best player. (That's not a goalie)

Sure, he doesn't put up points because points are overrated in this case. But he does so much effective things for the team that it's not even funny. Best player, but doesn't put up points is pretty much his only downside.

I was watching his highlights just now, and realized he's a lot better than people think he is.

 

[ghyrti]

While watching the Dec 27 Chicago game with a few people I said near the end of the 2nd period that based on how the game was going a 2-1 OT loss was the best case scenario as we weren't putting the 5v5 chances away. End of game the 5v5 xGF was 3.71 and actual was 1. Wanted to look to see if we had won any similar games this year with that big of a difference and the Oilers October 21 seems to be the largest difference at 1.23 goals scored less than expected.

Jets record comparing 5v5 xGF to 5v5 GF

When GF more than .5 over xGF is 13-1-1 (loss was Dallas Nov 11)
When GF within +/- 0.5 xGF is 5-2-0
When GF less then -0.5 xGF is 2-6-3

 

[SUX2BU]

We’re 28th in face off wins at 47.2

Jets legends named Kevin:
Kevin Hayes is 9th at 57.9
Kevin Stenlund is tied for 27th at 54.4

Hell, Blake Wheeler on a part time basis has a 64.0 winning percentage

We have to improve at the dot. As an ex-centre man, I can do better than 47.2

 

[WolfHouse]

We’re 28th in face off wins at 47.2

Jets legends named Kevin:
Kevin Hayes is 9th at 57.9
Kevin Stenlund is tied for 27th at 54.4

Hell, Blake Wheeler on a part time basis has a 64.0 winning percentage

We have to improve at the dot. As an ex-centre man, I can do better than 47.2

I really thought we should have left Wheeler as our 2C after he filled in... we did well.

Hayes was a good pickup but something was wrong with Maurice/Wheeler

He'd be a great 2C at 3.5m

 

[DRW204]

Check in on the lines (evolving wild data):

	CF%	xGF%	GF%
Ehlers-Scheifele-Vilardi	65.03	58.29	84.35
Perfetti-Vlad-Iafallo	57.63	56.73	64.33
Nino-Lowry-Appleton	49.08	51.45	63.92
Barron-Gus-AJF	60.45	57.59	49.74

That second line doesn't look that impressive by the eye test but their numbers have been decent. Curious to see if they can keep it up.

The 3rd line while looking OK in aggregate hasn't been great for a couple of months

Since Nov 1st they are 46.22 CF% and 47.22 xGF%

Middle 6 has been underwhelming for a while. Luckily the top line has been on fire in the meantime.

 

[NA Hockey]

https://x.com/nickterhaar1989/status/1740522454525571280?s=46&t=6x49K_YYbgDsYpzw6IS91g

 

[Buffdog]

https://x.com/nickterhaar1989/status/1740522454525571280?s=46&t=6x49K_YYbgDsYpzw6IS91g

I think the issue is acceleration, not top speed

 

[NA Hockey]

I think the issue is acceleration, not top speed

Agreed. It's funny though that people say that he is a bad skater. In fact his edges are elite, his top speed is at least average and it looks like above average in his own age group. The place where he needs to improve is his first three steps.

 

[DRW204]

looking at money puck a bit this morning

in total all-strengths goals-saved-above-expected, Helle is +10 on 2nd place.... that's as large of a gap between 2nd and 15th NHL Goalie Statistics

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Jets forward player cards post trade deadline sorted by predicted lines.

 

[DRW204]

indirectly Jets related

How use of analytics is part of Colorado Avalanche’s secret sauce: “Numbers are unemotional”

For the Avalanche, it’s not just the quality of information from the four-person team on the analytics staff, but how it gets communicated and circulated throughout the organization that help…

www.denverpost.com

 

[DRW204]

Jfresh release a post-FA standing projections based on rosters now. probably still some movements here and there for teams.

this was last year Oct-2023